Thinking small may get Labour into No 10. It could also stop it staying there | John Harris

Unlike Brown and Blair, who made bold changes early on, Starmer seems determined to offer as little as possible

In about 10 days' time, we are told, the deadline will fall on policy submissions for Labour's draft manifesto. Reports over the weekend have highlighted senior party people insisting that a May election is still a big possibility, and fretting about a contest that could be called as early as 16 March. And besides, Keir Starmer's accelerated timetable suits his marketing as the kind of leader keen on preparedness, prudence, and technocratic efficiency.

At which point, an inevitable warning: the content of Labour's plan for government, in all likelihood, is not going to be terribly spectacular. To no one's surprise, Starmer's advisers have been briefing journalists that financial discipline will run through the document". Proposals that have come out of Labour's policy forums will seemingly be ruled in or out depending on whether they can stand up to Tory attacks. The only extra taxes in play - on non-doms, private schools and private equity dealmakers" - will raise less than 10bn a year, which also puts a lid on any big policy ambitions. To cap it all, after months of briefings about its possible demise, the party's plan to spend 28bn a year on green investment may well be even further diluted and delayed.

John Harris is a Guardian columnist