Economics | The Guardian

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news, as experts express concerns over Donald Trump’s Phase One trade deal with China

Accident and emergency makes the headlines. Meanwhile, under-reported services are collapsing through lack of fundingWill the secretary of state for health and social care get away with such barefaced shamelessness in his apparent plans to abolish waiting-time targets for A&E? Matt Hancock’s faintly plausible excuse is that the four-hour target is a perverse incentive to treat an ingrown toenail, at three hours and 50 minutes, ahead of heart attacks and road accident victims. But most A&Es triage efficiently, diverting minor ailments to GPs on site; their real crisis is 12-hour trolley waits for very ill people queuing for reduced numbers of hospital beds.A&Es are the thermometers of the NHS, and they reached boiling point long ago, embarrassing a government that has starved the service of funds as never before in its history. Hancock and the prime minister now regularly speak of the NHS receiving its “biggest cash boost” in history, a factoid that describes half a glass of water offered in a drought.There was a target to give every patient access within 48 hours … But that target ‘has been quietly dropped'Related: Prostate cancer deaths in UK hit record high of over 12,000 in 2017 Continue reading...

State media plays down agreement, in contrast to Donald Trump’s assertion it is the ‘biggest deal anyone has ever seen’Reaction in China to the US trade deal has been muted, with state media playing down news of the agreement signed in Washington and adopting a conciliatory tone.On Wednesday, Donald Trump and the Chinese vice-premier, Liu He, signed an initial pact that hits pause on more than two years of escalating trade tensions. China pledged to buy more US products while the US called off additional tariffs on Chinese goods, among other measures agreed between the two sides.Related: Trump signs China trade pact and boasts of 'the biggest deal ever seen' Continue reading...

US and China have signed a preliminary trade agreement that will see more American farm products and machinery sold to Chinese customers

President signs first phase of new agreement with China, hours after Democrats named team that will prosecute him in SenateDonald Trump has signed the first phase of a new trade agreement with China after two years of tension between the two superpowers that have rattled economies around the world.Related: Trump vaunts his China trade pact – but some say it’s too little, too late Continue reading...

CPI at 1.3% in December, putting pressure on Bank of England to cut interest ratesUK inflation has dropped to its lowest level for more than three years, fuelled by struggling retailers offering a wider range of discounts in December.Raising pressure on the Bank of England to cut interest rates, the annual rate on the consumer price index (CPI) dipped to 1.3% in December from 1.5% in November, the weakest since November 2016, according to the Office for National Statistics.Related: MPC may need more data before it considers cutting interest rates Continue reading...

Resolution Foundation says increasing reliance on credit cards and overdrafts is storing up problemsLow-income households have recorded a sharp rise in the use of potentially expensive consumer debt over the past decade and are now vulnerable to unexpected hard times, a thinktank has said.While the Resolution Foundation dismissed fears of a debt crisis as overblown, it said the increasing use of credit cards, store cards and overdrafts by those struggling to make ends meet should concern policymakers. Continue reading...

The French president must learn the lessons of the concession he has made on pension reform – or he risks the far right exploiting this battle at the next electionIn the end, Emmanuel Macron seems prepared to compromise. After six weeks of strikes involving rail employees, teachers, nurses, ballet dancers, lawyers, concierges, pilots and drivers on the Paris Métro, the French government has announced a major concession to unions: the withdrawal of a proposal to raise the country’s full benefits retirement age from 62 to 64. Mr Macron described the concession as a “constructive compromise”, following the longest mass walkout by transport workers since 1968.The strike is not over yet. But the French president, above all, does not want a galling defeat for the Élysée. Projecting an air of steely resolution, Mr Macron has made it his mission to challenge some of the cherished securities of France’s postwar economic settlement. His labour market reforms have made it easier to hire and fire workers. Benefits to the jobless have been cut, as unemployment has come down. More low-wage jobs have been created. Continue reading...

