Non-Farm Payroll: US economy created 211,000 new jobs in November - as it happened
Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news, as the crucial American non-farm payroll report is released
- Breaking: US jobs report beats forecasts
- US rate hike on the cards
- Mario The Grinch steals the Christmas rally
3.33pm GMT
Bill Gross, former chief of bond giant Pimco who now works at Janus Capital Management, also believes US interest rates will be raised this month.
Speaking to Bloomberg TV earlier, Gross said the Fed is "certainly set to go".
2.40pm GMT
Over to New York, and my colleague Jana Kasperkevic:
The US economy added 211,000 jobs in November, slightly better than expectations, with the unemployment rate remaining steady at 5%, the US Department of Labor announced on Friday.
Friday's report is the last before the Federal Reserve meets 15-16 December to determine whether it should raise interest rates. The last time the Fed raised interest rates was June 2006.
Related: US economy adds 211,000 jobs as interest rate hike nears
2.36pm GMT
In other news.... the oil price has fallen sharply, on the back of reports that the OPEC group decided not to cut production, at today's meeting in Vienna.
Oil turns negative as Reuters reports OPEC rolls over policy https://t.co/eK97ho4M0z pic.twitter.com/ToDfIvcTzY
OPEC watchers be like: pic.twitter.com/yBOSays9gy
2.33pm GMT
Brenda Kelly of London Capital Group, the City firm, says today's jobs report is just what the markets wanted - neither too hot, nor too cold.
"Judging by the market reaction, specifically 2-year yields,the market is very much expecting that this will only bolster a Fed hike this month.
"I think we got our Goldilocks number."
2.28pm GMT
Paul Ashworth of Capital Economics is confident that US interest rates will, after nine years, be raised this month:
The 211,000 gain in November's non-farm payrolls, along with the 35,000 upward revision to the gains in the preceding two months, would appear to seal an interest rate hike at the Fed's upcoming FOMC meeting, which concludes on the 16th December.
2.26pm GMT
Young people are still playing catch-up in the jobs market:
Only major group remaining with double-digit unemployment is teenagers (15.7%).
2.19pm GMT
Bloomberg's chief economist, Carl Riccadonna, believes that Federal Reserve will be very reluctant to raise interest rates a second time.
Jobs report signals economy ready for liftoff, but kernels of weakness confirm post-liftoff pace to be "glacial"
2.17pm GMT
The US mining industry has had a bad year, as producers are hit by the slump in raw materials prices and lay off staff.
Today's report says:
Employment in mining continued to decline in November (-11,000), with losses concentrated in support activities for mining (-7,000). Since a recent peak in December 2014, employment in mining has declined by 123,000.
Outside manufacturing and mining, the US economy is doing just fine: pic.twitter.com/BVFdxYBmV0
2.15pm GMT
There is one wrinkle in the jobs report - the number of people 'under-employed' rose a little.
BNP Paribas's economics team explains:
One downside surprise in the report was that the number of people working part-time involuntarily increased to 6.09 million from 5.77 million, and their share of the labor force also increased, to 3.9% from 3.7% -- likely related to the seasonal retail hiring.
2.11pm GMT
Here's more reaction to the jobs report:
November jobs report: Hiring +211K Unemployment rate unchanged, 5% Hourly earnings +2.3% y/y https://t.co/mb5JzDnBIz pic.twitter.com/wBrX3YDHxs
US employers have added an average of 218,000 jobs a month for the last 3 months https://t.co/mb5JzDnBIz pic.twitter.com/VzuP6doEmQ
The dip in hourly earnings to 2.3% y/y from 2.5% (six-year high) in Oct is a base effect; it reverses in Dec, when the y/y should be 2.6%.
"part-time work increased quite sharply ... but nearly all of the jobs added since the recession ended have been full-time" - Capital Econ
2.06pm GMT
There was little significant change to the US jobs market last month, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
It says:
In November, the unemployment rate held at 5.0%, and the number of unemployed persons, at 7.9 million, was essentially unchanged.
Over the past 12 months, the unemployment rate and the number of unemployed persons are down by 0.8 percentage point and 1.1 million, respectively.
