Article BQKG Would an Argentina-style cure work for Greece? Probably not

Would an Argentina-style cure work for Greece? Probably not

by
Nils Pratley
from on (#BQKG)

The Greek economy would be better off outside the euro, say some, but devaluation may only work in countries with thriving trading partners

There is a beguiling argument that life for Greece outside the eurozone wouldn't be so bad. Sure, the immediate economic pain would be severe, but a new drachma, coupled with debt default, might deliver a whoosh of relief in time. Isn't history full of countries that have devalued their way out of crisis by generating an export boom? Didn't Argentina recover that way when it abandoned its currency peg to the US dollar in 2002?

Taken to its logical extreme, this argument says the real threat to the survival of the eurozone is that Greece leaves and prospers. Come the next crisis, other strugglers might opt to quit, dumping their debts as they go.

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