Stock markets are deluded to think the latest threat to the global economy has been removedFollowing the US assassination of Iranian al-Quds commander Qassem Suleimani and Iran’s initial retaliation against two Iraqi bases housing US troops, financial markets moved into risk-off mode: oil prices spiked by 10%, US and global equities dropped by a few percentage points and safe-haven bond yields fell. In short order, though, despite the continuing risks of a US-Iran conflict and the implications that it would have for markets, the view that both sides would eschew further escalation calmed investors and reversed these price movements, with equities even approaching new highs.That turnabout reflects two assumptions. First, markets are banking on the fact that neither Iran nor the US wants a full-scale war, which would threaten both the Iranian regime and Donald Trump’s re-election prospects. Second, investors seem to believe that the economic impact of a conflict would be modest. After all, oil’s importance as an input in production and consumption has fallen sharply since past oil-shock episodes, such as the 1973 Yom Kippur war, Iran’s 1979 Islamic revolution and Iraq’s 1990 invasion of Kuwait. Moreover, the US itself is now a major energy producer, inflation expectations are much lower than in past decades, and there is little risk of central banks raising interest rates following an oil-price shock.Related: Crisis for Iran may present an opportunity for Washington Continue reading...

Those who set the central bank’s monetary policy should reveal how they cast their ballotsThe European Central Bank is undergoing a changing of the guard: a new president, a new chief economist, and two new executive board members. And the ECB’s new leadership is facing a contentious year in 2020.For starters, former ECB president Mario Draghi’s last policy meeting was marked by disputes over quantitative easing and the president’s role in decision-making, underscoring disagreement within the governing council (comprising the executive board and national central bank governors) about monetary strategy. Should the ECB retain its point target for inflation but make that target symmetrical, in contrast to the present “below but close to 2%”? Or should it abandon all hope of coming close to 2% and settle for 1.5%? Continue reading...

Administration drops charges as the two superpowers move closer to a trade dealThe Trump administration has withdrawn its designation of China as currency manipulator, as the two economic superpowers move closer to a trade deal.The decision to drop the designation comes ahead of the announcement of a trade deal between the two sides, expected on Wednesday. The trade dispute has rocked US manufacturing and caused an economic slowdown in China. Continue reading...

Bank of England panel meets this month after weak economic figures for November

Pressure on Bank of England for interest rate cut increases after figures for November

New Economics Foundation calls for £50bn to reboot economy on greener footingThe government fightback against the next recession should include pumping as much as £50bn into green projects, in a move that would help reboot the economy and tackle the climate emergency, according to a left-leaning thinktank.Against a backdrop of concern among economists that Britain is ill-equipped to combat another downturn on the scale of the 2008 financial crisis, the New Economics Foundation thinktank said a green plan to beat a future slump was required. Continue reading...

Firms says a buyer must be found within days, with 1,000 jobs at riskThe department store chain Beales is on the brink of collapse and must find a buyer within days, with about 1,000 jobs at risk if the historic retailer does not complete a rescue deal.Beales, which began trading in Bournemouth in 1881, has filed notice of its intention to appoint administrators, as the retailer considers its options while seeking to complete a sale process begun last month. Continue reading...

Balance tilts towards cutting 0.75% rate as latest member of Bank of England’s panel speaksMomentum towards an interest cut is growing after a third member of the Bank of England’s rate-setting committee signalled that the British economy could require support from lower borrowing costs within months.Gertjan Vlieghe, an independent member of Threadneedle Street’s nine-member monetary policy committee (MPC), said on Sunday he would vote for a cut in rates later this month from 0.75% – if key barometers of economic strength fail to reveal a bounce straight after the December general election.Related: Bank of England governor hints at interest rate cut Continue reading...

The Tories need to satisfy their new northern voters fast. Not easy given the economic problems are structuralIn politics, the year just gone will be remembered for a number of reasons. It recorded a change of prime minister, a spell when the executive lost control of the parliamentary agenda, and a general election. One thing it won’t be remembered for is its budget: 2019 was the first year since the Napoleonic wars that there was no big day out for the chancellor of the exchequer.By the time Sajid Javid stands up in the House of Commons on 11 March it will have been more than 15 months since Philip Hammond delivered the last budget. For those who can’t remember – most people, in all likelihood – Hammond’s main announcement was extra money for the NHS.Related: The Tories need to turn on the spending taps in the north now | Larry Elliott Continue reading...

Brexit is a Tory invention and pro-Europeans must still fight our EU exileIn less than three weeks, Britain leaves the EU. Those vast marches, the crowded public meetings, the indefatigable Remain campaigners, the great speeches, the parliamentary wheeler-dealing and principled resignations were all for nothing. The “get Brexit done” Tories, exploiting the least electable Labour leader ever, won the election and were handed an 80-seat majority. The die is cast.For the political class, the issue has become toxic. Boris Johnson wants Brexit expunged from the lexicon so that the new normal is for Britain to be wholly outside the EU. Labour, flattened by its epic defeat, is agreed that to be pro-EU is political death. Remain Britain – half the population – has no champion.Britain is too exposed, too economically and militarily weak and too European to have an independent foreign policyRelated: Brexit weekly briefing: UK counts down to 31 January departure Continue reading...

