Economics | The Guardian

Bosses say 1.25-point rise heaps pressure on firms already enduring soaring costs linked to Covid and BrexitBritain’s employers are being forced to shoulder a £9bn tax rise after the government pushed ahead with raising national insurance on Wednesday despite stiff opposition.Company bosses said the 1.25-percentage-point rise in national insurance contributions (NICs), which is paid by workers and their employers, would add to already severe pressure from runaway inflation and soaring business costs this year linked to Covid, Brexit and Russia’s war in Ukraine. Continue reading...

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Groundbreaking report is first to assign responsibility for damage caused by 160 countries in past 50 yearsThe US and Europe are responsible for the majority of global ecological damage caused by the overuse of natural resources, according to a groundbreaking study.The paper is the first to analyse and assign responsibility for the ecological damage caused by 160 countries over the last half century. Continue reading...

Speaker tells parliament ‘there will be very acute food shortages’ and economic crisis is ‘just the beginning’

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Global inflation outlook contrasts with Bank of England, which estimates inflation will fall next yearThe world economy may be on the brink of a new inflationary era with persistently higher growth in consumer prices due to the retreat of globalisation, a leading central bank chief has said.Agustín Carstens, head of the Basel-based Bank for International Settlements – which is known as the central bank of central banks – said there was a strong risk that prices would rise uncontrollably without a sharp rise in interest rates above existing plans. Continue reading...

Shoppers are in for a shock as the cost of kitchen essentials hits record highsWhether it’s chips, stir-fry or curry on the menu, the financial shock from the war in Ukraine is being felt keenly in the kitchen as cooking oil prices hit record highs.The cost had already rocketed even before Vladimir Putin’s invasion, but now vegetable oil goes for £1.30 a litre at the supermarket, up 23p, or 22%, on a year ago. Sunflower oil – of which Ukraine and Russia are major producers – is up sharply too, by 17p to £1.34 a litre, according to NielsenIQ Scantrack data. Continue reading...

Country hit by companies pulling out, as US halts Russian government dollar debt paymentsRussia’s services sector has suffered the worst slump in activity since the Covid-19 pandemic hit in 2020 as consumers and businesses cancelled orders amid increasingly severe western sanctions after the invasion of Ukraine.A closely watched business survey showed that new orders during March dived as restrictions on imports and exports began to bite and inflation raised the price of services at the fastest rate on record. Continue reading...

From May, a 1.5% charge will hit mobile phone transactions above 100 cedis (£10). In the country’s bustling markets, people are angry and anxiousAt her shop in Accra’s sprawling Kantamanto market – one of the largest for second-hand clothes in west Africa – Cynthia Bentum sits on top of a mound of goods imported from Guangzhou and Manchester.Many who trawl through her clothes are traders themselves and pay via their mobile phones, so the decision by Ghana’s government this week to tax all electronic payments has left Bentum, 49, frustrated. Continue reading...

Conflict adds strain to developing economies in east Asia and Pacific already struggling with Covid and inflationRussia’s invasion of Ukraine has further dampened the economic prospects for developing countries in east Asia and the Pacific, meaning lower economic growth and higher poverty in the region this year, the World Bank has warned.The Ukraine factor came on top of the existing risks that the region – home to 2.1 billion people and stretching from China to Papua New Guinea – has been facing in recent years. They included the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic, the financial tightening in the US, and the pandemic resurgence amid China’s zero-Covid policies. Continue reading...

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With work changed forever by the pandemic, firms say shorter week could help attract and retain staffMore than 3,000 workers at 60 companies across Britain will trial a four-day working week, in what is thought to be the biggest pilot scheme to take place anywhere in the world.Employees from a wide range of businesses and charities are expected to take part in the scheme, which will run initially from June to December, including the Royal Society of Biology, the London-based brewing company Pressure Drop, a Manchester-based medical devices firm, and a fish and chip shop in Norfolk. Continue reading...

The chancellor would prefer forecasts to be more upbeat, but the economic outlook is unremittingly bleakRishi Sunak should be used to grim economic forecasts. In his two years as chancellor, he’s been warned to brace for the worst jobs crisis since the 1980s, a recession without parallel for three centuries, and the biggest shock to the public finances since the second world war.Not everything came to pass. Extending furlough – rather than ending it early as the chancellor planned – prevented unemployment from hitting levels unseen since the days of his political idol Nigel Lawson. Continue reading...

