Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news, as Opec+ pauses oil output hikes beyond December amid fears of a crude glutShares in Italian drinks maker Campari have fallen almost 3% tthis morning after Italian tax police seized 1.29bn worth of shares in the company, held by its controlling shareholder, following a tax evasion investigation.On Friday police said they were seizing Campari shares held by its controlling company Lagfin after a probe found 5.3bn of allegedly undeclared capital gains.The booking cycle for academic year 2025/26 has seen an increase in reservations from UK students and a reduction in the number of Chinese students staying with us, potentially the result of geopolitical events.Rental growth remains in line with guidance and we are well positioned for January sales activity. All the while, we have continued to improve the quality of the portfolio whilst delivering on capital deployment commitments." Continue reading...

EY Item Club downgrades forecast for next year, with Office for Budget Responsibility expected to follow suitThe prospect of looming tax rises and a fall in business investment will restrict the UK's economic growth rate next year to less than 1%, according to a health check of the economy by a leading consultancy.With less than four weeks before Rachel Reeves delivers her budget on 26 November, the EY Item Club has downgraded Britain's growth for next year, indicating that the economy will continue to expand at a sluggish pace, limiting tax receipts and the chancellor's financial room for manoeuvre. Continue reading...

Oxfam warns Trump policies risk driving inequality to new heights - but Democrats have also exacerbated wealth gapThe collective wealth of the top 10 US billionaires has soared by $698bn in the past year, according to a new report from Oxfam America published on Monday on the growing wealth divide.The report warns that Trump administration policies risk driving US inequality to new heights, but points out that both Republican and Democratic administrations have exacerbated the US's growing wealth gap. Continue reading...

The US high court will hear arguments on whether Trump's erratic imposition of global tariffs is legally validDonald Trump thrives on emergencies. He cried havoc on the very first day of his second term, declaring a national emergency caused by an invasion" of illegal aliens" from Mexico. He has since invoked emergencies more than any president since the passage of the National Emergencies Act in 1976.Next Wednesday, he faces another of his own making, as the US supreme court hears oral arguments on whether his globe-shaking signature economic policy - tariffs - is legally valid. Continue reading...

A debate on how to achieve fairer, greener growth could point the way to a successor for neoliberal capitalismWhat replaces neoliberal capitalism is a question at the forefront of Donald Trump's mind every day.The US president has never much liked those elements of the Washington consensus that celebrate free markets and liberal trade, as we have come to see in both his presidencies. Continue reading...

Poor output since the leave vote has landed Rachel Reeves with a bigger-than-forecast budget spending gapFor Rob Rooney, the impact of Brexit for the City of London is clear. Frankfurt, Madrid, Milan and Paris are all doing better than they were. It has been at London's expense. There is no question about that."In his time as Morgan Stanley's top executive in London, Rooney led the US investment bank's relocation of hundreds of bankers and billions of pounds of assets to Frankfurt to sidestep Britain's shock EU departure. More than 440 other City companies followed suit, moving almost 1tn between them - roughly 10% of the entire UK banking system - to financial hubs across the EU. Continue reading...

Mark Carney warns Asia-Pacific leaders global economy undergoing profound change, as China's president mounts defence of free tradeThe Canadian prime minister, Mark Carney, has warned that the era of free trade and investment that formed the foundations of the postwar global economy has ended.In a stark message to Asia-Pacific leaders at the Apec summit in South Korea on Friday, Carney said rules-based open trade no longer worked in a global economy that was undergoing one of its most profound periods of change since the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989. Continue reading...

Talk of small boats' may dominate politics and the media, but the cost of living crisis is what most adults spend their time worrying aboutWage increases finally began to outpace price rises in June 2023, so we could technically class the previous month as the height of the cost of living crisis. Certainly, May that year was when the headlines about butter peaked. Lurpak and Anchor, both owned by the same dairy co-op, Arla, had reduced the size of their standard butter pack from 250g to 200g. The price was brought down accordingly, in due course, but for a while, certain supermarkets were still charging half-pound prices for a what would we even call 200g?" pack.The problem was, butter units are universal. A half-pound of butter always weighs the same amount in your hand, regardless of the brand. Seeing the small version in a supermarket felt almost sci-fi, like a tiny off-key detail that alerts you to the fact you've been kidnapped by aliens into a simulacrum world. They would have gotten away with it, but for that tiny flaw. Forced by the outcry to release a statement, the brand said it was trying to make prices more accessible" for consumers. One almost feels embarrassed for it, flailing around for cosy equality language that didn't explain its butter-miniatures at all.Zoe Williams is a Guardian columnist Continue reading...

