Reform and Plaid likely to benefit from polarisation of Welsh politics
Polls suggest Reform could win most seats in Senedd election but party is unlikely to be able to form government
On a sunny but cold evening in a shopping centre car park on the outskirts of Merthyr Tydfil, Reform UK supporters enjoyed free pizza and loud music as they waited for what the party leader, Nigel Farage, said was his last big speech before Thursday's Welsh Senedd, Scottish parliament and English local elections.
Reform could win the most seats under Wales's new more proportional voting system but it is unlikely to be able to form a government, as other parties have ruled out going into coalition with it. Yet Farage's outfit is the first rightwing party with a shot at winning in Wales since the 1850s. The surge in support for a party that got 1% of the vote in the last Senedd election is impossible to ignore.
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