Ipsos poll shows just how deep a hole the Conservatives are in

Model shows party losing seats to Labour, Reform UK and Lib Dems amid dissatisfaction with government

• Labour landslide projected with dozens of Tory-held seats on knife-edge

The findings from today's Ipsos MRP poll show in no uncertain terms just how much trouble the Conservatives are in. Our model has the Conservatives winning just 115 seats, with Labour on 453. To compare, in 1997 Tony Blair's Labour party won 418 and John Major's Conservatives 178. On these results, the Conservatives could be heading for their worst general election defeat in modern political history.

There is often a lot of mystery surrounding multi-level regression and post-stratification (MRP) in terms of what it is and how it works. In simple terms, we run a large-scale survey of almost 20,000 people on our online KnowledgePanel, recruited according to gold-standard random probability methods. This gives us a granular picture of how different demographic groups are likely to vote across the country. Then, because we know what proportion live in different constituencies, we can project the probabilities for how individual seats will vote, within certain confidence ranges.