Key deposit rate kept at 2% even as recovery starts to drive up price growth across bloc

Prices to spike by 10.8% this year, with some chocolatey treats seeing upticks of at least 20%, analysis showsGhosts and goblins might not be the only scary things popping up this Halloween. Prices for the holiday's most popular candy treats are rising, spooked by Donald Trump's tariffs and climate change.Candy prices are estimated to increase by 10.8% this year, according to new analysis from progressive groups the Century Foundation and the Groundwork Collaborative, with some popular chocolate-based treats seeing price upticks of at least 20%. The price increases could mean popular candy like Tootsie Rolls and Hershey's chocolate and variety packs are a few dollars more expensive than just a year ago. Continue reading...

From tariffs to rare earths, Chinese and US presidents make outstanding group of decisions' at crunch trade talks

Prospect of a tough budget is thought to have brought forward the likely date for a cut in interest rates to 3.75%The threat of higher taxes in next month's budget and concerns about slowing economic growth pushed the pound to its lowest level against the euro in more than two and a half years at one point on Wednesday.Sterling also slumped against the dollar as traders digested news that Rachel Reeves will need to fill a larger hole in the public finances when she puts together her budget plan, after a bigger-than-expected downgrade to the UK's productivity outlook. Continue reading...

Central bank sets rates at range between 3.75% and 4% amid turbulence from government shutdown and Trump's tariffsThe US Federal Reserve cut interest rates on Wednesday, the second rate cut this year amid economic turbulence from the federal government shutdown and Donald Trump's tariffs.The decision to cut the Fed's benchmark interest rate by a quarter point to a range of 3.75% to 4% comes at an extraordinary moment for the central bank. The Fed has been under immense pressure from Donald Trump to cut rates despite persistent inflation and no longer has access to key data thanks to the shutdown. Continue reading...

A $40bn rescue may have helped Javier Milei scrape through midterms, but it leaves Argentina's democracy and economy more dependent than ever on WashingtonArgentina's rightwing president, Javier Milei, his party and its allies claimed victory this week in key congressional elections. But it was Donald Trump who emerged the biggest winner. A $40bn lifeline from the US president gave Mr Milei's beleaguered government just enough credibility - and apparent firepower - to halt the Argentinian peso's slide. Crucially, this helped to stabilise consumer prices in the final weeks of the campaign. The US rescue engendered a short-lived aura of competence that allowed Mr Milei to shift the blame for rising prices back to the opposition, despite his own role in accelerating inflation by devaluing the currency when he took office.Mr Milei's wasn't a decisive triumph. His rightwing coalition got 40% of the midterms vote thanks largely to a low turnout and a fragmented opposition. His chainsaw" programme of privatisation and public spending cuts has not been popular. Polls suggest that six in 10 voters disapprove. Unsurprising, perhaps: since Mr Milei took office in December 2023, Argentinians' purchasing power has fallen sharply, real wages have declined and more than 200,000 jobs have been lost.Do you have an opinion on the issues raised in this article? If you would like to submit a response of up to 300 words by email to be considered for publication in our letters section, please click here. Continue reading...

With living standards falling and the far right on the rise, the chancellor has the power to make decisions, not simply accept diktats from the marketsMore than three decades ago, James Carville, political adviser to Bill Clinton, made what became a famous quip about the power of bond markets to intimidate everybody". Clinton had entered office promising to transform the US's infrastructure, only to be told that big public spending would spook investors, drive up borrowing costs, and sink his presidency.Today, if there is one thing that Britain has in common with Clinton's US, it's that the bond markets loom large again in political discussion. Clinton shelved large-scale investment plans and slashed welfare in the belief that doing so would prove his economic credibility with investors. Likewise, in Britain, ever since Liz Truss's botched mini-budget, politicians have continually pointed to the risk of bond market revolt as the reason why public investment can't be afforded.Sahil Dutta is a lecturer in political economy and co-author of Unprecedented: How Covid-19 Revealed the Politics of Our Economy Continue reading...

