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California Basking in Record Amount of Electricity from Solar

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Economics Still Not Quite There? (Score: 0)

by Anonymous Coward on 2014-09-19 14:24 (#2SM0)

I really, really wanted to get into solar for my home a year or two ago, until I discovered the hard facts.

1. It is completely unfeasible for a typical home to go completely "off-grid" due to the humongous cost, space, and maintenance required for all the batteries to smooth the day/night load patterns.

2. So the vast majority of installations are "grid-tied", meaning they pull power from the normal grid, and sometimes feed power back into it.

3. Even with the generous incentives, pay-back time for an initial investment is at least 4-7 years, during which time that $20,000 might have been better spent in a mutual fund.

4. I didn't really have $20,000 lying around anyway.

There are leasing options that mitigate some of this, but not entirely. Do you really want to be paying Elon Musk (investor in SolarCity) every month in perpetuity instead of your electric company?

Re: Economics Still Not Quite There? (Score: 2, Informative)

by kwerle@pipedot.org on 2014-09-19 16:06 (#2SM4)

I'm a coder for SolarCity.
1. It is completely unfeasible for a typical home to go completely "off-grid" due to the humongous cost, space, and maintenance required for all the batteries to smooth the day/night load patterns.
And there are rainy days. And rainy weeks. That's what the grid is for.
Batteries will be cheaper when Elon finishes the GigaFactory - but that's no reason to wait for solar - just for the batteries.
2. So the vast majority of installations are "grid-tied", meaning they pull power from the normal grid, and sometimes feed power back into it.
Like a big battery.
3. Even with the generous incentives, pay-back time for an initial investment is at least 4-7 years, during which time that $20,000 might have been better spent in a mutual fund.
.. payback in 4-7, leaving you with more than 20 years of profit. Unless you plan on moving in the next 4-7, in which case things get a bit murky. I think the general population does not yet appropriately value panels on the roof of the house they're buying.
4. I didn't really have $20,000 lying around anyway.
Next point...
There are leasing options that mitigate some of this, but not entirely. Do you really want to be paying Elon Musk (investor in SolarCity) every month in perpetuity instead of your electric company?
So this is the bottom line: you would rather pay your electric company to continue business as usual instead of lowering your energy costs and (if you care) carbon footprint by getting panels installed for free on your roof.

Seriously. WTF?

Re: Economics Still Not Quite There? (Score: 1)

by zafiro17@pipedot.org on 2014-09-19 18:52 (#2SM8)

Interesting to have a solarcity guy with us. And Bryan has a working solar system at his place, if memory recalls. Looking forward to hearing more here. I'm absolutely getting ready to build a system when I get a chance. I'm at a higher latitude with a not-huge roof, but the hell with it, it's too interesting not to try, and I'm looking forward to those 16 years of lowered electrical bills. There are apparently some tax credits too.

Glad those Californians are basking in solar, since they seem to be low on water this year. Can't have it all?

Re: Economics Still Not Quite There? (Score: 1)

by bryan@pipedot.org on 2014-09-20 10:34 (#2SN8)

I've added some info on my solar installation to my journal:

Solar Power - Part 1
Solar Power - Part 2
Solar Power - Part 3

Also, you can view my hourly production stats since August 2013 in a neat graphical form or the raw table form.

Re: Economics Still Not Quite There? (Score: 0)

by Anonymous Coward on 2014-09-20 12:53 (#2SNA)

Hey Bryan nice writeup! FYI those 3 links all point to episode 1. It took some elite URL hacking to read the rest of your series.

Glad you like your system. A little surprised your payback is that long even though the investment was under $10K.

Just two critical comments:

1. What about that reliance on the remote Internet service for all monitoring and reporting? What happens if they go out of business? I'd much rather see a local option.

2. Your Leaf comparison is a bit slanted. That's a $30,000 car versus my well equipped 35mpg gas econobox that cost less than half that. That's an awfully big differential to make back on 50-100 miles per day (say $7 in gas) even with your "free" electricity.

Re: Economics Still Not Quite There? (Score: 2, Interesting)

by bryan@pipedot.org on 2014-09-20 21:45 (#2SNT)

A little surprised your payback is that long even though the investment was under $10K.
Ya, I live in an area with very cheap electricity. With my bill previously only being $85 a month, it takes a while to pay off $9000.
What about that reliance on the remote Internet service for all monitoring and reporting? What happens if they go out of business? I'd much rather see a local option.
I would too. That's why I slurp the data off their servers into my own database every day. If they go out of business, I'll at least still have my current data set. Of course, their own webpage is set up to display the statistic data too - I'm sure a lot of their customers wouldn't have the ability/desire to code up their own database and host a web interface like I did.
Your Leaf comparison is a bit slanted. That's a $30,000 car versus my well equipped 35mpg gas econobox that cost less than half that.
I totally agree that the Leaf is more expensive than similar sized ICE cars. Sure, I'd rather have only spent $15-20k on it, but I really wanted an electric plug in vehicle. When I bought my VW Jetta new in 2002, I swore that it would be my last gas-powered vehicle. For many years, while all the major car manufacturers totally ignored EVs, I dreaded having to go the home-made route and build everything myself if my Jetta ever died. But then Tesla happened. The Prius became popular. Nissan bet big on the Leaf, and even Chevy came out with the Volt.

So, I was already looking to replace my 12 year old car with something... Here are the models that I test-drove/researched:
  • Plug in Prius (nearly no range on EV alone due to small 4.4 kWh battery)
  • Chevy Volt (over $50k and little more than a hybrid with a small battery)
  • Tesla Model S (nice, but too expensive for my blood, sorry)
  • Nissan Leaf (correct range, zero emissions, heck of a lot cheaper than a Tesla)
Obviously, I picked the Leaf. The U.S. has a nice $7,500 federal rebate on the first "X" number of EV cars produced for each model. I was expecting to keep driving my ageing Jetta for a few more years, but the "X" number was just about to be reached for the Leaf. So I bought the bullet a little early so that I could get the full federal rebate.

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