Economics | The Guardian

Analysts say choice of Kevin Warsh as next Fed chair has triggered heavy losses in precious metal pricesUK house prices have also fallen - although it's a better picture if you adjust for seasonal factors.The average price of a UK property fell in January, to 270,873, down from 271,068 in December, according to Nationwide Building Society.The start of 2026 saw a slight pick-up in annual house price growth, which rose to 1.0% in January, after slowing to 0.6% in December. Prices increased by 0.3% month on month in January, after taking account of seasonal effects.Housing market activity also dipped at the end of 2025, most likely reflecting uncertainty around potential property tax changes ahead of the Budget. Nevertheless, the number of mortgages approved for house purchase remained close to the levels prevailing before the pandemic. Continue reading...

CIPS warns of cracks' in global supply chain affecting computers, electrical machinery and transport equipmentThe price of consumer goods including computers, electrical machinery and transport equipment could surge this year as a result of soaring shipping costs, an industry body has said, adding that cracks [are] forming in the global trading system".The cost of transport, energy and raw materials continues to rise and prices remain volatile, which could feed through to businesses and consumers during 2026, according to a study by the Chartered Institute of Procurement and Supply (CIPS). Continue reading...

Labour's changes to the student loan system have turned frustration into full-blown fury, which is likely to benefit its opponents at the ballot box

Trump's wounding of the US economy offers Beijing an unparalleled opportunity - if it dials back its overbearing trade tacticsWhen the Canadian prime minister, Mark Carney, took to the podium at the World Economic Forum in Davos last week to lament how great economic powers" were dismantling the international order, it seemed clear that he was talking about the United States. He might have been talking about China as well.Not a week earlier, Beijing had revealed that China's trade surplus ballooned by 20% in 2025, to $1.2tn. Despite Donald Trump's wall of tariffs that crashed Chinese sales to the US, its overall exports expanded more than 5%. Sales to the 11 countries in Asia's Asean bloc increased more than 13%. Exports to the European Union rose over 8%. Chinese imports, by contrast, were flat. Continue reading...

Pick of former Fed governor to replace Jerome Powell comes as White House seeks to tighten grip on central bankDonald Trump has announced Kevin Warsh as his nomination for the next chair of the Federal Reserve, selecting a candidate who has been an outspoken critic of the US central bank.The move ends months of speculation about who the president would pick to replace Jerome Powell, as he waged an extraordinary campaign to influence policymaking at the Fed by repeatedly calling for interest rate cuts. Powell's second term as chair is due to end in May. Continue reading...

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news

US president warns against closer ties with China during British PM's trip to secure lower tariffs and better market accessDonald Trump has warned the UK against doing business with China, just hours after Keir Starmer lauded the economic relationship during a landmark visit to Beijing.The US president said it was very dangerous" for the UK to pursue closer ties with the rival superpower as the prime minister's three-hour talks with Xi Jinping underlined a thaw in previously strained relations. Continue reading...

Choice of former Fed governor to succeed Jerome Powell comes amid attack on central bank's independence

Several deals have been struck so far but there does not appear to be a big bundle of investments worth billionsKeir Starmer will be pleased that he has secured several agreements to mark his visit to Beijing and by the warm tone of President Xi Jinping's remarks about his government. However, No 10's announcements do not put a figure on the value of the deals, and there does not appear to be a big bundle of investments worth billions by Chinese or British firms, which prime ministers have usually tended to hold up as a sign of success. These are the agreements secured by the UK so far. Continue reading...

Experts say factors including Trump's aggressive policies and pressure on the dollar are pushing investors toward safe haven' of precious metalsLast year's extraordinary run in precious metals has only intensified in 2026, as Donald Trump has continued to rip up the rules of the global economy.Gold has been on a tear since last summer, repeatedly breaking records. It has risen by more than a quarter this month and hit a new high of just under $5,595 (4,060) an ounce on Thursday. Continue reading...

PM praised for not pressuring Xi over his ties with Putin on a trip seen as business taking precedence over politics'Keir Starmer's visit to Beijing has been cautiously welcomed by Chinese state media as an act of economic pragmatism by a beleaguered British prime minister.The presence of 50 business and cultural leaders with Starmer, who is the first British prime minister to visit China in eight years, was taken as a sign that the UK was prioritising its ailing economy over political considerations. Continue reading...

