Seattle Transit Measure: Performance Since Passed (2020 to Now)

Since 2024, the operational expenses for both streetcar routes have been primarily funded by the Seattle Transit Measure. (Stephen De Vight)

This is part two of a three-part series investigating city-funded bus service in Seattle. Part 1 covered the Seattle Transportation Benefit District (STBD) from 2014 to early 2020. This article covers its successor, named the Seattle Transit Measure (STM) from 2020 to present day.

By early 2020, the STBD had transformed Seattle into a truly transit-accessible city. With Sound Transit's self-proclaimed exciting period' of annual light rail expansions approaching quickly, county leaders saw an opportunity to undo the failures of 2014 and provide better bus service to all of King County, not just Seattle.

King County Floats Measure, Pandemic Hits

In February 2020, King County Council unveiled a proposal to utilize King County's own Transportation Benefit District to levy a countywide 0.2% sales tax increase to fund additional transit.

Unlike the failed 2014 measure, revenues would go exclusively to Metro and focus primarily on service expansion. Seattle's existing investments would also be funded under the assumption that a county measure would eclipse Seattle's. Seattle would lose its freedom to dictate service investments, but planning and funding would be re-regionalized, ending years of a pay to play' system where Seattle experienced higher service levels than Metro could provide on its own.

Unfortunately on February 29, 2020, the first death from COVID-19 in the United States was announced in Washington. Soon after, then-Governor Jay Inslee announced a statewide state of emergency. By March 13, all schools statewide were ordered closed and Metro reported a 45% reduction in ridership.

All signs indicated that a county-wide transit measure was poorly timed and by March 16, County Councilmember Claudia Balducci announced that King County would no longer proceed with a ballot measure to increase bus service.

Seattle Goes Alone, Again

In response, Seattle would need to renew the STBD, which was then funded by a 0.1% sales tax and $60 car tab. The constitutionality of Initiative 976, Tim Eyman's latest effort to cap car tabs at $30, was still uncertain and in court leaving car tabs off the table as a funding mechanism for renewal.

In July of 2020, Mayor Jenny Durkan unveiled a proposal for a reduced STBD of only a 0.1% sales tax, no car tabs, and lasting just 4 years. This would result in STBD funding being cut by almost 50%. Councilmember Tammy Morales proposed increasing the sales tax to 0.2% to backfill the lost car tab revenue but ultimately City Council President Lorena Gonzalez negotiated the sales tax to 0.15% and extended the levy back to six years.

Despite Durkan's concerns, the STBD renewal passed in what was then the largest electoral victory margin in Seattle history, 80.3% to 19.7%, with voters rejecting austerity in an election buoyed by massive turnout in a Presidential election year.

To distinguish between the voter approved spending to fund transit and the legal framework used for it (a transportation benefit district) which also funded road maintenance, the STBD was rebranded as the Seattle Transit Measure" or STM" to make clear what voters were funding.

Tim Eyman Loses, Again

In October 2020, the Washington Supreme Court struck down Initiative 976, ruling it violated the state constitution's single subject rule." Previously-frozen car tab funding was returned to the STBD's reserve account but the ruling was too late to include renewal of car tab funding in the 2020 STM.

Without renewal of the STBD's additional $60 VLF, the city's VLF decreased in 2021 from $80 to the 2014 rate of $20 a year. Since then, the Seattle City Council has used their councilmanic' authority (i.e. without voter approval) to increase the city's car tabs to $50 to fund roadway maintenance and preservation.

The STM Begins, Very Frequent Transit Network Ends

Voters passed the STM in midst of the largest change in travel behavior in modern American history. A massive budget deficit fueled by decreased fare and sales tax revenue prompted Metro to make large service cuts just to stay above water.

At the same time, despite increasing Seattle's sales tax, without funding from car tabs, the STM renewal decreased revenues approximately 30%. Further, while over 90% of STBD revenues were used to purchase transit service, only about half of STM revenue has been used to fund bus service, significantly decreasing the number of service hours purchased by Seattle.

The number of service hours funded by the City of Seattle from SDOT's annual reports. In 2020, the STBD was renewed as the STM and spending on transit service decreased.

Due to all these factors, the Very Frequent Transit Network (every 10 min service all day) that 70% of the city was within walking distance of in 2019 collapsed. Routes 40, 41, 44, 48, 65, 67, and 70 ran every 10-minutes or better in early 2020 and now don't.

Today only 53% of Seattle is within walking distance of every 10 min or better service. And when Judkins Park station, Pinehurst station, and the J Line open, only 55% of the city will have the luxury of very frequent transit service, far from two-thirds of the city as was in the late 2010s.