I don't pretend the choices will be easy, but my budget has one focus: to invest in building a better future for everyone

Exclusive: Fiscal watchdog predicts productivity downgrade will leave chancellor with 20bn gap to fill in budget

UK chancellor confident of Gulf trade deal, as she faces 20bn-plus hit to public finances from UK productivity downgradeSteve Bates, executive chairman of the Office for Life Sciences, said a good US deal" would quickly resolve" the issue of a lack of confidence of big pharmaceutical companies such as AstraZeneca and MSD in the UK, and its impact on investment decisions.Quizzed by MPs on the science committee, Bates, who took up his new job at OLS in September after running the BioIndustry Association for 13 years, said:So I think a good deal with the USA can quickly resolve it, is the simple answer for that.I'm saying that if the UK can get a fantastic domestic business environment allied to access to global markets, that's a fantastic base from which any companies would want to grow for the world.I think for brand new, innovative medicines, it's likely there will be some price increase.If you go back to 2015 the spend on medicines was about 12% [of total NHS spending] if you go back earlier, it was higher, it was about 14%. It's now about 9%. So there is a possibility of increasing percentage spend. Continue reading...

Rachel Reeves faces bigger-than-expected hit in 26 November budget from revised OBR forecast

Which? finds products shrinking while supermarkets keep prices flat or risingToothpaste, coffee and even heartburn medicine are among the latest products quietly shrinking in size while shoppers pay the same price, piling more pressure on household grocery budgets.Consumer watchdog Which? found a range of new examples of shrinkflation as brands cut back on quantity and quality in an effort to reduce their own costs. Continue reading...

Five ways the chancellor could mitigate a UK inflation rate that is harming households - and Labour's vote shareAfter more than three years of the cost of living crisis, Rachel Reeves is well aware of the harm inflation is inflicting on UK households - and on Labour's share of the vote.While figures out last week suggested that the annual rate of price increases may now have peaked, the chancellor focused on its continuing human impact, saying: For too long, our economy has felt stuck, with people feeling like they are putting in more and getting less out. That needs to change." Continue reading...

For weeks now, thousands of Sydneysiders have queued for up to hours at a time, hoping to cash in on the soaring price of gold. Investors view the precious metal as a safe haven during times of economic uncertainty and despite fluctuating prices, gold is having its biggest rally since the 1970s.

While the European countries have brought their spending under control, the US president's tax cuts and defence spending will lead to increased borrowingDonald Trump is on course to push US debt levels above those of Italy and Greece by the end of the decade after wide-ranging tax cuts and increased defence spending, according to International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts.Illustrating the rising debt levels in Washington and efforts made by Rome and Athens to bring spending under control after the 2008 financial crash and Covid-19 pandemic, the IMF predicts the US will see its debts climb from 125% to 143% of annual income by 2030, while Italy's will flatline at about 137%. Continue reading...

A decade ago, a prominent analysis was falsely cast as a call for austerity. Our real offence was suggesting there might be a trade-off between debt and growthIt's not easy being a centrist economist in today's polarised, social media-driven world, where every idea is quickly forced into one ideological camp or another. To paraphrase a remark often attributed to Leon Trotsky, centrist economists may not be interested in war but war is interested in them.My 2016 book The Curse of Cash, which explored the past, present and future of money, is a case in point. After its publication, I received more than 20 death threats, some clearly from drug dealers and gun owners outraged by my call to phase out $100 bills, and others from crypto evangelists who considered my support for regulation an act of treason. Continue reading...

In her new book Having it All, Corinne Low outlines how stubborn expectations around work and home fail to accommodate working womenWhen Corinne Low gave birth to her son in 2017, everything seemed to be lining up. A tenure-track economist at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School, she was working in a career she had long dreamed of. Her husband, stepchild and baby lived in New York City and the two-hour commute to Philadelphia was inconvenient but sustainable. She was embarking on a journey to do it all: a working mom, supporting her family with a career she loved.As track repairs tripled her commute time, things suddenly felt like they were falling apart. Instead of getting home in time to put her baby son to bed, Low found herself sobbing while breast pumping in an Amtrak bathroom. Continue reading...

Argentina is counting the cost of its turn to Javier Milei. Politicians from Donald Trump to Giorgia Meloni and Nigel Farage will be closely watching what happens nextCambio, cambio." Under the blazing sun, dozens of money changers are hawking US dollars along Florida Street, a bustling pedestrian strip in Buenos Aires. Known as arbolitos (little trees"), they are thriving ahead of the 26 October midterm elections in a country long used to saving in the greenback.The best time to buy is now," says one arbolito, declining to give her name. [The dollar] went down a little but it is a fake-out - it'll rise again." Continue reading...

