Nobel prize in economics won by Angus Deaton - as it happened

Graeme Wearden

from on 2015-10-12 18:59 (#Q6XY)

Economists are applauding the decision to recognise Edinburgh-born microeconomist Angus Deaton for his analysis of consumption, poverty, and welfare.

7.22pm BST

And that's the end of the press conference.

The Princeton audience give their latest Nobel laureate another bracing round of applause, and Angus Deaton looks suitably pleased.

7.16pm BST

Final question for Angus Deaton - what are you most worried about in the future?

I wish getting the Nobel Prize enabled me to look into the future. I'd be talking to my stockbroker, Deaton smiles.

Inequality has gone beyond the point where it is helping us to get rich, and is now a very serious threat.

I worry about a world in which the rich get to write the rules which the rest of us have to obey.

7.11pm BST

Q: How did your non-priviliged background help with your understanding of inequality?

Deaton agrees that he wasn't well off until several years after he graduated. That was a valuable experience - but he's not recommending being poor!

If my father hadn't contracted TB in the second world war, that saved him from being killed on a commando raid, then I wouldn't have come into being.

7.08pm BST

Next, a question about the role of healthcare in fighting poverty.

Deaton says he's not a fan of the idea that either you get rich then get healthy, or get healthy then get rich.

7.04pm BST

Q: What are your future plans?

Deaton says that previous winners have already been in touch to wish him good luck with his time management. He's still excited about the work he's already doing, though, so he's not planning to drop it.

6.59pm BST

Deaton explains that his phone rang shortly after 6am, with a "very Swedish voice" on the line.

They spent a lot of time reassuring me that it wasn't a prank call, so I then began to worry that it actually was a prank, as that's the sort of thing they'd say, he jokes.

6.56pm BST

Q: What more has to be done to improve economic growth in Europe?

Deaton tells his audience in Princeton that the "great concern" is the slowing of economic growth in the developed world, even before the financial crisis.

That slowing growth poisons everything... particularly for those at the bottom.

There are many people in the rich world who are really suffering, and whose lives are getting worse. They see that as a consequence of what's happening elsewhere.

6.53pm BST

Onto questions (reminder, you can watch the press conference live here)

6.53pm BST

Deaton begins by paying tribute to his colleagues at Princeton, saying it is a place where you can work without worrying about the "extraneous things" that go on at so many universities.

This prize is a tribute to the whole Woodrow Wilson School, he adds, running through an impressive list of previous winners.

I thought..that's what I've been doing all these years.

6.47pm BST

Now Deaton is on his feet, and looking very happy as the audience give him a thunderous ovation:

6.45pm BST

Janet Currie, professor of economics at Princeton, says Deaton is enormously witty, well-read, great company, and a fine dinner party guest (so get those invite in quickly before his diary fills up)

6.43pm BST

Princeton's Dean Cecilia Rouse pays a warm tribute, telling Deaton that he's made the Woodrow Wilson School very proud.

6.42pm BST

Eisgruber also jokes that Deaton's latest book ,The Great Escape, is now selling extremely well.

6.39pm BST

.@Princeton is live-streaming the press conference for the 2015 Nobel economics laureate Angus Deaton right now: http://t.co/hhSuyrRKYg

6.39pm BST

Angus Deaton is a leader in his field, and also across the campus, Eisgruber adds, who has been a great mentor.

6.38pm BST

Christopher Eisgruber, president of Princeton University, is running through Deaton's career on this "extraordinary happy day".

First Scotland, to Cambridge University, then teaching at Bristol University, and then Princeton, where he is now the Dwight D. Eisenhower Professor of International Affairs

6.36pm BST

The Princeton economics department cancelled a lecture today, so that students could attend today's press conference instead, according to the University Press Club.

6.34pm BST

6.32pm BST

Over at Princeston University, a press conference with Angus Deaton is just starting.

The new Nobel economics laureate has taken his seat, to very warm applause

5.33pm BST

Over on Reuters' Breaking Views service, Edward Hadas has explained why Deaton's development of new research techniques that tracked how people actually behave has been so valuable:

His new models assume that purchases of each thing are influenced by the prices of many other things. Then there was the discovery that actual and expected incomes influence individual spending behaviour. He also noted that as the incomes of very poor people increase, they tend to eat nicer food. Followers discovered that the arrival of children changes what people buy.

