Oil prices could fall to $20 a barrel says Goldman Sachs - as it happened

• Goldman Sachs says oversupply could push down oil prices
• Eurozone economic growth 'not enough' to create jobs
• Asian markets bank weekly gains after choppy trading session
• Biggest fall in UK housebuilding for two years

3.08pm BST

Time for a closing summary.

2.54pm BST

Over in Greece former prime minister Alexis Tsipras has derided any suggestion of his entering a 'grand coalition' as propaganda, Guardian correspondent Helena Smith reports from Athens.

With a mere nine days left before Greeks go to the polls, Alexis Tsipras has ratcheted up the rhetoric, emphatically ruling out forming any coalition with the centre right New Democracy.

What they are saying is that they won't restructure out debt if we don't embrace [Vangelis] Meimarakis.

He himself and his party are not only representatives of the most conservative lobby in Europe but representatives of regression, of the old, of decay, of corruption and scandals.

2.35pm BST

China no longer has such powerful economic leverage over the United States, according to analysis by Bloomberg business.

Bloomberg has put together four charts showing how China has a weaker hand over the US, ahead of President Xi Jinping's visit to Washington in October.

So Xi needs to ensure that America remains a happy customer, while President Barack Obama can rest easier from a trade standpoint, given that U.S. exports to China are a proportionally much smaller slice of the U.S. economy.

2.14pm BST

US producer prices were flat in August, pointing to benign inflation pressures that could weigh on the Federal Reserve's decision whether to hike interest rates next week, reports Reuters from Washington.

It continues

The unchanged reading in the producer price index last month followed a 0.2% gain in July, the Labor Department said on Friday. The drag on producer prices from lower crude oil prices and a strong dollar was offset by an increase in profit margins for apparel, footwear and accessories retailing.

2.01pm BST

This is the first image of Robert De Niro playing Bernie Madoff, the fraudster who cheated investors out of $65bn in the world's biggest ponzi scheme.

Michelle Pfeiffer plays Ruth Madoff in the HBO film Wizard of Lies.

1.43pm BST

What has Shakespeare's comedy Much Ado about Nothing got to do with exchange rates?

To find the answer you will have to read this speech* by Kristin Forbes, a member of the bank's monetary policy-setting committee.

My comments propose a new approach that puts more emphasis on the underlying reasons why the exchange rate moves.

In Shakespeare's play "Much Ado about Nothing", the word "nothing" was not only a reference to the tremendous fuss made about events which should have had no import, but also a play on the terms "noting" or "noticing" (which were pronounced as "nothing" in old English)....

...This insight on the importance of "noting" is also critically important when analysing how exchange rate movements affect inflation - and therefore monetary policy.

1.16pm BST

Another group of analysts have put a red line through their oil price forecasts.

This time it is Commerzbank that is lowering its forecast: the German bank is expecting the average price of Brent crude to be $56 in 2015 and $62 in 2016. West Texas Intermediate, the other global benchmark, is forecast at $51 a barrel in 2015 and $59 in 2016.

The oversupply of crude oil is only dwindling slowly and is likely to depress oil prices until far into next year.

1.02pm BST

The former boss of Standard Chartered, Peter Sands, could become an informal adviser to the British government, reports the Financial Times ().

A Number 10 source said no formal appointment had been made, but according to the FT:

It is understood that the role is informal and unpaid, and that Mr Sands will not have a direct role in regulation of the financial industry.

12.00pm BST

Goldman Sachs think there is an outside chance that oil could fall to $20 a barrel. But the Economist Intelligence Unit is forecasting a small price rise for oil in 2016.

11.48am BST

Wanted: bank regulators. Economic training essential, languages desirable. Helpful to know the difference between the BRRD and the CRR/CRD. Remuneration: competitive, but don't expect to earn a British banker's salary.

The European Central Bank is recruiting 230 staff to its bank watchdog division, increasing headcount by a fifth.

The hiring plan underscores the ECB's ambition to get to grips with an industry that triggered a financial crisis, hammering national finances and even threatening the euro currency.

The ECB has already carried out stress tests of top banks across the 19 countries in the euro zone and wants to delve deeper into their businesses to uncover further hidden risks.

11.31am BST

The latest fall in output in the UK construction industry ( see 09.32) is seen as bad news by analysts.

Howard Archer, chief UK and European economist at IHS, concludes that the "disappointing news" on the construction sector adds to signs that the economy is seeing "a softer third quarter".

Admittedly, construction output can be highly volatile from month to month...

