The polls point to a Labor win, but its primary vote is barely moving – can both things be true?

Labor's confidence going into Saturday's election is tempered by gnawing anxiety about the underlying polling data

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Australia's major parties are headed for a historically low primary vote, continuing a downward trend of several decades, according to the latest from Guardian Australia's poll tracker. Labor leads the Coalition 51.5-48.5 on the two-party-preferred measure according to our latest average, although there is still uncertainty in the polling.

The two-party-preferred vote has been trending towards a repeat of the last election, but this masks a more than two-point primary vote drop for both major parties. The votes lost by the major parties have gone everywhere", according to pollsters who spoke to Guardian Australia. Our model estimates the support for independents and minor parties is four points higher than at the last election.

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