An early scan of 2 Line ridership

Commenter Lazarus pointed out that Sound Transit has released 2 Line (East Link Starter Line) ridership figures on its dashboard. Although there is no direct filter for a drill-down to just the 2 Line, one can multi-select the East Link stations by holding CTRL (on a PC) or (on a Mac).

Four incomplete months worth of data is insufficient to draw out meaningful observations but it is evident that the early novelty of rapid transit on the Eastside slowly wore off through late Spring into Summer. However, it is interesting to note that those declines were largely limited to weekend ridership, which supports the narrative that recreational rides are the ones that have waned the most in number.

When it comes to average weekday ridership, there is a more stable picture. Both May and July featured around 5,800 daily boardings, sandwiching a modest spike in June. Sound Transit's earliest forecast for the starter line was 6,000 average daily boardings, which was later adjusted down to a range of 4,000 to 5,700. All in all, early performance is within the realm of what was forecasted.

One lingering curiosity of mine has been the cannibalization of other services, namely the 550 and the B Line, given the overlapping service area. Although there is not yet July data for ST Express, 550 ridership has not declined whatsoever since the beginning of the year. This suggests that Link has poached a negligible number of riders, if any, within the short South Bellevue-Downtown Bellevue commuter market.

ST Express 550 ridership for 2024

When it comes to the B Line, there is also not much to suggest a significant impact from the 2 Line opening as average weekday boardings have roughly held steady around 4,700-4,800. It is worth noting that 2024 ridership exceeded 2023 ridership in the early part of the year, but 2023 saw a summer spike that has not yet materialized in 2024. Whether this is due to the 2 Line opening or some other effect won't be clear until we have a longer span of data.

King County Metro B Line ridership

The 2 Line is an obviously superior option if one is traveling between Downtown Bellevue, Overlake Village, and Redmond Technology stations, but I suspect that the bulk of B Line ridership actually lies within the NE 8th, Crossroads, and the NE 156th corridors. I surmised as much last year:

Given that the rest of the B-Line functions more as a local service to connect Crossroads to both downtown and Overlake/Microsoft, I don't anticipate substantial shifts in ridership even after the ELSL opens. With its congestion-free operation, East Link is likely to be much more competitive with the longer-distance Bellevue-Redmond commuter markets.

Ultimately, ridership trends are just that: trends, which need time to tell the full story. Until we get to a longer horizon, it's safe to say that the early numbers of the 2 Line are promising and bode well for what we hope is the full extension to Seattle next year.