Weak market conditions, US tariffs and downbeat client confidence blamed for drop in factory ordersOuch! The UK manufacturing sector shrank again last month, as factories were hit by weaker demand at home and abroad.The latest monthly poll of purchasing managers across Britain's manufacturing sector found that new orders and new export business both fell at quicker rates in August, leading to another drop in production volumes.Production volumes are still showing resilience in the face of global geopolitical uncertainty and US tariff policies, with both July and August having seen only slight contractions that were milder than those suffered earlier in the year. Business confidence has also lifted to a sixmonth high, reflecting hopes that the trading environment is starting to settle down.However, August also saw a steep drop in UK manufacturers' new orders, with total order books and overseas demand both falling at some of the fastest rates seen over the past two years. Weak market conditions, US tariffs and downbeat client confidence all contributed to the dearth of new contract wins. Job cuts were also reported for a tenth successive month, with factory headcounts dropping to one of the greatest extents postpandemic. Continue reading...
The government needs bold policies in the autumn budget that will change the narrative without startling the marketsAssume that Rip Van Winkle had gone to sleep on the eve of the US election on 4 November 2024 and had woken up on 1 September 2025 and was told that, in the US, developments included:a) Donald Trump had been talking of firing Jerome Powell, the chair of the Federal Reserve, and asserting that only those who believed that short-term interest rates needed to be a lot lower were qualified to be the next Fed chair. Moreover, he had attempted to take the unprecedented step of firing a board governor. Continue reading...
by Richard Partington Senior economics correspondent on (#6ZQ00)
Christine Lagarde issues warning about risks of undermining central bank's independenceDonald Trump's attempt to influence the US Federal Reserve could pose a very serious danger" for the world economy, the head of the European Central Bank has warned.Christine Lagarde, the president of the ECB, said Trump undermining the independence of the world's most powerful central bank would have an impact for the US and other countries. Continue reading...
Chancellor needs to reform an out-of-kilter tax system without alienating voters or spooking financial marketsIt's back to school this week for MPs and government ministers - and few can be facing a more challenging new term than Rachel Reeves. After being moved to tears in the unforgiving glare of the cameras before the summer break, the chancellor's allies say she is returning to the frontline with a renewed sense of purpose. She is ready, as the kids would say, to lock in".But team Reeves is also well aware of the scale of the economic and political obstacles ahead. Most pressing, yet out of the chancellor's hands, is the Office for Budget Responsibility's (OBR) summer supply stocktake" of its economic model. Continue reading...
Republicans once believed governments should get out of the way. Trump is making his influence felt in every corner of the American economyWhen Ronald Reagan became the first US president to address China's Great Hall of the People in 1984, he did not waste an opportunity to school his audience on the benefits of the American way.He boiled down his central economic ideology, and that of his Republican party - that governments should get out of the way, allow companies, industries and markets the space the thrive, without intervention - into a simple mantra: trust the people. Continue reading...
by Robert Mackey, Shrai Popat, Lucy Campbell and Tom on (#6ZN5F)
This blog is now closed. Read the full story hereA visit to Taiwan by two US senators has drawn criticism from China, which claims the island as its own and objects to any contact between officials of the two sides.The chair of the Senate armed services committee, Roger Wicker, and the Nebraska senator Deb Fischer arrived in Taipei on Friday for a series of high-level meetings with senior Taiwanese leaders to discuss US-Taiwan relations, regional security, trade and investment, according to the American Institute in Taiwan, Washington's de facto embassy in lieu of formal diplomatic relations with the self-governing island democracy.A thriving democracy is never fully assured ... and we're here to talk to our friends and allies in Taiwan about what we're doing to enhance worldwide peace. Continue reading...
Low-cost carrier experiences dwindling cash and mounting losses as recovery further hit by Trump tariffsUS no-frills pioneer Spirit Airlines filed for fresh chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on Friday, as dwindling cash and mounting losses derailed its turnaround efforts since emerging from a previous Chapter 11 reorganization in March.The carrier, recognizable by its bright yellow jets, has struggled to steady operations since emerging from its first bankruptcy in March. Flights, ticket sales, reservations and operations will continue, the airline said on Friday. Continue reading...
