Anxiety and economic stress among federal employees as Republicans and Democrats remain deadlocked on billMore furloughs, more anxiety and more economic stress are bearing down on federal employees as the shutdown of the federal government continues into its fourth week with Republicans and Democrats at a standstill on negotiating a budget deal.There's no sight of this ending and we're starting to wonder if we're going to be made whole and if this is going to continue into the next round of pay, which is what we're headed into now. On Friday, we will be missing our first full paycheck," Johnny Jones, council secretary treasurer for the American Federation of Government Employees (AFGE) TSA Council 100, and a TSA employee in Dallas-Fort Worth, Texas, said. Continue reading...
We hear your stories of how you balance the family finances, from buying own brands to cutting right back on weekly shopFood prices are ridiculous, but it's the fact they are still rising that is keeping me awake at night," says Nikki of the strain caused by higher grocery bills.The mother of two from Aberdeenshire adds: My weekly shop with in-between top-ups now costs in excess of 220 and is fast becoming unaffordable. Before 2020, I was spending 135 a week." Continue reading...
Increase was largely driven by a 4.1% increase in gasoline prices despite Trump's campaign pledge to end inflation'Prices continued to rise in September, increasing at an annual rate of 3%, according to the latest government inflation report.The September 2025 consumer price index (CPI) was published approximately two weeks later than usual due to the federal government shutdown, which haltedall Bureau of Labor Statistics operations. Continue reading...
Shares in oil companies jump after US sanctions Russian energy firms, while manufacturers see weak prospects aheadYesterday's weaker-than-expected UK inflation report has sparked chat that the Bank of England could cut interest rates sooner than expected.Deutsche Bank say there is now an interesting debate" on whether there may be enough ammunition for the Bank's monetary policy committee to cut borrowing costs as soon as its next meeting in early November.What's the case for November? Relative to the Bank's projections, growth has surprised to the downside, private sector AWE growth has surprised to the downside, unemployment has risen in line with Bank expectations, and inflation now sits a healthy amount below the Bank's projections. Indeed, one could make the argument that the ingredients for a November rate cut are there.So, why not November? We think three things will be important for the MPC to see before dialling down restrictive policy again. One, the MPC may want to see some indicative signs that inflation expectations are coming down - and we should see some signs of tempering in the coming months as spot CPI slows in Q4-25. Two, the Budget. Consolidation is one part of the puzzle. The other is what the Chancellor does to trim 2026 CPI - something we think will be very important given our projections of ~2.6% y/y CPI next year. And third, pay settlements. The MPC has yet to see the Low Pay Commission's NLW announcement and subsequently what that does to pay settlements. We won't have much detail on private sector pay deals until after the November meeting. Put simply, there's a lot more information to be had in December than November.The chips manufactured by the affected manufacturers are important parts used in electronic control units, etc., and we recognize that this incident will have a serious impact on the global production of our member companies.We hope that the countries involved will come to a prompt and practical solution." Continue reading...
The world will be pushed into a recession, but perhaps we can build something more promising from the piecesThe world economy hinges on the success or failure of artificial intelligence. It's becoming apparent that we are probably doomed either way.Employment growth is stuck and wage growth is slowing, especially among low-paying jobs. Loan delinquencies are rising, driving an increase in bankruptcies. Consumer confidence has collapsed. And reckless policymaking is taking its toll. Donald Trump's trade war is cutting farmers' access to the Chinese market and manufacturers' access to Chinese rare-earth magnets. His clampdown on migration is hitting access to labor, from agriculture to healthcare. The drawn-out government shutdown is starting to sap economic growth. Continue reading...
Inflation figures raise chance of December interest rate cutEurostar is to start running doubledecker trains through the Channel tunnel to meet growing demand for international rail travel from the UK - but not until 2031.The rail operator announced it had signed a 2bn (1.7bn) deal for at least 30 - and up to 50 - new trains from the manufacturer Alstom. Continue reading...
Hourly rate to increase by 95p to 14.80 in London and by 85p to 13.45 for the rest of the countryAlmost half a million workers are to receive a pay boost after it was announced that the real living wage paid voluntarily by 16,000 UK companies will rise to 13.45 an hour.Distinct from the national living wage, which is a statutory minimum, the real living wage is calculated each year based on the cost of essentials, and is paid by more than half of the companies in the FTSE 100. Continue reading...
