by Kalyeena Makortoff Banking correspondent on (#63P01)
Chancellor may lift EU-era restriction in hope of making UK more attractive to financial sectorThe focus is back on banker pay after it emerged that the chancellor, Kwasi Kwarteng, is considering scrapping the City bonus cap as part of the government’s wider pro-growth agenda.What is the banker bonus cap? Continue reading...
by Kalyeena Makortoff and Julia Kollewe on (#63N84)
Chancellor reportedly plans to lift the EU-imposed banker bonus cap as part of post-Brexit reforms; John Lewis says ‘uniquely uncertain’ outlook puts staff bonuses at riskBritain’s competition watchdog has decided to carry out an in-depth investigation into Microsoft’s $69bn purchase of the Call of Duty maker Activision Blizzard after the US tech giant failed to offer remedies to allay competition concerns.The Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) reiterated its warning that:it is or may be the case that this merger may be expected to result in a substantial lessening of competition within a market or markets in the United Kingdom. Continue reading...
The new chancellor is trying to wrongfoot Labour. That’s an easier game than living up to his pledgesEver since he was a boy, Kwasi Kwarteng has shown rare skill in wrongfooting opponents. At an interview for a place at Cambridge University, the Etonian heard the tutor confess that this was his first time interviewing entrance candidates. “Don’t worry, sir,” beamed Master Kwarteng. “You did fine.” The cheek paid off. He got in.After only one week as chancellor, he is now trying a similar strategy against the Labour opposition. In his sights is what he dubs “the same old economic managerialism”, as practised by the Treasury and the Bank of England. While praising his new department as an excellent finance ministry, good at keeping a lid on the deficit, he has instructed staff that their entire focus must “be on growth”. Continue reading...
Inflation eases because of a fall in petrol prices while food prices rise at fastest rate since mid-2008, driven by milk, cheese and eggsJames Smith, developed markets economist at ING, has looked at core inflation in more detail.Headline inflation will rise a little further having eased back below 10% in August, and it’s likely to stay around 11% into early next year before falling back more dramatically. However, the Bank of England is watching wage growth more closely, as the hawks worry that worker shortages could lead to core inflation staying more persistently above target.With the government due to cap the average household energy bill at £2,500, up from around £2,000 now, we expect a peak in the region of 11% in October. That’s compared to 16% in January which is what we’d forecasted before the support was announced. Continue reading...
Businesses may have to wait until November, although package could still be activated next monthBritish businesses have been warned by government officials that they will have to wait longer than households for financial support with their energy bills amid delays in launching the £150bn scheme, according to reports.Company bosses are increasingly worried about the prospect of delays to the arrival of support because fixed energy contracts come to an end in October for hundreds of thousands of firms. Continue reading...
by Larry Elliott and Richard Partington on (#63KSM)
Bank holiday for state funeral could send productivity plummeting at a time when country is struggling for growthBritain’s fragile economy was already teetering on the edge of recession even before the death of Queen Elizabeth II last week. That prospect now looms a lot larger, as businesses cancel events amid the period of national mourning culminating in the bank holiday for the late monarch’s funeral.Economists say high street shops closing their doors or operating reduced hours on Monday, alongside the loss of a full working day, will lead to a sharp fall in output at a time when Britain is struggling for growth momentum amid the cost of living crisis. Continue reading...
Inflation slowed for the second consecutive month as energy costs fallPrices in the US remained stubbornly high in August even as the overall pace of inflation slowed for the second consecutive month. The news sent US stock markets into a tailspin, with the Dow Jones index losing nearly 1,300 points.The Consumer Price Index (CPI), the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ monthly cost of living survey, found prices were 8.3% higher last month compared with August last year. The figure was down from an annual rate of 8.5% recorded in July and 9.1% in June, the highest rate in four decades. Continue reading...
