UK economy expanded by 0.2% in July, less than hoped, with growth driven by customer-facing services such as the sports and recreation sector

PM expected to attend UN meeting after Queen’s funeral, with ‘fiscal event’ likely to follow before end of next week

It would be irresponsible to create much higher unemployment – and the US economy could be pushed into recessionThe US Federal Reserve Board will meet again on 20-21 September, and while most analysts expect another big interest-rate rise, there is a strong argument for the Fed to take a break from its aggressive monetary-policy tightening. While its rate increases so far have slowed the economy – most obviously the housing sector – their impact on inflation is far less certain.Monetary policy typically affects economic performance with long and variable lags, especially in times of upheaval. Given the depth of geopolitical, financial and economic uncertainty – not least about the future course of inflation – the Fed would be wise to pause its rate rises until a more reliable assessment of the situation is possible. Continue reading...

GDP bounceback is unimpressive after boost from Euro 2022 contest and Commonwealth Games• UK economy grows more slowly than expected amid cost of living crisisThe weather was hot but the economy was lukewarm. As temperatures in the UK rose above 40 degrees centigrade for the first time, growth in July remained tepid.To be sure, the economy expanded, but some boost to activity was expected after the hit to growth in June caused by the double bank holiday to celebrate the late Queen’s platinum jubilee. Continue reading...

GDP rises by 0.2% in July as worker shortages and inflation weigh on activity• Analysis: UK economic growth remains tepid despite sizzling temperaturesThe UK economy grew more slowly than expected in July as worker shortages and soaring costs weighed on activity amid the heightened risk of recession.The Office for National Statistics said gross domestic product (GDP) rose by 0.2% in July, after a sharp fall of 0.6% in June when the additional bank holiday for the Queen’s platinum jubilee led to a decline in activity. Continue reading...

India recently overtook UK as the world’s fifth biggest economy – and it could be third by 2030The rise of China has been the biggest story in the global economy in recent decades. But amid concern about its stumbling property market and global fears about inflation, the emergence of its neighbour, India, as a potential new economic superpower may be going under the radar.You won’t find mention of it in Liz Truss’s blueprint for a “modern brilliant Britain”, but the UK has just been overtaken by India as the world’s fifth biggest economy. The nation of 1.4 billion people is on track to move into third place behind the US and China by 2030, according to economists. Continue reading...

GDP, inflation and retail sales figures due to be released over next few daysThe fragile state of Britain’s economy will be underlined this week by official figures showing a renewed slump in consumer spending amid soaring living costs, before a possible slowdown in activity during the national period of mourning after the death of Queen Elizabeth II.City economists are forecasting a further rise in inflation to 10.2% in August when official figures are published on Wednesday, as the rising price of a weekly shop and sky-high energy bills add to the financial pressure on struggling households. This would mark a modest uptick from the July reading of 10.1%, which was the first time the consumer prices index had risen above 10% since the early 1980s. Continue reading...

The cost of living, as now, was the focus for households when the Queen came to the throne in 1952When Queen Elizabeth II came to the throne, Britain was financially exhausted, rationing still in place and inflation high after the second world war. Then – as is now, after her death on Thursday – concerns over living costs were at the forefront.Over the course of the second Elizabethan age, the country has grown more prosperous, healthier and socially liberal. Real gross domestic product per person is almost four times larger than at her accession in February 1952, having been kickstarted in the first two decades of her reign by a golden age of economic growth. Continue reading...

Raising rates has no effect when the things that are rising in price the fastest, such as fuel and food, are essential purchasesCentral bankers appear on stage like army generals these days. They boast about their firepower and claim they will crush inflation, their longtime adversary. No quarter will be given in the war. The collateral damage will be high.A week on Thursday, the Bank of England will raise interest rates for a seventh time since last December, probably to 2.25%, and semaphore the message to financial markets that Threadneedle Street is not finished in its quest to defeat inflation. Continue reading...

Exclusive: Centrica chief tells the Guardian he is keen for it to sign up to new contracts with government on electricity generationBritish Gas owner Centrica plans to voluntarily cap booming profits in an effort to cut household bills and defuse outrage over them, the Guardian can reveal.The chief executive, Chris O’Shea, said he is keen for Centrica to become the “first company” to sign up to new, renegotiated contracts with the government on its electricity generation, amid controversy over windfall gains. Continue reading...