Economic development strategist who helped make Glasgow a cultural centre of international standing in the 1980s and 90sWhen Stuart Gulliver arrived in Glasgow in 1978 to work as an economic development strategist, the city was desperately in need of a plan. Its population had crashed by almost 25% in the previous 20 years. Its swagger as the empire's second city, with a Manhattan-style grid and a wealth of grandiloquent but by then decaying architecture, had evaporated. Its factories, shipyards and steelworks were closing.The people of Glasgow were getting steadily poorer and sicker. And as one wit suggested at the time, its only tourists were people who had got lost trying to go somewhere else. Continue reading...
by Richard Partington and Heather Stewart on (#70XBE)
Chancellor, who is expected to announce tax rises and spending cuts, says effect of leaving bloc worse than predictedRachel Reeves has blamed a heavier than anticipated blow from Brexit and austerity for forcing her to take action to balance the books at next month's budget.In her clearest attempt to draw Brexit into the framing of her imminent tax and spending decisions, the chancellor said leaving the EU was turning out to have caused more damage than official forecasters had previously outlined. Continue reading...
Andrew Bailey says a close look is needed at the private credit market after collapse of two big US firmsThe governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, has warned recent events in US private credit markets have worrying echoes of the sub-prime mortgage crisis that kicked off the global financial crash of 2008.Appearing before a House of Lords committee, the governor said it was important to have the drains up" and analyse the collapse of two leveraged US firms, First Brands and Tricolor, in case they were not isolated events but the canary in the coalmine". Continue reading...
Crash that hit apps and websites around world demonstrates urgent need for diversification in cloud computing'Experts have warned of the perils of relying on a small number of companies for operating the global internet after a glitch at Amazon's cloud computing service brought down apps and websites around the world.The affected platforms included Snapchat, Roblox, Signal and Duolingo as well as a host of Amazon-owned operations including its main retail site and the Ring doorbell company. Continue reading...
Andrew Ross Sorkin's new book 1929 takes readers back to the crash that changed the US and looks at what we can learn from it todayAndrew Ross Sorkin's first book, Too Big to Fail, was a bestseller about the financial crisis of 2008, published the following year. His second, 1929, out this week, takes readers Inside the Greatest Crash in Wall Street History - and How it Shattered a Nation".It's been 16 years between books, but Sorkin hasn't been idle. A columnist for the New York Times, he founded its DealBook newsletter and summit; he's a Squawk Box co-anchor for CNBC; and after Too Big to Fail was filmed by HBO, he co-created Billions, a huge hit for Showtime starring Damian Lewis and Paul Giamatti. Continue reading...
by Kalyeena Makortoff Banking correspondent on (#70VEP)
First Brands and Tricolor failures raise concerns for wider financial sector, including traditional banksThe collapse of two US firms, First Brands and Tricolor, has shone a light on private credit and its growing influence in the global economy.The failures have led to ballooning losses at traditional banks, and, coupled with worries about the health of US regional banks, have raised concerns about weak lending standards and potential threats from an opaque corner of the so-called shadow banking sector. Continue reading...
Worries over private credit, tax and spend, skittish bond markets and tariff chaos dominate meeting in WashingtonThe security blanket is covering us, but maybe we have a foot out in the cold." That was the typically colourful warning from the International Monetary Fund's managing director, Kristalina Georgieva, this week to its gathering of finance ministers in Washington.At its spring meetings in April, the IMF said the erratic trade policies emanating from the White House, half a mile away from its glass and steel HQ, amounted to a major negative shock" for the global economy. Continue reading...
Wall Street sounds alarm over strain throughout car lending market as experts warn of potential risks for wider economyAlarm bells are ringing on Wall Street. The recent collapses of Tricolor, a used car seller and sub-prime auto lender, and First Brands, an auto parts supplier, have put the finance industry on edge, almost two decades after problems in the sub-prime mortgage lending market set the stage for the global financial crisis.When you see one cockroach, there are probably more," Jamie Dimon, the JPMorgan Chase CEO, ominously cautioned analysts this week, after the US's largest bank disclosed a $170m charge tied to Tricolor's bankruptcy. Everyone should be forewarned on this one." Continue reading...