The new chancellor is reported to have told Treasury staff there was a need to ‘do things differently under fresh leadership’. This live blog is now closedAt the lobby briefing yesterday Downing Street admitted that Liz Truss had not completed her government reshuffle. New appointments were suspended following the death of the Queen.According to an analysis by Arj Singh for the i, 55 posts remain unfilled. Singh says that, to fill all the posts that Boris Johnson had in his government, Truss will need to appoint 21 junior ministers in the Commons, nine Commons whips and 25 Lords ministers.The removal of Sir Tom Scholar as the lead permanent secretary at the Treasury should be a cause for celebration.Having worked in his department for nearly two years I saw at first hand the malign influence of the Treasury orthodoxy at play. Whether it was foot-dragging and passive resistance to creating a Treasury office in the north (in Darlington), which he fiercely resisted, or the botched arrangements in the construction of the bounceback loans during the pandemic, all roads led back to him.I hope very much that our new prime minister will build on her excellent decision and remove responsibility from the Treasury for driving economic growth. It has no idea how to deliver this. The system obsesses about measuring inputs, counting out the money distributed to departments, but has little clue of how to measure outcomes. Departments are infantilised in their management of money, with savings being automatically clawed back to the centre. This of course removes any incentive to think innovatively, creatively or cost-effectively. Continue reading...
Investors brace for further interest rate rises, as US CPI rose 8.3% in the year to August, dashing hopes of a larger fall, and food inflation is highest since 1979In the City, shares in online grocer Ocado have tumbled almost 10% after it warned customers are cutting back.My colleague Julia Kollewe explains:Ocado has warned that annual sales will drop because customers are trading down to value products and buying less overall amid a worsening cost-of-living crisis.The online grocer, which is owned partly by Marks & Spencer, said sales rose 2.7% from a year ago in the 13 weeks to 28 August, an improvement from the drop in the previous quarter.“At the same time, there remains extreme tightness with vacancies nonetheless remaining near record levels and economic inactivity reversing its recent falls to rise to its highest level since 2016. This was caused by people at opposite ends of the career ladder; largely driven by those aged 16 to 24 years and those aged 50 to 64 years. This participation gap in the labour market means hiring became even more challenging for employers.“While many people’s thoughts may be elsewhere at the moment, the cost-of-living crisis continues to be reflected in a squeeze on real terms pay. Despite historically strong nominal regular pay growth, real wages were down -2.8% on the year - one of the largest falls on record. Continue reading...
Lidl also reports big sales increase as research shows discount stores benefiting as shoppers economiseAldi has overtaken Morrisons to become the UK’s fourth largest supermarket for the first time, as grocery inflation hit a new record of 12.4% last month.Higher supermarket prices in August, adding £571 to the average annual grocery bill, encouraged more shoppers to closely manage their budgets, with the discount grocers benefiting, according to the market research company Kantar. Continue reading...
The sterling crisis of 30 years ago reinforced Britain’s ambivalence towards the European projectThis 16 September will mark 30 years since “Black Wednesday”, when the British pound was ignominiously ejected from the exchange rate mechanism (ERM) of the European monetary mystem. Not all anniversaries are occasions for celebration. This one certainly is not.Black Wednesday was “a day of disaster” from which John Major’s government never recovered. It had been Major, as chancellor of the exchequer in Margaret Thatcher’s government, who led Britain into the ERM in 1990, overriding the objections of his balky prime minister. Continue reading...
Grocery costs rose 8.3% in August, figures show, thanks to a 6.7% rise in eggs last month and a 15% surge in fruit and vegetablesShoppers may be forced to skip tomatoes, eggs and dairy products in New Zealand, as the country experiences the largest annual spike in food prices in 13 years.Stats NZ released new figures showing food prices had grown by 8.3% to August – the largest annual increase since the global financial crisis in July 2009 when food prices jumped up by 8.4%. Continue reading...
It would be irresponsible to create much higher unemployment – and the US economy could be pushed into recessionThe US Federal Reserve Board will meet again on 20-21 September, and while most analysts expect another big interest-rate rise, there is a strong argument for the Fed to take a break from its aggressive monetary-policy tightening. While its rate increases so far have slowed the economy – most obviously the housing sector – their impact on inflation is far less certain.Monetary policy typically affects economic performance with long and variable lags, especially in times of upheaval. Given the depth of geopolitical, financial and economic uncertainty – not least about the future course of inflation – the Fed would be wise to pause its rate rises until a more reliable assessment of the situation is possible. Continue reading...
