Economics | The Guardian

Nigel Farage will be wooing corporate guests at the NEC in Birmingham as his party aims to build on recent successesFags, booze, hunting and cryptocurrency: if the brochures for the Reform UK conference in Birmingham are anything to go by, executives turning up to see Nigel Farage's party will find an eclectic mix.Starting on Friday, the party leading the opinion polls will hold its next step" conference at the National Exhibition Centre, with a plan to show UK plc that it is the next party of government. Continue reading...

Officials to investigate claims of mortgage fraud against Cook, who has refused to accept firing by Donald TrumpThe US justice department has initiated a criminal investigation into mortgage fraud claims against the Federal Reserve governor Lisa Cook as a lawsuit she filed against Donald Trump over her firing makes its way through court.Lawyers with the justice department have issued subpoenas for the investigation, according to the Wall Street Journal, which first reported the investigation, which has since been confirmed by multiple news publications. Continue reading...

Prime minister cautions Canadians as Ottawa moves to curb spending to balance near-record military expendituresMark Carney has told Canadians to prepare for austerity measures and his finance minister warned of tough choices" in the coming months, as the government attempts to balance near-record defence spending, cuts to government programs and a trade war with the United States.Carney, the former central banker and economist turned politician, has been meeting senior ministers before the fall budget, and hinted cuts were coming to the federal bureaucracy. Continue reading...

Companies say increase in employer national insurance contributions has forced them to cut jobs and raise pricesUK businesses cut jobs at the fastest pace in four years over the summer, according to a Bank of England survey highlighting the impact from tax rises on employers.The monthly snapshot from a survey of chief financial officers at British businesses of all sizes showed firms reduced employment by an annual rate of 0.5% in the three months to August, the fastest since 2021. Continue reading...

My friend Hugh Corbet, who has died aged 88, was an expert in trade strategy and an advocate of free trade who advised various governments around the world, including those of Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan in the 1980s.As co-founder and head of the Trade Policy Research Centre (TPRC) thinktank in London from 1968 to 1989, he quickly became a sought-after adviser to politicians, and by 1979 was also working as a consultant on trade policy to the International Chamber of Commerce in Paris and as a special trade adviser to the Conservative party. Continue reading...

Economists warn credibility of Bureau of Labor Statistics at risk after Trump ousts commissioner over job numbersAs it has for more than a hundred years, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release its latest monthly jobs report on Friday.But the routine monthly update on the health of the US jobs market has been overshadowed by Donald Trump's firing of the agency's commissioner, Erika McEntarfer, hours after July's statistics were released last month. Continue reading...

President challenging federal appeals court decision that liberation day' levies on imports overstepped his powers

As the later-than-usual date is set, chancellor insists the economy isn't broken' but isn't working well enough'

Andrew Bailey's remarks to MPs about the rise in the 30-year bond yield will bring some relief to the chancellorThe governor of the Bank of England has cautioned against exaggerating" the impact of a steep rise in the UK's long-term borrowing costs, which he said was part of a global trend.Andrew Bailey told MPs the Treasury had continued to borrow at the same interest rate for most of the year despite a rise in the rate on 30-year bonds to a 27-year high. Continue reading...

UK 30-year yields rose above Tuesday's levels in early trading but have now dropped back

Yield on 30-year gilts hit highest level since 1998, indicating it will cost UK more to borrow from markets

Despite predictions of a 1970s-style budget crisis, analysts point out similar rises are taking place in other marketsThe last time yields on 30-year UK government bonds were this high, Rachel Reeves was a first-year student at Oxford, getting to grips with economics.The chancellor could be excused a moment of nostalgia for such innocent times after waking on Tuesday to a barrage of headlines about Keir Starmer taking back control of economic policy - and a fresh sell-off in the government bond, or gilt, markets. Continue reading...

