Greek crisis: IMF says no third bailout without debt relief - as it happened

Greece's finance minister tells Bloomberg TV he'd rather cut his arm off than agree to a deal without debt restructuring

Read today's Greek debt crisis live blog

7.49pm BST

And finally..... Tsipras says MPs will be asked to vote on the old bailout proposal, if the referendum result is Yes.

Greek PM Tsipras: Creditor deal will go to parliament if Greeks vote YES. (BBG)

7.44pm BST

Back in the Greek PM's office, Tsipras denies that he's attempting a coup with his referendum (as the opposition claimed).

He's also calling out the media for being biased in favour of the Yes campaign; the interviewer points out that Syriza MPs get on TV too.

#Greece Tsipras criticizes media for unbalanced reporting favoring YES - Journo: SYRIZA MPs in every TV too (lol )

7.27pm BST

Constantine Michalos, head of the Hellenic Chambers of Commerce, doesn't think the Greek banks are going to open again on Tuesday.

He's told the Telegraph that:

"We are reliably informed that the cash reserves of the banks are down to a500m. Anybody who thinks they are going to open again on Tuesday is day-dreaming. The cash would not last an hour,"

Exclusive: Greeks banks down to a500m as economy crashes - @AmbroseEP in Athens http://t.co/kv2ku1ZCx5

7.25pm BST

Tsipras is now repeating what his finance minister told Bloomberg this morning - that a No vote will be followed by fresh negotiations, and a deal.

* Greek PM says Greek banks will reopen after a deal - RTRS

#Greece Tsipras Live: if strong NO next day I will be in Brussels and I will sign agreement

The queues at banks are a shame-for #Greece & Europe. Partners refused to grant short extension of program, opting for extortion instead.

7.15pm BST

My decision to call a referendum prompted the IMF to release its debt sustainability analysis, argues Tsipras.

When we announced the #referendum, the IMF announced that #Greece's debt required a 30% haircut and long grace period. #Greferendum #OXI

7.13pm BST

Tsipras suggests that the International Monetary Fund could have piped up earlier:

Tsipras now, ANT1 TV: What IMF says today for #Greece's debt was never said to us during the ngotiations. TR @doleross #Greececrisis

7.10pm BST

And on the issue of the hour, Alexis Tsipras is adamant that a new bailout must include debt restructuring

Without debt restructuring, no program will be viable. #Greece #Greferendum #dimopsifisma #OXI

#greece with impeccable political timing, IMF sides with greece against eurozone. #sortof http://t.co/SI6ewgslGm

7.08pm BST

...followed by a nice pop at his predecessors (such as Antonis Samaras, who blasted Tsipras on Bloomberg TV today)

#Tsipras now, ANT1 TV: It never crossed my mind to do what other PMs did: come back (from negotiations) with a non sustainable deal. #Greece

7.07pm BST

7.03pm BST

A punchy soundbite:

Either you give in to ultimatums or you opt for #democracy. The Greek people can't be bled dry any longer. #Greece #Greferendum #OXI

7.02pm BST

No early surprises from Alexis Tsipras in tonight's speech (online here).

He's insisting that Greeks will be voting for Democracy and justice in Europe on Sunday (if they vote no). OXI does not equal Grexit, he vows.

Voting #OXI / NO on a solution that isn't viable doesn't mean saying NO to Europe. It means demanding a solution that's realistic. #Greece

Austerity only serves to further the crisis. Workers and pensioners can no longer shoulder the burden. #Greece #Greferendum #dimopsifisma

6.56pm BST

Oh, one last thing...Alexis Tsipras is giving an interview on Antenna TV now.

It's being streamed live here. We're keeping an eye for any major announcements...

II III^3I, IfI...IIIIII...I3/4I IfIII III1 & IfII III1/4IIfI^1II^3IIII IIIII IIIIII. #Greece pic.twitter.com/MildUJ0jgH

5.47pm BST

The Greek government has just announced that a number of leading musicians, singers and actors will stage a concert when a huge "no" rally is held in Syntagma square in front of the parliament tomorrow night, reports Helena Smith.