Non-residents of economists' equation-land can smirk at such apparently trivial advances, but Deaton's next work is undeniably relevant to the real world. He showed, through a combination of observation and theory, that consumption patterns can be tracked accurately by using different sample groups at different times. This led to a massive increase in using relatively small household surveys to follow large economic trends.

4.11pm BST

A quick PS. Nicola Sturgeon, First Minister of Scotland, has congratulated Deaton - even though he's not a fan of independence.

Many congratulations to Professor Angus Deaton on winning Nobel prize for economics http://t.co/KEGA87tjCs

4.09pm BST

I think that's probably a good moment to pause this liveblog, although we'll aim to cover the key points from that Princeston press conference tonight.

If you're just tuning in, please do scroll back to 12pm sharp for rolling coverage of Angus Deaton's success.

4.09pm BST

Deaton's success has been warmly welcomed in Princeton, where he's worked since the early 1980s.

Cecilia Rouse, dean of the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, says she's "so thrilled" for him.

"This prize represents a lifetime of important contributions to the understanding of consumption, poverty and inequality. His work is sophisticated and careful, but also passionate. Beyond that, Angus is a tremendous teacher, mentor and colleague. Congratulations."

3.56pm BST

Bloomberg have pulled together nine things you need to know about Angus Deaton.

Here's a few:

9 things you need to know about Angus Deaton, the 2015 Nobel Economics laureate http://t.co/L24LEqkmVX pic.twitter.com/u0onDvWiXF

3.52pm BST

Development economist Jean Dreze, who has written several papers with Deaton on poverty and nutrition in India, has praised his contribution to shaping economic policy in India.

Associated Press has the details:

"Angus Deaton is not only a brilliant economist but also a formidable scholar and a great writer. He has shown how intelligent use of survey data can illuminate momentous issues of human welfare and contribute to public reasoning," Dreze said from the Indian state of Jharkhand.

"Deaton's work has important implications not only for the substance of economic policy in India, but also for the process of policy-making," he added.

3.47pm BST

Michael Strain, deputy director of economic policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute, also cheers Deaton's success:

Congratulations to Angus Deaton. An outstanding choice. His research is dead serious, something all economists can learn from.

3.45pm BST

Cambridge economic historian Charles Read believes that Angus Deaton has been (rightly) recognised for his book on inequality - The Great Escape: Health, Wealth, and the Origins of Inequality.

Read explain that Deaton's reputation for balance has also helped:

Although the book has not generated as many newspaper column inches or as much public recognition as Mr Piketty's blockbuster, Capital in the 21st century, the book's main conclusions have gone down well in the scholarly community.

As we wrote more than a decade ago: "Mr Deaton is perhaps the only economist at work in this area who is acknowledged by all sides both as authoritative and as having no ideological axe to grind."

My take on why Angus Deaton won this year's #NobelPrize in economics http://t.co/afFI3N3e4j pic.twitter.com/JqK4E3e4MB

3.17pm BST

Angus Deaton has lived in the US for many years, having been born and educated in Scotland. But he doesn't support Scottish independence.

All of them. All of the above.

I was very glad that, in the end, the [2014] referendum did not make me forced to choose between being British and Scottish.

3.08pm BST

Angus Deaton has spoken about his excitement when the call from Stockholm came though:

He told Adam Smith, chief scientific officer at Nobel Media, in an interview that:

My first thought was "Oh my goodness, it's really happening."

There are many, many, many distinguished economists out there who deserve this prize. So you always know it's a possibility, but you also know it's a fairly remote possibility, so I was absolutely delighted.

One's not actually dressed appropriately.....

"You have to understand what makes people tick." Angus Deaton on being awarded the Prize. https://t.co/AYbsjOQjaW #NobelPrize

2.43pm BST

You can pass on your own congratulations to Angus Deaton, by clicking here.

Lenni Montiel, UN assistant secretary-general for Economic Development, has already done so, writing:

Congratulations Prof Deaton from UN Department from Economic & Social Affairs. Your work is crucial for our efforts on poverty & inequalities".