GDP bounceback is unimpressive after boost from Euro 2022 contest and Commonwealth Games• UK economy grows more slowly than expected amid cost of living crisisThe weather was hot but the economy was lukewarm. As temperatures in the UK rose above 40 degrees centigrade for the first time, growth in July remained tepid.To be sure, the economy expanded, but some boost to activity was expected after the hit to growth in June caused by the double bank holiday to celebrate the late Queen’s platinum jubilee. Continue reading...
by Richard Partington Economics correspondent on (#63H51)
GDP rises by 0.2% in July as worker shortages and inflation weigh on activity• Analysis: UK economic growth remains tepid despite sizzling temperaturesThe UK economy grew more slowly than expected in July as worker shortages and soaring costs weighed on activity amid the heightened risk of recession.The Office for National Statistics said gross domestic product (GDP) rose by 0.2% in July, after a sharp fall of 0.6% in June when the additional bank holiday for the Queen’s platinum jubilee led to a decline in activity. Continue reading...
India recently overtook UK as the world’s fifth biggest economy – and it could be third by 2030The rise of China has been the biggest story in the global economy in recent decades. But amid concern about its stumbling property market and global fears about inflation, the emergence of its neighbour, India, as a potential new economic superpower may be going under the radar.You won’t find mention of it in Liz Truss’s blueprint for a “modern brilliant Britain”, but the UK has just been overtaken by India as the world’s fifth biggest economy. The nation of 1.4 billion people is on track to move into third place behind the US and China by 2030, according to economists. Continue reading...
GDP, inflation and retail sales figures due to be released over next few daysThe fragile state of Britain’s economy will be underlined this week by official figures showing a renewed slump in consumer spending amid soaring living costs, before a possible slowdown in activity during the national period of mourning after the death of Queen Elizabeth II.City economists are forecasting a further rise in inflation to 10.2% in August when official figures are published on Wednesday, as the rising price of a weekly shop and sky-high energy bills add to the financial pressure on struggling households. This would mark a modest uptick from the July reading of 10.1%, which was the first time the consumer prices index had risen above 10% since the early 1980s. Continue reading...
The cost of living, as now, was the focus for households when the Queen came to the throne in 1952When Queen Elizabeth II came to the throne, Britain was financially exhausted, rationing still in place and inflation high after the second world war. Then – as is now, after her death on Thursday – concerns over living costs were at the forefront.Over the course of the second Elizabethan age, the country has grown more prosperous, healthier and socially liberal. Real gross domestic product per person is almost four times larger than at her accession in February 1952, having been kickstarted in the first two decades of her reign by a golden age of economic growth. Continue reading...
Raising rates has no effect when the things that are rising in price the fastest, such as fuel and food, are essential purchasesCentral bankers appear on stage like army generals these days. They boast about their firepower and claim they will crush inflation, their longtime adversary. No quarter will be given in the war. The collateral damage will be high.A week on Thursday, the Bank of England will raise interest rates for a seventh time since last December, probably to 2.25%, and semaphore the message to financial markets that Threadneedle Street is not finished in its quest to defeat inflation. Continue reading...
Exclusive: Centrica chief tells the Guardian he is keen for it to sign up to new contracts with government on electricity generationBritish Gas owner Centrica plans to voluntarily cap booming profits in an effort to cut household bills and defuse outrage over them, the Guardian can reveal.The chief executive, Chris O’Shea, said he is keen for Centrica to become the “first company” to sign up to new, renegotiated contracts with the government on its electricity generation, amid controversy over windfall gains. Continue reading...
by Robert Booth Social affairs correspondent on (#63EJ3)
‘Full earnings’ account for wellbeing as well as financial reward – and make income gap look even worseIf you seek happiness, try captaining a ship or tiling walls for a living. But choose to be a judge, a housing officer or a theme park attendant, and prepare for a measure of misery.Groundbreaking research into UK employees’ “full earnings”, which tries to account for wellbeing as well as cash income, has revealed the jobs where the reality of the working day undermines the benefit of salary and those that offer the greatest rewards in addition to salary. Continue reading...
Decision about how to fight inflation follows increase by unprecedented 0.75 percentage pointsInterest rates across the eurozone must continue to ratchet upwards to tackle rapidly rising inflation, European Central Bank policymakers said.The ECB’s call to prioritise the fight against inflation with further increases in the cost of borrowing came after it raised rates by an unprecedented 0.75 percentage points on Thursday to 1.25%. Continue reading...