"The big no rally will be a big festival of the people," the ruling radical left Syriza party announced in a statement. "We will respond to the scene of fear that they want to impose with our songs, with our strong voice."

"In Sunday's referendum with a proud OXI (no) we will write history. We will say the OXI of our life in order for life to emerge victorious."

5.37pm BST

John Hooper has been sounding out voters in the villages of Corinthia. Read his piece here:

Related: MPs canvas vociferous voters in Corinthia, weather vane of Greek politics

5.34pm BST

Voters won't be able to miss this:

5.29pm BST

Even a yes vote in Sunday's referendum may not be enough to keep Greece in the euro, says Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic adviser at Allianz. Commenting on the International Monetary Fund's report, he says:

The IMF's DSA (debt sustainability analysis) for Greece offers a stark reminder of the challenges faced by all those involved in this horrid tragedy.

It points to an enormous need for economic reforms by a country that - repeatedly - has had huge difficulties sustaining a less ambitious effort under several governments.

5.19pm BST

European markets have ended lower ahead of the key Greek referendum decision at the weekend, with an exception being the FTSE 100 which has been lifted by BP agreeing to pay US authorities around $18.7bn relating to the 2010 Gulf of Mexico oil spill.

5.00pm BST

ECB board member Josef Bonnici said the terms of any future emergency funding it offered to Greek banks - including the amount of collateral - would depend on the outcome of the referendum.

Asked by reporters in Milan if a win for the no supporters meant the emergency liquidity assistance would end, he said:

4.50pm BST

Over in Athens the Greek government spokeman, Gavriel Sakellarides, has reacted to the onslaught of support former prime ministers have made for the yes campaign today. Our correspondent Helena Smith reports:

Growing numbers in the governing Syriza party are now saying openly that the no campaign is being deliberately targeted by what the left-leaning paper Syntaktwn described as "a machine of terror" in its front page splash today.

Echoing those sentiments, the government spokeman issued the following statement.

4.47pm BST

Greece's banks have come under more pressure from ratings agencies, not altogether surprisingly.

Fitch has downgraded the long-term senior debt rating of National Bank of Greece and Eurobank Ergasias from CCC to CC.

4.41pm BST

Nick Kounis at ABN Amro thinks the IMF could be underplaying Greece's problems:

The IMF's report on #Greek debt makes grim reading but its growth assumptions are too optimistic hence debt projections are too low

4.22pm BST

#IMF's chart on #Greece's financing needs, not including Europe's coverage of financing needs throu Sept pic.twitter.com/UwRr8EKLpq ~@IanTalley

4.16pm BST

And here's our report on the IMF's pronouncements:

Related: IMF says Greece needs extra a50bn in funds and debt relief

4.05pm BST

Our correspondent Phillip Inman has read the IMF document and highlights some of the juicest segments.

He says: "The IMF admits the deterioration in Greece's financial position means is not in a position to cope with debt repayments for at least three years, even with a debt write-off.

It said: "Even with concessional financing through 2018, debt would remain very high for decades and highly vulnerable to shocks."

4.00pm BST

Just days ahead of the Greek referendum, the International Monetary Fund has said the struggling country needs a50bn of extra funds over the next three years. It also requires large scale debt relief to create "a breathing space" and stabilise the economy. Larry Elliott and Phillip Inman write:

With three days to go before a knife-edge referendum, the IMF revealed a deep split with Europe as it warned that Greece's debts were "unsustainable".

Fund officials said they would not be prepared to put a proposal for a third Greek bail out package to the Washington-based organisation's board unless it included both a commitment to economic reform and debt relief.

