Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news

PM says firms will continue to get economic support until they can operate as normal

The G7 needs to keep giving financial aid and other support if it wants to avoid ongoing disruption

Analysis: firms are adding to their payrolls, but the real test will come when the Covid furlough scheme endsOn one reading of the latest unemployment figures, the UK labour market is in pretty good shape. The number of people being added to payrolls is going up and so is the number of job vacancies. Annual earnings growth is up sharply to 4.7%.An alternative reading is that the jobless total is going up along with the redundancy rate, while the number of people employed is going down.Related: UK unemployment rises to 5.1% as Covid lockdown freezes economy Continue reading...

Government furlough scheme prevents higher increase in joblessness in December

David Malpass says delivery systems must be improved in poorer nations as world prepares for next crisisSerious capacity constraints on vaccination programmes pose the biggest threat to the ambitious goal that all 7 billion people across the globe be offered Covid-19 protection within a year, the World Bank’s president has said.In an interview with the Guardian, David Malpass said delivery systems in poor countries and the fact that so many vaccines were going to rich countries were more important factors than money in ensuring success. Continue reading...

The PM is plotting a more cautious course on Covid, but that means higher cost and more job lossesCoronavirus – latest updates

Party’s most conservative senator, from one of the poorest states, has advocated for a rise only to $11 an hour – but workers say it’s not enoughHopes that the US will finally increase the federal minimum wage for the first time in nearly 12 years face a seemingly unlikely opponent: a Democrat senator from one of the poorest states in the union.Joe Manchin of West Virginia, the state’s former governor and the Democrats’ most conservative senator, has long opposed his party’s progressive wing and is on record saying he does not support increasing the minimum wage from $7.25 to $15 an hour, the first increase since 2009. “I’m supportive of basically having something that’s responsible and reasonable,” he told the Hill. He has advocated for a rise to $11.Related: 'Hopefully it makes history': Fight for $15 closes in on mighty win for US workersIf you’ve never lived in poverty, you have no idea what it does to youZack Harold is a freelance writer and radio producer in Charleston, West Virginia. He is a regular contributor for West Virginia Public Broadcasting’s Inside Appalachia and formerly served as the Charleston Daily Mail’s entertainment editor and managing editor for WV Living, Wonderful West Virginia and WV Focus magazines Continue reading...

The long-running series in which readers answer other readers’ questions on subjects ranging from trivial flights of fancy to profound scientific and philosophical conceptsHow can a country’s economy apparently grow year on year without limit, and why is this thought to be desirable?

Consumer spending may boom once the crisis fades but that could power up prices, interest rates and a severe bear marketAndy Haldane caused quite a stir this month when he suggested the economy was like a coiled spring waiting to go off. As the Bank of England’s chief economist has discovered, it’s harder to be a Tigger than an Eeyore. Predictions of impending disaster tend to be forgotten even when they don’t come true. Much less slack is given to those predicting that things will turn out well.Haldane could well be proved right. Consumer and business confidence is on the rise and if – a big if, admittedly – the government continues to support the hardest-hit sectors appropriately as the economy is unshackled, it is quite possible there will be an explosion of pent-up demand.Inflation is when prices rise. Deflation is the opposite – price decreases over time – but inflation is far more common. Continue reading...

This bungling, populist government is basking in the reflected glory of the experts who created the Covid vaccinePhilip Stephens, the chief political commentator of the Financial Times, tells a wonderful story about how he was playing football in the playground at school – in those days playground football was with tennis balls – and a ball hit the Latin master as he was passing.The Latin master immediately clipped Stephens round the ears – which, these days, would no doubt have led to the master’s dismissal. Stephens protested: “It wasn’t me, sir.” To which the reply was: “Let this be a lesson to you, my boy. There is no justice in this world.”I have even heard wild talk of a snap election, although I cannot see why a prime minister with such a huge majority should want one Continue reading...

