NextBigFuture.com

There are road closures scheduled for a possible 33 raptor engine static fire next week. This would the final major step before the first attempted orbital launch of the Starship Super Heavy.

The concept of Singularity is popular for futurists and for science fiction writers. However, it is very vague. It is an intelligence or technology “explosion”. What does that mean? We don’t know. How do you measure it? I have a proposal. I think it is more useful to define and quantify a Singularity as a ... Read more

The UK Atomic Energy Authority (‘UKAEA’) and First Light Fusion (‘First Light’) have today signed an agreement for the design and construction of a new purpose-built facility to house First Light’s Machine 4 at UKAEA’s Culham Campus in Oxfordshire. First Light is pursuing an “inertial confinement” approach to fusion. First Light’s method leverages the same ... Read more

Tesla has released its fourth quarter earnings. Tesla had their earnings call. Highlights of the call: Year-to-date order demand is over double production levels. This is due to increased demand from the price cuts. Tesla is splitting the Nevada Panasonic battery tax credits. Assuming 50-50 split this would be about $150m per quarter. This will ... Read more

Benjamin Jorns, U-M associate professor of aerospace engineering led a new Hall thruster study that operated a Hall Plasma thruster at five times old power limits. His team challenged ran a 9 kilowatt-rated Hall thruster at up to 45 kilowatts while maintaining roughly 80% of its nominal efficiency. This increased the amount of force generated ... Read more

Elon Musk told his Tesla Nevada team that the new $3.6 billion Semi truck and 4680 factory will start with a 100 GWh/year production target but in the long term will expand to 500 GWh/year. This will be part of Tesla producting 1000-3000 GWh/year of 4680 batteries in total from Austin, Berlin, Shanghai and Nevada. ... Read more

Elon Musk said that Tesla plans to produce at least 100 GWH/year 4680 batteries from the new Nevada factory and this could reach 500 GWH/year. This will be part of Tesla expanding 4680 battery production to 1000-3000 GWH/year. This will be in addition to batteries from other suppliers like CATL. The 100 GWh/year is just ... Read more

Tesla will be investing over $3.6 billion more to continue growing Gigafactory Nevada, adding 3,000 new team members and two new factories: a 100 GWh 4680 cell factory (with capacity to produce enough batteries for 1.5 million light-duty vehicles annually) and the first high-volume Semi factory. Semi is the fully electric combination truck, with 500 ... Read more

CALB aims for ‘aggressive’ expansion in its goal to be among the world’s top three EV battery makers. CALB is targeting a total capacity of 500 gigawatt-hours (GWh) in 2025, more than 42 times the 11.9 GWh it produced in 2021 and about 30 GWH in 2022. The Jiangsu-based company raised US$1.26 billion in its ... Read more

The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has issued the final rule certifying NuScale Power’s small modular reactor (SMR), making it the seventh reactor design – and the first SMR – to be cleared by the regulator for use in the USA. The NRC accepted NuScale’s SMR design certification application back in March 2018 and issued ... Read more

A photo of the Tesla Model 3 Highland was shared on the r/TeslaMotors subreddit by member u/the_frog_said. The exterior design of the Model 3 appears to be unchanged, but it is believed to have front and rear castings, new internal parts and infotainment. The new Tesla Model 3 Highland is expected to start production in ... Read more

Tesla’s first major Semi Truck factory will be in Nevada and not Texas. Tesla’s reported plans for a $3.5 billion facility in Northern Nevada, which would be used for the production of the company’s Class 8 all-electric truck, the Tesla Semi. Tesla has over 2000 orders for the Semi and is targeting 50,000 per year ... Read more

Starship completed its first full flight-like wet dress rehearsal at Starbase today. This was the first time an integrated Ship and Booster were fully loaded with more than 10 million pounds of propellant. The next steps are : 1. Destacking, restacking and then the test of all 33 Raptor engines. 2. Rolling back to the ... Read more

Nuclear Thermal Propulsion (NTP) is one of the best options for manned missions throughout the solar system with over double the ISP of chemical rockets. A new NASA NIAC study will look at improved nuclear propulsion with a Wave Rotor combined with Nuclear Electric. This could enable four times the ISP of nuclear thermal and ... Read more

The future of space-based UV/optical/IR astronomy requires ever larger telescopes. A NASA NIAC Phase 1 study will look at a space observatory with a large-aperture (50-meter) unsegmented primary mirror suitable for a variety of astronomical applications. The mirror would be created in space via a novel approach based on fluidic shaping in microgravity, which has ... Read more

Jordan Giesige of the Limiting Factor describes the technological advantages of the Tesla Semi. They have 35% more efficiency in the engines and 20% in the power train over other electric Semis. The Tesla Semi is about 17% more cost-efficient than diesel semis. This is because of nearly 80% lower fuel costs with efficient electricity. ... Read more