1.52pm GMT
Joseph Lake of the Economist Intelligence Unit points out that the Fed won't raise rates fast unless wage growth merits it.
December rate rise a certainty. Debate shifts from when will Fed move to how fast. Key indicator shifts from job growth to wage growth.
1.51pm GMT
Shares on Wall Street are expected to rally a little when trading begins in 40 minutes.
The Dow Jones index is tipped to rise by around 100 points, or 0.6%.
Dow Jones +100 off of Jobs number... Triple digits everyday... #ThisIsDecember2015
1.44pm GMT
Here's the detail of those revisions to the non-farm payroll, showing more jobs created than expected in September and October.
And this of course: October revised to up 298,000 from 271,000. September to 145,000 from 137,000
1.44pm GMT
The dollar has strengthened against a basket of currencies.
And the yield (or interest rates) on American government debt is jumping.
2y US govt bonds yields hit fresh 5-Year high after strong US jobs data. pic.twitter.com/GvVtWbnKpe
10Y Intraday: pic.twitter.com/NgnxngiqZ9
1.37pm GMT
The instant reaction in the markets is that the Federal Reserve has clearance to raise interest rates this month, for the first time in nine (nine!) years.
Basically...this jobs report does nothing to derail a hike to Fed Funds interest rate in a couple weeks...
So, it looks like December, the first US rate hike in Twitter history. Last Fed hike: June 2006 Twitter launched: July 2006
1.35pm GMT
US wage growth has slowed to 2.3% per year, down from 2.5% in October.
That's broadly as expected.
1.34pm GMT
The US unemployment rate is unchanged at 5% - which is a seven and a half-year low.
1.33pm GMT
More good news - the jobs reports for September and October have been revised UPWARDS, to show that an extra 35,000 more people found work.
1.30pm GMT
Here. We. Go.
The US economy created 211,000 new jobs last month, according to the eagerly awaited Non-Farm Payroll.
1.27pm GMT
Oh the tension....
1.24pm GMT
Unless today's jobs report is a real shocker, the Federal Reserve is likely to raise interest rates at this month's meeting (in 12 days time).
And that's why today's report may NOT be the most important non-farm payroll in history.
"It would have to be a very large surprise - both in November and potentially a downward revision to October - to really change the outlook enough for the Fed to stop and reconsider the hike in December."
Why the upcoming jobs report may not be the most critical of all time https://t.co/5uLtwBhfyK pic.twitter.com/NNOOYtlpDV
1.10pm GMT
Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal (a big fan of Jobs Day), reckons shares will rally if the Non-Farm Payroll hits forecasts.
I think the best case scenario for stocks today would be coming in exactly as estimated by consensus. 200K, 5.0%, 2.3%.
1.08pm GMT
This is the biggest Jobs Report of 2015, says Conner Campbell of City firm SpreadEx.
Things are set to hot up as the last non-farm payroll of, not only the year, but before December's potentially decisive FOMC meeting, finally arrives.
Interestingly both the dollar and the Dow are already surging this morning; the former, understandably, is excited at the thought of an impending rate rise whilst the latter has jumped (in pre-market trading) on the hope that the months-long Fed-uncertainty may finally be coming to an end.
1.05pm GMT
Right! There are just under 30 minutes until the final major piece of economic news of the week - the US jobs report.
As our preview explains, economist are expecting to hear that around 200,000 new jobs were added to the Non-Farm Payroll in November.
Consensus +200K ... here's what to watch in the November jobs report https://t.co/UPvapnK0L7 pic.twitter.com/iW5TJas1gd
12.59pm GMT
Bloomberg have run a good piece about how Goldman Sachs were caught out by the ECB yesterday.
Here's a flavour:
Less than 24 hours after predicting that a "dovish surprise" from European Central Bank President Mario Draghi would send the euro tumbling as much as 3%, chief currency strategist Robin Brooks is rethinking his entire weak-euro thesis after the ECB and currency markets moved against him.
The euro rallied 3.1% to $1.0940 by the close of trading Thursday, the most since 2009, after Draghi delivered a stimulus package that was less aggressive than investors anticipated.