Firms say they need the kind of help that EU competitors get as gas and electricity prices soarBritain’s strategic heavy industries have warned they risk being left high and dry by a lack of support in the government’s upcoming energy strategy, warning that failure to follow European countries’ measures to reduce gas and electricity costs will put UK businesses at risk.The government is expected to outline long-awaited proposals this week for a once-in-a-generation drive to invest in nuclear power and possibly more onshore wind and solar power, as well as approving continued North Sea oil and gas exploration. Continue reading...

This government is faced with a collapse in real incomes, spending, and its own popularity. But still it will not actWe have passed the Ides of March, and Boris Johnson is still in office. Until the start of Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, the conventional wisdom held that the skids were under the prime minister: his nine political lives were almost exhausted and he was seriously threatened by the none-too-subtle manoeuvres of his neighbour, Chancellor Sunak.Then Putin emerged as an unlikely deus ex machina and the conventional wisdom became that Johnson was once more safe. Folklore tells us it is an ill wind that blows nobody any good: this truly terrible carnage in Ukraine has prompted certain observers to say this is “Johnson’s Falklands”. Continue reading...

Emmanuel Macron’s reforms have seen the country pull ahead of the UK on most economic measuresWhile the UK, US and much of the EU are gripped by a cost-of-living crisis heightened by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, in France, President Emmanuel Macron’s “tariff shield” is helping keep a lid on rising prices.Inflation there hit 4.5% in March, and while this was up from February’s 3.6%, it remains one of the lowest rates in the industrialised west and well below the UK’s 6.2%, Germany’s 7.3%, Spain’s 9.8% and 11.9% in the Netherlands. A decision last year to limit the amount by which France’s largely state-owned energy companies could raise prices has benefited consumers and taken some of the inflationary pressure off industries that depend on gas and electricity. Continue reading...

The US executive took over the port in 2019, in the heat of the debate about the EU. He’s not surprised it’s been a challengeWhen Doug Bannister told his family he would be joining the Port of Dover as its chief executive, weeks before the original March 2019 Brexit date, his father-in-law voiced what many might have thought: “Are you mad?”The softly spoken American clearly isn’t one to shy away from a daunting task, including taking over at Britain’s busiest port during what he calls the “once in a generation” change in the country’s trading relationship with its closest neighbours. Continue reading...

As the squeeze on household budgets tightens, many will turn to local authorities for help: but their councillors are also struggling with inflationInflation is weighing on Nazia Rehman’s mind. Not only has the Wigan councillor been approached by scores of residents who can’t afford their energy bills, but some of the town’s community centres – tasked with helping the very same people – now face similar problems.“They’re saying they’re not sustainable any more because of the risk they can’t afford their expenses,” she says. “They’re our eyes and ears: people use them and they’re so valued by our community. It would be a disaster if they go.” Continue reading...

Politicians tend to subscribe to the same set of assumptions because they are terrified of being labelled radical, writes Jamie Driscoll. Plus letters from Dr Hugh Firth , Oliver McAdoo, Mike Garnier and Cathy WoodGeorge Monbiot’s claim that “our system of organised lying has created an entire class of politicians, officials, media commentators, cultural leaders, academics and intellectuals who nod along with” capitalist orthodoxy is largely true (Putin exploits the lie machine but didn’t invent it. British history is also full of untruths, 30 March).I’m a metro mayor. We’ve run a citizens’ assembly on climate change and are implementing its recommendations. We’ve invested in clean energy and our Green New Deal is operational. We promote our Good Work Pledge, directly tackle child poverty, and are investing in the social and cooperative economy. Our policy objective is to create a zero-carbon, zero-poverty North of Tyne. I call for wealth taxes, and without urgent and crisis-level action, we will destroy our planet’s capacity to support us. Continue reading...

Cost of living crisis intensifies with average annual gas and electricity bill poised to double to £2,600

Live rolling coverage of business, economics and financial markets as energy costs rise and criminal investigation opened into P&O Ferries

British Chambers of Commerce survey suggests inflation surge will escalate further in coming monthsMore UK businesses are preparing to raise prices than at any time since the 1980s, heaping further pressure on hard-pressed consumers amid recent increases in gas, electricity and petrol prices.The British Chambers of Commerce said its latest quarterly survey found almost two-thirds of firms expected to raise prices over the next three months, the highest since the survey began in 1989. Continue reading...

