Hopes that tougher sanctions and lower oil prices could derail Putin's war effort underestimate how far the Kremlin has rewired its economyPacing inside the Kremlin last weekend, as news feeds churned out minute-by-minute reports of Donald's Trump's Venezuelan coup, Vladimir Putin may have been wondering what it would mean for the price of oil.Crude oil has lubricated the Russian economy for decades - far more than gas exports to Europe - and so the threat of falling oil prices, prompted by US plans for control of Venezuela's rigs, will have been a source of concern. Continue reading...
Swedish producer is trying to to accelerate the process of extracting the elements vital for hi-tech productsIt is deep winter with temperatures dropping to -20C. The sun never rises above the horizon, instead bathing Sweden's most northerly town of Kiruna in a blue crepuscular light, or civil twilight" as it is known, for two or three hours a day stretching visibility a few metres, notwithstanding heavy snow.But 900 metres below the arctic conditions, a team of 20 gather every day, forgoing the brief glimpse of natural light and spearheading the EU's race to mine its own rare earths. Despite identification of several deposits around the continent, and some rare earth refineries including Solvay in France, there are no operational rare earth mines in Europe. Continue reading...
Blocking immigration will not make Trump's America great again - for the US to shine, he must let it get brownerHere's one reason Donald Trump seems perennially in a bad mood: he has probably figured out that the America he fantasizes about is out of his reach.However many immigrants he manages to deport or prevent from entering the country, the white paradise he is promising his Maga base, free of Somalis, Mexican rapists" and generally people from shithole countries" - closer in hue to the America where he was born - is not his to offer. Continue reading...
White House is meanwhile facing questions about an apparent embargo breach over Trump's social media postHiring held firm in the US last month, official data showed, amid uncertainty over the strength and direction of the world's largest economy.Employers added 50,000 jobs to the US labor force last month, capping the weakest year of growth since the pandemic, according to data released from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday. Continue reading...
My friend and former colleague Laszlo Czaban, who has died suddenly aged 62, was a senior lecturer at the University of Manchester's Alliance Manchester Business School (AMBS). An intellectual of the first rank and a dedicated scholar and teacher, he arrived from Hungary in 1993 to take a post at Manchester.I and a colleague, Richard Whitley, recruited him to work with us - at the then Manchester Business School - on a research project on economic transformation in post-socialist Hungary. Working with him was an extraordinary intellectual and social experience. Among other things, it rapidly became clear that he was no mere" economist: rather, his knowledge ranged across the social sciences and embraced philosophy and the humanities more generally. Continue reading...
At home, the machinery of government creaks badly - abroad, a leaden UK lags far behind dynamic competitors. A radical overhaul is neededGovernments come into office brimming with confidence. They say their election win is a mandate for change, and that work on its manifesto pledges will start immediately. Invariably, there is talk of sleeves being rolled up.Sooner or later, there is a rude awakening. Ministers push buttons and pull levers expecting things to happen instantly, and are shocked to find that they don't. The reason for that is simple: the British state is big - and getting bigger - but as an agent of change it is not up to the job.Larry Elliott is a Guardian columnist Continue reading...
The seizure of Venezuelan leader was induced by the prize of petroleum, but driven by spectacle, geopolitics and domestic politicsIt's all about oil. That was the reason Nicolas Maduro, the Venezuelan leader illegally abducted by US forces at the weekend, had given for Donald Trump's fixation with his country. A better way to think about Venezuelais that oil was necessary but not sufficient. The presence of vast reserves made Mr Trump's interest understandable - if Venezuela's main export was bananas this would not have happened. But oil alone cannot explainthe timing or scale of the move.Venezuelan crude is extra-heavy as well as expensive and slow to bring online; it will not immediately transform US energy systems, nor rescue refineries that have already adapted to years without it. Instead, oil is the prize" around which other agendas cohere. These include future profits for US firms; modest downward pressure on oil prices; depriving China of a meaningful ally in America's backyard; putting pressure on Cuba; and US domestic political signalling in Florida. Each gain is small. But collectively Mr Trump could justify a highprofile, theatrical - and unlawful - intervention even if the economic returns are incremental.Do you have an opinion on the issues raised in this article? If you would like to submit a response of up to 300 words by email to be considered for publication in our letters section, please click here. Continue reading...
