Report warns that half of all UK consumer spending in 2020 will be delayed or lost completely

The repercussions of Covid-19 could yet be more deadly than the virus itself. We must act now to save lives

Salley Vickers is horrified at the thought of being incarcerated for a year because of her age, Bob Wolfson considers the big picture, and Ashley Seager says the young have proved themselves to be the packhorse heroes of the pandemicI read with horror (Coronavirus: what would a year of physical distancing mean for the UK?, 23 April) that I am likely to be incarcerated for a year because of my age (71). If this proposal were to be made law, I would immediately seek to crowdfund a legal challenge on the grounds that 1) there is no power in the Public Health Act to lock down people not reasonably believed to be infectious, and 2) that this would be disproportionate to the danger, and discriminatory, and therefore contrary to the human rights convention.Unless one suffers from a form of dementia, age does not impair one’s wits – over-70s with impaired health can be relied upon to take proper precautions. If, however, like me, they are healthy and in their right minds, they should be allowed their freedom like anyone else. There are no laws against dangerous sports, and it is many years since suicide was a criminal act. Continue reading...

My father, Wilfred Beckerman, who has died aged 94, was a renowned economist who combined a distinguished academic career, primarily as fellow of Balliol College, Oxford, with equally influential periods as an economic adviser for government. He was highly active (skiing into his 80s), a twinkly-eyed man with a good sense of humour whose love of learning and intellectual debate never left him.Born in London, the fifth of six children of poor Jewish immigrant parents, Moishe, a tailor, and Mattl, a seamstress, he left school at 15 but continued to study in his spare time. In 1943, aged 18, he joined the Royal Navy and quickly rose to officer rank. Having persuaded the LSE to let him briefly study there before joining up, despite not having the required academic qualifications, he was then eligible for the government’s scheme to allow ex-servicemen to complete their tertiary education free after the war had ended. Continue reading...

Governments unfortunate enough to be in power when a crisis strikes tend to get the blame

As 26 million Americans lose their jobs, the billionaire class has added $308bn to its wealthNever let a good crisis go to waste: as the coronavirus pandemic sweeps the world, America’s 1% have taken profitable advantage of the old saying.Some of the richest people in the US have been at the front of the queue as the government has handed out trillions of dollars to prop up an economy it shuttered amid the coronavirus pandemic. At the same time, the billionaire class has added $308bn to its wealth in four weeks - even as a record 26 million people lost their jobs.Related: Coronavirus has made Amazon a public utility – so we should treat it like one | Wendy Liu Continue reading...

Behavioural economics is being abused by politicians as a justification for flawed policies over the coronavirus outbreakI first came across “nudge” – the concept many consider to be the pinnacle of behavioural economics – at a thinktank seminar a little over 10 years ago. We were all handed a mock wine menu and asked what we’d order.This was supposed to illustrate that most price-aware diners order the second-cheapest bottle to avoid looking tight and that restaurateurs use this to nudge us towards the bottle with the highest markup. I remember thinking it an interesting insight, but that these sorts of nudges were nowhere near as likely to transform the world as their enthusiastic proponent claimed.A report on applying behavioural insights to domestic abuse included not one survivor's voice Continue reading...

While EU leaders argue over the need for coronabonds, the Federal Reserve and Congress are protecting their economyThe US model of capitalism is deeply flawed. It is highly unequal, and an inadequate welfare system means that millions of people are either living in poverty or constantly teetering on the edge. Citizens of the EU have it cushier, with more generous pensions, unemployment pay and in-work benefits.But as the events of the past month or so have shown with brutal clarity, in a crisis the American system works better. It is more flexible, more innovative and much faster to act. The Federal Reserve in Washington has acted more speedily and provided more stimulus than the European Central Bank in Frankfurt, but the contrast has been even more marked when it comes to fiscal policy – the tax and spending measures for which governments are responsible. Continue reading...

Despite the global recession triggered by coronavirus, the conditions exist to address inequality and raise living standardsThere are reasons for optimism as the UK economy and much of the rest of the world plunges into recession. That might seem like a bizarre statement when the recession is forecast to be the deepest in several centuries.Yet there are several arguments for remaining hopeful. Looking back, it is clear that previous pandemics have reduced inequality. And this one could, at least in the short term, be no exception. As the Nobel prize-winning economist Sir Angus Deaton has written: “It is an equal opportunity infection that does not pass over world leaders, senior politicians and celebrities.” Continue reading...