If the PM were the one nation Tory he claims to be, he would – and should – choose to keep Britain aligned with the EUI have occasionally referred over the years to a parody of an editorial which a group of us at the Financial Times once concocted on a slow news day. It began something like this: “While in many ways we were against the Marxist manifesto on which the opposition campaigned, now that they have been elected the important thing is to make their programme work.”Well, there has been no danger of any newspaper having to welcome a Corbyn government in such tones. However, an up-to-date version of that editorial might read as follows: “While we thought, and still think, that the new government’s plan to leave the European Union is bordering on the insane, the important thing now is to make it work.”Let us hope the optimists are right, and that Johnson has moved on from wanting to prorogue parliament in order to crash out Continue reading...

While a cessation in hostilities is welcome, businesses have a lot of ground to make up, and few expect any further progressThe trade war with China is over; long live the trade war. That is the message from Donald Trump as the US president promotes a pact with Beijing that has both settled the frayed nerves of traders across the world’s financial markets and put those same traders on notice that the battle will continue for years to come.This week the White House is expected to publish details of a first- phase deal that cuts the import tariffs from 15% to 7.5% on more than $100bn of Chinese imports as soon as the agreement is implemented. The deal is expected to be signed on Wednesday, although Trump said on Friday it might be “shortly thereafter”.There’s been a lot of disruption and pain, and there hasn’t been a lot of progress on the most important issues Continue reading...

The president’s agreement with China is based on a misunderstanding of the corporate mindset. It’s time to invest in ourselvesTrump’s “phase one” agreement with China, to be signed on Wednesday, is intended partly to slow China’s move into new technologies like electric cars by protecting the intellectual property of American corporations.Which lends a certain irony to Tesla’s first Model 3 electric sedans now coming off assembly lines at the firm’s new multibillion-dollar plant in Shanghai.Related: Tesla delivers first China-made cars from $5bn Shanghai factoryRobert Reich is a Guardian US columnist. His next book, The System: Who Rigged It, How We Fix It, will be out in March Continue reading...

Unemployment rate holds at 3.5% for the second straight month but figures suggest a lingering weakness in manufacturingUS employers added 145,000 jobs in December, capping a record 10 years of jobs growth as the unemployment rate held at 3.5% for the second straight month, prolonging a half-century low.Hiring slipped after robust gains of 256,000 in November that were caused in part by the one-off end of a strike at General Motors.Related: Central banks are now the markets' best friends | Mohamed El-Erian Continue reading...

US non-farm payrolls have come in lower than expected at 145k for December, while annual wage growth missed forecasts at 2.9%3.06pm GMT2.53pm GMTAnd in lighter news, the co-founder of digital bank Monzo has quit to pursue an alternative career: farming alpacas in Northumberland.For the next few weeks and months I’m going to enjoy some time with Debbie at our wonderful farm in Northumberland.You’ll find me doing the feed rounds, hosting alpaca walk ’n’ talks and driving my tractor (a Massey Ferguson 390T if you like that sort of thing - otherwise it’s big and red!).2.35pm GMTEven poor job and wage growth figures couldn’t hold back US stocks, resulting in all three major indices hitting fresh record highs at the open.The Dow has hit 28,988.01 and we’re still waiting for it to rise above 29,000 for the first time.2.21pm GMTThe proof is in the chart: here you can see how US annual wage growth has held up above 3% between summer 2018 and November 2019.2.03pm GMTThe FT (£) caught on to a notable statistic: this first time that US wage growth has dropped below 3% since July 2018.US wage growth slips below 3% for first time since 2018 https://t.co/YJXyLNmEHh1.56pm GMTFor those of you who saw the earlier tweet, it’s now been revised. (I’ve deleted the previous version in the blog to avoid confusion...)Whoops, got a tweet exactly backwards. Deleting it and tweeting a screenshot to show my shame.

Congo-Brazzaville and Chad among hardest hit as campaigners warn spiralling repayments could trigger disasterPoorer countries are cutting public spending in response to a “growing debt crisis”, campaigners have warned.Debt in some countries has trebled according to new figures that calculate debt reimbursements, and their impact on government expenditure, in 60 countries.Related: Debt in developing economies rises to record $55tn Continue reading...