UK 30-year bond yields rise to highest since 1998 amid worldwide bond market rout'

Chancellor will face more limited fiscal headroom at budget after yield on 30-year bond increases to 5.723%

The PM has brought in Darren Jones, whose superpower is relentless delivery'. If that won't save the world, what will?If I hear one more of our people saying that deckchairs are being shuffled on the Titanic," a government supporter of Keir Starmer confided to the Daily Mail, I will scream." No need for shrieks. The prime minister's No 10 hokey cokey on Monday wasn't so much shuffling the deckchairs as restructuring the deck crew and announcing that some fresh faces will enable the team to work with new focus towards their ultimate goal of reshuffling. Expect the first strategy whiteboard to be broken out 370 miles off the coast of Newfoundland.For now, hold on to your aperitifs and continue to dress for dinner, because the erstwhile chief secretary to the Treasury, Darren Jones, becomes something called chief secretary to the prime minister. To Starmer, Darren is a Mr Fixit; to many of his cabinet colleagues, he is a Mr Fuxit. That's not the official line Downing Steet is going with, preferring instead to claim that yet another reset means Starmer is focused on relentless delivery". Delivery of what? They've barely passed any legislation. Hand on heart, meanwhile, I'm not sure the word relentless" means what Starmer reckons it does. All he ever does is relent, on both staff and policy. The role of his comms chief, for example, is now essentially a gig economy job, while doing a monthly U-turn is the only thing he hasn't U-turned on. We are watching a movie in which it's not clear what the main character wants. Unsurprisingly, it has turned out to be box-office poison.Marina Hyde is a Guardian columnist Continue reading...

Ray Dalio says business leaders scared to criticise Donald Trump as he warns of debt-induced crisis for the economyOne of the world's most prominent hedge fund billionaires has warned that rising inequality is turning the US into an autocratic state and condemned business leaders for failing to speak out against Donald Trump's policies.Ray Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater Associates, said gaps in wealth" and a collapse in trust were driving more extreme" policies in the US. Continue reading...

The government is on the brink of collapse over planned austerity. Instead it must face up to the costs of its unnecessarily rigid labour marketAs someone who has always been against austerity, I find France, with a national debt at 114% of GDP and a budget deficit of 5.8% of GDP, a conundrum. Despite years of denunciation from his left and far-right opponents that Macron has engaged in ultraneoliberalism", there hasn't been any. Not on a macro level, anyway, where both French government spending (57.3% of GDP) and tax receipts (51.4% of GDP) are among the highest in the world, including social spending, which outpaces any of its European neighbours.At the same time, it's impossible to have spent the past decade in France without encountering the widely shared perception and accusation that public services are in decline. Doctors and nurses denounce a labour shortage in public hospitals; people who live in rural areas denounce the closing of rural train lines; students and academics denounce a lack of resources for public universities, many of which are dealing with outdated infrastructure, and for research.Alexander Hurst is a Guardian Europe columnist Continue reading...

Economists say new team could help push back against Treasury but PM needs to spell out what he stands for

Weak market conditions, US tariffs and downbeat client confidence blamed for drop in factory ordersOuch! The UK manufacturing sector shrank again last month, as factories were hit by weaker demand at home and abroad.The latest monthly poll of purchasing managers across Britain's manufacturing sector found that new orders and new export business both fell at quicker rates in August, leading to another drop in production volumes.Production volumes are still showing resilience in the face of global geopolitical uncertainty and US tariff policies, with both July and August having seen only slight contractions that were milder than those suffered earlier in the year. Business confidence has also lifted to a sixmonth high, reflecting hopes that the trading environment is starting to settle down.However, August also saw a steep drop in UK manufacturers' new orders, with total order books and overseas demand both falling at some of the fastest rates seen over the past two years. Weak market conditions, US tariffs and downbeat client confidence all contributed to the dearth of new contract wins. Job cuts were also reported for a tenth successive month, with factory headcounts dropping to one of the greatest extents postpandemic. Continue reading...

The government needs bold policies in the autumn budget that will change the narrative without startling the marketsAssume that Rip Van Winkle had gone to sleep on the eve of the US election on 4 November 2024 and had woken up on 1 September 2025 and was told that, in the US, developments included:a) Donald Trump had been talking of firing Jerome Powell, the chair of the Federal Reserve, and asserting that only those who believed that short-term interest rates needed to be a lot lower were qualified to be the next Fed chair. Moreover, he had attempted to take the unprecedented step of firing a board governor. Continue reading...