The 2.7% month-on-month drop in housebuilding in July coupled with a 2.4% quarter-on-quarter drop in new orders for housebuilding in the second quarter is particularly disappointing news for the government which is currently prioritising the sector to deal with the UK's serious housing shortage - and many more houses need to be built.

There is a chronic housing shortage and although we welcome government plans to build 200,000 new homes by 2020, there is no chance of that number being built unless desperate skills shortages in the industry are addressed.

11.08am BST

The head of JD Weatherspoon is only the latest business leader to criticise the government's decision to increase the minimum wage.

Tim Martin's attack on the so-called 'National Living Wage' follows complaints from the association of convenience stores, carehome employers and the CBI.

The over-arching reason can, however, be expressed in a single word - globalisation. One of the effects has been substantially to depress, through migration and emerging market competition, the costs of labour. This has not been a happy experience for advanced economies, many of which have attempted to keep the natives happy by force feeding them with debt.

As we have learned, debt makes a poor, and potentially highly toxic, substitute, giving the illusion of rising living standards but not the substance.

Too often, cheap labour is used as a lazy alternative to productivity enhancing capital spending. A much higher minimum wage might shift the balance by better aligning the incentives for investment.

10.51am BST

Germany's finance minister, Wolfgang Schiuble, has warned against over reliance on central bank money at the expense of difficult economic reforms.

It should not serve as a way out of, or to neglect, what is necessary -- that is structural reforms.

10.27am BST

The governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney has said interest rates will go up and it seems people are getting the message.

10.04am BST

Just as analysts at Goldman Sachs predict the world could see a $20 barrel of oil because of oversupply, another set of energy experts have concluded that producers of expensive crude are beginning to cut production in response to the price collapse.

Oil that is expensive to produce is being driven out of the market according to the latest oil market report from the International Energy Agency. This means the strategy of the Opec oil cartel of not reducing supply in order to defend their market share, appears to be working, the IEA concludes.

Oil's price collapse is closing down high-cost production from Eagle Ford in Texas to Russia and the North Sea.

9.42am BST

There isn't much cheer for anyone looking for relief from sky-high house prices in London and the south east of England.

Housebuilding in the UK saw its biggest annual fall in more than two years, according to the latest data from the Office for National statistics.

Construction new orders dipped slightly overall in the second quarter of 2015 compared to the previous quarter and this was primarily driven by a decline in new private housing orders and private commercial orders. A general slowdown in contract award activity in the housing sector can be attributed in part to the uncertainty surrounding the UK General Election where developers adopted a 'wait and see' approach for new schemes.

9.31am BST

Breaking news: UK construction output declined in July, as a result of a fall in housebuilding.

9.09am BST

How low could oil prices go? Much lower, according to analysts at Goldman Sachs, who suggest oil could slide to just $20 a barrel.

Goldman analysts said:

The oil market is even more oversupplied than we had expected and we now forecast this surplus to persist in 2016 on further OPEC production growth, resilient non-OPEC supply and slowing demand growth, with risks skewed to even weaker demand given China's slowdown and its negative EM feedback loop... While not our base case, the potential for oil prices to fall to such levels, which we estimate near $20/bbl, is becoming greater as storage continues to fill.

Operational stress is a growing downside risk to our forecast. This further creates the risk that a slowdown in production takes place too gradually forcing oil markets to clear as they historically have, through a collapse to production costs once the surplus breaches logistical and storage capacity. While not our base case, the potential for oil prices to fall to such levels, which we estimate near $20/bbl, is becoming greater as storage continues to fill.

8.28am BST

Greece's elections later this month raise the intriguing possibility of a coalition between the traditional conservative party New Democracy and leftist former governing party Syriza.

Opinion polls have put Syriza and New Democracy neck and neck - far from the easy victory Syriza leader Alexis Tsipras imagined when he called the election to shore up support for the controversial bailout agreement.

This is the country's last chance...I am mature. I'm ready, with a plan, with the party's top brass and a united parliamentary group, to pull the country out of the crisis.

8.11am BST

Economic growth in the euro zone is still too weak to create enough jobs, according to a senior figure at the European Central Bank.

Benoi(R)t Coeuri(C), a member of the bank's executive board, told French newspaper group EBRA on Friday that growth was not sufficient for job creation.

Growth is still not strong enough to create a sufficient number of jobs.

Europe will first have to demonstrate its usefulness by creating more growth and more jobs.

The important thing is that Greece and its partners trust each other again. On this basis, there will be room for manoeuvre when it comes to adapting the programme after the elections, for example in terms of labour market reforms and tackling vested interests, provided that the objectives of the programme are met.

7.56am BST

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and the business world.

European stocks are set to make their biggest weekly gain since July, amid ongoing volatility on global markets.