When the markets dip, the banks step in to help with stimulus. Such action may prove counter-productiveAfter a year that involved one of the biggest U-turns in recent monetary-policy history, central banks are hoping for peace and quiet in 2020. This is particularly true for the European Central Bank and the US Federal Reserve, the world’s two most powerful monetary institutions. But the realisation of peace and quiet is increasingly out of their direct control; and their hopes would easily be dashed if markets were to succumb to any number of medium-term uncertainties, many of which extend well beyond economics and finance to the realms of geopolitics, institutions and domestic social and political conditions.Just over a year ago, the ECB and the Fed were on the path of gradually reducing their massively expanded balance sheets and the Fed was increasing interest rates from levels first adopted in the midst of the global financial crisis. Both institutions were attempting to normalise their monetary policies after years of relying on ultra-low or negative interest rates and large-scale asset purchases. The Fed had raised interest rates four times in 2018, signalled further increases for 2019 and set the unwinding of its balance sheet on “autopilot”. And the ECB had ended its balance-sheet expansion and begun to steer away from further stimulus.Related: We must tackle global energy inequality before it’s too late Continue reading...

World’s central banks running out of options to stimulate economies – Mark CarneyMark Carney has dropped a hint that interest rates could be cut soon to boost the British economy, while warning that the Bank of England is running low on ways to combat recessions.In one of his final speeches before he departs Threadneedle Street in March, Carney said the economy had been sluggish in recent months and that inflation was below the Bank’s 2% target set by the government.Related: Pound slides as Bank of England's Mark Carney drops rate cut hint - business live Continue reading...

Current debt wave is largest, fastest and most broad-based since 1970s, say economistsThe World Bank has highlighted the risk of a fresh global debt crisis after warning of the biggest buildup in borrowing in the past 50 years.In its half-yearly Global Economic Prospects (GEP), the Washington-based organisation said of the four waves of debt accumulation since the 1970s, the latest was the largest, fastest and most broad-based. Continue reading...

Rumors of Middle East war used to inevitably lead to soaring gas prices but fracking revolution has changed the market landscapeFor many older Americans the thought of war in the Middle East will trigger memories of soaring gas prices and long lines at the pumps. But as US relations with Iran sink to a new low there is, as yet, no sign of panic.Related: By killing Qassem Suleimani, Trump has achieved the impossible: uniting Iran | Dina EsfandiaryRelated: Iran threatens to hit US bases with medium- and long-range missiles Continue reading...

Fears grow that Donald Trump will now set his sights on the EU and the UKThe gap between US imports and exports shrank to its lowest level in three years in November following a 15% decline in the country’s annual trade deficit with China.A boost to US exports also improved the trade balance, fuelling concerns that Donald Trump will expand his campaign to squeeze the US trade deficit, which has so far focused on China, to include the EU and the UK. Continue reading...

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news, including a tale of two carmakers

Kristalina Georgieva calls for rethink of economic policies to better help those left behindRaising income tax on the wealthy will help close the growing gap between rich and poor and can be done without harming growth, the head of the International Monetary Fund has said.Kristalina Georgieva, the IMF’s managing director, said higher marginal tax rates for the better off were needed as part of a policy rethink to tackle inequality.What is the IMF? Continue reading...

Stephanie Kelton says Australia could ‘absolutely’ benefit from a program similar to the Green New DealAustralia’s unprecedented bushfires are a wake-up call to the world about the importance of tackling climate change, Bernie Sanders’ economic adviser said, and the country should consider implementing a green new deal to transition to a low carbon economy.Stephanie Kelton said Australia could benefit from an ambitious program of spending, similar to the one proposed by Sanders and others that aims to transform the US economy and help keep global heating below 1.5C.Related: 'This is war': actor Yael Stone gives up US green card and will now live in Australia to fight climate changeRelated: Should fossil fuels pay for Australia's new bushfire reality? It is the industry most responsible | Amanda Cahill Continue reading...

Chancellor promises to tackle regional imbalances by reforming how Treasury allocates fundsSajid Javid has pledged to use his first budget to kickstart a decade of renewal for the economy after announcing 11 March as the date for the delayed set-piece event.The chancellor said his package would focus on unleashing Britain’s potential after the country’s departure from the EU at the end of this month. Continue reading...