Christine Lagarde issues warning about risks of undermining central bank's independenceDonald Trump's attempt to influence the US Federal Reserve could pose a very serious danger" for the world economy, the head of the European Central Bank has warned.Christine Lagarde, the president of the ECB, said Trump undermining the independence of the world's most powerful central bank would have an impact for the US and other countries. Continue reading...

Glenn Stevens tells Reserve Bank historian: We've got a lot of media capacity and not enough real news to fill it'

Chancellor needs to reform an out-of-kilter tax system without alienating voters or spooking financial marketsIt's back to school this week for MPs and government ministers - and few can be facing a more challenging new term than Rachel Reeves. After being moved to tears in the unforgiving glare of the cameras before the summer break, the chancellor's allies say she is returning to the frontline with a renewed sense of purpose. She is ready, as the kids would say, to lock in".But team Reeves is also well aware of the scale of the economic and political obstacles ahead. Most pressing, yet out of the chancellor's hands, is the Office for Budget Responsibility's (OBR) summer supply stocktake" of its economic model. Continue reading...

Republicans once believed governments should get out of the way. Trump is making his influence felt in every corner of the American economyWhen Ronald Reagan became the first US president to address China's Great Hall of the People in 1984, he did not waste an opportunity to school his audience on the benefits of the American way.He boiled down his central economic ideology, and that of his Republican party - that governments should get out of the way, allow companies, industries and markets the space the thrive, without intervention - into a simple mantra: trust the people. Continue reading...

This blog is now closed. Read the full story hereA visit to Taiwan by two US senators has drawn criticism from China, which claims the island as its own and objects to any contact between officials of the two sides.The chair of the Senate armed services committee, Roger Wicker, and the Nebraska senator Deb Fischer arrived in Taipei on Friday for a series of high-level meetings with senior Taiwanese leaders to discuss US-Taiwan relations, regional security, trade and investment, according to the American Institute in Taiwan, Washington's de facto embassy in lieu of formal diplomatic relations with the self-governing island democracy.A thriving democracy is never fully assured ... and we're here to talk to our friends and allies in Taiwan about what we're doing to enhance worldwide peace. Continue reading...

Low-cost carrier experiences dwindling cash and mounting losses as recovery further hit by Trump tariffsUS no-frills pioneer Spirit Airlines filed for fresh chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on Friday, as dwindling cash and mounting losses derailed its turnaround efforts since emerging from a previous Chapter 11 reorganization in March.The carrier, recognizable by its bright yellow jets, has struggled to steady operations since emerging from its first bankruptcy in March. Flights, ticket sales, reservations and operations will continue, the airline said on Friday. Continue reading...

The US president's move against Lisa Cook shows his despotic bent, but the Fed was never democracy's guardian. It's time to rethink who really controls moneyDonald Trump's attempt to sack the Federal Reserve governor, Lisa Cook, is the familiar authoritarian trick of bending institutions to serve the leader's immediate ends. The widespread condemnation is deserved. This is not some daring experiment in popular control of monetary policy. Yet what should follow censure is reflection. For the furore over MsCook has revealed a peculiar reflex: to defend the Fed's independence as though it were synonymous with democracy itself.But is independence of the Fed, or central banks generally, really that? Eric Levitz at Vox thinks so, or at least that it is close enough. He argues that Congress setsthe Fed's objectives; independence applies only to the means. Without independence, politicians would be free to game rates for votes - as Richard Nixon did in 1972,leaning on the Fed to juice growth before the election. On this view, independence is not anti-democratic but prudent delegation. Continue reading...

Calls for Thatcher-style tax on bank profits' to raise billions of pounds rattle bank shares

Minouche Shafik quit Columbia University after controversy over anti-Israel protests on New York campus

Despite sluggish growth and rising borrowing costs, most economists agree that Rachel Reeves doesn't face a repeat of 1976International confidence in the UK government's economic policies had evaporated. Growth was stalling, inflation was galloping, and Labour - back in power after a reckless Conservative administration had gambled on tax cuts - was in deep trouble.It was 1976, when James Callaghan's government was forced to go cap in hand to the International Monetary Fund for an emergency loan. Fast forward almost half a century and some economists are drawing obvious parallels. Continue reading...

