Greek confidence vote looms as Merkel faces bailout rebellion - as it happened
Financial investors are watching the political fallout in Athens after its third aid programme was agreed on Friday night
- Energy minister: Confidence vote unavoidable
- Introduction: Merkel tries to calm dissent
- Bild: 120 CDU/CSU MPs could rebel
- Varoufakis trashes bailout deal
5.37pm BST
An unexpectedly weak US manufacturing figure for New York sent a mini-shock through markets on an otherwise relatively quiet day. But shares soon recovered their poise, as investors awaited the week's key vote on the Greece bailout in the German parliament, as well as a possible vote of confidence by Syriza which could lead to new elections as early as next month. The final scores showed:
5.26pm BST
A survey in Germany seems to show people are not overly thrilled with the agreement with Greece:
Merkel's bailout battle: German chancellor faces party rebellion over #Greece. https://t.co/IRNwwycoXZ pic.twitter.com/9I0TiVyCRa
5.04pm BST
Strong Greek furniture sales in Q2 support view that rise in GDP reflected panic spending ahead of capital controls pic.twitter.com/jk5FnYjAiy
4.36pm BST
Greece's stock market has ended the day higher although banking shares are still under the cosh.
The Athens index is up 1.04% at 680.94, but the banking index has dropped 8.67% as concerns about recapitalisation continue. Piraeus Bank is down 13.61% while Eurobank Ergasias has fallen 12.12%.
4.25pm BST
Here's our report on the latest comments from Yanis Varoufakis, who has once more attacked the bailout proposals:
Greece's former finance minister Yanis Varoufakis has accused European leaders of allowing oligarchs to maintain their stranglehold on Greek society while punishing ordinary people in a line-by-line critique of the country's a86bn (61bn) bailout deal.
Varoufakis said the Greek parliament had pushed through an agreement with international creditors that would allow oligarchs, who dominate sections of the economy, to generate huge profits and continue to avoid paying taxes.
Related: Yanis Varoufakis: bailout deal allows Greek oligarchs to maintain grip
4.18pm BST
Some talk about a possible Greek election date:
Just exiting Villa Maximou, Athens. Seems to be some truth in the rumor that elections will be held on sept 20th #Greece
3.49pm BST
Back with the US and some strong housing figures.
US housebuilder sentiment rose to its highest level in nearly a decade, according to the National Association of Home Builders. Its market index rose from 60 in July to 61, in line with expectations and the highest since a matching reading in November 2005. The association's chief executive David Crowe said:
Today's report is consistent with our forecast for a gradual strengthening of the single-family housing sector in 2015. Job and economic gains should keep the market moving forward at a modest pace throughout the rest of the year.
3.23pm BST
Here are the reported terms of the ESM financing assistance for Greece, as revealed by Bild's Dirk Hoeren:
Confidential: #ESM proposal for Financial Assistance FacilityAgreement #FFA. Which fees #Greece has to pay for loans pic.twitter.com/KsV3EBjYTf
ESM Document On Greek Loan Facility Proposal: - 32.5 Year Maximum Weighted Average Maturity For Loan Facility
ESM Document: 10 Bps Margin Charged To Greece For Loans Disbursed - EUR86 Bln Loan Facility Over 3-Years
3.01pm BST
Here are the falls on the Dow:
2.45pm BST
Wall Street has opened sharply lower, predictably.
With oil still around six-year lows and the poor New York state manufacturing figures pointing to a slowdown, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has dropped 123 points or 0.7% in early trading. The US Federal Reserve is widely expected to begin raising interest rates this year, perhaps as soon as the September meeting, but such a move would cause concern if the world's biggest economy is starting to splutter.
1.51pm BST
Best not to pay too much attention to this US data, reckons Rob Carnell at ING (although it being a quiet August day, markets already have of course):
The latest Empire manufacturing survey is a good reminder of why we don't pay much attention to regional activity surveys - to be charitable, they are a bit choppy. In this case, the Empire survey fell from a moderate reading of 3.86, to -14.92. And you have to go right back to 2009 and the heart of the financial crisis to find anything this bad.
For what it is worth, and in our opinion, it is not a lot, the new orders and shipments series utterly collapsed this month. Inventories, which had been heading down, fell further, as did the average workweek (in complete contrast to the last labour market report). Interestingly, despite this apparently dismal; backdrop, although the index of employees fell slightly, it remained positive. Odder still, the outlook for six-months' time improved to 33.64 from 27.04, with new orders and shipments then expected to be strong or picking up. We doubt there is much merit in these expectations either.
1.45pm BST
Oh dear. A key survey of the US manufacturing sector has just hit its lowest level since the great recession, and markets aren't happy.
The Empire State index, which tracks factory activity in the New York area, slumped to -14.92, from +4.75 in July.
Oof - worst reading for Empire State index since April 2009 http://t.co/VBM4bk8prj pic.twitter.com/hmmmIZYlne
Big #DAX selloff pic.twitter.com/ysvWzNjf8U
12.32pm BST
Back in Greece, health minister Panagiotis Kouroumblis has predicted that autumn elections could be needed, Reuters reports.