There should be a worldwide tax on emissions backed by help for developing countries to cut CO2While denizens of the world’s wealthiest economies debate the fate and fortune of the middle class, more than 800 million people worldwide have no access to electricity. And more than 2 billion have no clean cooking facilities, forcing them to use toxic alternatives such as animal waste as their main cooking fuel. Furthermore, per capita carbon dioxide emissions in Europe and the US are still vastly higher than in China and India. What right do Americans, in particular, have to complain as China increases production in smokestack industries to counter the economic slowdown caused by its trade war with the US? To many in Asia, the inward-looking debate in the west often seems both tone deaf and beside the point.Even if Europe and the US deliberately stall their capitalist growth engines – as some of the more radical policy proposals might do if implemented – it would not be nearly enough to contain global warming if emerging economies stay on their current consumption growth trajectory.Related: In 2020 the UK must seize the chance to lead the world on the climate emergency | Danny Sriskandarajah Continue reading...

We need less glorification of power and money, especially from overseas buyers, and more thought given to the wellbeing of citizensThe Conservative party manifesto promised that when the party was in power it would charge foreign buyers of homes in England an extra 3% on the purchase price in stamp duty. Such levies have been used in Canada, Singapore and Australia to tackle housing crises. However, no mention was made of the charge in the Queen’s speech. If it does not pop up in the budget the Conservatives would have missed a chance to show they understand how voters feel crowded out of the housing market while wealthy overseas buyers are crowded in.Estate agents say the proportion of homes in England and Wales let by overseas-based landlords rose to 11% during the first 10 months of 2019, the first year-on-year increase since 2010. Nearly one in five of London’s homes are rented out by people not based in the UK. The trend is not just visible in the capital. The east of England recorded the biggest jumps in the number of overseas landlords. People say they are being priced out of living in Manchester because of foreign cash. Continue reading...

Britain will be seeking to reboot productivity and redefine its place in a rapidly-changing worldAt the outset of the 2020s, the UK economy embarks on a new decade with little momentum. Growth has stalled, not least because Brexit uncertainty and a slowdown in the global economy has served as a handbrake on business investment. Meanwhile, consumers have begun tightening their belts and the job market boom of the past decade has petered out.For at least the duration of 2020 another groundhog year awaits thanks to the ongoing Brexit saga, despite the promise Boris Johnson made before the election. Continue reading...

Trading has been buoyant through recent turbulence, but tensions in Iran – or a rise in the base rate – might change thatSo much for the idea that bull markets in shares die of old age. This theory has been widely touted for at least the past four years and, 12 months ago, it seemed as if the naysayers were on to something. Global share prices, as measured by the broad MSCI World index, fell 3% in 2018, with much of the blame pinned on the brewing China-US trade war. But then came 2019: a surge of 24% in the same index.Life doesn’t seem quite as nice if you gaze solely at the FTSE 100 index – a fall of 12.5% in 2018 and a rebound of 12% in 2019. Still, last year was the best performance in three years for the London market’s blue chip index. Death by old age did not occur.A change in the interest-rate weather is the most common cause of a turn in stock markets Continue reading...

Warnings from the IMF and World Bank have been dismissed. But even if they are wrong, a demographic crisis loomsThe warning signs are clear. Debt is rising on every continent and especially in the business sector, which has spent the past decade ramping up its borrowing to previously unheard-of levels.Last October, the International Monetary Fund said that almost 40% of the corporate debt in eight leading countries – the US, China, Japan, Germany, Britain, France, Italy and Spain – would become so expensive during a recession that it would be impossible to service. In other words, tens of thousands of businesses, employing millions of people, would have gambled with high levels of borrowing and lost, making themselves insolvent.Without higher interest rates, everyone can keep merrily borrowing Continue reading...

Borrowers repay £100m in November, reflecting falling demand for consumer lendingUK consumers have made net repayments on their credit cards for the first time in almost seven years, as households across the country rein spending in and rebuild their finances after a boom in borrowing.The Bank of England reported the first monthly fall in credit card debts since July 2013, after borrowers repaid around £100m in November to reflect fading demand for consumer credit.Related: UK retirees' spending rockets as younger people spend less Continue reading...

Average price in December was £215,282, with London weakest performer, says NationwideHouse prices shrugged off Brexit uncertainty to end 2019 1.4% higher than at the start of the year, according to Nationwide building society.After 10 stagnant months, prices rose strongly in November and December to record the modest annual increase. The average UK house price in December was £215,282, Nationwide said. Property values edged up by 0.1% month on month. Continue reading...

