UK’s growth is silver lining – and clouds suggest recession looms | Larry Elliott

The chancellor says the economy is resilient but forward-looking indicators suggest otherwise

Manufacturing is struggling and house prices are sliding. There is precious little money in the kitty for pre-election tax cuts. Inflation is proving hard to shift and strikes by hospital doctors and railway workers are set to continue. The Bank of England is slowly throttling the economy with its increases in the cost of borrowing.

Having dodged the recession bullet last year, there are signs the UK may not do so again in the coming months. Any good news from lower energy prices is outweighed by the impact of higher interest rates, the full effects of which have yet to be felt. It is a rotten prospect for a government that is 20 points behind in the opinion polls and has to fight an election by January 2025 at the latest.