International Monetary Fund managing director Kristalina Georgieva urges more attention to the non-bank financial institutions, as the world may have a foot out in the cold"Britain's trade deficit has widened, partly due to a drop in exports to the European Union and the US.New trade data shows that UK exports to the United States fell by 700m in August, due to falls in exports of machinery and transport equipment, chemicals and material manufactures."The fall in exports of machinery and transport equipment was because of reduced exports of both aircraft and mechanical power generators (intermediate) to Germany, while the decrease in exports of chemicals was because of reduced exports of medicinal and pharmaceutical products to Germany and Ireland.The ONS also reported that the total underlying trade deficit widened in August to 5.2bn, up 1.7bn, led by a rise in imports from the EU.The UK's favourable trade deal with the US is reaping no identifiable growth benefits as yet for the UK, the ONS reported that exports of goods to the US, including precious metals, was lower by 0.7bn. The trade deficit was down to trade in goods, where the deficit widened by 3bn in the three months to August, the trade in services surplus increased by 1.3bn in the same period. Continue reading...
Kristalina Georgieva urges vigilance over very significant shift of financing' after collapse of Tricolor and First BrandsThe head of the International Monetary Fund has admitted that worrying about the risks building up in non-bank lending markets keeps her awake at night.Kristalina Georgieva on Thursday urged countries to pay more attention to the private credit market, after the failure of the sub-prime auto lender Tricolor and the car parts supplier First Brands. Continue reading...
Inflation and a worsening job market are top of mind for many Americans, even among the president's Maga baseDonald Trump is not making America feel great again.Nine months into the second Trump administration, Americans are feeling pretty crummy. More than half - 53% - believe the economy is worsening, according to the latest survey conducted by Harris for the Guardian. That's just slightly better than the 58% who thought it was going downhill in late April, when financial markets were still reeling from the president's liberation day" tariffs. About 60% think the cost of living has gotten worse since the start of the year; 47% say the job market is worse. Continue reading...
Party has promised to stand back as weakened prime minister prepares for crucial no-confidence voteThe French Socialist party says it will fight to introduce a flagship wealth tax to raise revenue by targeting France's richest people, as the divided parliament prepares to begin debating next year's budget.Boris Vallaud, the head of the Socialist party grouping in parliament, said on Wednesday that taxing very high-wealth individuals in France was one of our principal battles and we're going to put all our energy into it". Continue reading...
Exclusive: Chancellor hints at rises and calls out past scaremongering' over VAT on private schools and changes to non-domsRachel Reeves has said higher taxes on the UK's wealthy will form part of next month's budget, as she shrugged off the scaremongering" and bleating" of her critics, and stressed her determination to repair the public finances.Speaking in Washington, where she is attending the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the chancellor told the Guardian there won't be a return to austerity" and hinted at tax increases for the most well-off. Continue reading...
by Kiran Stacey, Patrick Butler and Jessica Murray on (#70S6H)
Exclusive: Impact of austerity cannot be undone by end of parliament despite above-inflation funding, analysis findsCouncils in England will still be poorer by the end of this parliament than they were in 2010 despite Labour's funding increases, according to analysis by the Institute for Government (IfG).Funding cuts from 2010 to 2019 were so severe that they left gaps that could not be filled even by five years of above-inflation increases, leaving local authorities increasingly reliant on emergency funding and capable of providing only legally mandated services, the report shows. Continue reading...
Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial newsSemiconductor firm ASML is continuing to benefit from the AI boom, but also expects a significant fall in demand from China next year.ASML, which makes machines which make chips, has reported a small slowdown in sales in the last quarter this morning. It posted total net sales of 7.5bn in the third quarter of this year, down from nearly 7.7bn in Q2.On the market side, we have seen continued positive momentum around investments in AI, and have also seen this extending to more customers, both in leading-edge Logic and advanced DRAM. On the other hand, we expect China customer demand, and therefore our China total net sales in 2026, to decline significantly compared to our very strong business there in 2024 and 2025.This suggests that the slump in the demand for luxury is starting to level off. There was also growth in sales to China, which had been hit by a slump in recent years. Analysts now expect the leather goods sector, especially Luis Vuitton and Christian Dior, could fuel growth for this sector into next year. Continue reading...