Customers try to beat 54% price rise, as multiple hikes from council tax to VAT on pub food also come into effectMillions of households faced chaos on Thursday as the websites of the major energy providers crashed after being overwhelmed by a flood of customers rushing to secure cheaper bills ahead of Friday’s massive hike in prices.Panicked customers rushed to submit meter readings, responding to advice to ensure they got a cheaper rate for energy right up until the end of the day. Continue reading...

Dr Nathalie MacDermott says policymakers are not accounting for condition that will be ‘our downfall’The UK will pay an economic price for failing to consider long Covid when lifting restrictions and making recommendations on vaccinations for children, a doctor has warned.The decision to drop all Covid rules in England was largely based on whether the NHS could handle the number of sick patients, but far more people are expected to develop long-term medical problems after fighting off the virus. Continue reading...

Upward revision in annual GDP growth, despite Omicron denting output over ChristmasThe UK economy was only 0.1% below pre-pandemic levels after growing faster than previously thought at the end of 2021 because of a rush of coronavirus test-and-trace activities, the latest official data has shown.UK economic output grew by 1.3% from October to December, compared with an initial estimate of 1%, despite the Omicron variant denting output over Christmas, the Office for National Statistics said on Thursday. Continue reading...

Plan could be extended to include exports of oil, grain, fertilisers, coal, metals and other key commodities

34% of those feeling the pinch report using less gas and electricity and 31% are spending less on foodConsumers have begun cutting back on food spending and reduced their use of gas and electricity at home, as more people report rising living costs and concern grows about the impact of soaring prices on the poorest households in Britain.According to an extensive survey of more than 13,000 adults in Great Britain, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said as many as 83% saw an increase in their cost of living this month, up from 62% in November. Continue reading...

Rising energy bills, food and transport costs are set to plunge many families into the redThe UK’s poorest families will see the amount of spare cash at their disposal drop by a fifth this year with £850 less to spend on non-essentials as shop prices hit a decade high.Pressure on family budgets is tightening as grocery price inflation reached 5.2% in March, the highest level since April 2012, according to the latest figures from market analysts Kantar. Continue reading...

Concerns that low-income households are turning to expensive forms of lending as inflation soarsA surge in credit card borrowing to a record high last month has prompted concerns that low-income households are turning to expensive forms of lending to cope with rising costs of food, clothing and fuel.Figures from the Bank of England showed credit card borrowing jumped by £1.5bn in February to £59.5bn – the highest since records began in 1993 – pushing the total amount of unsecured lending up by 90% on the prior month to £1.9bn. Continue reading...

Sunak veered from the fantasy that he was cutting taxes to cold hard reality when admitting Brexit has made the UK poorerRemember the happy clappy Rishi Sunak? The caring Dishy Rishi? The chancellor who could look lovingly into the camera at Downing Street press conferences and promise that he would have our backs? Always. The Good Samaritan who smiled as he dug deep behind the sofa to pay our wages when our employers could not?That Sunak is long gone. The new Rishi is a far snippier iteration. Someone who walks out of interviews when he doesn’t like the questions. Someone who is visibly irritated to have been forced to fill in a police questionnaire about the birthday party of a boss he cannot stand – and who cannot stand him; the dislike is mutual. Someone who is beginning to realise he might just have missed the boat. Continue reading...

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UK government sells more of stake in group formerly known as Royal Bank of Scotland at a loss over 2008 priceNatWest Group has returned to majority private ownership after it agreed to buy back £1.2bn of shares from the UK government, more than 13 years after the company was bailed out by taxpayers at the height of the financial crisis.The company, formerly known as Royal Bank of Scotland Group (RBS), said it had agreed to make an off-market purchase of 550m shares, or 4.91% of its share capital, from HM Treasury at Friday’s closing price of 220.5p, in a statement to the stock market on Monday. Continue reading...

Consumers and businesses will come under severe pressure from cost of living squeeze, says governorBritain’s economy is expected to suffer a growth slowdown amid the biggest single shock from energy prices since the 1970s, the governor of the Bank of England has warned.Andrew Bailey said there were signs of slowing demand from consumers and businesses as they come under heavy pressure from the cost of living squeeze, with soaring prices for gas, electricity and other goods and services. Continue reading...

Cooking veg with less energy | Rich rewards for those at the top | From Vlad to Vlod? | Tea service at the cinema | Ferry sackingsRe your article (Food bank users declining potatoes as cooking costs too high, says Iceland boss, 23 March), local authorities should provide a microwave for people in receipt of help from food banks. A few minutes in a microwave is long enough to cook most vegetables, and retains the goodness that is leached out in a pot of boiling water.