The shale industry made the US a major producer once again. But Covid-19 looks likely to ruin many prospectors

Retailers fear the coronavirus pandemic could permanently change consumer habits

By helping to solve a short-term funding crisis, ministers could signal their plans for a national recoveryThere is no reason why Britain’s universities should suffer permanent damage as a result of coronavirus. But, like many other institutions, they will need support in order to avoid it. The immediate issue is the present. The deaths from Covid-19 of people such as Ade Raymond, who was studying for a nursing degree at Middlesex university, will leave big gaps.On top of such personal losses comes the virus’s wider impact. While lectures and teaching continue online, the removal of access to libraries and laboratories, and, above all, to people, takes a toll – particularly on students in their final year, or on one-year courses. Following February’s strikes, some will feel they have lost half a year of their higher education. Those reliant on income from casual work (often in retail or catering), or tied into rental agreements for shared houses, risk increased debts and other hardships. Continue reading...

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news, as the Covid-19 lockdown hits spending in UK shops and confidence among German firms

From management of excess deaths to public outrage, 2019 document set out likely social and economic risks

Proposal follows slow take-up of bank lending by companies during Covid-19 crisis

Degrowthers are susceptible to caricature – but their ideas raise important questions about how, how much, and why we workAmid the misery and chaos caused by the coronavirus pandemic, there are some short-term consolations. The precipitous drop in road and air traffic has left the air cleaner and the skies clearer. For advocates of a Green New Deal (GND) – a vast, state-funded green infrastructure project, including a total transition to renewable energy and the construction of mass transit systems – there are reasons to be optimistic. As the severity of the unfolding global recession becomes clear – the IMF predicts a 3% global contraction – the GND looks like the best route to recovery.Related: Could Microsoft’s climate crisis ‘moonshot’ plan really work?Lola Seaton is assistant editor at New Left Review Continue reading...

As the UK faces what may be its worst ever recession, we begin a monthly series exploring the financial shock to business and living standards

Virtual summit debates rescue package to protect single market from slumpEU summits swap huddles and wine for muted mics and pop art

April’s PMI data suggests the country will not bounce back quickly after the coronavirus lockdownTake your pick for which number was more shocking. Was it the reading of 12.9 on the PMI survey of UK business activity in April, a figure that was many degrees worse than any recorded during the 2008 financial crash? Or was it the quadrupling of the government’s borrowing requirement to an astonishing £180bn over the next three months?The dire numbers go hand-in-hand, obviously, but here’s the really worrying part for government: the detail in the PMI data, where a number below 50 suggests contraction, offered no support to the hopeful idea that the recovery will be rapid and V-shaped. Instead, the employment index plunged, suggesting the Treasury’s various schemes to protect jobs are having only a limited impact. The much-feared “scarring” of the economy may be happening already.Related: Business Today: sign up for a morning shot of financial news Continue reading...

UK is suffering fastest and deepest slump in “possibly several centuries”, warns BoE policy maker Jan Vlieghe

For distancing reasons we are minimising the number of people on the campsite so only have room for those who have worked for us before, but we are keen to recruit local people and have been in touch with many, writes Andrew Chesson

Recession and unprecedented squeeze on incomes likely, says Bank of England policymaker

An additional 4.4 million Americans filed last week, as losses have wiped out all the job gains made since end of the last recession

Borrowing for just four months nears annual peak figure for 2009-10 financial crisis as coronavirus ravages economyThe government plans to borrow £225bn from bond market investors in just four months to fund the huge increase in public spending during the coronavirus pandemic.In an early indicator of the soaring financial costs of the crisis, the Treasury said its debt management office – which sells bonds to finance the government’s spending requirements – would offer investors £180bn worth of gilts to buy between May and July, on top of £45bn already planned for April. Continue reading...