Labour is misreading the economics - leaving it unable to deal with the G7's worst inflation and flat living standardBloomberg's headline said it all: UK Faces Worst G-7 Inflation and Flat Living Standards, IMF Says". The International Monetary Fund warns that inflation will be higher in the UK than in any other major advanced economy - including in the US, where Donald Trump's tariffs are driving up costs for American consumers. This while GDP growth per head crawls at 0.4%, the weakest of any major economy. Real wages have stagnated for 11 months. Meanwhile, official figures show that unemployment has climbed to 4.8%, the highest since spring 2021. Forget talk of Britain's upgraded growth"; the economy, under Labour, is running hot only for those collecting profits.The Joseph Rowntree Foundation (JRF) projects that by 2029 average disposable incomes will be 570 lower than today, a fall of 1.3% - the sharpest drop in living standards since records began in 1961. This isn't a simple case of prices getting ahead of demand. What Britain faces is profit inflation: prices are rising while wages stand still. As Lord Keynes noted, this isatransfer from labour to capital - an increase in mark-ups, not in productivity.Do you have an opinion on the issues raised in this article? If you would like to submit a response of up to 300 words by email to be considered for publication in our letters section, please click here. Continue reading...
A cost of living crisis is not inevitable if there is the will to stop companies extracting profits from Britain's essential servicesThe profound squeeze on living standards has become the defining, explosive feature of British politics. Each week seems to bring more pain in the form of higher bills. Water bills are forecast to rise again next year, on top of the energy price cap that recently increased to 1,755 a year. For rightwing populists, the cost of living crisis is the gift that keeps on giving, allowing them to blame the experience of declining living standards on migrants and perceived outsiders". Unless Britain's crisis of livability is addressed, Labour will probably be the handmaiden of a Reform victory.We often hear that the cost of living crisis is caused by rising energy prices linked to Vladimir Putin's war on Ukraine, or by disruption caused by the climate crisis. These factors, while hugely important, are not the whole story. The structure of Britain's economy amplifies the effects of inflation and makes life more expensive. When external shocks hit our economy, they translate into people paying even higher prices here than they do elsewhere. This is because essential services, such as energy, housing and transport, have been designed as opportunities for profit extraction.Mathew Lawrence is director of the Common Wealth thinktank Continue reading...
by Richard Partington Senior economics correspondent on (#70QTE)
Inflation also hitting sales, says industry body, as Barclays says credit card spending fell in SeptemberUK retail sales growth cooled last month as concerns over inflation and looming tax increases in Rachel Reeves's autumn budget weighed on British consumers.In a snapshot before the chancellor's tax and spending event next month, the British Retail Consortium (BRC) said total sales rose more slowly in September than in recent months. Continue reading...
by Richard Partington Senior economics correspondent on (#70QTF)
Author of influential report on the gig economy says new watchdog can make progress on workers' rightsLabour has appointed Tony Blair's former policy chief to lead Britain's new jobs market watchdog being created by the government to enforce its strengthening of workers' rights.Matthew Taylor, who led the influential Taylor report on the gig economy and modern working practices for Theresa May's government, will become the chair of the Fair Work Agency when the body launches next April. Continue reading...
by Amy Hawkins Senior China correspondent on (#70QCP)
Trump has threatened 100% tariffs after Beijing's fresh curbs on rare earths, a month before deadline to agree a dealWith nearly a month to go before the deadline for the US and China to reach a deal in their trade war, goodwill between the two countries appears to have been swept off the table in recent days. China announced that it was once again restricting the export of critical minerals, prompting the US president, Donald Trump, to announce tariffs of 100% on US-bound Chinese exports, scuppering - at least for now - hopes that global economic turmoil could be averted. Continue reading...
Wall Street rallies at the open as fears over US-China trade war easeThe National Lottery operator Allwyn is to merge with Greece's leading gambling company OPAP to create a global listed gaming giant worth about 16bn (13.9bn).Allwyn, which owns a near-52% controlling stake in Athens-headquartered OPAP, has agreed an all-share tie-up with OPAP that will see the combined group renamed Allwyn. Continue reading...
by Phillip Inman, senior economics writer on (#70QCQ)
Thinktank says UK could raise significant funds by tackling some of the longstanding inefficiency and unfairness' in tax systemRachel Reeves must avoid a half-baked dash for revenue" or risk damaging economic growth as the chancellor seeks to close a large gap in next month's budget, the Institute for Fiscal Studies has said.The tax and spending thinktank has warned there was a danger the chancellor would create unnecessary economic damage" if she chooses to stitch together unrelated tax-raising measures to cut the shortfall in government revenues and keep within her fiscal rules. Continue reading...