"Elections are not the best choice ... but for the economy to pick up there must be political stability.
To implement such a serious programme with painful measures, you cannot do that without a popular mandate."
Tsipras mulling confidence vote soon, maybe in knowledge that he'll lose & have to call snap elections https://t.co/o9kLA3K1su #Greece
12.01pm BST
Angela Merkel is now attending a Christian Democrats party board meeting today; another chance to shore up support ahead of Wednesday's Greek bailout vote.
What counts in the Bundestag (much more than the IMF), meanwhile, is the endorsement of Germany's most popular politician, Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble, who single-handedly guarantees support from a number of sceptics within CDU/CSU.
His support voiced in Greece-sceptic tabloid Bild am Sonntag is the cornerstone for yet another unsurprising result this Wednesday.
11.21am BST
German finance ministry insists again that the involvement of the IMF in the third Greek bailout remains 'indispensable'#Greece
11.19am BST
Finally, some economic data. And the latest survey of eurozone trade suggests that the weaker euro is helping exporters.
The eurozone's trade surplus jumped to a26.4bn in June, according to Eurostat, up from a16.0bn a year earlier.
10.18am BST
One of Angela Merkel's close allies, Michael Fuchs, says he hasn't decided whether he'll support the Greek bailout in Wednesday's vote.
The crucial issue, Fuchs told Bloomberg TV, is whether the International Monetary Fund will definitely be involved in the deal:
.@flacqua M Fuchs says his vote on Greece is 100% down to IMF involvement in the deal - needs to be sure to vote PRO
9.59am BST
Greece's third bailout has cleared one hurdle this morning by being approved by the Lithuanian cabinet, according to the Baltic News Service.
#Lithuania's cabinet approves Greek bailout deal
9.51am BST
Angela Merkel could suffer the biggest rebellion of her career as chancellor, when the Bundestag votes on the Greek bailout deal.
German tabloid Bild reckons that 120 CDU/CSU MPs could oppose the plan, twice as many as broke ranks at an earlier vote in July.
German MPs rebelling against Merkel and third Greek bailout could more than double and exceed 120 this Wedn (Bild) https://t.co/BgSh79qd7W
9.32am BST
Another Syriza rebel, former finance minister Yanis Varoufakis, has been hard at work critiquing the bailout deal.
Spoiler alert: he's not a fan. Over 55 pages (plus appendices), the economics professor outlines why he fought against such a deal. Varoufakis fears it will merely further fuel Greece's "six year old debt-deflationary cycle", with impossible growth targets and unachievable measures:
Greece's Third MoU (Memorandum of Understading) annotated by @yanisvaroufakis http://t.co/vVQ9XbnAWy
9.12am BST
Greek bank stocks are rallying this morning, on relief that eurozone finance ministers agreed to the bailout deal on Friday night.
The ATG index is up by 1.5% in early trading in Athens, with financial shares gaining 5%.
9.06am BST
Two Syriza MPs who rebelled last week have warned that the party cannot rally around the bailout deal.
Thanasis Petrakos told the Mega TV channel that:
We do not intend to overthrow the government, but rather get it off the bailout course.
"The bailout cannot be the programme of Syriza, it falls outside its values, these are incompatible notions."
8.43am BST
A glance at last Friday's vote on the bailout deal shows that Alexis Tsipras is far from certain to win a confidence vote.
"The government has signed the third and most onerous bailout. All the negative consequences for the country and its citizens bear the signatures of Mr Tsipras and [ANEL leader] Mr Kammenos.
We have no confidence in the Tsipras-Kammenos government and of course will not give it if we are asked."
8.28am BST
Greece's energy minister also hinted this morning that the country could "go to elections soon", in as little as three or four weeks.
And if that happens, Alexis Tsipras would be pushing for an outright majority, Panos Skourletis told Skai TV:
"Based on my feeling of how things stand... I think such a goal is attainable,"
8.13am BST
A Greek government minister has dropped a clear hint that prime minister Alexis Tsipras will call a confidence vote in the coming days.
I consider it self-evident after the deep wound in Syriza's parliamentary group for there to be such a move [a confidence vote].
8.11am BST
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.
We'll be fighting off the August lull today, I fear, as policymakers and traders take a summer breather after a fairly turbulent 2015.
Related: Greece bailout deal: Angela Merkel expects IMF involvement
#greece #germany must be bad when merkel takes to evening tv to make her case
The events in China were a timely reminder to investors that all may not be well with the world's second largest economy, as the authorities attempt to reinvigorate a flagging economy, at a time when economic data in some of its key export markets are also showing signs of flagging.
Currency markets in particular will be looking for signs of further weakness in the Chinese currency given the comments by the Chinese central bank at the weekend, which warned markets to expect further two way volatility in the coming weeks. While Chinese authorities aren't likely to openly admit they want a slightly weaker currency, last week's actions saw the die cast and it seems improbable that the yuan won't slowly weaken in the coming weeks, and in the process exercise further downward pressure on global inflation.
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