George Osborne's housing-based revival stands on flawed foundations

The preconditions for another boom-bust are already in place thanks to the chancellor's strategy of heating up the property market

Napoleon was wrong. This is a nation not of shopkeepers but of estate agents. The UK economy ebbs and flows according to the state of the property market, sometimes gently but more commonly with giant waves of speculation followed by an inspection of the wreckage as the tide goes out. Warning: although the sea currently looks calm, the wind is freshening. The economy is sailing into a storm.

This course was charted by George Osborne three years ago in order to get the economy out of the doldrums. Back in 2012, the chancellor was a worried man. His budget had flopped, the recovery from the deep recession of 2008-09 had stalled, and his deficit reduction plan was way behind schedule. He was booed at the London Olympics and there was talk of him being reshuffled.

Related: Quarter of all stamp duty comes from 10 boroughs

Related: Housing bill needs radical, long-term measures to reform the market