The US president's move against Lisa Cook shows his despotic bent, but the Fed was never democracy's guardian. It's time to rethink who really controls moneyDonald Trump's attempt to sack the Federal Reserve governor, Lisa Cook, is the familiar authoritarian trick of bending institutions to serve the leader's immediate ends. The widespread condemnation is deserved. This is not some daring experiment in popular control of monetary policy. Yet what should follow censure is reflection. For the furore over MsCook has revealed a peculiar reflex: to defend the Fed's independence as though it were synonymous with democracy itself.But is independence of the Fed, or central banks generally, really that? Eric Levitz at Vox thinks so, or at least that it is close enough. He argues that Congress setsthe Fed's objectives; independence applies only to the means. Without independence, politicians would be free to game rates for votes - as Richard Nixon did in 1972,leaning on the Fed to juice growth before the election. On this view, independence is not anti-democratic but prudent delegation. Continue reading...
Despite sluggish growth and rising borrowing costs, most economists agree that Rachel Reeves doesn't face a repeat of 1976International confidence in the UK government's economic policies had evaporated. Growth was stalling, inflation was galloping, and Labour - back in power after a reckless Conservative administration had gambled on tax cuts - was in deep trouble.It was 1976, when James Callaghan's government was forced to go cap in hand to the International Monetary Fund for an emergency loan. Fast forward almost half a century and some economists are drawing obvious parallels. Continue reading...
Customs agency starts collecting full duties on Friday as Donald Trump ends de minimis exemption for packages worth under $800The US tariff exemption for package shipments valued under $800 officially ended on Friday, raising costs and disrupting supply chain models for a range of businesses, with Trump administration officials saying the change would be permanent.There is now a six-month transition period under which postal service shippers can opt to pay a flat duty of $80-$200 per package depending on the country of origin, the officials added. Continue reading...
IPPR says Rachel Reeves should also urge Bank to halt bond sales to reduce government losses of 22bn a yearRachel Reeves should levy a new bank tax and urge the Bank of England to halt bond sales to reduce the government's 22bn-a-year losses from quantitative easing, the IPPR thinktank has argued.In a report called Fixing the Leak, the IPPR's associate director for economic policy, Carsten Jung, says the Treasury should rein in the costs of QE as public finances are tight. Continue reading...
by Callum Jones and Lauren Aratani in New York on (#6ZMFY)
US president spent months waging campaign against Fed's leaders, which has raised questions over its independenceThe Federal Reserve governor Lisa Cook has filed a lawsuit against Donald Trump over his unprecedented and illegal attempt" to fire her, calling it an attempt to undermine the central bank's independence.The lawsuit - filed by Cook in federal court in Washington on Thursday - sets the stage for a legal battle over the US president's extraordinary push for greater control of the central bank. Continue reading...
by Richard Partington Senior economics correspondent on (#6ZN61)
Britain's shortest-serving prime minister also critical of Bank of England and European Central BankDonald Trump's assault on the independence of the US Federal Reserve has been backed by Liz Truss, the shortest-serving British prime minister in history, who was ousted after a meltdown in the financial markets.The former Conservative leader, who during her 49 days in power in late 2022 railed against the deep state" and the Bank of England for undermining her before she was ejected from office by her own party, said a reckoning" was coming for the world's most powerful central banks. Continue reading...
Chancellor is urged to get a grip' on country's finances as yield on 30-year bond rises to 5.62%The cost of UK government borrowing has jumped to near a 27-year high, piling pressure on Rachel Reeves to reveal how she will tackle the deficit in the public finances before the autumn budget.The yield, or interest rate, on the UK's 30-year bond rose by eight basis points (0.08 of a percentage point) on Tuesday to 5.62%. Continue reading...
Cook's attorney said the president has no authority' and lacks any factual or legal basis' to fire the Fed governorThe Federal Reserve governor Lisa Cook will sue the Trump administration over its bid to fire her over unconfirmed allegations of mortgage fraud, her attorney has said.Donald Trump announced he was firing Cook on Monday night, in an extraordinary move that marks the latest escalation in the US president's attack on the central bank's independence. Continue reading...
