Donald Trump will lead the largest US delegation ever at the World Economic Forum, as others plan a fightback against his policies including his latest tariff threatsA Spirit of Dialogue": the theme for this year's World Economic Forum, the gathering of the global elite in the sparkling Alpine air of Davos, seems a heroic stretch, when star guest Donald Trump has spent the past year smashing up the world order.The president will touch down alongside the snowcapped Swiss mountains with the largest US delegation ever seen at the WEF, including the secretary of state, Marco Rubio, the treasury secretary, Scott Bessent, the commerce secretary, Howard Lutnick, and the special envoy Steve Witkoff. Continue reading...
Parts suppliers put production on hold' amid mounting confusion as China restricts purchase of the chips and US puts 25% roundabout tariff on their saleSuppliers of parts for Nvidia's H200 have paused production after Chinese customs officials blocked shipments of the newly approved artificial intelligence processors from entering China, according to a report.Reuters could not immediately verify the report, which appeared in the Financial Times citing two people with knowledge of the matter. Nvidia did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment made outside regular business hours. Continue reading...
Kevin Hassett, a top contender to replace Jerome Powell, suggests he believes Powell told truth about Fed renovationDonald Trump's top economic adviser, Kevin Hassett, said he expected there was nothing to see here" as the US Department of Justice pursues its criminal investigation of Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve chair.The Trump administration has faced a chorus of criticism in recent days after it emerged that the justice department had served the Fed with grand jury subpoenas, in a significant escalation of its extraordinary attack on the US central bank's independence. Continue reading...
by Richard Partington Senior economics correspondent on (#72WFJ)
Experts say central banks are increasingly stuffing their vaults as an insurance policy in a volatile worldFifteen minutes after takeoff, the call came for Serbia's central bank governor: millions of dollars' worth of gold bars, destined for a high-security Belgrade vault, had been left on the runway of a Swiss airport.In air freight - despite the extraordinary value of bullion - fresh flowers, food and other perishables still take priority. We learned this the hard way," Jorgovanka Tabakovi told a conference late last year. Continue reading...
Institute for Public Policy Research thinktank report calls on chancellor to pursue policy of securonomics'Tens of thousands of jobs could be lost if the UK's clean energy supply chains were to suffer a shock as a result of an over-reliance on China, a left-leaning thinktank has warned.A year-long disruption to the supply of essential battery components used to manufacture electric vehicles could wipe out production of more than 580,000 electric cars and endanger 90,000 jobs, according to the Institute for Public Policy Research. Continue reading...
US to lower tariffs on Taiwanese goods to 15% as chip and tech businesses pledge $250bn spending in US operationsThe US said on Thursday that it had signed a deal with Taiwan to reduce tariffs on goods from the democratic island, while increasing Taiwanese semiconductor and tech companies' investments in America.The agreement, the US commerce department said, will drive a massive reshoring of America's semiconductor sector". Continue reading...
UK economy returns to growth despite pre-Budget jitters, after car production resumed at JLR after cyber attackToday's GDP report shows a pick-up at consumer-facing services businesses in the September-November quarter.That was driven by the travel agency and tour operator sector, by retail, and by sports activities and amusement and recreation activities.The UK economy returned to growth in November despite pre-Budget jitters leading to some inertia among businesses and consumers. Growth was driven by manufacturing during the month with the restart of operations at the Jaguar Land Rover factory feeding through.Beyond manufacturing, the economy was also boosted by a bounce back in consumer spending around the Black Friday sales. With Black Friday seemingly starting earlier and earlier each year, and more retailers participating, the high street rose to the occasion and was able to capture consumer demand in their busiest period of the year. On the flip side, the property market has been subdued since the summer with new home instructions at their lowest level since 2022 and agreed sales also falling. This inaction wasn't limited to the property market with businesses and consumers putting off decisions until they had clarity on what tax and spend changes would be made in the Budget at the end of November.Today's data is welcome news for the UK economy, with GDP growing modestly in November despite the uncertainty in the run-up to the Budget.Given today's figure, we now project that the economy grew 1.4 per cent in 2025 - a rise in the growth rate compared to the year before. Continue reading...