Anxiety and economic stress among federal employees as Republicans and Democrats remain deadlocked on billMore furloughs, more anxiety and more economic stress are bearing down on federal employees as the shutdown of the federal government continues into its fourth week with Republicans and Democrats at a standstill on negotiating a budget deal.There's no sight of this ending and we're starting to wonder if we're going to be made whole and if this is going to continue into the next round of pay, which is what we're headed into now. On Friday, we will be missing our first full paycheck," Johnny Jones, council secretary treasurer for the American Federation of Government Employees (AFGE) TSA Council 100, and a TSA employee in Dallas-Fort Worth, Texas, said. Continue reading...

We hear your stories of how you balance the family finances, from buying own brands to cutting right back on weekly shopFood prices are ridiculous, but it's the fact they are still rising that is keeping me awake at night," says Nikki of the strain caused by higher grocery bills.The mother of two from Aberdeenshire adds: My weekly shop with in-between top-ups now costs in excess of 220 and is fast becoming unaffordable. Before 2020, I was spending 135 a week." Continue reading...

Increase was largely driven by a 4.1% increase in gasoline prices despite Trump's campaign pledge to end inflation'Prices continued to rise in September, increasing at an annual rate of 3%, according to the latest government inflation report.The September 2025 consumer price index (CPI) was published approximately two weeks later than usual due to the federal government shutdown, which haltedall Bureau of Labor Statistics operations. Continue reading...

Insiders say chancellor is planning a tax raid on partnership structures that could raise 1.9bn

Shares in oil companies jump after US sanctions Russian energy firms, while manufacturers see weak prospects aheadYesterday's weaker-than-expected UK inflation report has sparked chat that the Bank of England could cut interest rates sooner than expected.Deutsche Bank say there is now an interesting debate" on whether there may be enough ammunition for the Bank's monetary policy committee to cut borrowing costs as soon as its next meeting in early November.What's the case for November? Relative to the Bank's projections, growth has surprised to the downside, private sector AWE growth has surprised to the downside, unemployment has risen in line with Bank expectations, and inflation now sits a healthy amount below the Bank's projections. Indeed, one could make the argument that the ingredients for a November rate cut are there.So, why not November? We think three things will be important for the MPC to see before dialling down restrictive policy again. One, the MPC may want to see some indicative signs that inflation expectations are coming down - and we should see some signs of tempering in the coming months as spot CPI slows in Q4-25. Two, the Budget. Consolidation is one part of the puzzle. The other is what the Chancellor does to trim 2026 CPI - something we think will be very important given our projections of ~2.6% y/y CPI next year. And third, pay settlements. The MPC has yet to see the Low Pay Commission's NLW announcement and subsequently what that does to pay settlements. We won't have much detail on private sector pay deals until after the November meeting. Put simply, there's a lot more information to be had in December than November.The chips manufactured by the affected manufacturers are important parts used in electronic control units, etc., and we recognize that this incident will have a serious impact on the global production of our member companies.We hope that the countries involved will come to a prompt and practical solution." Continue reading...

The world will be pushed into a recession, but perhaps we can build something more promising from the piecesThe world economy hinges on the success or failure of artificial intelligence. It's becoming apparent that we are probably doomed either way.Employment growth is stuck and wage growth is slowing, especially among low-paying jobs. Loan delinquencies are rising, driving an increase in bankruptcies. Consumer confidence has collapsed. And reckless policymaking is taking its toll. Donald Trump's trade war is cutting farmers' access to the Chinese market and manufacturers' access to Chinese rare-earth magnets. His clampdown on migration is hitting access to labor, from agriculture to healthcare. The drawn-out government shutdown is starting to sap economic growth. Continue reading...

Annual September rate confounds forecasts of a rise, as pace of food price growth slows for first time since March

Inflation figures raise chance of December interest rate cutEurostar is to start running doubledecker trains through the Channel tunnel to meet growing demand for international rail travel from the UK - but not until 2031.The rail operator announced it had signed a 2bn (1.7bn) deal for at least 30 - and up to 50 - new trains from the manufacturer Alstom. Continue reading...

