Five charts that explain the global economic outlook for 2026

Inflation is predicted to cool but uncertainty over AI-driven growth and trade policy poses risks in the year ahead

The global economy proved to be more resilient in 2025 than had been feared, despite severe headwinds that ranged from Donald Trump's trade war to geopolitical tensions and the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East.

Entering the new year, the hope is that the worst of the recent inflation shock has passed, as the world's most powerful central banks lower interest rates. However, the pre-Covid age of rock-bottom borrowing costs is a distant memory, global growth is slowing and conditions remain fragile.