It may well be safer, easier and cheaper for US companies to procure whatever oil the US economy needs at homeThere are a few reasons that Donald Trump - now self-anointed acting president of Venezuela, as well as the United States - might be so excited about appropriating Venezuela's oil.Trump may be counting on some boost from cheap oil to the US economy: he is obsessed with the price of gas. As the midterm elections approach, he has become concerned about unemployment. Deeply imprinted memories of scarcity during the oil crises of the 1970s may prime his belief that cheap oil cures it all. Continue reading...
While better-than-expected data for November offers hope for UK economy, clouds remain on the horizon UK economy grew by better-than-expected despite budget uncertainty
Jaguar Land Rover's recovery from cyber-attack appears to have contributed to GDP growth Growth figures give boost to Reeves - but it's too early to get carried away
Whether it's the financial crash, the climate emergency or the breakdown of the international order, historian Adam Tooze has become the go-to guide to the radical new world we've enteredIn late January 2025, 10 days after Donald Trump was sworn in for a second time as president of the United States, an economic conference in Brussels brought together several officials from the recently deposed Biden administration for a discussion about the global economy. In Washington, Trump and his wrecking crew were already busy razing every last brick of Joe Biden's legacy, but in Brussels, the Democratic exiles put on a brave face. They summoned the comforting ghosts of white papers past, intoning old spells like worker-centered trade policy" and middle-out bottom-up economics". They touted their late-term achievements. They even quoted poetry: We did not go gently into that good night," Katherine Tai, who served as Biden's US trade representative, said from the stage. Tai proudly told the audience that before leaving office she and her team had worked hard to complete a set of supply-chain-resiliency papers, a set of model negotiating texts, and a shipbuilding investigation".It was not until 70 minutes into the conversation that a discordant note was sounded, when Adam Tooze joined the panel remotely. Born in London, raised in West Germany, and living now in New York, where he teaches at Columbia, Tooze was for many years a successful but largely unknown academic. A decade ago he was recognised, when he was recognised at all, as an economic historian of Europe. Since 2018, however, when he published Crashed, his contemporary history" of the 2008 financial crisis and its aftermath, Tooze has become, in the words of Jonathan Derbyshire, his editor at the Financial Times, a sort of platonic ideal of the universal intellectual". Continue reading...
Greater scope for interest rate cuts and reduced fears about government finances prompt bond yields to fallUK borrowing costs have dropped to their lowest level in more than a year, as investors were encouraged by more stable government finances and the prospect of further interest rate cuts.The yield, or interest rate, on 10-year UK government bonds fell to 4.34%, down from 4.41%, to the lowest level since December 2024, with the prospect of the UK public finances being put on a firmer footing lowering the risk of holding UK debt. Continue reading...
Debt-riddled retail giant's demise has cast uncertainty over the future of US luxury fashionBeleaguered high-end department store conglomerate Saks Global filed for bankruptcy protection on Tuesday, a month after missing the deadline on a $100m interest payment, in one of the largest retail collapses since the pandemic.Barely a year after a deal brought the chains Saks Fifth Avenue, Bergdorf Goodman and Neiman Marcus together, Saks Global said it had filed for chapter 11 bankruptcy to facilitate its ongoing transformation". Continue reading...
Extreme weather events and biodiversity loss identified as the biggest global threats over a 10-year timeframeEconomic conflicts between major powers are the greatest risk facing the world over the next two years, according to experts polled ahead of next week's Davos summit.Among 1,300 business leaders, academics and civil society figures surveyed by the World Economic Forum (WEF), geoeconomic confrontation" was identified as the most pressing threat. Continue reading...
