How a Fed rates rise creates issues for emerging markets

A rise in the US dollar would spell market turbulence for many developing countries but no widespread crises

The prospect that the US Federal Reserve will start exiting zero policy rates later this year has fuelled growing fear of renewed volatility in emerging economies' currency, bond, and stock markets. The concern is understandable: when the Fed signalled in 2013 that the end of its quantitative-easing (QE) policy was forthcoming, the resulting "taper tantrum" sent shockwaves through many emerging countries' financial markets and economies.

Indeed, rising interest rates in the US and the ensuing likely rise in the value of the dollar could, it is feared, wreak havoc among emerging markets' governments, financial institutions, corporations, and even households. Because all have borrowed trillions of dollars in the last few years, they will now face an increase in the real local-currency value of these debts, while rising US rates will push emerging markets' domestic interest rates higher, thus increasing debt-service costs further.

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