Small parties’ surge offers opportunity and risk for Labour as ‘big two’ vote share poised to fall

The failings of the first past the post system are exposed amid an unprecedented fracturing of political support that signals dangers for the winning party

Labour's advance and the Tories' collapse look set to break records on 4 July, but so does the silent surge for someone else". The combined Labour and Conservative share of the vote looks set to be the lowest ever in a universal franchise election. And this unprecedented fracturing of the vote leaves the fate of all parties, big and small, more dependent than ever on electoral geography and a fickle first past the post electoral system.

The Liberal Democrats understand the vagaries of this system better than most. No party has won so many votes, so often, with so little to show for it. The cruel fate of the Lib Dems was to be everyone's silver medallist in a system where second gets nothing. Over 40 years between the Liberal breakthrough of 1974 and the Lib Dem collapse of 2015, the third party averaged 17% of the vote but just 5% of the seats.