Without government support, universities will struggle to provide the education people will need to rebuild their lives after Covid-19

Setback to ‘levelling up’ UK as London’s businesses predicted to recover faster after pandemic

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news, as falling clothes and fuel prices pull inflation down

UK taxes should be central to debate on paying for pandemic, suggests Richard Murphy

Joseph Stiglitz attacks Donald Trump, saying US on course for second Great Depression

Coronavirus lockdown causes fashion prices to decline for only second time since 1988

Business chiefs expect lengthy period before recovery as CDC chief warns of worse to come during US winter

Number of firms using job retention scheme rising with more mulling access, according to British Chamber of Commerce

Reluctance to visit reopened stores may prove trial run for rest of world after pandemicChina is giving away billions of yuan in shopping vouchers and offering other financial sweeteners to coax shellshocked consumers to start spending again.Although the country’s shopping malls and restaurants have largely reopened their former customers are proving reluctant to return as they worry about both their physical and economic health, against a backdrop of rising unemployment. Continue reading...

Producers forced to pay buyers to take barrels off their hands due to oversupply of crude amid coronavirus crisis

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news, as Covid-19 recession drives US crude oil into negative territory

According to one analysis, 5 million more Britons could be jobless by the end of May due to coronavirus

Issue would be easiest, fastest and least costly way to establish fund needed to rebuild more than just members’ economies

Meanwhile, chancellor’s Future Fund loans package is a welcome intervention

Plea follows Michael Gove saying pubs will be among last businesses to exit lockdown

Fears that system would be overwhelmed seem unfounded as launch goes smoothly

Rolling live coverage of business, economics and financial markets as British economic prospects slump

Perceived job security at lowest level ever in IHS Markit survey amid coronavirus crisis

Taxpayer-backed loans aimed at protecting innovative tech and life science firms

UK consumers could take £43bn hit as coronavirus crisis ravages UK economy

UK and Europe face growing inequality with layoffs hitting non-university educated

Freeze on transactions will cut sales by 38% with wide-ranging knock-on effects for economy, warns leading agencyMore than 520,000 UK home sales will be abandoned this year, after the government ordered a temporary freeze on the housing market last month because of the coronavirus outbreak, research shows.The property consultancy Knight Frank said the 38% drop in the number of house sales in 2020 would have a ripple effect across the property industry, hitting retailers, removal companies and even government coffers. Continue reading...

Internationalism is weak, diluted by the Covid-19 pandemic and the fight for hegemony between China and the USThe International Monetary Fund was eerily quiet this week. Normally, the IMF’s two buildings in Washington DC would have been full of finance ministers and central bank governors gathered together to discuss the state of the global economy. This year, the meeting was a virtual yet still an important one: the most significant since the financial crisis.Piecing together the story of the spring meetings of the IMF is a bit like peeling the skin off an onion, with the health emergency caused by the Covid-19 pandemic the outer layer. Since it was created at the 1944 Bretton Woods conference, the IMF has seen many crises, but nothing like this one. Never before has it needed advice from epidemiologists to do the predictions for its flagship publication: the World Economic Outlook.Related: Will coronavirus shock the global economy into long-term thinking?| Larry Elliott Continue reading...

With most Gatwick flights grounded and a looming economic downturn, residents of West Sussex town fear for their jobs

After the war, a new, more just social consensus emerged. The same must happen now‘When sorrows come, they come not single spies, but in battalions.” So it seems with the economy. The world economy was slowing down before the onset of the virus, with many analysts forecasting a recession. The British economy was being held back not only by the repercussions of that, but also by the impact on business confidence in general and investment in particular of the mere prospect of Brexit.Then came the classic Yes Minister compromise: we officially left the European Union on 31 January, but we had a stay of execution – remaining in it for another year, but forfeiting, in yet another act of needless self harm, the right to have any say in its governance.This latest development is not so much an economic crisis as the result of a deliberate, if reluctant, act of government Continue reading...

Even faced with another great depression, wealthier EU countries are resisting action on debt that could ultimately keep the union togetherEurope’s leaders are worried – and rightly so. The deadly impact of Covid-19 has resulted in a full-scale health crisis. Evidence of the economic consequences of trying to keep populations safe from coronavirus is starting to emerge. The political ramifications are only starting to be assessed – but they could be profound.The European Union has found itself in some tight spots over the years, but always found a way of muddling through. It survived the financial crisis and will cope with Brexit. But this time things are a lot more serious. Continue reading...