Anti-corruption measures and progressive taxes among actions recommended by leading academicsUkraine’s government needs to overhaul its tax and spending policies or risk an economic crisis that could “cripple its ability to sustain the war effort”, according to a group of leading economists.With inflation racing to more than 20% and a debt crisis looming, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy must introduce reforms to stabilise the economy’s shaky foundations, they warned. Continue reading...
by Peter Walker Political correspondent on (#63DPW)
Government likely to seek replacement amenable to its plans of economic growth through tax cutsLiz Truss has underlined her apparent intention to rip up recent economic policies by removing Tom Scholar as the most senior civil servant in the Treasury, despite warnings that his experience could prove vital this winter.Before becoming prime minister, Truss railed repeatedly against what she called “Treasury orthodoxy”, notably the predictions that her plan to make large and unfunded cut taxes could raise inflation and increase interest rates. Continue reading...
Christine Lagarde warns that eurozone economic growth is weakening, but EBC plumps for record increase in borrowing costs to curb inflationThe pound is dipping back towards yesterday’s 37-year lows, as concerns that Britain is sliding into recession hit the markets.Sterling is back below $1.15 against the US dollar, as investors fret about the extra borrowing needed to fund the energy rescue package.The pound has shifted up slightly from lows not seen against the dollar since 1985, when Ronald Regan was in power and Freddie Krueger had returned to screens as the monster under the bed.Now the energy shock is the nightmare to deal with on Downing Street, with Liz Truss set to unveil her expensive subsidy plan later today to deal with the bill horror. Continue reading...
European Central Bank sets aside recession fears to increase rates by 0.75 of a percentage point to 1.25%The European Central Bank has raised interest rates across the eurozone by a record margin to combat soaring inflation that has reached double figures in some of the currency bloc’s 19 member countries.Setting aside concerns that higher rates would add to the current squeeze on consumers’ disposable incomes and increase the depth of a looming recession, the central bank’s 25-member governing council raised its key benchmarks by an unprecedented 0.75 of a percentage point to 1.25%. Continue reading...
The UN’s call for windfall taxes must be taken up by governments to help break the power of greedy cartelsAs Winston Churchill reportedly said in the 1940s as he was working to co-form what would become the United Nations: “Never let a good crisis go to waste.” It is advice the giant oil and energy corporations and Opec, enabled by politicians, have taken to heart. This is reflected in the price of petrol and our ballooning heating bills.A new study calculated that the oil and gas industry has made more than $2.8bn (£2.4bn) a day in profits over the past half-century. In the second quarter of 2022, Exxon posted a profit of $17.9bn, the highest any publicly listed oil company has ever reported. Chevron hauled in $11.6bn, while Shell reported $11.47bn and BP $9.3 bn, its biggest windfall in more than 14 years. Continue reading...
It’s true that the UK Treasury thrives under the pressure of a crisis, from the 2007 financial crash to the Covid pandemic – but is its self-hyped reputation as the bedrock of government stability really deserved?There is a flattering story that the Treasury likes to tell about itself. Picture the scene in March 2020, Covid spreading fast around the world and countries implementing shutdowns and border closures. Boris Johnson, the prime minister, underestimating the problem, Matt Hancock, the health secretary, dithering. Government ministers praying for a modest death rate before herd immunity kicked in.Then, from the chaos, emerges someone with a real plan and a crack team: the new chancellor, Rishi Sunak, and behind him, the Treasury, peopled with the top brains of the civil service. “Whatever it takes,” says Sunak, as hundreds of billions of pounds are found and committed to the nation’s safety. The Treasury rolls out an extensive furlough and business support scheme. This ensures that the economy remains afloat while people can stay safe at home. Continue reading...
by Richard Partington and Kalyeena Makortoff on (#63BSD)
New chancellor on charm offensive in Square Mile says Bank of England independence ‘is sacrosanct’The government has moved to quash City speculation that Liz Truss is set to interfere with the political independence of the Bank of England, amid a currency depreciation in which the pound hit the lowest level against the dollar since 1985.In a charm offensive in the Square Mile as sterling came under renewed selling pressure on Wednesday, the new chancellor, Kwasi Kwarteng, used his first full day in the job to try to calm jittery financial markets amid growing concerns over the new prime minister’s economic policy. Continue reading...