Bank of England delays interest rate decision as firms and unions pay respect, with TUC postponing annual gathering

Interest rate decision delayed, and TUC Congress postponed, as businesses, unions and investors mourns death of Queen Elizabeth

‘Full earnings’ account for wellbeing as well as financial reward – and make income gap look even worseIf you seek happiness, try captaining a ship or tiling walls for a living. But choose to be a judge, a housing officer or a theme park attendant, and prepare for a measure of misery.Groundbreaking research into UK employees’ “full earnings”, which tries to account for wellbeing as well as cash income, has revealed the jobs where the reality of the working day undermines the benefit of salary and those that offer the greatest rewards in addition to salary. Continue reading...

Decision about how to fight inflation follows increase by unprecedented 0.75 percentage pointsInterest rates across the eurozone must continue to ratchet upwards to tackle rapidly rising inflation, European Central Bank policymakers said.The ECB’s call to prioritise the fight against inflation with further increases in the cost of borrowing came after it raised rates by an unprecedented 0.75 percentage points on Thursday to 1.25%. Continue reading...

Anti-corruption measures and progressive taxes among actions recommended by leading academicsUkraine’s government needs to overhaul its tax and spending policies or risk an economic crisis that could “cripple its ability to sustain the war effort”, according to a group of leading economists.With inflation racing to more than 20% and a debt crisis looming, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy must introduce reforms to stabilise the economy’s shaky foundations, they warned. Continue reading...

Government likely to seek replacement amenable to its plans of economic growth through tax cutsLiz Truss has underlined her apparent intention to rip up recent economic policies by removing Tom Scholar as the most senior civil servant in the Treasury, despite warnings that his experience could prove vital this winter.Before becoming prime minister, Truss railed repeatedly against what she called “Treasury orthodoxy”, notably the predictions that her plan to make large and unfunded cut taxes could raise inflation and increase interest rates. Continue reading...

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Christine Lagarde warns that eurozone economic growth is weakening, but EBC plumps for record increase in borrowing costs to curb inflationThe pound is dipping back towards yesterday’s 37-year lows, as concerns that Britain is sliding into recession hit the markets.Sterling is back below $1.15 against the US dollar, as investors fret about the extra borrowing needed to fund the energy rescue package.The pound has shifted up slightly from lows not seen against the dollar since 1985, when Ronald Regan was in power and Freddie Krueger had returned to screens as the monster under the bed.Now the energy shock is the nightmare to deal with on Downing Street, with Liz Truss set to unveil her expensive subsidy plan later today to deal with the bill horror. Continue reading...

European Central Bank sets aside recession fears to increase rates by 0.75 of a percentage point to 1.25%The European Central Bank has raised interest rates across the eurozone by a record margin to combat soaring inflation that has reached double figures in some of the currency bloc’s 19 member countries.Setting aside concerns that higher rates would add to the current squeeze on consumers’ disposable incomes and increase the depth of a looming recession, the central bank’s 25-member governing council raised its key benchmarks by an unprecedented 0.75 of a percentage point to 1.25%. Continue reading...

The UN’s call for windfall taxes must be taken up by governments to help break the power of greedy cartelsAs Winston Churchill reportedly said in the 1940s as he was working to co-form what would become the United Nations: “Never let a good crisis go to waste.” It is advice the giant oil and energy corporations and Opec, enabled by politicians, have taken to heart. This is reflected in the price of petrol and our ballooning heating bills.A new study calculated that the oil and gas industry has made more than $2.8bn (£2.4bn) a day in profits over the past half-century. In the second quarter of 2022, Exxon posted a profit of $17.9bn, the highest any publicly listed oil company has ever reported. Chevron hauled in $11.6bn, while Shell reported $11.47bn and BP $9.3 bn, its biggest windfall in more than 14 years. Continue reading...

It’s true that the UK Treasury thrives under the pressure of a crisis, from the 2007 financial crash to the Covid pandemic – but is its self-hyped reputation as the bedrock of government stability really deserved?There is a flattering story that the Treasury likes to tell about itself. Picture the scene in March 2020, Covid spreading fast around the world and countries implementing shutdowns and border closures. Boris Johnson, the prime minister, underestimating the problem, Matt Hancock, the health secretary, dithering. Government ministers praying for a modest death rate before herd immunity kicked in.Then, from the chaos, emerges someone with a real plan and a crack team: the new chancellor, Rishi Sunak, and behind him, the Treasury, peopled with the top brains of the civil service. “Whatever it takes,” says Sunak, as hundreds of billions of pounds are found and committed to the nation’s safety. The Treasury rolls out an extensive furlough and business support scheme. This ensures that the economy remains afloat while people can stay safe at home. Continue reading...