After Robert Reich wrote about the US going off the rails', Tony Rowlands and Kate Purcell respond from a British angleRobert Reich's account of how the holy writ of corporate profit has bought about the near disintegration of US society will be familiar to students of UK political history (Americans are waking up. A grand reckoning awaits us, 29 January).I grew up with the capitalism of Harold Macmillan and Edward Heath, in a society where the NHS worked, our industry and transport remained a vibrant reflection of British pride and ingenuity, the population were housed, and rents and mortgages were within the reach of ordinary wage earners. Continue reading...
by Presented by Helen Pidd with Emma Warren; produced on (#72KXZ)
What is the UK government planning for young people? With Emma WarrenI was sat on the tube on the Northern line going south and I noticed a group get on - a man and three young people. There was something happening that I couldn't quite recognise. They're not from school. They don't look like a family group."Emma Warren, a journalist and author of Up the Youth Club: Illuminating a Hidden History, explains to Helen Pidd how she realised that the man she was observing was a youth worker. Bringing people in, dropping them out. I was watching someone extremely skilful. He was turning the end of the tube carriage into a youth club, and he was conducting a conversation." Continue reading...
Forecast of Europe's civilisational erasure' was part of call for pro-growth reform, says Trump officialDonald Trump's administration has doubled down on its recent criticism of Europe, saying last month's US national security strategy was an attempt to jolt" an ally back to economic life.The document was widely condemned in Europe as representing a seismic shift in the 70-year transatlantic alliance with its dark references to a purported threat of civilisational erasure" with migration and censorship creating strife", cratering birthrates" and loss of national identities". Continue reading...
Revenues may be rising rapidly, but not by nearly enough to cover the wild levels of investment under wayThe US dictionary Merriam-Webster's word of the year for 2025 was slop", which it defines as digital content of low quality that is produced, usually in quantity, by means of artificial intelligence". The choice underlined the fact that while AI is being widely embraced, not least by corporate bosses keen to cut payroll costs, its downsides are also becoming obvious. In 2026, a reckoning with reality for AI represents a growing economic risk.Ed Zitron, the foul-mouthed figurehead of AI scepticism, argues pretty convincingly that, as things stand, the unit economics" of the entire industry - the cost of servicing the requests of a single customer against the price companies are able to charge them - just don't add up. In typically colourful language, he calls them dogshit". Continue reading...
Analysts and investors voice caution about tech valuations and Trump's influence on the US central bankInvestors expect global stock markets to keep rising in 2026, despite fears that the AI bubble could burst, and anxiety about chaos engulfing the US central bank.Wall Street strategists broadly expect the S&P 500 share index of US-listed companies to continue to rise over the next 12 months, but said it could be a volatile year if geopolitical tensions increase and inflation fails to fall. Continue reading...
Sven Beckert review | Degrees of uncertainty | Calendar switch | Amended sign | Faux CyrillicDorian Lynskey's review of Sven Beckert's book Capitalism: A Global History (23 December) expresses caution as well as appreciation. However, Beckert's approach is a much-needed antidote to Eurocentric and culturalist understandings of the emergence of industrialisation. It is still common in the UK to find museums and books that attribute the 19th-century global dominance of Lancashire textiles solely to new machinery and market competition, ignoring the role of British military and naval power in destroying the hitherto dominant Bengali textile industry.
As the Trump administration derides climate policy as a scam', emissions-cutting measures are gaining popularityA group of progressive politicians and advocates are reframing emissions-cutting measures as a form of economic populism as the Trump administration derides climate policy as a scam" and fails to deliver on promises to tame energy costs and inflation.Climate politics were once cast as a test of moral resolve, calling on Americans to accept higher costs to avert environmental catastrophe, but that ignores how rising temperatures themselves drive up costs for working people, said Stevie O'Hanlon, co-founder of the youth-led Sunrise Movement. Continue reading...
The continent's problems are not caused by immigration or cultural politics but by economic and technological declineDonald Trump's new national security strategy offers a misguided assessment of Europe, long regarded as the US's most reliable ally. Unrestrained immigration and other policies derided by administration officials as woke", it warns, could lead to civilisational erasure" within a few decades.That argument rests on a fundamental misreading of Europe's current predicament. While the EU does face an existential threat, it has little to do with immigration or cultural politics. In fact, the share of foreign-born residents in the US is slightly higher than in Europe. Continue reading...