Despite concerns about economy, poll shows optimism about trading prospects at highest level since 2014

Customs agency starts collecting full duties on Friday as Donald Trump ends de minimis exemption for packages worth under $800The US tariff exemption for package shipments valued under $800 officially ended on Friday, raising costs and disrupting supply chain models for a range of businesses, with Trump administration officials saying the change would be permanent.There is now a six-month transition period under which postal service shippers can opt to pay a flat duty of $80-$200 per package depending on the country of origin, the officials added. Continue reading...

IPPR says Rachel Reeves should also urge Bank to halt bond sales to reduce government losses of 22bn a yearRachel Reeves should levy a new bank tax and urge the Bank of England to halt bond sales to reduce the government's 22bn-a-year losses from quantitative easing, the IPPR thinktank has argued.In a report called Fixing the Leak, the IPPR's associate director for economic policy, Carsten Jung, says the Treasury should rein in the costs of QE as public finances are tight. Continue reading...

US president spent months waging campaign against Fed's leaders, which has raised questions over its independenceThe Federal Reserve governor Lisa Cook has filed a lawsuit against Donald Trump over his unprecedented and illegal attempt" to fire her, calling it an attempt to undermine the central bank's independence.The lawsuit - filed by Cook in federal court in Washington on Thursday - sets the stage for a legal battle over the US president's extraordinary push for greater control of the central bank. Continue reading...

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news, as former PM criticises Bank of England and claims UK faces economic doom loop'

Britain's shortest-serving prime minister also critical of Bank of England and European Central BankDonald Trump's assault on the independence of the US Federal Reserve has been backed by Liz Truss, the shortest-serving British prime minister in history, who was ousted after a meltdown in the financial markets.The former Conservative leader, who during her 49 days in power in late 2022 railed against the deep state" and the Bank of England for undermining her before she was ejected from office by her own party, said a reckoning" was coming for the world's most powerful central banks. Continue reading...

Proposals for autumn budget would mean expanding national insurance to include rental income

Chancellor is urged to get a grip' on country's finances as yield on 30-year bond rises to 5.62%The cost of UK government borrowing has jumped to near a 27-year high, piling pressure on Rachel Reeves to reveal how she will tackle the deficit in the public finances before the autumn budget.The yield, or interest rate, on the UK's 30-year bond rose by eight basis points (0.08 of a percentage point) on Tuesday to 5.62%. Continue reading...

Cook's attorney said the president has no authority' and lacks any factual or legal basis' to fire the Fed governorThe Federal Reserve governor Lisa Cook will sue the Trump administration over its bid to fire her over unconfirmed allegations of mortgage fraud, her attorney has said.Donald Trump announced he was firing Cook on Monday night, in an extraordinary move that marks the latest escalation in the US president's attack on the central bank's independence. Continue reading...

Parent groups of Primark and B&Q hit as analysts say jobs and inflation concerns could affect sales

The US president has said he is firing Lisa Cook over mortgage fraud allegations - a move experts view as a means to exert more control

Report finds regenerative approach could yield economic benefits while helping to meet environmental targetsThe degradation of nature in the UK will lop nearly 5% off the country's GDP if the private sector does not make a greater effort to halt the decline, experts have warned.Conversely, investing in nature can produce economic returns for companies in a range of sectors, from manufacturing and construction to food, according to a report from the Green Finance Institute (GFI) and WWF. Continue reading...

Food inflation at 4.2% this month, with prices increasing at fastest pace for 18 months, says British Retail ConsortiumA significant" jump in the cost of grocery staples such as eggs and butter is stoking food inflation, according to data pointing to a renewed cost of living squeeze.The British Retail Consortium (BRC) said prices had risen at their fastest pace for 18 months, with food inflation hitting 4.2% this month. This was up from 4% in July and the highest reading since February 2024, according to its monthly shop price monitor. Continue reading...