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news, as metal prices continue to soarThe weak dollar has helped to drive the copper price to a record high today too.The benchmark three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange jumped almost 8% to a new all-time peak of $14,125 a tonne, before slipping back slightly.Investors are piling into base metals on the Shanghai Futures Exchange on expectations for stronger US growth and more spending on data centers, robotics and power infrastructure. That's spurring global prices higher.Inflation is close to the target of 2 percent.The Swedish economy is growing at a solid pace. The labour market is weak but showing signs of improvement. Continue reading...

Keir Starmer held talks with the Chinese leader Xi Jinping this week and proclaimed Britain should have a more sophisticated' relationship with China. Pippa Crerar, who was with the prime minister on the trip, tells Kiran Stacey what all this means Continue reading...

The mother of all deals' is as much about the tariff-heavy geopolitics of the Trump era as it is about bilateral tradeThe year was 2007. Steve Jobs had announced the launch of the first iPhone, the sub-prime mortgage crisis was bubbling up in the US, the EU had enlarged to include Romania and Bulgaria, and India had for the first time become a trillion-dollar economy. This was when trade talks between Delhi and Brussels were initiated for the first time. But it wouldn't be until this very week, almost 20 years later, that a deal was signed after a few final months of unusually accelerated negotiations.On Tuesday, the president of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Council Antonio Costa and India's prime minister, Narendra Modi, announced the mother of all deals", which promises to bring together about 2 billion consumers and a quarter of the world's GDP. The agreement opens parts of India's famously protectionist domestic market with a focus on exporting manufacturing and services; in return, middle-class Indian consumers will find it cheaper to buy European cars and wine. The overarching EU-India comprehensive strategic agenda is really much larger in scope, taking in defence and security, commitments to multilateralism, mobility and cooperation in a range of areas.Ravinder Kaur is professor of Asian studies at the University of Copenhagen and is writing a book about the history of the global south Continue reading...

In today's newsletter: With China now central to the world's green tech and economic future, the UK faces a series of strategic discussions it can no longer postponeGood morning. The Starmer has landed.Yesterday, Keir Starmer became the first British prime minister to make the trip to China since Theresa May's in 2018 (meaning a surprisingly large number of PMs didn't) and has vowed to bring stability and clarity" to the UK's approach to Beijing.Iran | Donald Trump has warned time is running out for Tehran and said a massive US armada was moving quickly towards the country.Assisted Dying | Supporters of assisted dying will seek to force through the bill using an archaic parliamentary procedure if it continues to be blocked by the Lords.UK politics | Centrist ideas are no longer wanted in the Conservative party, Kemi Badenoch has said.Ofsted | A snap inspection of a Bristol secondary school criticised for postponing a visit by an MP who is a member of a group that advocates for Israel has found no evidence of partisan political views".BBC | The BBC has named senior executive Rhodri Talfan Davies as its interim director general, as the corporation continues the search for a permanent replacement for Tim Davie. Continue reading...

Newton Aycliffe was meant to be a model town for a fairer postwar Britain. But unaffordable rents on a high street amounting to 0.12% of its property tycoon owner's holdings have made it a symbol of decline - and a warning for Labour

Experts say business with China is always a double-edged sword let alone when its overheated economy can offer only marginal gains

The package being offered is not insignificant but the hospitality sector is still in troubleWill the chancellor's inevitable U-turn on business rates for pubs be enough to quieten the developing riot behind the taps? Possibly, a bit. After two months of damaging headlines, Rachel Reeves has granted pubs a 15% discount on bills, worth 1,650 on average in the next tax year, then a two-year freeze in real terms, with the promise of a change in methodology in time for the next revaluation in 2029. Live music venues get the same deal. The package is not insignificant, especially as it was the year-three escalation in bills that was causing the most angst.Yet it would be a mistake to think the government's troubles on business rates end there. First, and most significantly, the rest of the hospitality industry got nothing extra in Tuesday's announcement beyond a similar pledge to rethink valuation methods for hotels in future. Continue reading...

