Modern monetary theory offers a radical solution but the SNP may be too economically conservative to try itOpinion polls suggest Scotland would vote decisively for independence if another referendum were held now. Brexit, which Scots rejected by a thumping majority, and Covid-19 have changed the political dynamics since 2014. Put simply, Scotland would rather be inside the European Union with Nicola Sturgeon in charge than outside it with Boris Johnson calling the shots.That, at least, is how things currently stand. The economic problems an independent Scotland might face, which were crucial in the 55-45% vote to stick with the union six years ago, no longer carry as much weight. Continue reading...

The e-commerce retailer is looking for £920m and a huge valuation from its stock market debut – but there are reasons to be waryWe are invited to view the imminent arrival on the London stock market of The Hut Group, a Manchester-based e-commerce retailer, as an uplifting story of smart technology, clever marketing and endless growth. Here’s a company that dodges Amazon’s thunderbolts and attracts some of the world’s biggest consumer companies – the likes of Nestlé and Procter & Gamble – to its “end-to-end” platform.In a retail world dominated by shop closures and redundancies, The Hut Group sings a different tune. It claims the flotation will create more millionaires than any other listing of a British company, thanks to founder and chief executive Matthew Moulding’s long commitment to employee share ownership.The notion that big brand owners will flock to use The Hut Group’s e-commerce platform has yet to be tested properly Continue reading...

Eat out to help out saw busy restaurants and extra spending generally, but looming job losses could mean the whole nation tightening its beltBritain loves a bargain – even, as it turns out, during a global health emergency. Dismissed as a gimmick at first, the government’s eat out to help out scheme has proved hugely popular, dishing up more than 64 million discounted meals so far – equivalent to almost one for every person in the UK – since its launch a month ago.When the scheme finishes on Monday, chancellor Rishi Sunak, will be able to say that his policy successfully encouraged people back into restaurants, pubs and cafes between Mondays and Wednesdays in August, serving up a much-needed boost to the economy, and to the embattled hospitality sector in particular.We need to see what the plan is for protecting economic capacity over the coming period Continue reading...

Central banks risk triggering a cascade of defaults if they ever raise interest rates againWhy would you want to own anything when you can rent? It is a question being asked of cash-strapped millennials whenever they think about hitting the high street.John Lewis is the latest to tell young people they can have it all, or in most cases the bare necessities of modern life, if they would just learn to lease or rent whatever it is they need – a computer, sofa or desk chair. Don’t wait, says the department store, until you have the savings to pay for something outright (which may be never happen). Overcome those silly concerns about student loans, mounting credit card debts and a lack of savings by signing one lease or rent deal after another to get whatever you need.A life spent moving from rented home to rented home is generally not the joyful, freewheeling experience some older people think it is Continue reading...

The future of the north Devon yard bought last week by Harland & Wolff will depend partly on Boris Johnson fulfilling his promises about a string of naval contractsIt has been a lonely few months for Clifford Edwards. For the past 18 months he has been the sole employee at Appledore shipyard, near Barnstaple in north Devon.Soon, though, Edwards will be working alongside colleagues again and the spookily quiet 118-metre dry dock will once more reverberate to the sounds of men and women toiling in heavy industry.The prime minister assured us that he would do everything to assure a line of projects Continue reading...

Andrew Bailey insists ‘act big and act fast’ response effective and declares Bank still has ‘firepower’

Rolling live coverage of business, economics and financial markets as analysts contemplate end of ‘Abenomics’ and weaker dollar

Facing massive medical and funeral bills, families, some of whom are out of work, are seeking help through fundraisersOn the morning of 19 August, 74-year-old Miguel Ramos passed away while hospitalized for Covid-19 in Orlando, Florida. His wife, Leticia, also tested positive and is currently fighting to recover.Facing thousands of dollars in funeral and medical expenses, their daughter Nohemi Ramos started a GoFundMe to try to raise money to cover some of the costs.Related: ‘Coming here is a necessity’: demand for food aid soars in US amid job lossesWe would have been able to cover the costs if we were working, but since everyone got sick at home, no one was able to work and bills kept coming Continue reading...

Guardian analysis shows pace of job cuts on back of Covid-19 crisis remains the concern

Labour criticises ‘unconscionable’ plans as ministers would warn employees vulnerable to being sacked

Chair Jerome Powell says inflation will be allowed to rise above 2% to boost employmentShare prices on Wall Street rose to a fresh high after the head of the US central bank paved the way for years of more pro-growth policies by softening its approach to inflation.Jerome Powell, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, said he and his policymaking colleagues in Washington had unanimously agreed that inflation would be allowed to rise above its 2% target for some time in order to boost employment. Continue reading...