Percent of Seattleites within a 10 minute walk to transit service every 10 minutes or better all day on weekdays over time.Since 2020: Recovery, Constraints

While the original STBD was focused almost exclusively on purchasing bus service, the STM authorized more spending on transportation access programs (including subsidized ORCA cards) and emerging needs" intended to mitigate the effects of the pandemic and West Seattle Bridge closure. The text voters approved mandates that a majority of STM spending be dedicated for transit operations, but the STM only achieves this goal by including its new funding of streetcar operations.

STM tax revenues have increased about 40% since its passage as Seattle's economy recovers from the pandemic. But increasing service has been severely limited by Metro's operator shortage. Ethan Bergerson, Press Secretary at SDOT said the city has purchased the maximum amount of service King County Metro has had the capacity to provide each year since the Seattle Transit Measure began in 2021".

Inflation-adjusted STBD / STM spending over time by category.

Due to Metro's operator shortage and Seattle's inability to purchase additional service, the STM has generated more revenue than it could spend. Rather than send revenue to its reserve fund, City Council has used the STM to fund other priorities not included in the original measure approved by voters by expanding the scope and size of the capital projects bucket to include far more than transit spot improvements. Funding projects like $12M in bridge maintenance, repaving projects, pedestrian and bicycle infrastructure, and backfilling 2015 Transportation Levy promises like Rainier's bus lanes and RapidRides G and J.

The Emerging Needs' category, originally intended to mitigate the closure of the West Seattle Bridge and the Covid pandemic, now funds Transit Ambassadors, free bikeshare rides, and Transit GO rewards. In 2024, a Material Change to the STM allowed funding permitting work for light rail expansion and opened the door for the STM to directly fund light rail construction, an effectively infinitely sized bucket. The STM's 2025 budget also started funding transit security.

The biggest item in the 2026 budget not present in 2020 is funding the operations of the Seattle Streetcar, which is about 15% of all STM expenditures. Historically funded by fare revenue, Seattle's Commercial Parking Tax, and Sound Transit as mitigation for not building light rail in First Hill, the streetcar's operations are now funded by the STM with a small contribution from Metro. With the Center City Connector Dead", how to and if we should continue funding the streetcar, which costs about 60% more per service hour to operate than buses and is already diverting STM money away from bus upgrades, will certainly dominate discussions of the STM renewal this fall.

Current Trajectory: Service Expansion, Unsustainable Spending

Since the creation of the STBD in 2015, King County Metro has struggled to deliver the number of service hours Seattle has been interested in purchasing. Due to this, a significant reserve fund has developed, totaling over a year of tax revenue. 2025 and 2026 will include significant increases in transit service. But that expansion will be funded in part by depleting the STM's reserve fund. The fund was never intended to be so large and should be spent down but now that Metro can provide more service, the STM is spending more than it brings in. Without an increase in STM revenues in 2027, about $20 million or 40% of the STM's budget will need to be cut.

STBD and STM reserve fund balance over time. Since 2025, significant withdrawals have been made.

Additionally, the recently passed 2024-2032 Seattle Transportation Levy reduced annual inflation-adjusted spending on transit projects by 16-34% compared to its predecessor, leaving a significant gap in the city's capital budget for things like RapidRide and corridor upgrades funded by the 2015 levy.

Despite this, Metro and SDOT have both been clear that they want more service and now that operational constraints are being lifted, things are moving in the right direction.

Jen Malley-Crawford, Transit Service & Strategy Manager at SDOT told the Seattle Transit Blog that SDOT and Metro are working to get more service. SDOT and King County Metro have the shared goal of building the best possible bus network" Malley-Crawford said. We work closely together to boost bus frequency and reliability as much as possible each year, and find the best way to target these investments so they will have the most meaningful benefit for riders. We are grateful for their partnership and optimistic that the trend will continue moving in the right direction in the future."

STM Legacy

Since 2021, the STM has provided revenue to stave off the worst service cuts from COVID and has maintained a Very Frequent Transit Network, although significantly smaller than in the STBD days.

The legacy of the STM can not be told though without acknowledging Metro's multi-year operator shortage. Without enough drivers, bus service has been running at full steam, limited not by revenue but by the number of operators Metro can hire and retain. In this context, the promise to voters to fund more bus service has been difficult to follow through on.

Due in part to this, King County Metro is the worst performing large agency in bus ridership recovery from COVID with only ~75% of riders from its pre-covid peak and Metro still operates 12% fewer service hours than in 2019.

Since 2021, the STM has stayed true to its promise to increase access to transit, funding tens of thousands of ORCA cards, outreach to marginalized communities, and prioritizing service to equity priority areas.

But without being able to fund more service, the STM has had more revenue than expenses and proved a convenient funding source for citywide priorities, backfilling the promises made by the 2015 Transportation Levy, funding light rail permitting, and keeping the streetcars running.