New chancellor promises City bosses ‘radical’ plan for economic growth and smooths over Truss’s threat to review Bank’s remitThe new chancellor, Kwasi Kwarteng, has used his first meeting with bank bosses to reiterate his support for the Bank of England’s independence, and promise that the new government was poised to unveil a “radical” plan for economic growth.Kwarteng, who previously led the business department, told 14 executives from City firms, including HSBC, NatWest and Barclays, that the government was pursuing “unashamedly pro-growth” policies that would involve slashing taxes and regulations, while creating the right conditions for investment and innovation. Continue reading...
by Joanna Partridge and Richard Partington on (#63A81)
UK retailers and pubs rise on FTSE after outline emerges of new prime minister’s plan to tackle rising billsLiz Truss’s expected energy price freeze could stop inflation in Britain from rising further and reduce the severity of the recession that is forecast to hit the country this winter, economists have said.As details of the new prime minister’s plan to tackle soaring household bills emerged on Tuesday, some of the UK’s largest pub groups, food chains and retailers were among the biggest risers on the London stock market as investors bet that support for struggling families would bolster household spending across the economy. Continue reading...
Builders report customers are putting new work on hold as inflation reaches 40-year highBuilding firms suffered a squeeze on activity for a second month in a row during August as new orders slowed to their lowest level since the summer of 2020 in the latest sign that a UK recession is looming.With inflation at a 40-year high, construction businesses reported that their customers were putting new work on hold, forcing them to stop buying materials and hiring staff. Continue reading...
Brexiter tells Guardian that new PM understands need for tax cuts and orthodoxy must be challenged to revitalise economyWhen Liz Truss was asked by the BBC’s Nick Robinson whether she could name any economists who thought cutting taxes was the right medicine for the economy, Boris Johnson’s soon-to-be successor replied: “Patrick Minford.”It was a case of history repeating itself, coming four decades after the same question was put to another Conservative prime minister. After 364 economists wrote to the Times attacking the 1981 budget as deflationary the then Labour leader, Michael Foot, asked Margaret Thatcher whether she could name two economics professors who supported her strategy. Continue reading...
She takes office with a screeching handbrake turn on her flagship policy – how can anybody ever trust her judgment now?It should have been Liz Truss’s moment of triumph, her chance to bask in the glory of a whooping crowd.Yet victory, when it came, felt curiously flat. Gone was the bouncy, confident, shoot-from-the-hip Truss who emerged over two long months of hustings, after a wobbly start. When Britain’s new prime minister rose to the lectern to embrace a narrower win over Rishi Sunak than expected – narrow enough to make you wonder if he could even have won, had he played it differently – the old, slightly flat, stilted speaking manner was back. In Truss, that’s a sure sign of nerves. Perhaps only now does she feel the weight of what lies ahead.Gaby Hinsliff is a Guardian columnistGuardian Newsroom: What does Liz Truss’s leadership mean for the UK? Join our panel including Hugh Muir, Jessica Elgot, Owen Jones and Salma Shah as they react to the announcement of the new PM in this livestreamed event. On Tuesday 6 September 8pm BST | 9pm CEST | 12pm PDT | 3pm EDT. Book tickets hereDo you have an opinion on the issues raised in this article? If you would like to submit a letter of up to 300 words to be considered for publication, email it to us at guardian.letters@theguardian.com Continue reading...
Tax cuts and spending pledges could spook global markets and trigger a collapse in sterling, Deutsche Bank warnsBritain could face a 1970s-style balance of payments crisis in which the pound crashes if Liz Truss’s government loses the confidence of international investors, one of Europe’s biggest banks has warned.In a note entitled “Crunch time for sterling”, published on the day Truss won the Conservative leadership race, Deutsche Bank’s foreign exchange analyst Shreyas Gopal said a large, unfunded and untargeted package of tax cuts and spending pledges could alarm global markets. Continue reading...
European countries scramble to store as much gas as possible before winter as they brace for shortagesGas prices surged on Monday and the pound and euro slumped after Russia shut down a big pipeline indefinitely.Russia has used its control of gas supplies to exert pressure on European countries in retaliation against sanctions imposed after its invasion of Ukraine. Gazprom, the Russian state-controlled gas company, closed the Nord Stream 1 pipeline from Russia to Germany on Friday, saying it had found a leak requiring repair. Continue reading...
Economics | The Guardian