Policymakers under pressure for rethink after price growth in UK remained at 3.8% in September

Hourly rate to increase by 95p to 14.80 in London and by 85p to 13.45 for the rest of the countryAlmost half a million workers are to receive a pay boost after it was announced that the real living wage paid voluntarily by 16,000 UK companies will rise to 13.45 an hour.Distinct from the national living wage, which is a statutory minimum, the real living wage is calculated each year based on the cost of essentials, and is paid by more than half of the companies in the FTSE 100. Continue reading...

Economic development strategist who helped make Glasgow a cultural centre of international standing in the 1980s and 90sWhen Stuart Gulliver arrived in Glasgow in 1978 to work as an economic development strategist, the city was desperately in need of a plan. Its population had crashed by almost 25% in the previous 20 years. Its swagger as the empire's second city, with a Manhattan-style grid and a wealth of grandiloquent but by then decaying architecture, had evaporated. Its factories, shipyards and steelworks were closing.The people of Glasgow were getting steadily poorer and sicker. And as one wit suggested at the time, its only tourists were people who had got lost trying to go somewhere else. Continue reading...

Chancellor, who is expected to announce tax rises and spending cuts, says effect of leaving bloc worse than predictedRachel Reeves has blamed a heavier than anticipated blow from Brexit and austerity for forcing her to take action to balance the books at next month's budget.In her clearest attempt to draw Brexit into the framing of her imminent tax and spending decisions, the chancellor said leaving the EU was turning out to have caused more damage than official forecasters had previously outlined. Continue reading...

Investment in offices falls amid uncertainty over pricing, volatile geopolitics and the economy

Andrew Bailey says a close look is needed at the private credit market after collapse of two big US firmsThe governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, has warned recent events in US private credit markets have worrying echoes of the sub-prime mortgage crisis that kicked off the global financial crash of 2008.Appearing before a House of Lords committee, the governor said it was important to have the drains up" and analyse the collapse of two leveraged US firms, First Brands and Tricolor, in case they were not isolated events but the canary in the coalmine". Continue reading...

Rising debt interest and welfare costs push public finances deeper into red before Rachel Reeves's budget

Public finances figures contain no shocks but will underline need for either hefty tax rises or spending cuts

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Crash that hit apps and websites around world demonstrates urgent need for diversification in cloud computing'Experts have warned of the perils of relying on a small number of companies for operating the global internet after a glitch at Amazon's cloud computing service brought down apps and websites around the world.The affected platforms included Snapchat, Roblox, Signal and Duolingo as well as a host of Amazon-owned operations including its main retail site and the Ring doorbell company. Continue reading...

GDP rises by 4.8% year on year between July and September, down from second-quarter growth rate of 5.2%

Andrew Ross Sorkin's new book 1929 takes readers back to the crash that changed the US and looks at what we can learn from it todayAndrew Ross Sorkin's first book, Too Big to Fail, was a bestseller about the financial crisis of 2008, published the following year. His second, 1929, out this week, takes readers Inside the Greatest Crash in Wall Street History - and How it Shattered a Nation".It's been 16 years between books, but Sorkin hasn't been idle. A columnist for the New York Times, he founded its DealBook newsletter and summit; he's a Squawk Box co-anchor for CNBC; and after Too Big to Fail was filmed by HBO, he co-created Billions, a huge hit for Showtime starring Damian Lewis and Paul Giamatti. Continue reading...

First Brands and Tricolor failures raise concerns for wider financial sector, including traditional banksThe collapse of two US firms, First Brands and Tricolor, has shone a light on private credit and its growing influence in the global economy.The failures have led to ballooning losses at traditional banks, and, coupled with worries about the health of US regional banks, have raised concerns about weak lending standards and potential threats from an opaque corner of the so-called shadow banking sector. Continue reading...

European stock markets have fallen after two US regional lenders disclosed on Thursday that they were exposed to alleged fraud by borrowers

Worries over private credit, tax and spend, skittish bond markets and tariff chaos dominate meeting in WashingtonThe security blanket is covering us, but maybe we have a foot out in the cold." That was the typically colourful warning from the International Monetary Fund's managing director, Kristalina Georgieva, this week to its gathering of finance ministers in Washington.At its spring meetings in April, the IMF said the erratic trade policies emanating from the White House, half a mile away from its glass and steel HQ, amounted to a major negative shock" for the global economy. Continue reading...

Boost for Rachel Reeves as bond yield falls while she considers tax rises and spending cuts in budget