Sky-high US-China tariffs are a mutual trade embargo that will hurt both sides

Effects could tip one into recession and undermine other's fragile economy but prospects for rapprochement are not hopeless

• Trump says exemptions on smartphones, electronics will be short-lived

Sky-high tariffs that now hang heavily over US-China trade mean, effectively, that they have declared a trade embargo on each other, normally an act of war. The economic consequences for both will hurt.

The US's $150bn (113bn) or so of exports to China will fall away quickly, while China's $440bn worth of exports to the US may drop by up to 75% over the next 18 months, unless some sort of negotiation happens. No one will be spared the effects.