3.46pm BST

Greece's four largest banks would have failed and defaulted without this week's capital controls due to deposit withdrawals and the European Central Bank's decision not to raise the emergency funding cap, according to Fitch Ratings. The agency said:

The Greek banking system's liquidity and solvency positions are very weak and some banks may be nearing a point where resolution [intervention to manage the failure of a firm in an orderly fashion] becomes a real possibility. The ECB is responsible for supervising and authorising the four major Greek banks, and the Bank of Greece is resolution authority for the others.

Resolution of Greek banks, if required, is unlikely to be straightforward. We believe it would be politically unacceptable to impose losses on Greek creditors and that efforts would be made to find a solution which avoids this but still complies with EU legislation. Existing bank resolution laws in Greece are relatively mature, sharing many similarities with the EU's Bank Recovery and Resolution Directive, although they exclude explicit bail-in of senior unsecured creditors.

A swift lifting of capital controls is highly unlikely even if there is successful resumption of negotiations with the ECB, IMF and European Commission. Controls on Cypriot banks, lifted in May, lasted two years.

3.11pm BST

Some responses to our Guardian Witness call out for people to share their experiences in Greece at the moment.

In some ways life is continuing as normal:

The market comes to my local area in Thessaloniki every Thursday morning, and is principally a vegetable market although there are a couple of chicken stalls, four or five for fish stalls and a few for cheese, dairy, some for eggs, some for kitchen supplies and so on.

Nothing has changed from last week, or the week before or the week before that. Plenty of produce out and no swing in prices outside of the usual seasonal variations that pertain alongside the changes in harvest times for different things. Just as many shoppers as usual.

Sent via GuardianWitness

By s1syphus

2 July 2015, 12:58

A large Oxi (No) banner is conveniently translated on one of the bridges crossing the Lithaios River in Trikala, Greece.

Sent via GuardianWitness

By travisross42

2 July 2015, 13:13

No large protests in the small city of Trikala, but each side does have a lovely booth. The Nai (Yes) booth has a noticeably nicer sign than the Oxi (No) booth.

Sent via GuardianWitness

By travisross42

2 July 2015, 13:06

3.05pm BST

The European Central Bank plans to meet on Monday to discuss provision of emergency funding to Greek banks, according to Reuters.

The current cap is a85bn, and a decision on whether to continue it or freeze it looks likely to be made quickly once the referendum result is known.

2.56pm BST

In this mini-documentary Phoebe Greenwood meets the no and yes voters in Athens, as well as businesses affected by the continuing crisis and an academic who says referenda are a dangerous way of making decisions.

2.31pm BST

And the Greek referendum website is live:

#Greek government launches official #greferendum website complete with countdown clock http://t.co/wqHk33Jafd

2.22pm BST

Here's our story by Jennifer Rankin on the pledge by Yanis Varoufakis to resign if the country votes yes in Sunday's referendum:

Greece's finance minister has pledged to resign if his country votes yes to the bailout plan proposed by international lenders.

Yanis Varoufakis, the academic-turned-minister who has riled his eurozone counterparts, said he would not remain finance minister on Monday if Greece voted yes.

Related: Yanis Varoufakis: I'd rather cut off my arm than accept yes vote

2.05pm BST

Only three days to go now until the referendum, and in this Guardian video columnist Jonathan Freedland and economics editor Larry Elliott consider the last few turbulent days and look ahead to Sunday's vote:

1.40pm BST

The opinion poll which showed the Yes campaign at 47% and the No campaign at 43%, is not as straightforward as first thought.

GPO, the polling company which carried it out, has released a statement which says the survey was released without its permission, and is only a fragment of its research.

*GPO SAYS POLL WAS PUBLISHED IN GREEK PRESS WITHOUT PERMISSION ; *GPO SAYS `PARTIAL' RESULTS OF ITS REFERENDUM SURVEY PUBLISHED

#Greece GPO says 'poll w 47% YES not completed' & will seek all legal measures to protect company's interests http://t.co/km4GVSoX0o

GPO poll giving advantage to YES was incomplete and published without permission of the polling company http://t.co/YnGMdh6aVs #Greferendum

1.13pm BST

My colleague Jon Henley is tweeting from Greece, showing a gift shop with a stiff upper lip:

Humour or desperation (or both)? Gift shop in Monastiraki #Greece pic.twitter.com/Y4JOiPj6wu

1.06pm BST

Syriza has called on Greeks to attend a "No' rally on Friday night, at 7:30pm local time (5.30pm BST).