Ban on private equity firms buying single-family homes in US raises concerns institutions could deepen housing crisis on BritainLeading US investors and private equity firms could step up their foray into UK new-build housing after Donald Trump's move to ban institutional companies from buying single-family homes in the US, raising concerns that investors could cut corners and increase rents".The US president said last week that he would ask Congress to codify the measure as he tries to address concerns that families are struggling to buy or rent a home. The median property sale price was $410,800 (305,000) last year, according to the US Census Bureau. Continue reading...
In speech, president delivers triumph assessment, claiming US prices are down despite official data showing otherwiseDonald Trump claimed victory on the economy after 12 months back in office on Tuesday, declaring it to be the greatest first year in history" as many Americans express alarm over the cost of living.In a stream-of-consciousness speech at the Detroit Economic Club, the US president delivered his gold-tinted view of how the economy has fared on his watch. Prices were down, he claimed, despite official data showing otherwise, and productivity was smashing expectations". Continue reading...
Highly respected figure has cast off restrained approach in defending central bank from escalating attacksThere are often few surprises with Jerome Powell. At his handful of public appearances each month, the US Federal Reserve chair always sports the same softly stern expression. His voice, typically dispassionate and near-monotone, never wavers.As one of the most powerful officials in the world, commanding a platform that has the ability to move global markets with a few words, Powell is often reserved in a way that fails to yield soundbites in this social media era: boring, even. Continue reading...
Sales of clothes and computers fall, but discount supermarkets Aldi and Lidl enjoy bumper tradingRetailers suffered a drab Christmas", ending the year with disappointing sales in their most important month, according to new data underlining the difficulties facing Britain's high streets.Overall retail sales grew by just 1.2% in December compared with a year earlier, the British Retail Consortium (BRC) said. That was below the 12-month average of 2.3%. Continue reading...
Powell publicly denounced the inquiry as punishment for not bowing to the president's wishes on interest ratesThe US Department of Justice has opened a criminal investigation into the Federal Reserve chair, Jerome Powell, as Donald Trump's White House escalates its campaign against the central bank's independence.In a video posted on Sunday, a typically reticent Powell took the extraordinary step of denouncing the investigation as punishment for not setting interest rates in accordance with the US president's wishes. Continue reading...
Picture is as murky as a barrel of oil, with US companies in 2026 expecting their first production drop in four yearsUS shale-oil producers were already contending with oil prices at four-year lows. News that they may soon face a significant competitor in their back yard probably wasn't how frackers wanted to greet 2026.The US capture of Venezuela's President Nicolaa Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, hit the share prices of independent shale-oil producers, such as Diamondback Energy and Devon Energy, last week. Continue reading...
Rising costs and economic uncertainty take toll, in contrast to Keir Starmer saying Britain will start to feel richerUK business confidence weakened sharply at the end of 2025 and hiring fell amid rising costs and uncertainty about the economic outlook, according to key business surveys.Contrasting with the prime minister's optimistic new year message that the country was about to start feeling richer again, the jobs market weakened, with full-time and temporary appointments falling in December, according to a study by the accountants KPMG and the Recruitment and Employment Confederation (REC). Continue reading...
Yes, the number of small businesses that filed for bankruptcy in 2025 increased from 2024. But only by 10Are mom-and-pop stores going bankrupt at historically high levels? That would seem to be the impression you'd get from recent news reports referencing data released from Epiq Bankruptcy Analytics, a provider of legal services that specializes in bankruptcy services.Uh-oh! Some have seen this as proof that Donald Trump's policies are bankrupting Main Street. Well, no, not quite. Continue reading...
Oil is US president's motivation but his concept of economic success feels as outdated as his music tastesThe word loot" entered the English language from Hindi in the late 18th century, as the rapacious East India Company plundered its way across the subcontinent.It was a trading company, not a state - but it had the imprimatur of the English crown and its own large private army, mingling commerce and military force and opening the way for British imperial dominance of India. Continue reading...