Goldman's Euro Prediction Didn't Quite Work as Well as Planned https://t.co/0pqjIc4is3 via @business
12.37pm GMT
Mark Carney is now arguing that companies should have a plan to become carbon neutral:
"How is your company planning to get to net zero emissions?" - reasonable question for investors says BoE's Carney pic.twitter.com/rO3NDYeuxM
Both Carney and Bloomberg agree target should be zero carbon. Bloomberg thinks we can go below 2C.
12.34pm GMT
Over in Paris, Bank of England governor Mark Carney is announcing a new body to educate companies about the impact of climate change.
It will be headed up by another big hitter - Michael Bloomberg.
Michael Bloomberg, the former New York City mayor, is to head a new global taskforce aimed at highlighting the financial exposure of companies to the risk of climate change.
Investors, insurers, banks and consumers will be provided with more information under plans for a voluntary industry-led code announced by the Financial Stability Board (FSB), the G20 body that monitors and makes recommendations about the financial system, at the COP21 Paris Climate change conference on Friday.
Related: Mark Carney unveils global taskforce to educate business on climate change
Businesses &investors with longer term horizons have leap-frogged govt on climate change action says @boe Carney pic.twitter.com/hZJozLxnlL
"It is a reasonable question to ask, [a company], what is your strategy to reduce your footprint relevant to the INDC." - Mark Carney #COP21
Measuring climate risk also enables investors to "judge management" says Mark Carney; implied dig at managers failing to do so? #COP21
11.31am GMT
The collective brilliance (?) of Finance Twitter reckons 211,000 new jobs were created in America last month. That's around 11,000 more than the market consensus.
The Twitter forecast is for 211K jobs pic.twitter.com/FbfXVHikd8
11.20am GMT
The vice-president head of the European Central Bank won't be receiving many Christmas cards from the City this year.
Vitor Constancio has told CNBC that investors, not the ECB, messed up yesterday.
#ECB VP Constincio to @JChatterleyCNBC: "The markets got it wrong" https://t.co/pdyizl0gYR pic.twitter.com/mjdO350iu7 /via @cnbcipr | a Hm...
They did indeed have higher expectations than were there and that's why they reacted like they reacted but that was not our intention....
After our meeting in October we said that we would reassess the degree of accommodation so we were talking about a recalibration of our measure. We were not talking about, ever, about a new type of QE2 or something like that. That's not what we were talking about."
ECB vice president Constancio: We have to recognize that the markets got it wrong with their expectations, that was not our intention
It's not us, it's you. *CONSTANCIO SAYS FAULT FOR DISCONNECT LIES WITH MARKETS
10.46am GMT
There are several important points to look for in the US jobs report, due in under three hours time.
First, the total number of new jobs created in November. Estimates range from an measly 130,000 to a punchy 275,000.
10.35am GMT
US Secretary of State John Kerry is visiting Athens today, and giving the country's government a show of support.
"I appreciate the way in which you have been approaching the economic reform effort and the challenges of the debt.
"It's not easy, and we want to try to be as helpful as we can to see Greece come out of this".
"I want to show you that Greece remains a(field) of stability in the region."
10.27am GMT
City economists are putting the boot into Mario Draghi this morning, after the ECB's new stimulus package failed to excite the markets:
Red-top day for notes: Commerzbank: "Draghi's tragedy". BTMU: ECB underwhelms. MS: "it will be more difficult for Draghi to steer markets."
Goldman's mea culpa on a disastrous #EUR call... "today further damaged the credibility of #ECB #QE" pic.twitter.com/QmFZBHowLw
Goldman rethinks euro strategy after it "badly misread" ECB meeting https://t.co/tBSGSxNAHe pic.twitter.com/HKcE0BcziR
10.00am GMT
The time-honoured game of guessing how many jobs were created in America last month is underway....
The last #NFPGuesses of 2015. #Sniff. 161k for me.
150,000 #NFPGuesses
Still pessimistic: 175K #NFPGuesses Bring it on @Jaubinho: 190K
Going out with a Bang!! 245k #NFPGuesses
9.35am GMT
Sales of Volkswagen cars slumped by a fifth last month, suggesting that UK customers may be discouraged from buying VW due to the emissions scandal.
9.28am GMT
Over in Vienna, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is beginning its meeting to discuss oil production.