Efforts to undermine Good Friday agreement would not create conducive environment for US-UK trade talks, says Biden’s press secretary

New chancellor on charm offensive in Square Mile says Bank of England independence ‘is sacrosanct’The government has moved to quash City speculation that Liz Truss is set to interfere with the political independence of the Bank of England, amid a currency depreciation in which the pound hit the lowest level against the dollar since 1985.In a charm offensive in the Square Mile as sterling came under renewed selling pressure on Wednesday, the new chancellor, Kwasi Kwarteng, used his first full day in the job to try to calm jittery financial markets amid growing concerns over the new prime minister’s economic policy. Continue reading...

New chancellor promises City bosses ‘radical’ plan for economic growth and smooths over Truss’s threat to review Bank’s remitThe new chancellor, Kwasi Kwarteng, has used his first meeting with bank bosses to reiterate his support for the Bank of England’s independence, and promise that the new government was poised to unveil a “radical” plan for economic growth.Kwarteng, who previously led the business department, told 14 executives from City firms, including HSBC, NatWest and Barclays, that the government was pursuing “unashamedly pro-growth” policies that would involve slashing taxes and regulations, while creating the right conditions for investment and innovation. Continue reading...

UK retailers and pubs rise on FTSE after outline emerges of new prime minister’s plan to tackle rising billsLiz Truss’s expected energy price freeze could stop inflation in Britain from rising further and reduce the severity of the recession that is forecast to hit the country this winter, economists have said.As details of the new prime minister’s plan to tackle soaring household bills emerged on Tuesday, some of the UK’s largest pub groups, food chains and retailers were among the biggest risers on the London stock market as investors bet that support for struggling families would bolster household spending across the economy. Continue reading...

Concerns that Liz Truss’s energy price freeze will drive up UK borrowing have pushed 10-year gilt yields to the highest in over a decade

Builders report customers are putting new work on hold as inflation reaches 40-year highBuilding firms suffered a squeeze on activity for a second month in a row during August as new orders slowed to their lowest level since the summer of 2020 in the latest sign that a UK recession is looming.With inflation at a 40-year high, construction businesses reported that their customers were putting new work on hold, forcing them to stop buying materials and hiring staff. Continue reading...

Brexiter tells Guardian that new PM understands need for tax cuts and orthodoxy must be challenged to revitalise economyWhen Liz Truss was asked by the BBC’s Nick Robinson whether she could name any economists who thought cutting taxes was the right medicine for the economy, Boris Johnson’s soon-to-be successor replied: “Patrick Minford.”It was a case of history repeating itself, coming four decades after the same question was put to another Conservative prime minister. After 364 economists wrote to the Times attacking the 1981 budget as deflationary the then Labour leader, Michael Foot, asked Margaret Thatcher whether she could name two economics professors who supported her strategy. Continue reading...

Latest updates: culture secretary will not serve in Truss’s cabinet and is expected to receive peerage from Boris Johnson

She takes office with a screeching handbrake turn on her flagship policy – how can anybody ever trust her judgment now?It should have been Liz Truss’s moment of triumph, her chance to bask in the glory of a whooping crowd.Yet victory, when it came, felt curiously flat. Gone was the bouncy, confident, shoot-from-the-hip Truss who emerged over two long months of hustings, after a wobbly start. When Britain’s new prime minister rose to the lectern to embrace a narrower win over Rishi Sunak than expected – narrow enough to make you wonder if he could even have won, had he played it differently – the old, slightly flat, stilted speaking manner was back. In Truss, that’s a sure sign of nerves. Perhaps only now does she feel the weight of what lies ahead.Gaby Hinsliff is a Guardian columnistGuardian Newsroom: What does Liz Truss’s leadership mean for the UK? Join our panel including Hugh Muir, Jessica Elgot, Owen Jones and Salma Shah as they react to the announcement of the new PM in this livestreamed event. On Tuesday 6 September 8pm BST | 9pm CEST | 12pm PDT | 3pm EDT. Book tickets hereDo you have an opinion on the issues raised in this article? If you would like to submit a letter of up to 300 words to be considered for publication, email it to us at guardian.letters@theguardian.com Continue reading...