Hopes that tougher sanctions and lower oil prices could derail Putin's war effort underestimate how far the Kremlin has rewired its economyPacing inside the Kremlin last weekend, as news feeds churned out minute-by-minute reports of Donald's Trump's Venezuelan coup, Vladimir Putin may have been wondering what it would mean for the price of oil.Crude oil has lubricated the Russian economy for decades - far more than gas exports to Europe - and so the threat of falling oil prices, prompted by US plans for control of Venezuela's rigs, will have been a source of concern. Continue reading...
Swedish producer is trying to to accelerate the process of extracting the elements vital for hi-tech productsIt is deep winter with temperatures dropping to -20C. The sun never rises above the horizon, instead bathing Sweden's most northerly town of Kiruna in a blue crepuscular light, or civil twilight" as it is known, for two or three hours a day stretching visibility a few metres, notwithstanding heavy snow.But 900 metres below the arctic conditions, a team of 20 gather every day, forgoing the brief glimpse of natural light and spearheading the EU's race to mine its own rare earths. Despite identification of several deposits around the continent, and some rare earth refineries including Solvay in France, there are no operational rare earth mines in Europe. Continue reading...
Blocking immigration will not make Trump's America great again - for the US to shine, he must let it get brownerHere's one reason Donald Trump seems perennially in a bad mood: he has probably figured out that the America he fantasizes about is out of his reach.However many immigrants he manages to deport or prevent from entering the country, the white paradise he is promising his Maga base, free of Somalis, Mexican rapists" and generally people from shithole countries" - closer in hue to the America where he was born - is not his to offer. Continue reading...
White House is meanwhile facing questions about an apparent embargo breach over Trump's social media postHiring held firm in the US last month, official data showed, amid uncertainty over the strength and direction of the world's largest economy.Employers added 50,000 jobs to the US labor force last month, capping the weakest year of growth since the pandemic, according to data released from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday. Continue reading...
My friend and former colleague Laszlo Czaban, who has died suddenly aged 62, was a senior lecturer at the University of Manchester's Alliance Manchester Business School (AMBS). An intellectual of the first rank and a dedicated scholar and teacher, he arrived from Hungary in 1993 to take a post at Manchester.I and a colleague, Richard Whitley, recruited him to work with us - at the then Manchester Business School - on a research project on economic transformation in post-socialist Hungary. Working with him was an extraordinary intellectual and social experience. Among other things, it rapidly became clear that he was no mere" economist: rather, his knowledge ranged across the social sciences and embraced philosophy and the humanities more generally. Continue reading...
At home, the machinery of government creaks badly - abroad, a leaden UK lags far behind dynamic competitors. A radical overhaul is neededGovernments come into office brimming with confidence. They say their election win is a mandate for change, and that work on its manifesto pledges will start immediately. Invariably, there is talk of sleeves being rolled up.Sooner or later, there is a rude awakening. Ministers push buttons and pull levers expecting things to happen instantly, and are shocked to find that they don't. The reason for that is simple: the British state is big - and getting bigger - but as an agent of change it is not up to the job.Larry Elliott is a Guardian columnist Continue reading...
The seizure of Venezuelan leader was induced by the prize of petroleum, but driven by spectacle, geopolitics and domestic politicsIt's all about oil. That was the reason Nicolas Maduro, the Venezuelan leader illegally abducted by US forces at the weekend, had given for Donald Trump's fixation with his country. A better way to think about Venezuelais that oil was necessary but not sufficient. The presence of vast reserves made Mr Trump's interest understandable - if Venezuela's main export was bananas this would not have happened. But oil alone cannot explainthe timing or scale of the move.Venezuelan crude is extra-heavy as well as expensive and slow to bring online; it will not immediately transform US energy systems, nor rescue refineries that have already adapted to years without it. Instead, oil is the prize" around which other agendas cohere. These include future profits for US firms; modest downward pressure on oil prices; depriving China of a meaningful ally in America's backyard; putting pressure on Cuba; and US domestic political signalling in Florida. Each gain is small. But collectively Mr Trump could justify a highprofile, theatrical - and unlawful - intervention even if the economic returns are incremental.Do you have an opinion on the issues raised in this article? If you would like to submit a response of up to 300 words by email to be considered for publication in our letters section, please click here. Continue reading...