In Holyhead, traffic has fallen 50% as hauliers stymied by Brexit find their way from Ireland to France without entering the UKPerched on the shores of Anglesey, the island linked by road bridges to the north-west coast of Wales, Holyhead’s geography has given it a leading role in British-Irish trade since the early 19th century.About 50 miles directly across the Irish Sea from Dublin, a journey of just three-and-a-quarter hours by ferry, Holyhead was until December the second busiest roll-on roll-off port in the UK after Dover. About 450,000 trucks rumbled through each year on their way to Dublin, with cargoes of meat and agricultural produce, secondhand cars and items destined for the shelves of Irish supermarkets.I worry about the next generation. Where are these young people going to get jobs from? Continue reading...

Frightening retail sales figures mean the Treasury must instil more confidence in struggling firms and consumersRetail sales figures for January will give the Treasury a fright. A fall of 8% was much larger than the more modest 3% expected by City economists and reveals how shoppers, when confronted by a third lockdown, were reluctant to keep calm and carry on.There was a faint hope that after a disastrous Christmas period, and a year that ranked as the worst for consumer spending on record, we might see retailers start 2021 with a fresh set of wings. It was not to be.The Office for Budget Responsibility is the government’s independent forecaster, which gives its verdict on the outlook for growth and the public finances twice a year. Continue reading...

Boris Johnson’s dizzying list of policy changes is a way of keeping his party in office, not making British life betterThe news that the Conservatives intend to undo their own elaborate NHS reforms could be seen as yet another sign of how badly they’ve governed. It could also be taken as a reminder of how bafflingly long they have been in office, given their record. The original legislation setting out their reforms to the NHS was passed nine years and three general elections ago.During that time the Tories have reversed their policies, or significantly changed their message, in many other crucial areas: among them the role of the state, EU membership, the north-south divide, the relationship between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK, and the balance between economic growth and public safety during a pandemic. Sometimes since Boris Johnson became prime minister in 2019 he and his ministers have failed to keep to a consistent line for the duration of a sentence.Related: The Guardian view on Boris Johnson's role: laundering the Tory brand | EditorialAndy Beckett is a Guardian columnist Continue reading...

James Cleverly says 100% certainty is not possible ‘because viruses don’t work like that’

Sterling rises against dollar and euro and is best-performing G10 currency

Borrowing was highest for a January since modern records began

The Labour leader says Tory ideology made Britain vulnerable to the pandemic. Now he has to bring the public along with him

Everything about the UK tax system is upside down – we tax work, while relieving unearned gains. And the public knows itIn a stricken country in a state of suspended animation, everyone says build back better, but no one knows if we have the collective will. Standing on a burning platform with a sky-high debt mountain, public services crippled by austerity, Covid and Brexit, it’s not an obvious moment for optimism. But there’s a rumbling suggestion that this conservative country could be changing.Keir Starmer’s speech reached for that mood, citing William Beveridge’s 1942 report beckoning to a better postwar future. He might have looked to John Maynard Keynes in 1940, lifting political horizons in How to Pay for the War. He called for “courage” and “enough lucidity of mind in leaders … to explain to the public what is required” and “in a spirit of social justice to draw up a plan which uses a time of general sacrifice to move towards reducing inequalities”. And in 1945 people did find that “lucidity of mind”. In this deepest financial crisis for 300 years, with twice as many dead as those lost from the blitz and flying bombs, Starmer echoes those Kenynesian tones, warning “inequality is not only morally bankrupt, it’s economic stupidity too”.Related: Keir Starmer's post-Covid plan for Britain – the key pointsPolly Toynbee is a Guardian columnist Continue reading...

Exclusive: ex-Whitehall tsar questions Tories’ desire to safeguard workers’ rights amid legislation delays

Labour leader calls for ‘moral crusade’ in wake of Covid pandemic to deliver social justice and equalityKeir Starmer has argued that Labour must build “a strong partnership with businesses” if it is to create a more just and equal post-Covid society, announcing plans for a public saving scheme to boost investment in the recovery.Castigating the government for wanting to maintain existing inequalities after the pandemic, the Labour leader set out what he called a “moral crusade”, borrowing Harold Wilson’s phrase to set in place a national transformation equivalent to that seen after the second world war.Related: Keir Starmer's leadership needs an urgent course correction | Tom Kibasi Continue reading...

Profits fall 27% as pandemic also cuts appetite for new home, car and life insurance dealsPrice comparison website Moneysupermarket has reported a sharp slump in annual profits after coronavirus restrictions wiped out demand for travel insurance.The financial services platform, which helps customers compare deals, reported a 24% fall in pre-tax profits, to £87.8m, following “negligible” revenues from its TravelSupermarket site. Continue reading...

