Analysis From West Point Warns That Strait of Hormuz Blockade Will Strangle US Defense Industry
spiraldancing writes:
The closure of the strait of Hormuz is causing a "paralyzing, real-time problem" for any prospective manufacturing surge in the US defense industrial base, and even for the repair of defense equipment damaged by Iranian attacks, according to analysis published by West Point's Modern War Institute.
In particular sulphur, a vital upstream input in the extraction of critical minerals including copper and cobalt, has seen a "near total" disruption of seaborne trade in the straits, which makes up half the world's total shipments, and prices have spiked nearly 25% since the war began, and seen a 165% rise year on year, the report said.
According to the analysis, these minerals - used in everything from microprocessors to jet engines to drone batteries - "dictate how fast things can be built and scaled under the pressure of an ongoing war", and the effects of a sudden supply shock on US defense readiness have never been modeled.
One of the authors of that analysis, USAF lieutenant colonel and nonresident fellow at the US Naval War College Jahara "Franky" Matisek, told the Guardian in a telephone conversation that its "a cascading issue" raising the possibility that a "knock-on effect of this war is that it may cost double or more than double to replace all these weapons because all the mineral demand is going to go way up".
Matisek warned of another possibility: "Markets are not going to be able to provide the amount of minerals that are needed to replace all these radars that have been destroyed and all these munitions that have to be replaced. It's a really precarious spot to be in right now."
[...] The authors offer specific estimates for materials damaged in the early days of the war, writing that "it will take over thirty thousand kilograms of copper just to replace the two major US radars destroyed in Bahrain and Qatar" and "thousands of kilograms of additional copper to fix or replace other damaged US communication equipment, sensors, and radars in Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE".
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