BA.2.86 Shows Just How Risky Slacking Off on COVID Monitoring is

upstart writes:

The variant has grabbed attention, but with such limited data, the risk is unclear:

A remarkably mutated coronavirus variant classified as BA.2.86 seized scientists' attention last week as it popped up in four countries, including the US.

So far, the overall risk posed by the new subvariant is unclear. It's possible it could lead to a new wave of infection; it's also possible (perhaps most likely) it could fizzle out completely. Scientists simply don't have enough information to know. But, what is very clear is that the current precipitous decline in coronavirus variant monitoring is extremely risky.

[...] What grabbed quick attention is BA.2.86's large number of mutations, particularly in the genetic code for its critical spike protein-the protein the virus uses to latch onto and enter human cells. BA.2.86 has 34 mutations in its spike gene relative to BA.2, the omicron sublineage from which it descended. This number of spike mutations between BA.2.86 and BA.2 is chillingly similar to the number of mutations seen between the original omicron (BA.1) and the ancestral Wuhan strain. The evolutionary jump from Wuhan to BA.1 caused a towering peak of COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations in early 2022. But, experts are skeptical that BA.2.86 could produce a rivaling wave, given the extensive levels of immunity in the population from both repeat vaccinations and infections.

[...] Perhaps the biggest question left unanswered about BA.2.86 is how well it will spread relative to other variants in circulation, namely XBB.1.5, EG.5, FL.1.5.1, and others. For BA.2.86 to cause its own wave, it must couple its antibody-escaping abilities with changes that make it more easily transmissible than other variants. So far, there's simply not enough data to know if this is the case or not.

Still, experts like Bloom are not alarmed. "The most likely scenario is this variant is less transmissible than current dominant variants, and so never spreads widely. This is the fate of most new SARS-CoV-2 variants," he wrote in his analysis.

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