Athens will be crowded tomorrow night, with a 'Yes' rally also taking place.

A river of people expected to flood in Athens as both #NO & #YES rallies take place at 19:30 this Friday #Greferendum pic.twitter.com/gPajdD3oo7

12.22pm BST

Another former Greek PM, Antonis Samaras, has just spoken on Bloomberg TV, and called for a Yes vote.

Former Greek PM .@samaras_antonis tells @BloombergTV: "Where are we going to go [if no deal with creditors]: Zimbabwe or Argentina?"

12.16pm BST

A former Greek prime minister, Kostas Karamanlis, has just called for people to vote Yes to preserve the country's place in Europe.

In a TV interview, Karamanlis - PM from 2004-2009 - warned that a No result would be the first step towards leaving the eurozone.

#Karamanlis: A NO vote is the first step from exit from Europe #referendum #Greece - http://t.co/HtJDlt1THL pic.twitter.com/gW0sPqzs54

former greek pm kostas karamanlis now making statement in favor of 'yes' vote in #Greferendum

former conservative greek pm karamanlis said a 'no' vote would be the first step towards exiting europe #Greferendum

karamanlis's statement is important bcz of the perceived cordial relations between former conservative pm and tsipras #greece

12.05pm BST

In a sign of mounting tension in the Greek government, three members of the junior coalition party, Independent Greeks, have distanced themselves from the referendum.

The Greek Kathimerini newspaper says:

Last Saturday when I voted in favor of the referendum I had assurances that there would be no capital controls," noted Larissa MP Vassilis Kokkalis, on Thursday, adding that he did not have a mandate for closed banks.

12.01pm BST

Over in Athens our correspondent Helena Smith says a Yes vote would almost certainly trigger political movement, with Tsipras' own role in government highly questionable.

Whether resounding or not, a yes vote would make it high nigh impossible for the government to continue in its present make-up. Some form of change - be it elections, the creation of a national unity cross-party government or the formation of a Mario Monti-style administration led by technocrats - would become inevitable.

Yanis Varoufakis' candid announcement that he would rather resign than put his name to an agreement with creditors that did not deal with the issue of the country's unsustainable debt burden, gives a taste of what will follow if the no camp is defeated.

11.58am BST

According to Reuters, Greek state minister Nikos Pappas has told journalists that the banks will reopen "as soon as we get an agreement."

11.52am BST

You can use GuardianWitness to share your experiences of what's going on in Greece today. Tell us what's happening in your local area?
IIII^1I^3IIIII I1/4II III IIIIIfIIIfI IfIII IIIIII IfI(R)I1/4III; IIIIIII I1/4II II^1 IfI...I1/4I^2IIIII^1 IfIII IIII^1III(R) IfII;

11.46am BST

Don't worry if you missed Yanis Varoufakis's interview, in which he promises that he won't be finance minister on Monday night Greece votes 'Yes' on Sunday:

Bloomberg has now uploaded it, here:

11.27am BST

EC reserves position, says @MargSchinas when pressed on IMF report showing Greece can't pay debt back

11.24am BST

Over in Brussels, the EC's chief spokesman Margaritis Schinas has confirmed that talks with Athens are now on ice until Greece has voted on its future on Sunday.

No further talks till Sunday,we will take into consideration the results of #referendum #Greeks r voting for their future says @MargSchinas

Now is the moment for the Greek people to choose their future, says @MargSchinas - no more talks

11.18am BST

Sky News Europe correspondent, Rob Nisbet, reports that the yes campaign is dominating TV adverts in the run-up to Sunday's poll.