An independent media site reports that Tesla has 2000 orders for the Tesla Semi truck. Tesla has targeted building and delivering 50,000 Tesla Semi trucks in 2024. This would imply that Tesla has strong interest for many orders if the early adopters, Pepsi and Walmart, get good results for the first few hundred trucks. Above ... Read more

NASA has a phase 1 NIAC (NASA Innovative Advanced Concepts) to overcome the limitations for making giant lightweight dish structures in space. In this NIAC effort, they aim to overcome limitations by using a novel in-space manufacturing method and advanced materials to fabricate high-performance reflectors with dimensions greater than 100 meters, 100 m/m surface precision, ... Read more

The SpaceX Starship Wet Rehearsal is being done today and they fully fueled the Super Heavy Starship. They appear to be detanking down. If the SpaceX Starship Wet Rehearsal is good. Destacking, restacking and a test firing of all 33 engines. The rocket is then rolled back to launch pad, then with FAA approval go ... Read more

NASA has funded a phase 1 NIAC (NASA Innovation Advanced Concepts) study to get through about 24 miles (40 kilometers) of ice on Europa and other moons with liquid oceans. Jupiter’s satellite Europa almost certainly hides a global saltwater ocean beneath its icy surface. Chemistry at the ice surface and ocean-rock interface might provide the ... Read more

Angry Astronaut made a video based off of my (and Centauri Dreams) Avatar’s Antimatter rocket which is based off an actual scientifically sound design. The Second Avatar movie passed $2 billion in box office this weekend. The movie will likely pass Titanic for third highest box office. This will only be behind the first Avatar ... Read more

This site has written a few dozen articles on the Tesla Semi truck and other electric trucks and there has been criticism from many commenters who say how the Tesla electric semi will not work for them as experienced truckers. Long haul truckers driving 800+ miles a day going all of over the US for ... Read more

The Second Avatar movie will surpass $2 billion in box office. The start of the first Avatar movie showed the Valkyrie Antimatter rocket design. This was an actual antimatter rocket design. The first Avatar movie made almost $3 billion in box office. The second movie should be able to reach $2.5 billion and could go ... Read more

The global 2022 were 7.7 million BEVs and with plug in hybrid (PHEV and BEV) over 10 million in 2022. The global share is 12.5 % for BEV. About 200k EV units were lost in China due to massive COVID outbreaks in December. In 2023, the number of Global BEV will easily surpass 10 million ... Read more

Russia has announced plans to expand its military to 1.5 million personnel over the next four years. Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced the troop increase is expected to be complete by 2026, according to Russian state news agency, TASS. Russia will reorganize seven motorized rifle brigades in the western, central, and eastern military districts, the ... Read more

Japan had nominal (exchange rate per capita GDP) in 1988 that was 117% of the US level (17% higher) but this has fallen to less than half. On a purchasing power per capita income level Japan peaked at about 80% of the US level (about the level of France and the UK) but the PPP ... Read more

Japan’s economy has been in relative decline compared to many other developed countries. Japan sold 4.2 million cars in 2022 which is the lowest in 45 years. The cars that were sold were the cheaper K cars like the Honda N-Box and Toyota Yaris. The N-Box and Yaris are 1.6 million yen or about $12,500. ... Read more

Nextbigfuture has written about the Tesla Electric Semi. The Tesla Electric Semi can have electricity costs of 17 cents per mile. There have been trucker commenters saying that the maintenance costs are different for electric trucks and the battery replacement will wreck the economics of the 500 mile range truck. 60-80% of the loads seem ... Read more

Nextbigfuture has to go into all the details of the costs (energy and maintenance) in order to address arguments against a transition over time from diesel trucks to electric semi trucks. This is one of the articles going over the information. A person who claims to be trucker in the comments says: All I know ... Read more

SpaceX is targeting over 100 orbital launches in 2023 after launching 61 times in 2022. They just had their fifth successful launch which is more than every other country or region in the world in 2022, except China and Russia. SpaceX is the main launch company for the USA and the primary commercial launch company ... Read more

In the first 18 days of 2023, SpaceX has had its fourth successful orbital launch. SpaceX is targeting a fifth orbital mission tomorrow. The mission tomorrow is for launching 51 Starlink satellites. This means SpaceX, in just 18 days, has matched or surpassed the number of successful orbital launches in 2022 for all other countries ... Read more

Lasers have been used to divert lightning strikes in real-world experiments. The work suggests that laser beams could be used as lightning rods to protect infrastructure, although perhaps not any time soon. Metal lightning rods are commonly used to divert lightning strikes and safely dissipate their charge. But the rods’ size is limited and they ... Read more

Elon Musk has tweeted that he expects SpaceX to make five full Stack Super Heavy Starships in 2023. If there is a successful orbital Stack Super Heavy Starships launch in February, 2023 then Super Heavy Starships could start flying weekly by Q4 2023. How many starships is spacex looking to build this year ? — ... Read more