Barriers to older people shopping and working holds economy back, say researchersSpending sprees by retirees are adding billions to the UK economy, researchers have found, while spending by younger people is falling.But although some pensioners are indulging themselves, barriers including inaccessible high streets, poorly designed products and age-discriminatory attitudes mean people aged 75 and over are not spending their wealth. Continue reading...

British Chambers of Commerce report says long-term uncertainty is impeding growthThe UK economy ended 2019 in stagnation, under pressure from long-term uncertainty, mounting business costs and a global economic slowdown, according to a business survey.The British Chambers of Commerce’s (BCC) latest quarterly economic snapshot, based on a poll of 6,500 firms across the country in November, painted a gloomy picture of the economy at the end of the last decade. Continue reading...

People’s Bank of China allows commercial banks to hold less capital in reserveChina’s central bank has acted to pump more liquidity into the country’s economy in an attempt to prevent growth slowing in 2020.The People’s Bank of China is allowing commercial banks to hold less capital in reserve, freeing up about 800bn yuan (£87bn) in new funds for loans. It will cut China’s banks’ reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 50 basis points, to 12.5%, from 6 January. Continue reading...

Investors expect a strong year but the presidential race and trade wars could spring nasty surprises

Prospect of agreement lifts stock markets but experts question impact on long-running tensionsDonald Trump has said he will sign the first phase of a long-awaited trade deal with China on 15 January, in a move that de-escalates the tariff war between the world’s two biggest economies.In a tweet on Tuesday, the US president said “high-level representatives of China” would attend an official ceremony at the White House, adding he would also be travelling to Beijing for talks on the second phase of the deal.I will be signing our very large and comprehensive Phase One Trade Deal with China on January 15. The ceremony will take place at the White House. High level representatives of China will be present. At a later date I will be going to Beijing where talks will begin on Phase Two!Related: White House expecting agreement with China 'within next week or so' Continue reading...

Employees over 25 will receive a 6.2% pay rise equating to £930 a year for full-time workerAlmost 3 million workers in Britain are to receive a pay rise of more than four times the rate of inflation from April, after the government said it would increase the official minimum wage.In an announcement designed to woo low-paid workers in the immediate aftermath of Boris Johnson’s election victory earlier this month, the government said the “national living wage” for over-25s would increase from £8.21 an hour to £8.72 from the start of April. Continue reading...

From Syriza’s betrayal to the normalisation of austerity across Europe, it’s been a series of harsh lessons for progressive forcesThe financial crisis defined the European decade. It was the child of neoliberal policies, sketched by economists like Milton Friedman and rolled out by leaders like Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher in the 1980s. A long wave of deregulation eventually gave rise to a financial tsunami, which put the system on the verge of collapse. In a few weeks during the autumn of 2008, money flows froze, paralysing trade and investment internationally, which trickled down to erode workers’ wages and employment conditions. The unfolding of events comforted the left’s ideological worldview. But it’s clear as day that the left’s politics did not prevail.In the first half of the 2010s, the tide was rising for progressive forces. The victory of Syriza in Greece, the surge of Podemos in Spain and the presidential campaign of Jean-Luc Mélenchon in France made it possible to believe that the future belonged to the left.Related: How a decade of disillusion gave way to people power | Rebecca SolnitRelated: This was the decade the US’s self-serving myths fell apart | Aziz Rana Continue reading...

Trade adviser Peter Navarro suggests little more than translation of text is neededThe White House has signalled that a trade agreement with China could come within the next week, amid speculation that a delegation from Beijing will travel to the US this weekend to sign a deal.Peter Navarro, the White House’s trade adviser, said he expected a deal could be signed “within the next week or so”. Speaking on Fox News, he indicated that little more than translation of the final text stood in the way of a breakthrough in the bitter dispute.Related: How financial markets turned upside down in 2019 Continue reading...

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news

FSB survey, taken before general election, shows few exporters expecting a pick-upAfter a year dogged by Brexit deadlock, political uncertainty and slow growth, optimism among small UK firms has slumped to an eight-year low.The Federation of Small Businesses’s confidence gauge fell in October-December for the sixth quarter in a row. Managers at firms across the UK reported worries about the domestic economy and pessimism about opportunities overseas. Continue reading...