But the 'yes' campaign is swamping TV ad breaks. It's clearly well financed as evidenced by support of #Olympiacos and Greek Orthodox Church

11.11am BST

Over in Athens, polls this morning polls are suggesting that Sunday's referendum will be a close run thing.

The difference in support between the "yes" and "no" camps so narrow that the result is essentially too close to call.

"Yes means yes to " submission, unemployment, insecurity, endless taxes, the undermining of the Greek economy. People will say NO to artificial dilemmas, no to the strangulation of people by closed banks, no to the slavery of member-states, no to economic and political subordination."

11.06am BST

Varoufakis will make an excellent former finance minister.

He's not resigned yet, Stan!

11.00am BST

Vassilis Korkidis, who heads the National Confederation of Hellenic Commerce, has also heard talk that the banks may indeed run out of cash by Monday (as The Times reports today).

Korkidis told our correspondent Helena Smith yesterday that the Greek economy is grinding to a halt.

"No one trusts anyone anymore, so no transactions are taking place between wholesale and retail."

Related: Bank closures taking their toll on businesses across Greece

10.51am BST

With just a1.5bn euro in reserves on Friday - and the cash being fast depleted - it is far from assured that banks will be able to open after the referendum on Tuesday.

"The Greek prime minister [Tsipras] is telling lies when he says the banks will open soon," Stavros Theodorakis who heads the pro-European Potami party told SKAI TV.

"How will the banks open? Who will give money and this problem is going to affect poor people. Besides the rich have taken their money overseas."

10.41am BST

It's too late to reprint Sunday's ballot papers. But if they could, the question could be changed to "Do you want a new finance minister?"

Don't know whether incitement to vote "yes" or "no": Bloomberg Markets @markets *GREECE'S VAROUFAKIS SAYS WILL RESIGN IF THERE'S YES VOTE

Greek Fin Min @yanisvaroufakis won't sign deal without debt restructuring. #GreeceCrisis http://t.co/C6Qf4aQdLz pic.twitter.com/gbgHrr1ksD

10.17am BST

Have you spoken to Alexis Tsipras about whether he'd resign?

This is no time to talk about defeat, says Varoufakis (just minutes after saying his own job is on the line!!).

Greek finmin @yanisvaroufakis : "When you go into battle you don't talk about defeat" on whether @atsipras would also quit if YES vote wins

10.13am BST

On @BloombergTV, @yanisvaroufakis says he hasn't waited on ATM line. "Let's not personalise this too much. Wife & I living a v frugal life"

10.12am BST

Why haven't we seen you at the cash machines, Mr Varoufakis?

I've been rather busy, for one thing. But yes, my wife and I must be the only people who haven't queued up. It feels 'inappropriate', Varoufakis adds, but suggests we shouldn't personalise the issue.

10.10am BST

Varoufakis says he's confident that the Greek people will vote No.

And he denies that a No vote will lead to Grexit.

10.03am BST

Is Berlin seeking regime change? Varoufakis at first declines to comment, but then comes close to confirming the charge.

10.03am BST

Do you think Angela Merkel is seeking regime chance?

I'll quote from a BBC programme, Varoufakis smiles:

You may very well think that, I couldn't possibly comment.

10.00am BST

@yanisvaroufakis "I prefer to cut my arm off" than sign a deal that doesn't make Greece's debts sustainable via @business @BloombergTV

9.57am BST

Yanis Varoufakis says that the proposal which creditors posed last week will "certainly be on the table" next week if the Greek people vote Yes on Sunday.

I will not.

*** @yanisvaroufakis says that if there is a YES vote, he will RESIGN as finance minister. "I will not" stay on. He tells @GuyJohnsonTV

9.48am BST

What are the consequences of a yes vote, or a no verdict?

We have said if there's a Yes, we will sign the deal that was on offer on the dotted line, says Varoufakis. We are unreconstructed democrats, after all

9.45am BST

But how can the ECB let your banks reopen, by raising the ELA limits, on Monday, as Greece won't be in a bailout programme?