Wide-ranging deal will cut tariffs to zero over seven years as Modi hails largest free trade agreement' in India's historyThe European carmakers' association has welcomed the EU's trade deal with India, saying it sent a strong statement of intent by both parties to furthering more open and mutually beneficial trade relations."It will greatly help European automobile exports enter a market of 4 million passenger cars that, until now, has been protected by prohibitively high import tariffs of up to 110%," the European Automobile Manufacturers Association, or ACEA, added. Continue reading...

Tariffs cut to zero for many industrial products, including iron and steel, plastics, chemicals and pharmaceuticals

Does Britain have any leverage over human rights or security concerns or is it a decaying nation that cannot risk trade relations?This week, Keir Starmer will reportedly visit China. This will be the first trip of this kind by a British prime minister since Theresa May's three-day visit to Beijing in 2018. Since then, relations between London and Beijing have become increasingly fraught, caught between growing security concerns and deep economic interdependence. Allegations of espionage and influence operations have sharpened political and public suspicion in the UK, even as deep trade links and supply chains on which the country depends make disengagement unrealistic. As fierce debate about the recent approval for the new Chinese embassy has shown, there are strong opinions about how to best manage relations with Beijing - as well as what, precisely, constitutes a threat and what is an opportunity. The result is an uneasy balancing act in which caution and cooperation coexist, often uncomfortably.These security concerns are grounded in recent experience. In December, the Foreign Office disclosed it had been the target of a sustained cyber-attack two months earlier that was suspected to be the work of a Chinese group known as Storm 1849. This followed investigations into alleged espionage involving parliamentary researchers and repeated warnings from security agencies about technology transfer and data exposure in sensitive industries.Peter Frankopan is professor of global history at the University of Oxford. His most recent book is The Earth Transformed: an Untold History. Continue reading...

US president says tariffs on automobiles, lumber and pharmaceuticals will rise to 25%, accusing Seoul of not living up to a trade deal struck last yearDonald Trump has said he is raising tariffs on South Korean goods including automobiles, lumber and pharmaceuticals, accusing the country of not living up to a trade deal struck last year and briefly sending shares in Korean carmakers tumbling.In a post on social media, the US president said the tariffs paid on South Korean exports into America would rise from 15% to 25% because the Korean Legislature hasn't enacted our Historic Trade Agreement, which is their prerogative". Continue reading...

Joseph Rowntree Foundation finds problem is deeper and more damaging than at any point in the last 30 years'The UK's poorest families are getting poorer, with record numbers of people classed as in very deep poverty" - meaning their annual household incomes fail to cover the cost of food, energy bills and clothing, according to analysis.Although overall relative poverty levels have flatlined in recent years at about 21% of the population, life for those below the breadline has got materially worse as they try to subsist on incomes many thousands of pounds beneath the poverty threshold. Continue reading...

Respondents to King's Trust survey cited AI and a lack of work experience as reasons they might fail in lifeMore than seven in 10 teens and young adults in the UK say they wish they were not starting their careers in the current economic climate, according to new research from the King's Trust.The study also found that more than a quarter of people aged 16 to 25 feel they are going to fail in life, highlighting growing anxiety among those entering the labour market. Continue reading...

Latest BRC figures show year-on-year rate of increase was 3.9% in January, up from 3.3% the month beforeRetailers have blamed rising energy bills and the chancellor Rachel Reeves's hike in employers' national insurance contributions for a jump in food prices, as suppliers and supermarkets struggle to absorb higher costs.The British Retail Consortium (BRC), the trade body for retailers, said prices across all goods in shops rose by 1.5% in January compared with the same month last year, up from a 0.7% rise in December and higher than the 0.7% increase economists had been expecting. It is also above the three-month average of 0.9%. Continue reading...

Britain is losing more jobs than it creates owing to artificial intelligence, Morgan Stanley research suggests

Good transport links and the quietly booming nuclear sector are helping the Cheshire town to thrive

Tech could lose its social acceptance unless it makes people's lives better - and trade unions want an urgent conversationWho wouldn't want a robot to watch over your kids?" Elon Musk asked Davos delegates last week, as he looked forward with enthusiasm to a world with more robots than people".Not me, thanks: children need the human connection - the love - that gives life meaning. Continue reading...