It's quite a scrum, with reporters desperate to hear any clues about possible production cuts (although this seems unlikely)
Here we go again. Waiting for the start of the infamous OPEC ministerial gang bang in the stairwell. pic.twitter.com/0gMf95WRoT
The prize for opec's best dressed oil minister goes to Nigeria. pic.twitter.com/jFdyUEZy9c
CHART: The 40% drop in Brent over past 12 months has put crude below the break-even rate for ALL 12 #OPEC countries. pic.twitter.com/fMXiHPnk8w
9.03am GMT
Let's not forget that the European Central Bank DID announce new stimulus measures yesterday - not just as much as investors had expected.
Blessed is he who expects nothing, for he shall never be disappointed". So wrote Alexander Pope just for occasions like this.
If we had expected nothing, we would think the ECB has eased policy, cutting the Deposit Rate to -0.3% and extending the asset-buying programming.
8.56am GMT
In other news, pub chain Wetherspoon's has become the latest UK company to fall victim to hackers:
Wetherspoon hack: details of up to 657,000 customers stolen in latest cyber-attack https://t.co/0Zc3sjwlj2
8.52am GMT
European markets are sliding lower, down around 0.4% now.
Markets continue to digest an underwhelming ECB policy update due to internal committee disagreements on what was required to foster regional growth.
While deposit rates went further into negative territory and the quantitative easing (QE) stimulus programme was extended, there was no QE expansion as markets were expecting to help deliver a boost to Eurozone growth and counter deflationary risks..
8.30am GMT
It's not all gloom this morning. German factory orders have beaten expectations.
German new orders jump 1.8% MoM. September slump revised upwards, from -1.7% to -0.7%. And so it starts.
Ahh. Draghi must have known about those good German Factory Orders
8.12am GMT
The shadow of Mario the Grinch is falling over Europe's stock markets again.
Shares are falling in early trading, with the FTSE 100 dropping by 0.2% or 15 points to 6260.
8.02am GMT
City AM have dubbed Mario Draghi "The Grinch", blasting the ECB chief for ruining hopes of a decent Santa Rally in share prices this month.
Santa's sack was half-empty," said Ken Wattret, an economist at BNP Paribas.
"As plenty of children will discover on the morning of the 25th, it's all about expectations and having built them up, the ECB unfortunately failed to deliver fully.
7.56am GMT
When financial crisis veterans gather in a few decades time to chat about the good old days, yesterday's drama will probably get a mention:
Draghi makes history: Thursday was the 3rd biggest intraday range (by percentage) for the Euro of all time. (via DB) pic.twitter.com/hVwuVU8vQy
7.53am GMT
Investors appear to be losing faith in central bankers' ability to keep asset prices pumped up, after years of monetary stimulus.
Chris Weston of IG fears that traders have also lost faith in ECB chief Mario Draghi, amid speculation that hawkish members of his committee blocked new stimulus:
The European Central Bank (ECB) undoubtedly have lost some credibility, or at least that is the line from most economists who were all calling for a shock and awe type of approach.
One question that was raised is why Mario Draghi didn't try and water down expectations somewhat in one of his recent speeches throughout November. Did he not expect such strong German opposition? We are left with a market that is now of the belief that we are unlikely to see further easing and one that is fully schooled in understanding positioning and expectations and that when a central bank fails to live up to expectations the reaction can be violent.
Big selloff in reaction to #Draghi shows how far market addiction has got to a single prescription drug,central banks.No other game in town
7.45am GMT
Stock markets across Asia have fallen sharply today, as investors react to yesterday's damp squib from the European Central Bank.
Japan's Nikkei has tumbled 2.1%, and China's Shanghai market was close behind, following Thursday's big selloff in Europe.
Related: Asia Pacific shares join global slump as ECB fails to deliver stimulus
7.28am GMT
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, business and the eurozone.
After the drama and disappointment of ECB Day on Thursday, attention now turns to America.
Hello Friday! From #ECBguesses to #NFPGuesses. Your votes please. pic.twitter.com/3GtHIyzQQA
Our European opening calls: $FTSE 6235 down 40 $DAX 10704 down 85 $CAC 4691 down 39 $IBEX 9987 down 106 $MIB 21856 down 140
Continue reading...