Rishi Sunak’s election call means he thought the worst was yet to come

The polls show no sign of narrowing and insiders believe an IMF warning of a 30bn hole in the finances was weighing heavy

• UK general election - latest updates
• News: Sunak calls election for 4 July

Rishi Sunak took the final decision to call a summer election on two key statistics - a drop in inflation and falling net migration - but Conservative insiders also hope that the surprise July poll will put new scrutiny on Labour's plans.

Sunak and his closest advisers believe their best chances of success lies in setting a clear distinction between a long-term plan that is beginning to bear fruit and Labour's ideas - which they want to put under the election spotlight at a moment where the opposition could be caught off guard.