Amid the tumult of the WEF in Davos this week, some investors are leading the way by ditching US government bondsThere is a way to file for divorce from Donald Trump and Europe needs to grab the opportunity.To the public it will look as if nothing has changed. But behind the scenes the EU and the UK could close the joint bank account and cut up the credit cards, or at least set in motion a form of financial separation that limits the power of a controlling former partner. Continue reading...

Conservative majority appears eager to hand president greater power - with one exception: the US central bankDonald Trump has tried his usual tactics when it comes to getting the US Federal Reserve to lower interest rates: bully when persuasion doesn't work, and then fire when bullying doesn't work.In an unprecedented assault on the central bank, the president has called the Fed chair, Jerome Powell, stupid" and threatened to fire him for not cutting interest rates as quickly as Trump would like. Most recently, the justice department instigated a criminal investigation against Powell for testimony he gave about renovations at the Fed's headquarters. Even so, the Fed has not budged. Continue reading...

Shift in relations and unpredictability of Donald Trump make it risky to store so much gold in the US', say expertsGermany is facing calls to withdraw its billions of euros' worth of gold from US vaults, spurred on by the shift in transatlantic relations and the unpredictability of Donald Trump.Germany holds the world's second biggest national gold reserves after the US, of which approximately 164bn (142bn) worth - 1,236 tonnes - is stored in New York. Continue reading...

Organizers demand ICE leave state and agency be investigated for constitutional violationsTens of thousands of Minnesotans marched in Minneapolis and otherwise participated in an economic blackout on Friday to protest against the Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) surge in the state.About 100 clergy members were arrested by police during the action, video footage showed. Continue reading...

Megan Greene says apparent end to the decline in wage growth could hinder fight against inflationThe Bank of England may not be able to lower interest rates as much as expected this year, due to strong UK pay growth and expected rate cuts in the US, one of its top policymakers has said.Megan Greene, a member of the Bank's monetary policy committee (MPC), which sets interest rates in the UK, said she was concerned that wages appeared to be growing strongly again this year and this could stop inflation from easing. Continue reading...

Well, maybe not all of us ...

Kristalina Georgieva says research suggests 60% of jobs in advanced economies will be affected, with many entry-level roles wiped outArtificial intelligence will be a tsunami hitting the labour market", with young people worst affected, the head of the International Monetary Fund warned the World Economic Forum on Friday.Kristalina Georgieva told delegates in Davos that the IMF's own research suggested there would be a big transformation of demand for skills, as the technology becomes increasingly widespread. Continue reading...

Sales volume rise of 0.4% in December confounds forecasts as new survey shows sharp rebound in consumer confidence

In today's newsletter: As global tensions rise, this year's Davos gathering reveals a world struggling to adapt to shifting power dynamics and the erosion of old certaintiesGood morning. The annual gathering of political and business leaders in Davos opened against a backdrop of war, trade threats and a rapidly fraying global order - with the World Economic Forum once again struggling to reconcile its talk of cooperation with the realities of great-power confrontation.Above all, one figure has dominated the week more than any theme or panel discussion - Donald Trump. He appears to have been determined to use the Alpine summit as a stage for his own vision of how the world should work.Davos | Volodymyr Zelenskyy has taken aim at Europe in a fiery speech at Davos, accusing leaders of being in Greenland mode" as they waited for leadership from Donald Trump on Ukraine and other geopolitical crises rather than taking action themselves. The day ended with news of trilateral talks to start on Friday in Abu Dhabi between the US, Russia and Ukraine.UK news | The UK government borrowed less than expected in December, official figures show, after record-breaking receipts, giving a boost to the chancellor.Daily Mail | Elizabeth Hurley has accused the publisher of the Daily Mail of bugging her windowsill as well as using information obtained from tapping her landline as she gave emotional evidence at the high court.Climate crisis | Human-caused global heating made the intense heatwave that affected much of Australia in early January five times more likely, new analysis suggests.Immigration | Prosecutors were stunned to learn that federal immigration authorities allowed a suspect in a $100m jewellery heist, believed to be the largest in US history, to self-deport to South America. Continue reading...