Report finds regenerative approach could yield economic benefits while helping to meet environmental targetsThe degradation of nature in the UK will lop nearly 5% off the country's GDP if the private sector does not make a greater effort to halt the decline, experts have warned.Conversely, investing in nature can produce economic returns for companies in a range of sectors, from manufacturing and construction to food, according to a report from the Green Finance Institute (GFI) and WWF. Continue reading...
Food inflation at 4.2% this month, with prices increasing at fastest pace for 18 months, says British Retail ConsortiumA significant" jump in the cost of grocery staples such as eggs and butter is stoking food inflation, according to data pointing to a renewed cost of living squeeze.The British Retail Consortium (BRC) said prices had risen at their fastest pace for 18 months, with food inflation hitting 4.2% this month. This was up from 4% in July and the highest reading since February 2024, according to its monthly shop price monitor. Continue reading...
Once the country's biggest real estate firm, Evergrande was worth more than $50bn at its peak and helped propel China's rapid economic growthEvergrande, formerly one of China's biggest property developers, has been delisted from the Hong Kong stock exchange, capping the end of a long fall from grace.The company was removed from the exchange on Monday after an 18-month freeze on trading, imposed when the developer - once valued at more than HK$400bn (US$50bn) - was put into liquidation. Continue reading...
The singer CMAT dances around a retail centre in a video for her new album. It is the elegy those of us who grew up in the post-Celtic tiger recession have been cravingYou wouldn't know it to look at the tourist board ads, but the emblem of modern Ireland is probably a shopping centre. And now that emblem has found its bard, in the form of Ciara Mary-Alice Thompson, the Irish pop star and songwriter better known as CMAT. She is a woman wielding a creative energy that is completely her own, but which is also profoundly shaped by her experiences coming of age in a post-Celtic tiger, recession-era Ireland. This has never been clearer than on her new single, Euro-Country, from the forthcoming album of the same name - a project that reminds us that pop culture has the power to illuminate political and social realities that are otherwise being ignored. It is the elegy that we, Ireland's post-recession generation, needed - and it references at least two shopping centres.The Euro-Country album artwork is a send-up of Jean-Leon Gerome's painting Truth Coming Out of Her Well, with CMAT emerging from the fountain in Blanchardstown shopping centre, beside a giant euro coin. In an interview with the Guardian before her spectacular Glastonbury performance in June, Thompson observed that while Ireland is a little more fetishised and trendy than it's ever been", it's also a really hard place to live, a really hard place to grow up, unless you have money, which we didn't. So yeah, magical, beautiful, mystical Ireland: it's a shopping centre - that's what I grew up with." Continue reading...
Bank of England governor tells Jackson Hole summit that ageing population is adding to the squeezeBritain faces an acute challenge" from its weak underlying economic growth and a drop in the number of workers since the pandemic, according to the Bank of England governor, Andrew Bailey.A rise in the number of people defined as long-term sick and a big drop in young people in work - factors that he suggested might be intertwined - added to the squeeze created by an ageing population. Continue reading...
The chancellor seems to be waiting for a clearer economic picture to emerge but that is not how government worksThe cruel summer of speculation is here. Barely a day passes without the chancellor, Rachel Reeves, waking to another newspaper headline about possible tax-raising options for her autumn budget.After the bonanza of June's spending review, Reeves had been warned that uncertainty about the public finances would set tongues wagging. Britain's economy has far from shot the lights out since, the global backdrop remains fairly bleak, borrowing costs are high, and inflationary pressures are building. Continue reading...
National Retail Federation estimates families are budgeting an average of nearly $875 for the year for shoppingSummer is drawing to a close and as parents and children get ready for a new school year, their first lesson will be in economics.Most of Donald Trump's tariffs went into effect at the beginning of August. We are still waiting on a deal with China. But with school supplies so dependent on imports, consumers have been anxiously waiting to see how tariffs will affect the prices they see in stores. Continue reading...