The work of Angus Deaton @NobelPrize in Economics 2015 - important to understand how to eradicate poverty & reduce inequalities #SDGs

2.30pm BST

If you're just tuning in, here's the moment when Angus Deaton was announced as the winner of the 2015 Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel

2.24pm BST

Deaton is an excellent teacher and scholar of economics, says Dani Rodrik of Harvard Kennedy School, who is one of the Nobel Laureates's former students.

Delighted with the Nobel choice in economics. Angus Deaton is a great scholar.

I took my first econometrics course with Deaton. Learned more there than in all others combined.

2.23pm BST

US economist Tyler Cowen, of George Mason University, is applauding Angus Deaton's success, calling it "a brilliant selection".

He explains:

Deaton works closely with numbers, and his preferred topics are consumption, poverty, and welfare.

"Understanding what economic progress really means" I would describe as his core contribution, and analyzing development from the starting point of consumption rather than income is part of his vision. That includes looking at calories, life expectancy, health, and education as part of living standards in a fundamental way. I think of this as a prize about empirics, the importance of economic development, and indirectly a prize about economic history.

Why Angus Deaton won, from Tyler, http://t.co/ICut3InRP3, and from @ATabarrok http://t.co/1z2KO96DFq, an excellent choice.

2.21pm BST

Cambridge University, where Deaton studied and later taught, have added their voice to the congratulations:

Congratulations to Angus Deaton, Honorary Fellow of @FitzwilliamColl and Cambridge alumnus, on his 2015 Prize in Economics. #NobelPrize

2.06pm BST

Back in 2013, Deaton outlined his concerns about the corrosive effects of extreme wealth, in this interview.

He warned:

On the bright side, if the returns for going to school go up then there's a big incentive to go to school and that brings you up and that seems terrific. On the other hand if you don't have the talent to go to school you get left behind and there's nothing you can do about it.

And that sort of inequality doesn't seem like such a good inequality and the people who don't have that talent are relatively worse off than they were before.

Five minutes with Angus Deaton: "If the rich can write the rules then we have a real problem": http://t.co/ciGx1f0S1H

1.58pm BST

Even the FT's editor can't resist that joke....

Have I got news for you: Angus Deaton (Princeton) wins Nobel Prize for Economics

1.54pm BST

In his last book, Angus Deaton explained why it is so dangerous to concentrate so much wealth in the hands of a few people.

Deaton on the Pareto principle in The Great Escape (via http://t.co/bVkLD2EOfd): pic.twitter.com/nJcpM9xmqZ

1.42pm BST

Angus Deaton's success caps a long, distinguished and hugely influential academic career, says our economics editor Larry Elliott:

The broad themes of Deaton's work were laid out in a paper he co-wrote with John Muellbauer in 1980, An Almost Ideal Demand System.

This work explains how public policy affects consumer decisions and was hailed as one of the 20 most influential articles published since 1970 in the presitigious American Economic Review.

1.32pm BST

It's hard to distill one man's work into a few catchy phrases. So the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences has done really well with this four-page PDF on Deaton's research:

Since the incomes of some people decrease at the same time as the incomes of others increase, the bulk of individual variations in income average out when we compute the representative consumer's income.

The question of poverty traps is important in designing international assistance to the poorest countries. If assistance is geared towards encouraging economic growth, but increasing income still does not lead to noticeably increased calorie intake, there is an argument for reorienting assistance towards direct food aid.

Deaton's research on the relationship between income and calorie intake has shed important light on this issue: increased income does indeed lead to more calories being consumed. On the other hand, the evidence does not support the hypothesis that malnutrition explains poverty. In other words, malnutrition is largely the consequence of a low income, not vice versa.

1.20pm BST

US economist Peter Orszag is telling Bloomberg TV that Angus Deaton was a trailblazer in his use of data:

"Don't look at the aggregate. You need to go beneath the average." That's the message from Angus Deaton says Peter Orszag.

1.06pm BST

They'll be hanging out the bunting in at Princeton University today, again....

It's been an amazing few years for @Princeton, with recent economics Nobels to Deaton, Sims, Krugman and Kahneman, plus Nash before that.

