Seattle Transit Measure: Renewal and a Course for More Frequent Transit
The renewed transit measure should fund improved night-owl service. (Bruce qu) This is part three of a three-part series investigating city-funded bus service in Seattle. Part 1 covered the Seattle Transportation Benefit District (STBD) from 2014 to early 2020. Part 2 covered its successor, the Seattle Transit Measure (STM) from 2020 to present. This article looks to the future of the STM and its 2026 renewal.
In April 2027, the Seattle Transit Measure (STM), Seattle's 0.15% sales tax that funds extra bus service and other transportation priorities, will expire. Seattle (or King County) will need to place a measure on the ballot this fall for voters to approve to maintain or expand existing transit service.
County or City Measure?Despite putting the breaks on its electrification plans, King County Metro is still facing a structural budget deficit starting in the early 2030s. Without additional funding, maintaining service will not be possible.
To avert that cliff and expand bus service countywide, transit advocates have urged King County Executive Girmay Zahilay to propose a funding measure to voters (sounds a lot like 2014 and 2020). Zahilay was supportive of this on the campaign trail. However, he said funds generated should also go to maintain and upgrade county roads similar to the failed 2007 Roads and Transit' measure activists campaigned against and a very similar countywide measure that failed in 2014 that directly led to the creation of Seattle's Transportation Benefit District (now the STM). We reached out to Executive Zahilay and his office declined to comment.
King County Council met last week to discuss the county's transportation funding needs and the possibility of a ballot measure. Of note is that the county roads division (which maintains roads in unincorporated King County) will run out of capital funding in 2028 without action. No specific proposals were discussed but Councilmembers Balducci (D6, near eastside) and Perry (D3, far eastside) indicated their support for a 0.1% sales tax to fund only roads (that does not require voter approval) and a potential 0.2% voter approved levy to fund transit.
I really think we need to chart a course to getting back to 2019 service levels and better. So, that's a very high priority for me" - Katie Wilson
Without action soon, Seattle will have to renew the STM to maintain service. Measures must be received by King County Elections by May 1 to appear on the August ballot or August 4 to appear on the November ballot and crafting a measure can take months. In 2014, the STBD proposal was unveiled in May. In 2020, the STM was unveiled in July after Jenny Durkan imposed a March deadline on the county to figure things out.
If the county does not propose a transit measure this year, they could blow their chance until Seattle's measure is up for renewal (again). The county needs turnout and enthusiasm from the voters within Seattle to pass a tax increase countywide. Regardless of which outcome is chosen, the STM pays for some services-like the Streetcar and ORCA passes-that a countywide measure would be unlikely to pick up.
Fully Fund the Frequent Transit NetworkThe first priority for a transit measure should be to fund frequent transit.
Travel time is the strongest predictor of a person's choice of travel mode but only on transit must riders wait for discrete intervals of time where travel is possible. Waiting for the bus is one of the least enjoyable parts of a transit journey. Riders perceive waiting time as taking around 1.2 to 4.4 times longer than it actually is. So increasing frequency significantly reduces the amount of time people feel' the bus takes and recalibrates people's calculus away from driving.
Increasing frequency also gives riders the freedom to leave when they want and it improves their access to the city by making transfers easier. With a frequent grid, riders can more easily transfer to other routes, significantly increasing access to parts of the city unserved by their route. Further, high frequency transit allows riders to chain trips together like running errands across neighborhoods or dropping a kid off at daycare on the way to work.
This increase in opportunity for riders also represents a massive benefit for businesses who can pool employees and customers from far larger swaths of the city. Most small businesses struggle to attract talent and all businesses could use more customers. Without the ability to trip chain, all the riders passing by shops aren't getting off the bus to buy anything.
Luckily, a vision for this already exists at SDOT and is waiting to be funded. The Frequent Transit Network is the north star that already guides STM investments but needs more funding to be realized. In it, not only are huge swaths of the city planned to get 10 minute service but a number of corridors are planned to get service better than 10 minutes. Today, only 9 bus routes run every 10 minutes or better all day everyday. A fully funded FTN would have 25-30 routes.
SDOT's Frequent Transit Network goals by route type. The goals are the same every day of the week.
A map of the current Frequent Transit Network (FTN) goal.At the county level, the north star for transit investments is Metro's long range plan Metro Connects. The plan is divided into two milestones: an Interim' network and a 2050' network (maps here). The 2050 network is incredibly ambitious while the 2035 network provides a more attainable stepping stone for nearer-term investments. The plan does not provide as concrete of frequency targets as SDOT's FTN by leaving a large range of 5-15' minute frequency for even the best category of route and omitting targets for 24 hour service.
Metro Connects service types
Interim Metro Connects network (image: KC Metro)Fund a Basic Night NetworkIn addition to funding adequate all-day frequency, any renewal needs to get serious about Seattle's night network. Today, only 14 routes provide all-night hourly service and hourly routes can be tricky to rely on.
It's a frequent complaint that Seattle doesn't stay open late enough. Credit card data from Square shows us getting smoked by nightlight capital Detroit. And data from Toast showed a 9% reduction in late night dining in 2024. Despite the complaints, there is a city after dark full of nightclubs, late night eats, comedy shows, concerts, theater, and even late night laserdome. But for transit riders and anyone who wants to drink and not drive, it's difficult to stay out late without calling one of the most expensive Ubers in the country. Riders have to head home when the buses do which means we can't work late night jobs and we can't enjoy the city after hours.