Carmakers such as MG, BYD and Chery are set to pass 200,000 mark in sales, analysis suggests, double 2024's totalChinese brands are on course to account for one in every 10 new cars sold in Britain during 2025, a marked increase on last year as sales increase across Europe.Manufacturers led by MG, BYD, and Chery are on track to break the 200,000 mark in UK new car sales in 2025, meaning they are very likely to account for 10% of the market, according to Matthias Schmidt, an analyst tracking electric cars across Europe. Continue reading...
Joe Dromey, head of the Labour thinktank, urges his party to take on the twin populisms' of Reform UK and the GreensThe Green party leader, Zack Polanski, is offering voters unicorns" and Labour must confront his fantasy" solutions such as the idea that a wealth tax would fix the public finances, according to the Fabian Society's general secretary, Joe Dromey.Much of the government's fire is trained on Nigel Farage. But in an end-of-year interview, the head of Labour's internal thinktank urges his party to take on the twin populisms" of Reform and Polanski. Continue reading...
In an unusual turn, the central bank's board debated over monetary policy before the latest quarter-point cutThe US Federal Reserve agreed to cut interest rates at its December meeting only after a deeply nuanced debate about the risks facing the US economy right now, according to minutes of the latest two-day session.Even some of those who supported the rate cut acknowledged the decision was finely balanced or that they could have supported keeping the target range unchanged", given the different risks facing the US economy, according to the minutes released on Tuesday. Continue reading...
by Richard Partington Senior economics correspondent on (#72FQ0)
Inflation is predicted to cool but uncertainty over AI-driven growth and trade policy poses risks in the year aheadThe global economy proved to be more resilient in 2025 than had been feared, despite severe headwinds that ranged from Donald Trump's trade war to geopolitical tensions and the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East.Entering the new year, the hope is that the worst of the recent inflation shock has passed, as the world's most powerful central banks lower interest rates. However, the pre-Covid age of rock-bottom borrowing costs is a distant memory, global growth is slowing and conditions remain fragile. Continue reading...
As the billionaire retires, he leaves memorable advice from his annual letters that include pithy takes on bubbles, discipline and long-term goalsWarren Buffett, the billionaire investor who is retiring at the end of 2025, has entertained and educated shareholders in his Berkshire Hathaway conglomerate for many years with his pithy annual letters outlining the firm's performance.Every year since 1965 he has updated his investors on the journey as Berkshire morphed from a struggling northern textile business" with $25m of shareholder equity when he took over, to an empire worth more than $1tn.Though the price I paid for Berkshire looked cheap, its business - a large northern textile operation - was headed for extinction.My error caused Berkshire shareholders to give far more than they received (a practice that - despite the biblical endorsement - is far from blessed when you are buying businesses).Woody Allen once explained why eclecticism works: The real advantage of being bisexual is that it doubles your chances for a date on Saturday night.'When such a CEO is encouraged by his advisers to make deals, he responds much as would a teenage boy who is encouraged by his father to have a normal sex life. It's not a push he needs.Andrew destroyed a few small insurers. Beyond that, it awakened some larger companies to the fact that their reinsurance protection against catastrophes was far from adequate. (It's only when the tide goes out that you learn who's been swimming naked.)In our view, however, derivatives are financial weapons of mass destruction, carrying dangers that, while now latent, are potentially lethal.Participants seeking to dodge troubles face the same problem as someone seeking to avoid venereal disease: it's not just whom you sleep with, but also whom they are sleeping with.From this irritating reality comes the first law of corporate survival for ambitious CEOs who pile on leverage and run large and unfathomable derivatives books: modest incompetence simply won't do; it's mind-boggling screw-ups that are required.When downpours of that sort occur, it's imperative that we rush outdoors carrying washtubs, not teaspoons. And that we will do.Naturally, I was delighted to attend Mrs B's birthday party. After all, she's promised to attend my 100th.She sold me our interest when she was 89 and worked until she was 103. (After retiring, she died the next year, a sequence I point out to any other Berkshire manager who even thinks of retiring.)The candidates are young to middle-aged, well-to-do to rich, and all wish to work for Berkshire for reasons that go beyond compensation.(I've reluctantly discarded the notion of my continuing to manage the portfolio after my death - abandoning my hope to give new meaning to the term thinking outside the box'.) Continue reading...