12.52pm BST

Deaton has just received the ultimate compliment, from Harvard professor Amitabh Chandra:

Angus Deaton is the Obi-Wan Kenobi of Economics. Breathtaking range of work in poverty, health, healthcare, wellbeing, methods"

12.50pm BST

Twitter is abuzz with this sort of joke:

career shift gamble pays off in spades for disgraced panel show host https://t.co/1ytEigoQW3

12.48pm BST

Angus Deaton has gone off to celebrate, so here's some instant reaction to his success:

Angus Deaton certainly deserves it one for the Scots

12.31pm BST

Q: How did you feel when you got the news?

I felt pretty sleepy, Deaton jokes (he's in Princeton, I think, where it's currently 7.30am).

12.28pm BST

Q: Do you believe that extreme poverty will keep falling?

Angus Deaton says he does, but he doesn't want to be a "blind optimist". There are enormous numbers of people in the world still in poverty, and tremendous health problems among adults and children.

We are not out of the woods yet. For many people in the world, things are very, very bad.

12.26pm BST

Q: Given your work on poverty, what is your take on the refugee crisis?

Angus Deaton says the crisis has its roots in history:

What we are seeing now is the result of hundreds of years of unequal development in the rich world, which has left a lot of the world behind.

Those people who have been left behind want a better life, and that is putting enormous pressure on the boundaries between the poor world and the rich.

Poverty reduction in poor countries will solve the problem, but not for a very long time.

In the short term, stabilising political instability in war zones would help.

12.21pm BST

Angus Deaton is on the phone now, discussing his award.

12.21pm BST

Angus Deaton has helped to "transform the fields of microeconomics, macroeconomics, and development economics", say the Committee, by linking detailed individual choices and aggregate outcomes.

Here's the official announcement, outlining Deaton's three key contributions:

Answering this question is not only necessary for explaining and forecasting actual consumption patterns, but also crucial in evaluating how policy reforms, like changes in consumption taxes, affect the welfare of different groups. In his early work around 1980, Deaton developed the Almost Ideal Demand System - a flexible, yet simple, way of estimating how the demand for each good depends on the prices of all goods and on individual incomes. His approach and its later modifications are now standard tools, both in academia and in practical policy evaluation.

To explain capital formation and the magnitudes of business cycles, it is necessary to understand the interplay between income and consumption over time. In a few papers around 1990, Deaton showed that the prevailing consumption theory could not explain the actual relationships if the starting point was aggregate income and consumption. Instead, one should sum up how individuals adapt their own consumption to their individual income, which fluctuates in a very different way to aggregate income. This research clearly demonstrated why the analysis of individual data is key to untangling the patterns we see in aggregate data, an approach that has since become widely adopted in modern macroeconomics.

In his more recent research, Deaton highlights how reliable measures of individual household consumption levels can be used to discern mechanisms behind economic development. His research has uncovered important pitfalls when comparing the extent of poverty across time and place. It has also exemplified how the clever use of household data may shed light on such issues as the relationships between income and calorie intake, and the extent of gender discrimination within the family. Deaton's focus on household surveys has helped transform development economics from a theoretical field based on aggregate data to an empirical field based on detailed individual data.

12.18pm BST

Angus Deaton is perhaps best well known for the Deaton Paradox -- which explains sharp shocks to income don't appear to cause equally large shocks to consumption.

12.15pm BST

Deaton is being hailed for his academic work on the links between consumption and income - and how public policy changes can affect rich and poor.

The key to his work is measuring how public behaviour changes if, say, the government raises the VAT rate on food.

To design economic policy that promotes welfare and reduces poverty, we must first understand individual consumption choices. More than anyone else, Angus Deaton has enhanced this understanding.

By linking detailed individual choices and aggregate outcomes, his research has helped transform the fields of microeconomics, macroeconomics, and development economics.

12.08pm BST

Angus Deaton, aged 69, is based at Princeton, where he researches health, wellbeing, and economic development.

He is the Dwight D Eisenhower professor of economics and international affairs at the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs at Princeton.

Deaton's best known paper of recent times is "Income, Health, and Well-Being around the World: Evidence from the Gallup World Poll" in the Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2008.

His most recent book, The Great Escape: health, wealth and the origins of inequality, was well-received when it was published last year.

12.02pm BST

12.00pm BST

The Nobel Prize has been awarded to Angus Deaton, the microeconomist born in Edinburgh!