Tax cuts and spending pledges could spook global markets and trigger a collapse in sterling, Deutsche Bank warnsBritain could face a 1970s-style balance of payments crisis in which the pound crashes if Liz Truss’s government loses the confidence of international investors, one of Europe’s biggest banks has warned.In a note entitled “Crunch time for sterling”, published on the day Truss won the Conservative leadership race, Deutsche Bank’s foreign exchange analyst Shreyas Gopal said a large, unfunded and untargeted package of tax cuts and spending pledges could alarm global markets. Continue reading...

European countries scramble to store as much gas as possible before winter as they brace for shortagesGas prices surged on Monday and the pound and euro slumped after Russia shut down a big pipeline indefinitely.Russia has used its control of gas supplies to exert pressure on European countries in retaliation against sanctions imposed after its invasion of Ukraine. Gazprom, the Russian state-controlled gas company, closed the Nord Stream 1 pipeline from Russia to Germany on Friday, saying it had found a leak requiring repair. Continue reading...

Oil cartel agrees 100,000 barrels/day cut to production; wholesale gas prices jump after Russia keeps a key pipeline to Europe closed.

Thatcherism was disastrous 40 years ago, but the new prime minister seems intent on reviving it to meet the crises of 2022Liz Truss and her likely chancellor of the exchequer, Kwasi Kwarteng, belong to a particular generation, many of whom once asked their parents: “Can a man be prime minister?” Not even four years old when Margaret Thatcher took power, 15 when she lost it and well into adulthood before the Tories were finally defeated, their earliest political awakenings would have taken place against the long backdrop of Thatcherism.This biographical context is acknowledged in the notorious political tract that Truss and Kwarteng co-authored with Priti Patel, Dominic Raab and Chris Skidmore, Britannia Unchained, published in 2012. “All five authors grew up in a period where Britain was improving its performance relative to the rest of the world,” it says. “The 1980s, contrary to the beliefs of many on the left, were a successful decade for Britain.” Their objective is to resurrect political dreams from their own childhood.William Davies is a sociologist and political economist. His most recent book is Unprecedented? How Covid-19 Revealed the Politics of Our EconomyGuardian Newsroom: What does Liz Truss’s leadership mean for the UK? Join our panel including Hugh Muir, Jessica Elgot, Owen Jones and Salma Shah as they react to the announcement of the new PM in this livestreamed event. On Tuesday 6 September 8pm BST | 9pm CEST | 12pm PDT | 3pm EDT. Book tickets hereDo you have an opinion on the issues raised in this article? If you would like to submit a letter of up to 300 words to be considered for publication, email it to us at guardian.letters@theguardian.com Continue reading...

Activity in manufacturing and services fell last month as businesses struggle with soaring costsLiz Truss will become the UK’s next prime minister with the economy on the brink of recession, according to figures that show private sector activity fell last month as businesses struggle with soaring costs.The latest snapshot from S&P Global and the Chartered Institute of Procurement and Supply (Cips) revealed a “severe and accelerated” decline in manufacturing output in August, alongside weaker activity in the UK’s dominant service sector. Continue reading...

Nadhim Zahawi’s successor will have to provide support as the country grapples with falling into recessionThe chancellor picked by Britain’s new prime minister will face a daunting array of issues from the moment he or she takes office.Whoever takes the hot seat in the Treasury will find themselves in a similar position to Rishi Sunak in March 2020 when the pandemic hit and the economy faced being shutdown for several months. Continue reading...

Expected Tory winner again refuses to reveal details amid growing concerns about her plans to cut taxes

Retailer’s research shows people want to spend money on enjoying life day to day as cost of living continues to riseFor close to a century, John Lewis has been “never knowingly undersold”, but the retailer is now positioning itself as being there “for all life’s moments” as it adapts to a profound shift in spending habits driven by Covid-19 and rising living costs.The pledge is designed to tap into what the department store chain is billing as the “moments economy”, as Britons spend smaller amounts on enjoying day-to-day life – from hosting a dinner party to celebrating a dog’s birthday – rather than splurging on set-piece events such as foreign holidays. Continue reading...

We need to target our response by replacing price caps with a new system of ‘free basic energy’

Incoming prime minister’s only priority over next few weeks should be to avoid meltdownThe waiting is almost over. Conservative party members have made their choice. This week a new prime minister will be installed in Downing Street at the most testing time imaginable. Even February 1974, when Harold Wilson came to power and ended Britain’s three-day week, doesn’t really match up to the omni-crisis with which Boris Johnson’s successor has to grapple. Arguably, it is the grimmest inheritance since Winston Churchill’s in May 1940.All the smart money is on Liz Truss winning the race, although in retrospect it may come to be seen as a Pyrrhic victory because the new prime minister will arrive in office with the economy about to hit the wall, energy bills soaring, the pound crashing and the global financial markets selling off. Continue reading...