President has pressured Jay Powell to slash rates but central bank is trying to find right balance amid tariff tailspinStocks soared on Friday following the strongest signal yet that US the Federal Reserve is gearing up to start cutting interest rates again this fall. But how long can this celebration last?While Wall Street cheered the biggest headline from the speech by the Fed chair, Jerome Powell, at the annual Jackson Hole symposium in Wyoming, Powell also delivered a reality check on where interest rates could settle in the longer term. Continue reading...
by Joanna Partridge (now) Kalyeena Makortoff (earlier on (#6ZGJH)
Chair of the Federal Reserve says US economy is facing challenging situation' as inflation risks persist and job market coolsUnions are raising concerns about the threat of TikTok layoffs, warning it would put millions of British TikTok users at risk.John Chadfield of the Communication Workers Union (CWU) said:TikTok workers have long been sounding the alarm over the real-world costs of cutting human moderation teams in favour of hastily developed, immature AI alternatives.This has been a constant concern throughout the process of TikTok workers' effort to form a union. Continue reading...
by Lauren Aratani and Callum Jones in New York on (#6ZG27)
Powell - whom Trump has urged to resign - addressed challenging' dichotomy of economic risks, including tariffsThe Federal Reserve is gearing up to resume cuts to interest rates, its chair, Jerome Powell, has signaled, as he warned that Donald Trump's tariffs and immigration crackdown had roiled the global economy and hit the US workforce.For months, Powell has ignored demands from the president to cut interest rates and defied Trump's calls to resign. But as the president ramps up his extraordinary attack on the Fed's independence, Powell suggested on Friday that central bank officials are considering a rate cut. Continue reading...
Troubles at UK statistics body are muddying economic picture for Treasury and spending watchdog, sources warnDeep problems at the UK's statistics agency with the quality of its data are piling pressure on officials in the run-up to the autumn budget, sources have told the Guardian.Staff at the Treasury and its independent spending watchdog are struggling to get a clear picture of the economy because of troubles at the Office for National Statistics (ONS) with producing reliable numbers. Continue reading...
Federal Reserve governor Lisa Cook is latest figure targeted by Trump administration over claims of mortgage fraudThe Trump administration is ratcheting up pressure on the Federal Reserve to remove governor Lisa Cook, after the economist declared she had no intention of being bullied" into stepping down.Cook, who was appointed to the US central bank's powerful board of governors by Joe Biden, has been accused by Donald Trump's officials of committing mortgage fraud. The allegations are unconfirmed. Continue reading...
Government borrowing falls to 1.1bn in July as tax receipts rise, but chancellor remains under pressureThings are also looking up in the eurozone, where new orders increased for the first time in 15 months in August, helping lift business activity.Companies also increased their staffing levels for the sixth month running. Meanwhile, inflationary pressures strengthened, with both input costs and output prices rising at sharper rates in August.Things are getting better. Economic activity has picked up in both manufacturing and services. Overall, we've seen a slight acceleration in growth over the past three months. Despite headwinds like US tariffs and general uncertainty, businesses across the eurozone seem to be coping reasonably well. The EU Single Market is likely playing a helpful role here, especially since most export and tourism revenues are generated within the EU.The European Central Bank might wince a little at the rising cost pressures in the services sector. After all, it's banking on slower wage growth to help bring inflation down in this crucial part of the economy. That said, there's a bit of relief in the fact that inflation in service-sector selling prices has remained more or less steady.Foreign orders in the eurozone manufacturing sector have declined for the second month in a row. Germany had been holding up well, possibly due to pre-emptive purchases from the US, but now it's also seeing a drop in orders. France has climbed out of the deep hole of falling foreign demand over the last months, but incoming orders are still on the decline. Continue reading...
At 100 firms in S&P 500 with lowest median pay, executives' comp increased by average of nearly 35% over five yearsSome of the US's lowest-paying large firms increased their CEOs' compensation by an average of almost 35% over five years, according to new research. Their workers' salaries did not keep up.As executive remuneration ballooned, the average CEO-to-worker pay gap across the 100 companies in the S&P 500 with lowest median worker pay - dubbed the Low-Wage 100 by the Institute for Policy Studies - widened by 12.9% between 2019 and 2024, from 560 to 1 to 632 to 1. Continue reading...
by Richard Partington Senior economics correspondent on (#6ZFCB)
The government is adding an extra year, and an extra 45m, to its scheme in England to help people find workGetting started in the world of work was not easy for Rose Green. Having experienced half a dozen children's homes from the age of 13 while growing up in care in north London, finding a career was the last thing on her mind.Having that corporate parenting, it can be difficult," she says. Sometimes things like completing school, or uni, you're faced with so much trauma that you haven't really got the time to finish all of that. Continue reading...