Here's the official announcement:

The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2015 was awarded to Angus Deaton "for his analysis of consumption, poverty, and welfare".

11.54am BST

Here's that live feed from Stockholm, in case you missed it earlier:

11.52am BST

The room is starting to fill up with 10 min to go to #NobelPrize announcement. #economics pic.twitter.com/KeEUTVvCid

11.49am BST

We're being told that the Nobel Committee will arrive in around 10 minutes to announce this year's winner(s).

11.45am BST

Journalists are crowding into the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences' smartest room, ready for the announcement.

Emma Lofgren of The Local Sweden has the word on the floor:

Gossip among journos is that they're hoping for a #NobelPrize winner with broad appeal and research background in eg consumer markets

20 minutes to go until the #NobelPrize in economics. It's particularly hard to guess, except it's pretty safe to bet on an American man.

On that note, I will guess it goes to Paul Romer, or Robert Hall. #NobelPrize in economics.

11.31am BST

The tension is mounting in Stockholm, with just 30 minutes until this year's prize is awarded.

The live video feed from the Royal Academy is now working, so just click the play button at the top of the blog to watch the final preparations.

11.19am BST

The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, the invisible hand behind the #NobelPrize in #economics @vetenskapsakad pic.twitter.com/vKPvvOT1g5

11.11am BST

Today's announcement has been months in the making -- and the lucky winner (or winners) must wait until December for the official presentation.

The process to select the Laureates in Economic Sciences: pic.twitter.com/P3zmkyPizt

11.10am BST

It's now six year since Elinor Ostrom became the first and only woman (so far) to win the Nobel Prize for economics.

She died in 2012, prompting "Undercover Economist" Tim Harford to write a lovely piece about her work on common resources, and how they should be shared for the collective good.

Lin was brought up in Depression-era poverty after her Jewish father left her Protestant mother. She was bullied at school - Beverly Hills High, of all places - because she was half-Jewish. She divorced her first husband, Charles Scott, after he discouraged her from pursuing an academic career, where she suffered discrimination for years. Initially steered away from mathematics at school, Lin was rejected by the economics programme at UCLA. She was only - finally - accepted on a PhD in political science after observing that UCLA's political science department hadn't admitted a woman for 40 years.

She persevered and secured her PhD after studying the management of fresh water in Los Angeles. In the first half of the 20th century, the city's water supply had been blighted by competing demands to pump fresh water for drinking and farming. By the 1940s, however, the conflicting parties had begun to resolve their differences. In both her PhD, which she completed in 1965, and subsequent research, Lin showed that such outcomes often came from private individuals or local associations, who came up with their own rules and then lobbied the state to enforce them. In the case of the Los Angeles water producers, they drew up contracts to share their resources and the city's water supply stabilised.

As we await the Nobel memorial prize in economics, a reminder of why Lin Ostrom, 2009 winner, was awesome: http://t.co/THy3M8t1c6

11.01am BST

Noah Smith, assistant professor of finance at Stony Brook University, has taken aim at critics of the Nobel economics prize (ahem).

Economics, he argues, is actually on an "upward trajectory", using higher quality data and developing better methodology to handle it. So stop carping.

Are the Nobels glorifying peace and literature, and setting these fields up as "on a par" with the natural sciences? If so, it's just one more reason why Nobel prizes are silly. If not, then shush.

Sure, econ is (mostly) empirical instead of experimental. It relies mostly on real-world data and natural experiments instead of laboratories. So what? The same is true of ecology and astronomy. I don't see people writing articles every year saying that these aren't real sciences and shouldn't get big gold medals.

I like Luyendijk's idea of adding a general social science prize to the Nobel roster. Nobels are silly anyway, so why not have one for every field? While we're at it, how about one in math and computer science, and one in psych/neuro/cognitive science? And one in visual arts?

And one in writing snarky point-by-point rebuttals in blog posts?

10.51am BST

Joris Luyendijk's trenchant criticism of today's Economics prize is getting plenty of attention in social media:

Don't let the 'Nobel prize' fool you, economics is not a science | Joris Luyendijk http://t.co/F3PZ1004zc pic.twitter.com/4EtHp2zaKh

10.42am BST

Here's a reminder of the winners over the last decade:

10.23am BST

One year ago tomorrow, French economist Jean Tirole was being plucked from relative obscurity at the Toulouse School of Economics to receive the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences.