Elon Musk says Tesla FSD version 11 should start rolling out later this week, next week at the latest. Tesla is starting to make use of neural nets for vehicle navigation & control, not just vision. Wen fsd beta v11.3? — Tesla Owners Silicon Valley (@teslaownersSV) January 14, 2023 Should start rolling out later this ... Read more

There was a 2021 analysis of electric trucks in China, but the introduction of mega charging and the Tesla Semi has completely outdated the assumptions. The report by The International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) looked at the Total Cost of Ownership for Heavy Trucks in China: Battery-electric, fuel-cell electric and diesel trucks. It was ... Read more

The US Department of Energy reports that class 8 trucks average 62,000 miles a year. The American Trucking Association provides the following statistics on trucking in America. Trucks move roughly 72.2% of the nation’s (USA) freight by weight. US Annual Trucking Revenue: $875.5 billion in gross freight revenues (primary shipments only) from trucking, representing 80.8% ... Read more

Poland is looking to send a dozen Leopard 2 tanks. However, Germany must approve the transfer. The Leopard 2 is a German-made tank and Berlin holds the export license. Germany’s reluctance has delayed Poland, Spain, Finland, The Netherlands from donating surplus Leopard 2s to the Ukraine. The German defense minister has resigned and it seems ... Read more

I made mistakes calculating how much electricity would be needed for 4 million total USA semi trucks and 40 million large trucks globally. There are also another 40 million light and medium trucks for commercial usage in the USA and another 120 million consumer pickup trucks and SUVs. Regular people use trucks far less than ... Read more

Helion Fusion CEO, David Kirtley, presented an update on the work as of December, 2022. They are working on their seventh-generation prototype system and they have had over 10,000 shots with the sixth-generation system. They create and form plasmas and accelerate two plasmas to merge at supersonic speeds. They do not inject beams and operate ... Read more

A new NASA NIAC phase 1 study is analyzing a 20-meter class infrared space telescope. It is currently impossible to find Earth-like planets in the habitable zones (where the temperature supports liquid water) of Sun-like stars. It is even harder to measure the composition of their atmospheres. But this is necessary if we want to ... Read more

Researchers developed a system called “ICE” (inducible changes to the epigenome) in DNA reparation, which actually advances aging, and also discovered that the process can be reversed by using OSK-mediated rejuvenation. Using the ICE system, young mice have aged quickly, but with dire consequences on the tissues in their bodies. Journal Cell – Loss of ... Read more

SpaceX had a successful Sunday, January 15 launch for Falcon Heavy’s launch of the USSF-67 mission to a geosynchronous Earth orbit from Launch Complex 39A (LC-39A) at Kennedy Space Center in Florida. Following booster separation, Falcon Heavy’s two side boosters will land on SpaceX’s Landing Zones 1 and 2 (LZ-1 and LZ-2) at Cape Canaveral ... Read more

Fortune and others are reporting that Microsoft will close a $10 billion investment deal into the artificial intelligence startup before the end of this month. This is discussed in the All-in-Pod cast. The deal will have a unique structure in that Microsoft will get 49% of the company but 75% of future profits. Chamath is ... Read more

A Phase 1 NASA NIAC study will demonstrate the feasibility of a revolutionary power source for missions to the outer planets utilizing a new paradigm in thermal power conversion, the thermoradiative cell (TRC). This device, driven by a radioisotope heat source, will allow an order of magnitude increase in mass specific power (~30 vs ~3 ... Read more

Tesla cut the prices of their cars in the USA and Europe by up to 23%. This ensures that all by the Model Y performance will get the $7500 tax credit in the US. This price cut and the tax credit means the Model Y is selling for $22,000 less and the Model 3s are ... Read more

NASA NIAC phase 1 studies development of a nuclear fission fragment rocket engine (FFRE) that is exponentially more propellent efficient than rocket engines currently used to power today’s space vehicles and could achieve very high specific impulse (>100,000 sec) at high power density (>kW/kg). Fission Fragment rockets are several proposed nuclear rocket designs made since ... Read more

NASA NIAC has a phase 1 study for Artur Davoyan to study propulsion architecture for fast transit of heavy (1 ton and more) payloads across the solar system and to interstellar medium. This version of a pellet beams approach allow for larger vehicles to reach speeds nine times faster than Voyager 1. Inspired by the ... Read more

Jordan of the Limiting Factor goes into detail on electric semi trucks and the megacharging that will be needed. I will go over the scale of the shift for electric trucks. The motivation is that it will make trucks about 30% cheaper to operate by saving 80% of the fuel costs. It also means countries ... Read more

Peter Zeihan made a series of mostly unsupported and false claims about electric vehicles while being interviewed on the Joe Rogan show. James Stephenson goes through all of the over forty aspects of what Peter Zeihan said. Here is the video and I have below screen shots of the thorough take down of each unsupported ... Read more

Aerographite exists as seen in the petri dish from over two years ago. It is 15000 times lighter than aluminum and making 1 micron pellets and releasing them from where we have already sent the Parker solar mission near the sun they would reach over 2% of lightspeed. A steady stream of these small pellets ... Read more