Lisa Cook, first Black woman to sit on Fed board, responds after allegation by ally of president of mortgage fraudDonald Trump has called on a Federal Reserve governor to immediately resign, renewing his extraordinary attack on the central bank's independence as officials mull next steps on interest rates.A close Trump ally accused Lisa Cook, an appointee of Joe Biden, of potentially committing mortgage fraud" and urged the US Department of Justice to investigate. Continue reading...
Rachel Reeves should shift her focus from global financiers to UK savers, says Colin Hines. Plus letters from Prof Stephen Barber, Dr Michael Symonds, Hugh D Bryant and Keith EvesIf Rachel Reeves is serious about ensuring that Labour's second year in power is all about a stronger economy that rewards working people across the country (In our first year Labour fixed the foundations - now we must build a stronger economy for a renewed Britain, 13 August), she needs to rethink what your editorial called the UK's broken growth model" (6 August). The growth that Britain needs is an increase in economic activity that improves social and environmental infrastructure nationwide. This involves a huge increase in secure, well-paid jobs to rebuild a more resilient future economy.The last thing that is required is Reeves's obsession with more deregulation of the City and pressuring savers into investing in the stock market. What is needed instead is a massive increase in a socially and green-oriented bond market that will provide secure returns for savers. Continue reading...
UK inflation accelerates more than expected to 3.8%, highest since early 2024Some economists now expect interest rates to be on hold this year, while the EY Item Club forecasting group says November is a close call'.Elliott Jordan-Doak, senior UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said:All told, July's consumer prices report showed headline inflation matching the monetary policy committee's (MPC) forecasts, as outlined in the August monetary policy report (MPR).Services inflation exceeded the MPC's expectations, but that jump in services consumer prices index (CPI) was partly driven by a sharp move in the erratic airfares component, which could unwind in August's data. That said, the doves on the MPC have taken a battering over the past week. July's figures show sticky underlying services inflation and are another blow to those on the MPC that argued hard at the August meeting about the disinflationary process being underway.Base effects mean CPI inflation is likely to edge up further over the next couple of months and peak in September. Subsequently, inflation should cool gradually. The positive contribution from the energy category is expected to fade towards the end of this year and into next. Meanwhile, food price inflation should slowly cool, as the impact of stronger sterling gradually feeds through. Though services inflation is likely to remain sticky in the near-term, it will start to soften next year, as pay growth continues to cool and the impact of businesses passing on this year's increase in employers' National Insurance Contributions (NICs) fades.In the minutes of its August meeting, the MPC sent a clear message that inflation was its priority again. However, there wasn't much in today's release that should add to the committee's concerns, with headline inflation in line with the Bank of England's staff projections and its measure of underlying services inflation softening. November's meeting will be a close call, with the hawkish shift at the August meeting leaving much greater uncertainty around the timing of the MPC's next cut.We have taken the decisions needed to stabilise the public finances, and we're a long way from the double-digit inflation we saw under the previous government, but there's more to do to ease the cost of living.That's why we've raised the minimum wage, extended the 3 bus fare cap, expanded free school meals to over half a million more children, and are rolling out free breakfast clubs for every child in the country. Through our plan for change we're going further and faster to put more money in people's pockets.Once again, the soaring cost of basic essentials like food and water is pushing families to the brink. Workers and their families are struggling to pay excessive bills. Pressure needs to be taken off family budgets by giving workers a pay rise. The time for action is now. Continue reading...
Decision on neighbourhood health centres expected in autumn but approach divides policy expertsLabour is preparing to kick off a new wave of public-private partnerships (PPPs) in England to build the neighbourhood health centres at the heart of its NHS 10-year plan.Ministers will make a final decision in the autumn budget about whether to use the funding approach, which was put on pause eight years ago. Continue reading...