Rolling live coverage of business, economics and financial markets as central bank says it will tolerate inflation above 2%

Economists call for urgent help to prevent progress in poverty reduction being wiped out

Rolling live coverage of business, economics and financial markets as investors look ahead to virtual Jackson Hole central bank summit

Covid-19 puts paid to prime US angling venue but markets will monitor Andrew Bailey and co

Almost 3m jobs at risk because of uncertainty around Covid-19 travel restrictions

Nationwide the need for aid at food banks and pantries has surged amid worst unemployment rate in modern timesNeisha Davis cradles brown paper lunch bags in the crook of one arm, while holding on to Demitri, her wriggling baby son, in the other and keeping a careful eye on Naya, her four-year-old daughter, as she runs around the church car park with another little girl.It’s hectic but the free packed lunches have become a crucial part of their daily nutrition. So everyday at noon the family make the two-mile journey from Homewood, a low income predominantly African American Pittsburgh neighbourhood with no grocery stores, to the East End Community Ministry’s pop-up lunch stall in East Liberty.Hunger always impacts children hardestRelated: Making billions v making ends meet: how the pandemic has split the US economy in twoHonestly, I’ve broken down thinking about food. I’m here because I can’t let my pride stop me from doing what I need to do Continue reading...

Study finds UK has one of highest excess death rates with worst projected hit to economy

Drop in spending between end of March and early July caused emissions to fall by 4.3m tonnes, study says

Rolling live coverage of business, economics and financial markets as retailers expect accelerating job losses

In the short term, probably not, but with China weaponising the yuan stern challenges lie aheadThe recent sharp depreciation of the US dollar has led to concerns that it may lose its role as the main global reserve currency. After all, in addition to the Federal Reserve’s aggressive monetary easing – which threatens to debase the world’s key fiat currency even further – gold prices and inflation expectations have also been rising.But, to paraphrase Mark Twain, reports of the dollar’s early demise are greatly exaggerated. The greenback’s recent weakness is driven by shorter-term cyclical factors. In the long run, the situation is more complicated: the dollar has both strengths and weaknesses that may or may not undermine its global position over time.Related: Price of gold should not determine US monetary policy | Jeffrey Frankel Continue reading...

Economist who argued against neoliberalism and was one of those advising the Labour leadership on the development of policyJohn Weeks, who has died aged 79, was one of a group of prominent economists who, after the global financial crisis of 2008, began to push back against the dominant economic ideology of neoliberalism. Based in Britain after moving from the US in 1990, he took part in the Occupy movement against economic inequality and blogged on the Open Democracy and Social Europe websites. Latterly he was the driving force behind the Progressive Economy Forum (PEF), a body of academics and economists that was influential – although arguably not influential enough – in the development of Labour party policy during the Jeremy Corbyn years.As PEF coordinator, John established links between its economists and Labour’s shadow treasury office under the shadow chancellor, John McDonnell. Through various means, including the commissioning of papers on a universal basic income and shorter working hours, the setting up of a workshop with McDonnell’s office to consider Bank of England macro prudential policy, the staging of a series of public lectures and through informal meetings with McDonnell and members of his team, PEF was able to work up policies that appeared in the 2019 Labour manifesto. Continue reading...

Richard Murphy and Colin Hines stress the importance of the government spending money on creating jobs as well as on infrastructure to deal with the impact of coronavirus on people and the planetYour editorial (19 August) correctly points to the fact that the “money no problem” approach to tackling the short-term upheavals caused by coronavirus must now shift to tackling the climate crisis. If not, it risks the further alienation of young climate protesters, the exceptional Greta Thunberg and the countless environmental campaigners active over the past few decades. The catalyst for this is the need for new jobs in every community to counter the political, economic and personal trauma that will come in the wake of the coming tsunami of lost livelihoods across the country.An answer to the inevitable question of how to pay for such a transformation was provide by Larry Elliott’s observation (18 August) that the government’s money-printing programme of quantitative easing (QE) inflates the assets of the already rich, rather than helping rebuild the real economy. Given rising unemployment, it’s likely that QE is going to be required for some time to come. In that case, the government’s e-money printing presses must be used to help fund the employment of the millions of increased staff needed across all social sectors, from more care and health workers to teachers and police, while also funding investment in new climate-friendly infrastructure projects, such as making the UK’s 30m buildings carbon neutral and adapting existing infrastructure to deal with future heatwaves and flooding. This would be a serious start to healing the damage currently being inflicted on people as well as the planet.

Shares rise in Europe and Asia after Trump allows use of convalescent plasma

Rolling live coverage of business, economics and financial markets

Even if the only objective was low and stable inflation it would be a bad ideaThe price of gold reached an all-time high of $2,000 per ounce in early August. And while mainstream economists have treated gold as a sideshow since the world abandoned the gold standard in 1971, this recent price increase is a significant signal.Three explanations for the elevated gold price – related to US monetary policy, risk and investors’ growing desire for a safe-haven alternative to the dollar – have been offered. Each contains some truth.Related: Forget doom-laden headlines, the dollar has not gone into terminal decline | Barry Eichengreen Continue reading...