TOP 10 most popular Laureates in Economic Sciences at http://t.co/B0vLAKQGhM right now: pic.twitter.com/HLEaJgz2zd

10.00am BST

With two hours to go until the big announcement, here's a scene-setter from Agence France-Presse:

The 2015 Nobel season wraps up Monday with the announcement of the winner of the economics prize, which could go to research into the job market or consumer behaviour, though no obvious frontrunner stands out.

The prize is to be announced on Monday at 1:00 pm (1100 GMT) by the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences in Stockholm, and will mark the close of a season that has seen the literature prize go to Belarussian writer Svetlana Alexievich and the peace prize awarded to Tunisia's National Dialogue Quartet, four civil society groups that helped rescue the only democracy to emerge from the Arab Spring.

9.48am BST

If the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences really want to get some attention, they could garland Greece's former finance minister.....

Has Varoufakis won the Nobel yet?

9.45am BST

Today's announcement will be streamed live from Stockholm in a couple of hours.

Here's a web feed (which I've tried to embed at the top of this blog too).

9.27am BST

The Bernanke bandwagon is building up speed....

Given the committee are likely to snub me again, I do hope Bernanke gets the Nobel.

9.23am BST

The Wall Street Journal has thrown a handful of potential contenders into the mix, a reminder that economics is a broad church:

Perennial favorites have included Paul Romer of New York University and Robert Barro of Harvard University for their work on growth theory.

Sir Anthony Atkinson of Oxford University and Angus Deaton of Princeton University have been tabbed in the past as frontrunners if the prize committee decides to recognize research on income inequality.

9.20am BST

The Nobel Prize team have produced some handy facts to tide us over until the announcement at noon -- including that only one woman has ever scooped today's prize:

Finally, in 2009, the 1ST woman was awarded the Prize in Economic Sciences - Elinor Ostrom! pic.twitter.com/wKrSRmzE5l

9.11am BST

It's Economics Nobel Prize Day. Just a reminder not to be That Guy... pic.twitter.com/6viFOerzFi

Maybe we need a Nobel Prize for pedantry too....

9.09am BST

Writing in the Guardian today, anthropologist and bank observer Joris Luyendijk argues that the Nobel economics prize is a thoroughly bad thing.

Joris reckons that treating economics like a physical science, ruled by fundamental laws which can be derived from data, leads to overconfidence, complacency, excess, and ultimately financial disaster.

A revamped social science Nobel prize could play a similar role, feeding the global conversation with new discoveries and insights from across the social sciences, while always emphasising the need for humility in treating knowledge by humans about humans.

One good candidate would be the sociologist Zygmunt Bauman, whose writing on the "liquid modernity" of post-utopian capitalism deserves the largest audience possible. Richard Sennett and his work on the "corrosion of character" among workers in today's economies would be another.

8.56am BST

Two economists who have served in the front line of the financial crisis are both in the mix for this years's award.

This year the jury may choose to honour someone who has combined a research career with the harsh reality of the financial crisis: France's Olivier Blanchard, who stepped down as chief economist of the International Monetary Fund this month, or Ben Bernanke, the former chairman of the US Federal Reserve.

Still, the favourites are a host of decidedly more low-key professors at US universities such as Indian-born Avinash Dixit of Princeton, American economist Robert Barro of Harvard and Finland's Bengt Holmstrom at MIT.

My book "The Courage to Act" is available today! Read about it here: http://t.co/emeLvGlVWg Visit http://t.co/EjdLjqnq6X

8.47am BST

Today's award may go to a British economist, Sir Richard Blundell, for his research into consumer behaviour, labour markets, and the impact of economic downturns on families.

A British economist who made his name studying wages, taxes and household spending is among the frontrunners to win the economics Nobel prize when it is announced on Monday.

Analysis by Thomson Reuters found that Sir Richard Blundell, the Ricardo professor of political economy at University College London, was cited in more academic papers over the last year than any other economist, indicating that his research on the impact of falling wages on consumer demand has proved hugely influential.

8.27am BST

Good morning.

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