Polls predict a Labour win, but what does this mean for voter turnout?
With result appearing to be sure thing, voters may decide to stay home or wavering Tories could drive changes in turnout
The devil may yet be in the detail, but the polls are clear about one thing: Labour is heading for a large, possibly very large, majority when results come in on 5 July. But what might this mean for turnout at the general election? Does a result that seems to be a foregone conclusion mean people might think their vote doesn't matter?
On a winter's day in December 2019, turnout was 67%. Down a little on 2017, but substantially up on a low of 59.4% for the UK general election in 2001. With an allegedly uninspiring campaign, a clear signal of the winning party and high levels of voter distrust, some have suggested that a summer's day in 2024 might not tempt voters to the polling station.
Paula Surridge is professor of political sociology at the University of Bristol
Continue reading...