Bank of England ‘could lower interest rates fairly soon’, as City expects only three cuts this year – as it happened

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news, as hawkish BoE policymaker looks for signs that rates needn't rise further

Professor Costas Milas, of University of Liverpool's management school, has analysed how geopolitical risks and oil prices have influenced UK monetary policy over the decades, through higher inflation and lower output.

He tells us:

MPC member Haskel is (arguably) partly' correct to wait until further evidence shows that inflation risks are waning.

My colleague, Mike Ellington and I assess just that. We look at the impact of geopolitical risks on the UK economy. We find that geopolitical risks and higher oil prices depress UK output and that oil prices lift UK inflation. So, there is a subtle' tradeoff between higher inflation and lower output in making interest rate decisions.