Study of world’s largest 1,200 companies reveals biggest quarterly drop since records began

Newly introduced tax expected to raise £500m, helping to reduce Britain’s huge Covid bill

The economy is in pretty good shape but the chancellor’s budget will need to sustain that recovery

The pandemic has forced the Tories into a change of direction even sharper than Edward Heath’s. But the crisis is not abatingBoris Johnson is shaping up to be a busted flush. In a remarkably short time he has lost the confidence of the country, Europe and, more important from his own narrow point of view, the Conservative party.Johnson is probably the worst British prime minister since Lord North, who is remembered for having lost the American colonies. These days the best thing about North is that he is remembered in the name of rather a good racehorse.Commentators keep calling this a recession. It is not: it is a hammer-blow to the economy administered by a panic-stricken government Continue reading...

Despite looking anything but fearless as Covid-19 first struck, US markets have regained lost ground and reached new highs. We list the reasons whyNothing like the recovery in the US stock market has ever been seen before. After the Wall Street Crash of 1929, the time it took for shares to regain their previous peak was measured in decades. After the global financial crisis of 2008, it was measured in years. This time it has taken less than five months – from a low on 23 March – for the S&P 500 to regain all its lost ground and hit a new high. At the time, not even the most bullish trader would have been bet on such a rapid recovery, but five factors explain the remarkable turnaround. Continue reading...

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news, as the Covid-19 pandemic drives UK government debt to record highs

August PMIs for services and manufacturing show retreat from July’s bouncebackThe eurozone’s recovery from its deepest economic downturn on record hit the brakes in August, as pent-up demand unleashed by the easing of coronavirus lockdowns dwindled, according to a closely watched survey.After many of the initial Covid-19 restrictions were relaxed, activity in the eurozone expanded in July at the fastest pace since mid-2018. But as infection rates have risen again in parts of the region, some earlier curbs have been reinstated. Continue reading...

August manufacturing and services surge follows return of business activity after lockdown

Reopening of high street stores resulted in dip in online shopping in July

Pandemic pushes national debt to 100.5% of GDP for first time since March 1961

But ONS finds four in five businesses stating that their risk of closing down is lowOne in eight members of the UK workforce, equating to more than three million people, were under furlough as the government’s wage subsidy scheme began to be phased out, the latest official data shows.The regular update on the economy from the Office for National Statistics found that 12% of workers were furloughed between late July and the middle of August, half the number two months earlier. Among the businesses trading 11% of the workforce was furloughed, rising to 71% for the 4% of firms that had not yet re-opened. Continue reading...

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news, as Federal Reserve voices doubt about the recovery and initial jobless claims rise

Increase of 135,000 from the previous week’s revised level of claims suggest that layoffs increased last weekThe number of people applying for unemployment benefits climbed back over 1 million last week as the coronavirus continued to take a devastating toll on the job market.The labor department announced on Friday that it received 1.1m claims for benefits last week, an increase of 135,000 from the previous week’s revised level and suggesting that layoffs increased last week. Continue reading...

Credit card data shows consumer spending shifting from central London to local areas as employees work from home

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news, as rising clothing, petrol and recreation prices push up the cost of living

There are millions unemployed, but plenty of work to do. How about a Pandemic Jobs Program that pulls in elements of the Green New Deal?In America, it seems, workers always come last. With more than 31 million out-of-work Americans now cut off from enhanced unemployment benefits, and with Washington’s failure to deliver relief, working families and the broader economy are set to fall off a cliff.Related: USPS crisis: postmaster general to suspend all changes until after electionThe federal government must play a bigger role in ensuring workers earn a living wage – especially in this crisisMoira Herbst is a writer based in New York Continue reading...

July’s official cost of living data was a one-off and the next move will be down sharply

UK government had been urged to scrap policy of annual increase, with passenger numbers falling

Soaring spending on Covid-19 compounds damage from depleted revenue in council tax and business rates

UK unemployment expected to double but chancellor argues against continued state support

Shares in S&P 500 are up 50% on Covid trough in late MarchWall Street’s rapid recovery from its Covid-19 slump has entered a new phase after a leading yardstick of American shares briefly hit a record high.In early trading in New York the S&P 500, which measures the stock market valuation of the 500 leading US quoted companies, rose to 3,394.82, exceeding its previous high by a single point. Continue reading...

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news, as high street chain M&S announces streamlining programme, and hefty job cuts

Treasury says figures for first three weeks of restaurant scheme are expected to rise

Central bank intervention reassured the financial system, but the real world outlook is bleak – just ask M&S workers in the UKIt is business as usual on Wall Street. Forget that the US economy shrank by almost a tenth between April and June. Forget that the official unemployment rate is 11%. The only news that matters is that the stock market has topped pre-crisis levels.That’s not only true in the US. The Financial Times index of global shares is almost back to where it was in the happy days when only a few health experts had heard of Covid-19. There is much talk – almost all of it the product of wishful thinking – about a V-shaped recovery from the pandemic. The one place it is certainly happening is in the world’s bourses.Related: The Tories are trying to stymie the disruption that the economy so badly needs | Christine Berry Continue reading...