Once the country's biggest real estate firm, Evergrande was worth more than $50bn at its peak and helped propel China's rapid economic growthEvergrande, formerly one of China's biggest property developers, has been delisted from the Hong Kong stock exchange, capping the end of a long fall from grace.The company was removed from the exchange on Monday after an 18-month freeze on trading, imposed when the developer - once valued at more than HK$400bn (US$50bn) - was put into liquidation. Continue reading...

The singer CMAT dances around a retail centre in a video for her new album. It is the elegy those of us who grew up in the post-Celtic tiger recession have been cravingYou wouldn't know it to look at the tourist board ads, but the emblem of modern Ireland is probably a shopping centre. And now that emblem has found its bard, in the form of Ciara Mary-Alice Thompson, the Irish pop star and songwriter better known as CMAT. She is a woman wielding a creative energy that is completely her own, but which is also profoundly shaped by her experiences coming of age in a post-Celtic tiger, recession-era Ireland. This has never been clearer than on her new single, Euro-Country, from the forthcoming album of the same name - a project that reminds us that pop culture has the power to illuminate political and social realities that are otherwise being ignored. It is the elegy that we, Ireland's post-recession generation, needed - and it references at least two shopping centres.The Euro-Country album artwork is a send-up of Jean-Leon Gerome's painting Truth Coming Out of Her Well, with CMAT emerging from the fountain in Blanchardstown shopping centre, beside a giant euro coin. In an interview with the Guardian before her spectacular Glastonbury performance in June, Thompson observed that while Ireland is a little more fetishised and trendy than it's ever been", it's also a really hard place to live, a really hard place to grow up, unless you have money, which we didn't. So yeah, magical, beautiful, mystical Ireland: it's a shopping centre - that's what I grew up with." Continue reading...

Bank of England governor tells Jackson Hole summit that ageing population is adding to the squeezeBritain faces an acute challenge" from its weak underlying economic growth and a drop in the number of workers since the pandemic, according to the Bank of England governor, Andrew Bailey.A rise in the number of people defined as long-term sick and a big drop in young people in work - factors that he suggested might be intertwined - added to the squeeze created by an ageing population. Continue reading...

The chancellor seems to be waiting for a clearer economic picture to emerge but that is not how government worksThe cruel summer of speculation is here. Barely a day passes without the chancellor, Rachel Reeves, waking to another newspaper headline about possible tax-raising options for her autumn budget.After the bonanza of June's spending review, Reeves had been warned that uncertainty about the public finances would set tongues wagging. Britain's economy has far from shot the lights out since, the global backdrop remains fairly bleak, borrowing costs are high, and inflationary pressures are building. Continue reading...

National Retail Federation estimates families are budgeting an average of nearly $875 for the year for shoppingSummer is drawing to a close and as parents and children get ready for a new school year, their first lesson will be in economics.Most of Donald Trump's tariffs went into effect at the beginning of August. We are still waiting on a deal with China. But with school supplies so dependent on imports, consumers have been anxiously waiting to see how tariffs will affect the prices they see in stores. Continue reading...

President has pressured Jay Powell to slash rates but central bank is trying to find right balance amid tariff tailspinStocks soared on Friday following the strongest signal yet that US the Federal Reserve is gearing up to start cutting interest rates again this fall. But how long can this celebration last?While Wall Street cheered the biggest headline from the speech by the Fed chair, Jerome Powell, at the annual Jackson Hole symposium in Wyoming, Powell also delivered a reality check on where interest rates could settle in the longer term. Continue reading...

Chair of the Federal Reserve says US economy is facing challenging situation' as inflation risks persist and job market coolsUnions are raising concerns about the threat of TikTok layoffs, warning it would put millions of British TikTok users at risk.John Chadfield of the Communication Workers Union (CWU) said:TikTok workers have long been sounding the alarm over the real-world costs of cutting human moderation teams in favour of hastily developed, immature AI alternatives.This has been a constant concern throughout the process of TikTok workers' effort to form a union. Continue reading...