The ECB has been making the rules up since this crisis began, says Varoufakis. What else was Mario Draghi's "Whatever it takes" speech in 2012?

9.43am BST

Yanis Varoufakis is on Bloomberg now.

Will the Greek banks open on Tuesday?

9.38am BST

Greece's finance minister Yanis Varoufakis about to be interviewed on Bloomberg TV. It will be streamed live here

I'll cover the key points.

.@yanisvaroufakis due on @BloombergTV in 1 minute!

9.36am BST

Greece could be in a real pickle by the time Sunday's referendum is held. One banking insider has told The Times that banks might start to run dry before the end of the weekend.

'It could be 80 hours,' senior banking official on Greece literally running out of cash | @antheecarassava http://t.co/ZsPOkTLjrm

9.33am BST

Mario Draghi's massive stimulus programme just ratcheted up another notch.

The European Central Bank has just announced that it is expanding its QE bond-buying programme, to include corporate bonds issuers.

How very Japanese and indeed Swiss as the #ECB expands the list of private debt its #QE will buy http://t.co/aoEIVHmw46

ECB extends QE to corporate bonds. Alegria!! http://t.co/eOPv7NHqWr

9.20am BST

Greek journalist Omaira Gill has tweeted pictures from an Athens supermarket yesterday, showing heavy demand for basic goods.

Supermarket employee:pasta, flour, rice, sugar& evap milk flying off the shelves faster than they can restock #greece pic.twitter.com/1NS6TpNBOv

@OmairaGill I must mention not all the shelves looked this empty. Just those holding the basics mentioned

Since I'm being accused of propaganda, this was Plaka on Tuesday evening. Business as usual. #greece #greferendum pic.twitter.com/f3tvcxbLKt

9.09am BST

Christine Lagarde has punctured hopes of early debt relief for Greece.

Related: IMF tells Greece: no debt relief before reforms

IMF own analysis shows #Greece debt still unsustainable in 2030-even with austerity + III bailout-w/out restructuring http://t.co/1tZc46DC46

8.55am BST

The Greek limbo extends to the financial markets, where the main indices are broadly flat in early trading.

The political grandstanding continues over the Greek debt talks and although the next key indicator here is likely to be the result of Sunday's referendum, there's still the prospect of either side throwing in a firework.

8.47am BST

Over in the FT's letters section, one young Greek citizen has written about her fears for the future:

A young Greek, 21, writes from the heart about her country's fate pic.twitter.com/9aNpgK22Oj

8.38am BST

Having made optimistic noises in recent weeks, France's finance minister sounds increasingly like a glass-half-empty man.

Speaking on iTELE, Michel Sapin warned that a No vote could lead to Grexit, as:

"You cannot reach a deal with someone who tells you 'No'."

*EUROGROUP UNITED IN SAYING ACCORD IMPOSSIBLE BEFORE VOTE: SAPIN

8.23am BST

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the Greek debt crisis.

The trenchant criticism of Tsipras from Berlin reinforced the view that the German government might refuse to negotiate with the leftwing Syriza administration on any new rescue package after Sunday's referendum in Greece - which Berlin insists is a vote on whether to stay in the euro.

Related: Greece crisis: Berlin accuses Tsipras of seeking scapegoats outside own ranks

Eurozone leaders have ruled out more talks with Greece until after the latter's Sunday referendum. Effectively going over Syriza's head

There's no suggestion of genuine compromise. The aim is apparently to humiliate Tsipras and his government in preparation for its early replacement with a more pliable administration.

We know from the IMF documents prepared for last week's "final proposals" and reported in the Guardian that the creditors were fully aware they meant unsustainable levels of debt and self-defeating austerity for Greece until at least 2030, even on the most fancifully optimistic scenario....

Related: Syriza can't just cave in. Europe's elites want regime change in Greece | Seumas Milne

Just as the mood in Greece is shifting towards a Yes, the mood in Germany is shifting towards a No. A fine mess. http://t.co/5k79LAUuoq