Having a reliable night network would make the city accessible after dark, making it easier to staff late night establishments and easier for riders to go out in neighborhoods other than their own. When Melbourne piloted 24 hour transit in 2016, they found people stayed out longer, spent more money, and 56% [of interviewees] reported increasing their train use." When Boston extended late night transit, it boosted activity. In 2016, London (which then had no night tube service) began running the Central and Victoria lines through the night and saw a 21% increase in dinner reservations after 10 pm.
Sound Transit is in the process of launching a regional night network of half-hourly express buses across the region but it will skip most neighborhoods in Seattle. This will start with a half-hourly airport express opening on March 28. To keep the rest of the city connected to the region, timed transfers downtown and along Sound Transit's regional night network are needed.
Another benefit of a frequent night network is improving the rider experience after dark. Metro's rider survey lists after-dark safety as least satisfied among riders. If a transit rider feels unsafe while waiting an hour or more for their late-night bus, they're very likely to feel forced to find another way home. Having better frequency at night gives riders more options and 30 minute service would transform the city.
Unfortunately, Metro Connects is not prescriptive of a visionary night network. Metro's Service Guidelines do outline Typical Service Types" that indicate that RapidRide and Frequent routes can get 24 hour service but it stops short of a visionary map of night service.
Luckily, SDOT's Frequent Transit Network includes very concrete goals for night service. If fully funded, nearly the entire city would be within walking distance of a bus every 60 minutes or better and most riders in the city core would have access to a bus every 30 minutes or better.
The Frequent Night Network as proposed by SDOT. Thick, green lines come every 30 minutes all night. Thin, yellow lines come every 60 minutes.Funding More Service: A Transportation Benefit DistrictThe main taxing authority available to both the City of Seattle and King County is the current framework that powers the STM: a Transportation Benefit District (TBD). TBDs are authorized, with voter approval, to levy a 0.3% sales tax and a $100 Vehicle License Fee (VLF), a flat annual fee on a car's registration.
Seattle already uses its TBD to levy a 0.15% sales tax (the STM) and a $50 VLF for road maintenance. Additionally, TBDs can levy a 0.1% sales tax and $50 VLF without voter approval. Non-voted VLFs do not stack (i.e. the county could not increase VLF's in Seattle without a referendum) but non-voted sales taxes do. TBDs can also reduce their taxes at any time.
Other revenue sources do exist but many are unproven or likely to be caught up in court. With one year left before the STM expires, revenue is needed relatively quickly.
Funding a Seattle MeasureSDOT tracks progress towards the FTN by the number of trips funded. SDOT estimates that the FTN (and its night component) is 2.6M trips total and 500,000 trips per year short of being fully funded. But Metro is not done restoring service it funds that was cut during COVID. Metro's contribution to service (i.e. total minus STM investments) is 8% below 2019. 8% of 2.6M trips is ~200k trips that will be added back from Metro by 2027, leaving the FTN 300,000 trips short of being fully funded.
The median bus trip on Metro is about 45 minutes long so 300,000 trips would be 225,000 service hours. SDOT paid around $200 a service hour for service in 2023 and 2024 (the last years with data). This prices fully funding the FTN at about $45 million a year.
Additionally, the current Seattle Transit Measure is running with a $20M deficit. Buoyed by reserve funds accumulated during the pandemic, additional funding is needed lest programs are cut.
| Tax type | Limit | Remaining authority | Additional revenue if authority is fully utilized |
| Sales tax | 0.3% | 0.15% | $53M |
| Vehicle license fee | $100 | $50 | $20M |
Seattle currently utilizes half of its TBD taxing authority. Using its full authority would bring in an additional $73M annually, enough to fund the FTN and fix its deficit.
Finally, if a county measure were to eclipse Seattle's, Seattle could maintain a 0.1% sales tax without voter approval. That would bring in $35M annually and the STM currently pays about $20M annually on programs other than bus service.
Funding a Countywide MeasureAny countywide measure would use Metro Connects as a guide, not SDOT's FTN. Metro projects it will restore 2019 service by the end of 2027 which totals roughly 4,650,000 county-funded service hours. Metro Connects estimates the Interim' network to cost 5.5M service hours (an additional 850,000) and the 2050 network to cost 7.25M (2.6M more). At $200/hr, this would cost $170M and $520M respectively.
Additionally, Metro has a $500M deficit starting in 2031 when it will exhaust its reserve fund. Any measure would need to fill that budget hole in addition to expanding service.
| Tax type | Limit | Remaining authority | Additional revenue if authority is fully utilized |
| Sales tax | 0.3% | 0.3% | $600M |
| Vehicle license fee | $100 | $100 | $100M+ |
King County does not currently utilize any of its TBD authority. Using county sales tax data and assuming similar per capita revenue as Seattle's VLF, this amounts to $700M of potential revenue. This would be more than enough to fully fund the Metro Connects Interim Network and avert Metro's impending budget deficit.
If the county does not propose a transit measure this year, it seems likely they will utilize their authority to impose a 0.1% sales tax without voter approval to fund county roads and leave Seattle to renew the STM. However, a Seattle-only measure would not solve Metro's looming budget shortfall, which the county would need to grapple with before 2031.
Looking AheadOver the last dozen years, Seattle has seen the numerous benefits of increasing bus service and providing the opportunity to live without a car across the city. King County is considering how it might reap similar benefits. Regardless of whether funding comes from just Seattle, the county, or both, there are clear needs for transit funding in Seattle and King County.
If Seattle wants to achieve its mode shift goals, climate goals, and safety goals, it needs to fund frequent transit across the entire city, 24/7, and it could do it with a renewal and expansion of the STM. If the county wants to avoid cuts to Metro service outside Seattle in the early 2030s, it will need to find support for a countywide measure. With the right support, we could get back on track to building a truly transit-oriented region.