As we wrestle with the disaster of Brexit and loss of the single market, our next PM is ruining Anglo-French relationsDuring a blissful holiday in the Vaucluse I managed to avoid any news about this dangerously absurd Conservative leadership election – that is, apart from one classic Truss gaffe.Yes, the news that Liz Truss had declared that “the jury is out” on the UK’s future relations with France most certainly struck a dissonant chord with Kate McKinley, who runs the Mourchon winery in Séguret. She informed me of it with a despairing air, adding also that President Emmanuel Macron had reacted with the tolerance that has become his lot in matters of Anglo-French relations as long as the Brexiters reign over here. Continue reading...

Covid has pushed many states’ debts above annual income, but the UK has lower credibility than some with lendersBritain is about to become a member of a club it has avoided joining for six decades – that of nations with a 100% debt-to-GDP ratio.Such is the size and scale of the rescue packages needed to prevent the energy crisis overwhelming millions of families and avoid thousands of businesses going bust, a debt ratio that shot up from 83% to 94% in the first months of the pandemic and touched almost 104% in 2021, is now on course to stay in three figures for the rest of the decade. Continue reading...

US non-farm payroll rose by 315,000 in August, as hiring slowed after a strong July

Some previous surges were followed by sharp declines, but world instability means the euro and yen could fall

Numbers come as Jerome Powell says Federal Reserve intends to continue interest rate hikes to try to tamp down inflationThe US added another 315,000 jobs in August as the jobs market remained strong amid signs of a worsening economy.The US jobs market lost 22m jobs in early 2020 at the start of the pandemic but roared back after the Covid lockdowns ended. It has remained strong despite four-decade-high rates of inflation and slowing economic growth. In July, the US unexpectedly added 526,000 new jobs, restoring employment to pre-pandemic levels. Continue reading...

Talk on picket line in Felixstowe and high street in Ipswich says new PM has just weeks to tackle crisisOn the picket lines outside the port of Felixstowe there is a feeling breaking point has been reached. Against a soundtrack of Bob Marley’s Get up, Stand Up pumping out over speakers, all the talk among the throng of dockers outside Britain’s biggest container terminal is of wages failing to keep pace with soaring living costs.“People have had enough,” says Donna Crichton, one of the many represented by the Unite union in the eight-day strike, which ended without resolution last week. The 41-year-old, who lives at home with her parents, says buying or renting a home is a pipe dream when living costs are going through the roof. Continue reading...

Each day brings more news about a spiralling catastrophe – the economy is crying out for major government interventionThe gigantic scale of the oncoming economic shock becomes clearer by the hour. Click – and there’s Goldman Sachs predicting a 22% inflation rise next year. Click again and Bloomberg reports UK energy companies will make £170bn in excess profits over the next two years. If interest rates do hit 4%, banks too will roll in unearned mortgage money, plus shedloads from money loaned to the government. Fine profits will be made from national misery.Each day dawning reveals how everything, everywhere, is at a perilous tipping point. Martin Lewis warns that lives will be lost from cold and hunger, amplified by Sir Michael Marmot’s warning yesterday of children in grave peril. Lewis is not “catastrophising”, he says: “This is a catastrophe, plain and simple unaffordable.” If only he were to be the new chancellor … carry on with your own Jack Monroe-and-Marcus Rashford dream team.Polly Toynbee is a Guardian columnist Continue reading...

Energy prices fall in UK and Europe; Resolution Foundation warns three million more people could be pulled into absolute poverty

Analysts say manufacturing recession has begun as new orders fall amid soaring inflation and economic uncertaintyUK factory production slumped in August at the fastest rate since the early Covid-19 pandemic lockdown month of May 2020 after manufacturers suffered a sharp reversal in new orders from domestic and overseas customers.Analysts said a manufacturing recession had begun after firms reported that clients had “postponed, rescheduled or cancelled agreements” in response to economic uncertainties, soaring inflation and component shortages. Continue reading...

Funding still needs to be approved but could offer breathing space amid country’s economic turmoilThe International Monetary Fund has tentatively offered Sri Lanka a $2.9bn (£2.5bn) loan to help the country recover from the worst economic crisis since it gained independence from Britain in 1948.The funding is meant to provide some breathing space for Sri Lanka, which is scrambling to restructure nearly $30bn in debt to creditors including China, India and a string of international banks. Continue reading...