Hopes for lockdown easing and vaccine breakthrough bolster mood, survey of 1,000 firms shows

When Andrew Haldane claims post-Covid UK is ‘poised like a coiled spring’, he does no favours to either his reputation or the debate over the futureTo state the blindingly obvious, the chief economist of the Bank of England, Andrew Haldane, is an intelligent man. No boilerplate praise, this: his speeches on subjects as varied as how to reform economics and the importance of the voluntary sector have been model interventions – both serious and ever-so-slightly subversive. Yet when Mr Haldane writes a newspaper op-ed that claims the post-Covid economy is “poised like a coiled spring”, as he did last week, he risks looking not only silly but, worse, choking the debate over the future of the UK.

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news

Exclusive: Ángel Gurría says action on environmental crises must be defining focus of wealthy countries after Covid

Ángel Gurría reflects on time at helm as new generation leads institutions with power to influence governments

How and when to unwind some of emergency stimulus will be on agenda

Consumer prices index rose to 0.7% in January, says ONS

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news

Trade union body says Mathias Cormann would set back fight against poverty and the climate crisisThe TUC has urged the UK foreign secretary to reject the Australian candidate to lead the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), saying it would set back the fight against poverty and the climate crisis.Frances O’Grady, the head of the trade union body, said she was concerned that the UK was preparing to vote in favour of Mathias Cormann, the former Australian finance minister who has a reputation for defending Australia’s mining interests and opposing urgent action on climate change. Continue reading...

As Wall Street enjoys its hottest run in 17 years, economists debate the new president’s optionsIt’s fair to say that Wall Street usually takes little interest in debates between economists, even ones as distinguished as Larry Summers and Paul Krugman.But the debate between the two Keynesians over the merits of Joe Biden’s stimulus package matters at a time when global stock markets are on their hottest run for 17 years. The mood has changed completely since fearful investors were piling into cash a year ago. The way the markets look at it, successful Covid vaccines plus low interest rates plus higher US government spending equals rapid growth and higher corporate profits.Related: Central banks aren't what they used to be - and the better for it Continue reading...

The long-running series in which readers answer other readers’ questions on subjects ranging from trivial flights of fancy to profound scientific and philosophical conceptsHow can a country’s economy apparently grow year on year without limit, and why is this thought to be desirable?

Thinktank says additional support is needed to help UK face Brexit, Covid and global heatingBritain’s foremost economics thinktank has urged Rishi Sunak to use next month’s budget to announce a targeted extension of government support to tackle a “triple challenge” to the economy from Brexit, Covid and global heating.The Institute for Fiscal Studies said the chancellor needed to steer clear of raising taxes in response to record peacetime borrowing of about £400bn inflicted by the coronavirus pandemic and called on him instead to focus on supporting the UK’s economic recovery from lockdown. Continue reading...

Okonjo-Iweala is unanimous choice, becoming trade body’s first female and first African leader

FTSE 100 posts biggest daily gain for over a month as investors buoyed up by vaccine and US economy hopesThe pound has hit its highest level against the dollar for almost three years as global markets were buoyed up by hopes for a faster economic recovery from the coronavirus pandemic.Sterling rose by 0.5% to hit a 33-month high against the dollar on Monday, trading above $1.39 on the global currency markets for the first time since 2018, while also rising to a nine-month high against the euro of almost €1.15. Continue reading...

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news

Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, set to be named director general, joins as global trading system facing make-or-break momentEven for an economist, there are lots of very large numbers in the life of Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala. As the chair of Gavi, the vaccine alliance, she has overseen the annual immunisation of millions of children. When managing director of the World Bank, she oversaw $81bn (£58bn) worth of operations. In her stints in charge of Nigeria’s finances, she tackled Africa’s most populous country’s $30bn debt. And she has 1.5 million followers on Twitter.There are lots of smaller numbers too: the 20 non-profit organisations that have appointed Okonjo-Iweala to their advisory boards, the major banks and corporations she has advised, the 10 honorary degrees in addition to her own doctorate, 20 or so awards, dozens of major reports authored, and the books.Related: 'It can’t be business as usual': the Nigerian frontrunner to be next WTO head Continue reading...