In today's newsletter: The local tax remains based on property values from 1991. Now, with services stretched, ministers face the near-impossible task of rewriting the rulesGood morning. Britain's fiscal outlook is bleak. The chancellor, Rachel Reeves, faces the daunting task of closing a 40bn black hole in the public finances.There is intense speculation over how she intends to, as runs that oft-used phrase, balance the books. This week, my colleagues have reported that the chancellor is considering a new proportional" property tax. It would mark a radical overhaul of stamp duty and council tax.Ukraine | Donald Trump ruled out the deployment of American troops in Ukraine in his first interview after yesterday's White House meeting with the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and European leaders.UK news | Keir Starmer's asylum plans have been plunged into turmoil after a high court ruling blocked people seeking refuge from being housed in an Essex hotel.Gaza | Israel has said it will deliver its response to international mediators by Friday over a new Gaza ceasefire plan accepted by Hamas amid mounting pressure for a truce.UK politics | A Reform UK-led county council has served its residents a plate of chaos" from the start of its leadership, according to its Conservative opposition.Work | Older employees who are disturbed by younger, more boisterous colleagues in the workplace are not victims of age harassment, an employment tribunal has ruled. Continue reading...
Experts say undermining green protections and research funding is against the principles of economicsThree leading US economists are urging their peers around the world to push back against Donald Trump's attack on environmental laws.In what amounts to a call to action to economists, the trio say rollback of environmental regulations is inconsistent or antithetical" to fundamental principles of economics over how to allocate the world's limited resources for the greatest possible value to society.Withdrawal from the Paris climate agreement.Eliminating consideration in federal policy of the well-established effects of climate breakdown on public welfare.Executive orders to drill baby drill" giving priority to fossil fuel energy production.Ending research funding on environment and climate and the collection of environmental data.Reducing investments and regulations designed to tackle lead and forever chemicals in drinking water. Continue reading...
Communities feel powerless because the law gives betting firms the upper hand. But a simple change could transfer power to the people Dawn Butler is MP for Brent EastWalking down their local high streets, people in Britain are increasingly unlikely to come across a local butcher, baker or grocery shop, and more likely to find betting shops, casinos, adult gaming centres (AGC) and so-called bingo venues, where traditional bingo is muscled out by money-sapping slot machines. These establishments are taking over our town centres at an alarming rate. From talking to my constituents in Brent, west London, and residents across the capital, I know that people have had enough.That's why this summer I have launched a campaign for urgent reform of our gambling laws. Ministers must give local authorities and people greater power to tackle this issue and reclaim our high streets. Currently, billionaire-owned overseas corporations have too much power, and local people have none. That needs to change. And it's time to raise the gambling tax. As Gordon Brown, a former Labour chancellor and prime minister, recently pointed out, it is now an under-taxed industry. With a modest increase we could raise 3bn a year.Dawn Butler is MP for Brent East Continue reading...
The UK's plans seem to outsource sovereignty for phantom efficiency. Public services provide the data and power while US tech giants reap the rewardsThere was a time when Britain aspired to be a leader in technology. These days, it seems content to be a willing supplicant - handing over its data, infrastructure and public services to US tech giants in exchange for the promise of a few percentage points of efficiency gains. Worryingly, the artificial intelligence strategy of SirKeir Starmer's government appears long on rhetoric, short on sovereignty and built on techno-utopian assumptions. Last week Peter Kyle, the technology secretary, was promoting the use of AI-generated discharge letters in the NHS. The tech, he said, will process complex conversations between doctors and patients, slashing paperwork and streamlining services. Ministers say that by applying AI across the public sector, the government can save 45bn.But step back and a more familiar pattern emerges. As Cecilia Rikap, a researcher at University College London, told the Politics Theory Other podcast, Britain risks becoming a satellite of the US tech industry - a nation whose public infrastructure serves primarily as a testing ground and data source for American AI models hosted on US-owned cloud computing networks. She warned that the UK should not become a site of extractivism", in which value - whether in the form of knowledge, labour or electricity - is supplied by Britain but monetised in the US.Do you have an opinion on the issues raised in this article? If you would like to submit a response of up to 300 words by email to be considered for publication in our letters section, please click here. Continue reading...
Economics | The Guardian