Rolling coverage of the World Economic Forum in Davos

Official figures better than expected after record-breaking receipts for the month of December

Tracking data from a chaotic year, from ICE detention and job growth to inflation and the president's popularityThe Trump administration has had an unprecedented first year. The Guardian has been hard at work tracking the social and political ramifications of Donald Trump's second term through words and pictures. But sometimes the story is best told through charts and graphs. Here are some of the vital data points that the Guardian has been tracking on immigration, the economy and public opinion.*** Continue reading...

This live blog is now closed. For the latest on Davos, read our coverage:

US president tells business and political leaders in Davos his country needs ownership to defend unsecured island'

As Mark Carney, Emmanuel Macron and Ursula von der Leyen decide to live in truth', what will it take for Starmer to call out Trump?Donald Trump has told the Davos economic forum without us, most countries would not even work", but for the first time in decades, many western leaders have come to the opposite conclusion: they will function better without the US.Individually and collectively, they have decided to live in truth" - the phrase used by the Czech dissident Vaclav Havel and referenced by the Canadian prime minister, Mark Carney, in his widely praised speech at Davos on Tuesday. They will no longer pretend the US is a reliable ally, or even that the old western alliance exists. Continue reading...

The global economic system doesn't even benefit its US and European creators any more - let alone indebted nations or emerging giantsDonald Trump represents everything that the Davos crowd hates - and it is unlikely they are any more well-disposed towards him after being forced to listen to more than an hour of the president's rambling speech today. He is a protectionist, not a free trader. He thinks the climate crisis is a hoax and is suspicious of multilateral organisations. He prefers power plays to dialogue and he doesn't have any time for the woke" capitalism that Davos has been keen to promote, with its focus on gender equality and ethical investment. The shindig's organisers, the World Economic Forum (WEF), had to agree to sideline those issues in order to secure Trump's appearance.For decades, anti-globalisation protesters have sought to shut down the WEF. Thanks to Trump's threat to take over Greenland, their prayers may soon be answered. In today's world, Davos is an irrelevance and it seems fitting that Trump should be on hand this week to deliver the coup de grace to the liberal international rules-based order that the WEF prides itself on upholding. Continue reading...

Their latest report makes no mention of Greenland, Venezuela, or even Trump. This is just a pretence that normality continues

Those born between 1965 and 1980 own an average of $1.455m in housing and land, KPMG report finds

Trump expected to face tough reception from European leaders in Davos over threat to seize Greenland

Bigger than forecast rise probably temporary but analysts rule out Bank of England interest rate cut in FebruaryInflation in the UK rose for the first time in five months to 3.4% in December, pushed up by higher air fares and tobacco prices.The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said the annual inflation rate increased from 3.2% in November after falling in October and flatlining in the previous three months. The figure overshot City economists's forecasts of a modest rise to 3.3%. Continue reading...

Sell-off hits US stocks in first trading day since president threatened tariffs against eight countriesStock markets fell on both sides of the Atlantic on Tuesday, with Wall Street suffering its worst day since October, as investor concerns persisted over the fallout from Donald Trump's push for US control of Greenland.The sell-off hit US stocks on the first day of trading in New York since Trump threatened new tariffs on eight European countries, after the market was closed for a public holiday on Monday. The S&P 500 closed down 2.1% while the Dow Jones finished down 1.8%. Continue reading...

Leaders of EU, France and Canada stake out positions on Greenland ahead of US president's speech to World Economic ForumThere's no diplomacy with Donald Trump: he's a T rex. You mate with him or he devours you." Debate at the World Economic Forum annual meetings high in the Swiss Alps is usually scrupulously polite, but as this year's gathering got under way in Davos on Tuesday, California's Democratic governor, Gavin Newsom, had this blunt advice for handling the week's star speaker.The US president was yet to arrive but throughout the blond wood congress centre the hottest topic among the global elite of business and politics - on and off conference stages - was Trump's intemperate attack on European allies, threatening punitive tariffs if they fail to let him annex Greenland. Continue reading...