Withdrawal of deputy head leaves two women and two men in running for the secretary general postThe race to lead the Organisation for Economic Cooperation & Development (OECD), one of the world’s most influential multilateral organisations, has narrowed after the deputy head of the organisation withdrew from the race.The exit of Ulrik Knudsen, who is a former Danish foreign minister, leaves four candidates for the secretary general post, including two women: the former Greek education secretary Anna Diamantopoulou and Cecilia Malmström, the Swedish EU trade commissioner who spent four years in Brexit talks with the UK. Continue reading...

Treasury select committee says doing so would help businesses and public understand pros and cons

Boris Johnson vowed that austerity, and the misery it inflicted, would not return after Covid. Labour must hold him to it

Epidemiology, psychology and sociology are at play in forecasting post-pandemic spendingThree times a week an update on new Covid-19 cases is published by the economics consultancy Pantheon. Vaccination rates are monitored by the Swiss bank UBS. The scientists advising the government are in regular contact with the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee – the body that sets interest rates.Richard Nixon may or may not have said “we are all Keynesians now” after the US broke its link with gold in 1971 but one thing is for sure: all economists are epidemiologists now. And there’s a downside and an upside to that. Continue reading...

A pandemic is a moral and economic minefield. How should governments weigh up the difficult choices – and are they getting it right?

The financial regulator’s latest report hints at a bleak prospect of an uneven post-virus recoveryIn recent years, the Financial Conduct Authority has started running major surveys to examine the public’s financial vulnerabilities. I’m a big fan of this from the regulator of our financial markets and firms – after all, the point of regulation is to improve people’s lives. So it’s good to see their latest Financial Lives report.The results are pretty bleak. You’ll have heard a lot about the extra saving going on during lockdown. People not being able to spend on holidays or restaurants has led to a staggering £125bn in extra savings. But this report crucially notes that not everyone is racking up the cash. Pre-Covid, 10.7 million of us were over-indebted or had low savings. That has now risen to 14.2 million.Torsten Bell is chief executive of the Resolution Foundation. Read more at resolutionfoundation.org Continue reading...

Analysis: The governor and chief economist say they expect a consumer boom this year, but others disagree. And the Bank has a record of being too optimisticConfidence is everything during a recovery. The question is, can Britons shake off their fears of infection and swagger back to work merely by looking in the mirror and telling themselves everything will be OK.At the Bank of England, some senior staff believe we are all about to do just that. Having looked into their crystal balls they predict that people who have saved their pennies during the pandemic – and many millions of workers and rich retired have done just that – will spend them when the nation is vaccinated.After the global financial crisis of 2008-09, it took five years for the UK to return to its pre-recession peak Continue reading...

Fast-food workers will walk out on Tuesday, hoping to push through a minimum-wage raise to benefit tens of millionsFear was the overwhelming emotion Alvin Major felt when, on a chilly November morning in 2012, he went on strike at the Brooklyn KFC where he worked.“Everybody was scared,” said Major. He may have been fearful, but what Major didn’t know was that he was about to make American history – an early leader in a labor movement that some historians now see as the most successful in the US in 50 years.I’m thrilled to announce that after working with leadership, we’ve secured a $15 minimum wage in the House’s COVID relief bill!

Italians optimistic as former ECB chief appoints mix of political and technocratic ministers to cabinetItaly’s new government, led by former European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi, will be sworn in on Saturday, ending weeks of political turmoil.Draghi, 73, announced his cabinet, which contains a mix of political and technocratic ministers, to president Sergio Mattarella on Friday.Related: Mario Draghi accepts mandate to form new Italian government Continue reading...

UK GDP shrank by 9.9% last year amid Covid-19 lockdowns, the worst since modern records began, and only beaten by the Great Frost of 1709

Bosses recount how they adapted to the lockdowns that pitched the UK economy into its worst performance in 300 yearsThe UK economy recorded the deepest economic contraction for 300 years in 2020 but it has avoided a double-dip recession during the second wave of Covid-19.The Guardian spoke to three company bosses about how they have adapted during lockdown and the pressures they face amid tougher restrictions at the start of this year. Continue reading...