Satellite phone dreams orbit reality as direct-to-cell usage set to underwhelm

Mobile telcos are linking up with satellite operators to extend coverage beyond their cell towers reach, but actual usage of the technology may fall short of industry expectations. That's the view of Juniper Research, which forecasts monthly active direct-to-cell (D2C) users will grow from 17.4 million in 2026 to 133 million by 2031. Strong growth, but Juniper warns real-world adoption will likely disappoint: D2C is inherently niche, kicking in only when terrestrial signal fails, and it does nothing to solve poor indoor coverage - a complaint that frustrates users day-to-day. Consumer demand for D2C is currently concentrated to specific trips and travel, such as to national parks and nature reserves, rather than during everyday usage of mobile services," claimed senior research analyst Alex Webb. Network intelligence biz Ookla reported a few months back that the number of D2C connections rose nearly 25 percent between July 2025 and March 2026. As Reg readers know, D2C lets unmodified smartphones connect directly to low Earth orbit satellites, no specialist hardware required. Satellite companies ally with mobile network operators, borrowing their spectrum to cover areas beyond cell range, essentially like putting a cell tower in space. T-Mobile in the US led the way, offering a D2C capability via SpaceX's Starlink constellation for roughly a year, and dangling it an an add-on to lure subscribers from rival networks. America is fertile ground for D2C given how quickly signal drops off outside major urban centers. Australia is similarly well-suited. Europe, where terrestrial networks cover most of the continent, was long considered a weaker prospect, though this hasn't deterred operators. Virgin Media O2 has launched its O2 Satellite service in the UK, while VodafoneThree was preparing customers for trials this summer. Juniper predicts the Far East and China will be the biggest market for satellite phone services, followed by India, with Africa, North America, Latin America and West Europe sharing smaller, roughly equal slices. Dense urban settings present a separate problem D2C can't fix. Thick walls, underground spaces and physical obstacles routinely kill signal in cites and no amount of orbital infrastructure changes that, Webb reported. Pricing remains another drag on adoption. The GSMA previously found 40 percent of phone subscribers wouldn't pay anything extra for satellite capability, and another 32 percent would stretch to a 5 percent premium. For now, most D2C services are limited to text messaging and emergency services calls, with voice and full data still to come. Vodafone demonstrated the first mobile video call using a satellite connection using standard 4G/5G handsets in early 2025, showing it is technically possible. The question is when and whether enough users will care. (R)