Combination of concern about economy and household cost pressures will continue to limit spending, report suggestsUK consumers are reluctant to spend going into 2026 despite feeling almost as secure about their personal finances as they did at the beginning of the year, according to research.A study by the accountancy multinational KPMG found that concerns about the health of the UK economy were holding consumers back from spending, especially on eating out and big ticket items such as cars and furniture. Continue reading...
Exclusive poll: Americans are also increasingly blaming the White House for their financial woesTwice as many Americans believe their financial security is getting worse than better, according to an exclusive new poll conducted for the Guardian, and they are increasingly blaming the White House.The poll, conducted by Harris, will be a further blow to Donald Trump's efforts to fight off criticism of his handling of the economy and contains some worrying findings for the president.Nearly half (45%) of Americans said their financial security is getting worse compared to 20% who said it's getting better.57% of Americans said the US economy is undergoing a recession, up 11% from a similar poll that was conducted in February. Continue reading...
Looking at the government's own report cards, how did the US fare under the first year of Trumponomics 2.0?The US economy is thriving, according to Donald Trump: jobs are surging, prices are falling, wages are soaring. The government's own official statistics paint a more complicated picture of 2025.The Trump Economic Golden Age is FULL steam ahead," the president claimed on social media, after growth data for the third quarter of the year - covering July, August and September - was unexpectedly strong. Continue reading...
Productivity is up in retail and other low-paying sectors as tech replaces relatively expensive humansWalk through a supermarket and the technology is everywhere. Self-service checkouts, electronic shelf labels, handheld barcode scanners and the video screens showing you - caught by AI facial recognition cameras - leaving the shop.In an economy struggling for growth, the encroachment of these machines in our everyday lives could be an early sign of a new dawn - a tech-driven renaissance in activity after years of flatlining growth in productivity and stalled business investment. No bad thing. Continue reading...
Balkan country will become 21st country to adopt EU currency, with policymakers hoping move will boost economyBulgaria is preparing to adopt the euro in January amid fresh domestic political turbulence and fears that Russia-aligned disinformation is deepening distrust of the new currency.The Balkan country of 6.5 million people will become the 21st country to join the eurozone on 1 January, as policymakers in Brussels and Sofia hope it will boost the economy of the EU's poorest nation and cement its pro-western trajectory. Continue reading...
Rightwing parties want to follow in US's footsteps of minimal government intervention, but at what cost?Next month, Donald Trump will welcome a poverty-stricken family to peruse his plans for a $300m glitzy state ballroom in the White House. The event will be staged as part of National Poverty in America Awareness Month, the time every year when charities document the number of US residents surviving on low incomes.Of course, the president will do no such thing, preferring to summon the press to watch him rub shoulders with the billionaire class as he did at last month's black tie dinner for the Saudi ruler and his entourage. Continue reading...
Stockton's JobsPlus is a pilot scheme with caseworkers who connect individual people with potential jobs, providing direct financial help where necessaryWe've had quite a few people on the estate get jobs," says Bryan Stokell, who found work as a full-time security guard thanks to Stockton-on-Tees's JobsPlus project. The 47-year-old father has since become a community champion", encouraging his neighbours to enrol.It got to the point where even my little boy was coming home and saying, my friend's mam and dad are looking for work'," he grins. They [the project] have a lot of contacts, they can open doors into places." Continue reading...
High streets and online sellers set to benefit as cash-strapped consumers eke out post-Christmas bargainsUK shoppers are expected to spend 3.8bn this Boxing Day, 2% more than last year, with online sellers experiencing most of that growth but high streets also enjoying a boost from a renewed appetite for post-Christmas bargains.Boxing Day remains one of the busiest shopping days of the year, but in recent years the dash for the high street has eased as more people opt to search for bargains from the sofa. Continue reading...
High inflation and a cost of living crisis mean that the familiar favourite has become a rare Detty December treat for many in the countryIn Lagos, the holiday season is well under way. For weeks, the roads have been jammed with traffic, concerts headlined by Afrobeats superstars are drawing crowds, and choice spots are filled with residents, returnees and tourists looking to indulge in the month-long enjoyment of Detty December.But the spotlight is on the contents of kitchen pots as much as it is on those shuffling to the trendy Oblee dance steps in clubs and street parties. Continue reading...
Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news, as stocks rise in New York's shortened Christmas Eve sessionIs the Christmas shopping period more of a whimper than a bang for Britain's retailers this year?Shopper traffic yesterday remained stubbornly muted", according to the latest footfall data from Sensormatic Solutions, which shows that visits were 13.1% lower than a year ago.After an unsettled start to the festive period - defined by shaky consumer confidence and spending hesitancy - retailers will be left feeling frustrated that footfall remains stubbornly muted, after many were pinning their hopes on a surge in store traffic yesterday."With consumers leaving purchases right up to the wire, some retailers have released Boxing Day deals early to try and unlock that, so far, elusive consumer spending."What we've seen over the past week is a combination of position squaring in thin markets, after last week's breakdown failed to gain traction, coupled with heightened geopolitical tensions, including the US blockade on Venezuela and supported by last night's robust GDP data." Continue reading...
Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial newsShares in Novo Nordisk have jumped 7.5% this morning after it won approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration for the first weight-loss drug to be administered orally.Yesterday, US regulators gave the green light to a pill version of the blockbuster weight-loss drug Wegovy, the first daily oral medication to treat obesity. Continue reading...
GDP rose at an annualized rate of 4.3% over the third quarter, far higher than expectedThe US economy surged over the summer, the commerce department announced on Tuesday in one of the final snapshots of the nation's finances to be released in 2025.Gross domestic product (GDP) - a broad measure of the value of goods and services - rose at an annualized rate of 4.3% over the third quarter, far higher than expected and its fastest rate in two years. Continue reading...
Beijing's push to dominate technology through state-backed industrial policy is reshaping global trade and could devastate European industryEmmanuel Macron came back from China in early December empty-handed. The French president's appeal to his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, to help stop the war in Ukraine was never going to gain traction given Beijing's unqualified support for Russia.Urging Xi to address China's surging trade surplus, the result of the country's economic and industrial policies, predictably also fell on closed ears. Continue reading...
by Richard Partington Senior economics correspondent on (#72B4T)
Treasury announces 3 March date to prioritise stability and certainty' after criticism of buildup to November budgetRachel Reeves has set a date of 3 March for an early spring statement, as Labour attempts to draw a line under a year of tax speculation that business leaders blamed for damaging Britain's economy.Announcing a date to prioritise stability and certainty", the Treasury said the chancellor had asked the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) to prepare forecasts for the economy and public finances. Continue reading...
by Richard Partington Senior economics correspondent on (#72B2S)
The idea of a customs union has gained traction, but agreeing a deal would be far from straightforwardAlmost a decade on from the Brexit vote, the verdict is clear. Britain's immediate doomsday economic scenario might not have come to pass. But after years of political paralysis - and with the eventual introduction of tougher trade barriers in 2020 - trade, investment and growth in living standards have all suffered.Just as it was on the morning after the 2016 referendum, the big fight is about what the government should do in response. Continue reading...
ONS finds households' savings ratio has dropped to lowest rate for more than a year across third quarterUK consumers saved less money during the third quarter of the year as higher taxes squeezed disposable incomes.The households' saving ratio - which estimates the percentage of disposable income Britons save rather than spend - dropped 0.7 percentage points to 9.5%, the Office for National Statistics said. That is the lowest rate for more than a year. Continue reading...
Group of 120 experts including Joseph Stiglitz urge fresh debt restructuring plan given scale of destructionA group of the world's top economists - including the Nobel prize winner Joseph Stiglitz - have called for Sri Lanka's debt payments to be suspended as it tackles the devastation caused by Cyclone Ditwah.More than 600 people were killed and hundreds of thousands of homes destroyed across the island, in what Sri Lanka's president, Anura Kumara Dissanayake, called the largest and most challenging natural disaster in our history". Continue reading...
Be it better prospects for consumer spending or the tentative signs of rising productivity, the doom and gloom of 2025 could be behind usStalling growth, sticky inflation and fragile bond markets, the UK's economic record in 2025 has hardly been one to inspire cheer. But in the spirit of the festive season, here are a few reasons to hope for a happier new year.The first is that, barring external forces, 2026 should not involve a repeat of this year's fiscal drama. Continue reading...
Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial newsGermany's economic recovery from three years of stagnation will get only a subdued start next year, its central bank has warned.However, the Bundesbank predicts growth will pick up pace later on the back of higher government spending.While progress will be subdued initially, it will then slowly pick up.Starting in the second quarter of 2026, economic growth will strengthen markedly, driven mainly by government spending and a resurgence in exports." Continue reading...