After Robert Reich wrote about the US going off the rails', Tony Rowlands and Kate Purcell respond from a British angleRobert Reich's account of how the holy writ of corporate profit has bought about the near disintegration of US society will be familiar to students of UK political history (Americans are waking up. A grand reckoning awaits us, 29 January).I grew up with the capitalism of Harold Macmillan and Edward Heath, in a society where the NHS worked, our industry and transport remained a vibrant reflection of British pride and ingenuity, the population were housed, and rents and mortgages were within the reach of ordinary wage earners. Continue reading...
by Presented by Helen Pidd with Emma Warren; produced on (#72KXZ)
What is the UK government planning for young people? With Emma WarrenI was sat on the tube on the Northern line going south and I noticed a group get on - a man and three young people. There was something happening that I couldn't quite recognise. They're not from school. They don't look like a family group."Emma Warren, a journalist and author of Up the Youth Club: Illuminating a Hidden History, explains to Helen Pidd how she realised that the man she was observing was a youth worker. Bringing people in, dropping them out. I was watching someone extremely skilful. He was turning the end of the tube carriage into a youth club, and he was conducting a conversation." Continue reading...
Forecast of Europe's civilisational erasure' was part of call for pro-growth reform, says Trump officialDonald Trump's administration has doubled down on its recent criticism of Europe, saying last month's US national security strategy was an attempt to jolt" an ally back to economic life.The document was widely condemned in Europe as representing a seismic shift in the 70-year transatlantic alliance with its dark references to a purported threat of civilisational erasure" with migration and censorship creating strife", cratering birthrates" and loss of national identities". Continue reading...
Revenues may be rising rapidly, but not by nearly enough to cover the wild levels of investment under wayThe US dictionary Merriam-Webster's word of the year for 2025 was slop", which it defines as digital content of low quality that is produced, usually in quantity, by means of artificial intelligence". The choice underlined the fact that while AI is being widely embraced, not least by corporate bosses keen to cut payroll costs, its downsides are also becoming obvious. In 2026, a reckoning with reality for AI represents a growing economic risk.Ed Zitron, the foul-mouthed figurehead of AI scepticism, argues pretty convincingly that, as things stand, the unit economics" of the entire industry - the cost of servicing the requests of a single customer against the price companies are able to charge them - just don't add up. In typically colourful language, he calls them dogshit". Continue reading...
Analysts and investors voice caution about tech valuations and Trump's influence on the US central bankInvestors expect global stock markets to keep rising in 2026, despite fears that the AI bubble could burst, and anxiety about chaos engulfing the US central bank.Wall Street strategists broadly expect the S&P 500 share index of US-listed companies to continue to rise over the next 12 months, but said it could be a volatile year if geopolitical tensions increase and inflation fails to fall. Continue reading...
Sven Beckert review | Degrees of uncertainty | Calendar switch | Amended sign | Faux CyrillicDorian Lynskey's review of Sven Beckert's book Capitalism: A Global History (23 December) expresses caution as well as appreciation. However, Beckert's approach is a much-needed antidote to Eurocentric and culturalist understandings of the emergence of industrialisation. It is still common in the UK to find museums and books that attribute the 19th-century global dominance of Lancashire textiles solely to new machinery and market competition, ignoring the role of British military and naval power in destroying the hitherto dominant Bengali textile industry.
As the Trump administration derides climate policy as a scam', emissions-cutting measures are gaining popularityA group of progressive politicians and advocates are reframing emissions-cutting measures as a form of economic populism as the Trump administration derides climate policy as a scam" and fails to deliver on promises to tame energy costs and inflation.Climate politics were once cast as a test of moral resolve, calling on Americans to accept higher costs to avert environmental catastrophe, but that ignores how rising temperatures themselves drive up costs for working people, said Stevie O'Hanlon, co-founder of the youth-led Sunrise Movement. Continue reading...
Economics | The Guardian