A decade of austerity swung opinion behind state intervention, while work is no longer a guarantee to lift people out of povertyWhere did it all go wrong for Rishi Sunak? The most popular chancellor in four decades now pilloried for a spring statement which failed to meet the challenge of the worst hit to living standards since the Suez crisis.Attacked for promising tax cuts while stealthily driving up the tax burden to the highest level since Clement Attlee was prime minister in the late 1940s, criticised for putting Instagram moments ahead of the serious task at hand, here was an out-of-touch ivory tower politician who would allow living costs to rise faster than pensions and benefits. It was the mini-budget to please no one. Continue reading...

Critics of UK chancellor’s spring statement say it prioritises debt reduction and fails to provide support to lower-income households• Budget calculator: how will your income change?Rishi Sunak has battled to protect the Treasury from rising prices while allowing inflation to ravage the finances of low and middle-income households. That is the accusation levelled at the chancellor after a spring budget statement that put government debt reduction ahead of calls for extra welfare support for hard-pressed families.Sunak’s dilemma, as inflation heads towards 8% and possibly beyond, is whether he can afford to increase the Treasury’s outlay on welfare and public services, including public sector pay. Continue reading...

The chancellor is keen to show he’s a tax cutter, but with war and the aftermath of Covid, who will believe his 1p reduction is in any way affordable?Rishi Sunak has put in place one of the essential building blocks of a Tory victory at the next general election – a cut in income tax. During his Commons speech last week, the chancellor was cheered by backbench Conservatives, who believe the promise of a 1p cut in the basic rate to 19p before the likely date in 2024 would improve their chances of re-election.But Sunak, always keen to portray himself as a tax cutter at heart, came in for ridicule once independent figures showed that the average household would pay more tax in two years’ time, even with the 1p reduction in place. That will be ensured by next month’s rise in national insurance contributions and a four-year freeze on personal tax thresholds, which means more earned income is subject to tax. Continue reading...

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My father, Frederick David, who has died aged 97, was a Holocaust refugee from Vienna who arrived in 1939 in London, the city that became his home. He trained as an economist, joining the manufacturing and distribution company Bunzl where, by the time of his retirement in 1988, he was managing director.Frederick – known as Friedl – was raised in Josefstadt in central Vienna. The son of Hugo David and Gertrud Spitzer, Friedl grew up in a large family of aunts and uncles – a colourful parade of eccentrics he would describe with customary wit. His family knew many of the celebrated Viennese artists of the time, including Gustav Klimt, Oskar Kokoschka and Egon Schiele, through his great-great uncle Alfred Spitzer, their lawyer. Continue reading...

Experts say absolute poverty could hit a fifth of UK population following chancellor’s mini-budgetRishi Sunak has sought to defend his mini-budget against accusations he failed to shield Britain’s poorest families from the worst hit to living standards in six decades, as economists warned 1.3 million people will fall into absolute poverty next year.Amid heavy criticism of Wednesday’s spring statement from opposition leaders and his own back benches, experts from the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) and Resolution Foundation thinktanks said the chancellor could have done more to help those most at need. Continue reading...

Analysis: Britain has ceased to be a country where workers can expect to get better off year after year

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As households face the biggest drop in living standards since the 1950s, five images show the scale of the cost of living crisis

Labour asks if Boris Johnson was playing ‘fast and loose with the truth’ over his threat to to take P&O Ferries to court. For the latest on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, please follow our dedicated live blog

Exclusive: Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala says impact of conflict on food prices and hunger could be substantial

Services sector growing rapidly after Covid disruption but manufacturing slips as Ukraine invasion dents optimismBritain’s recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic is being put at risk by the escalating price pressures and blow to business confidence caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the latest snapshot of the economy has shown.The flash estimate of activity from S&P Global and the Chartered Institute of Procurement and Supply (Cips) found the UK’s service sector growing rapidly but optimism about the future at its weakest in almost 18 months. Continue reading...

Resolution Foundation says it will be first large increase in number of people pushed into poverty outside of a recessionRishi Sunak’s spring statement will push 1.3 million people – including half a million children – below the poverty line next year while raising tax to the highest level since the second world war, according to leading economists.The chancellor’s spring statement on Wednesday offered some tax cuts, such as 5p-a-litre off fuel duty and a £3,000 increase in the threshold for national insurance contributions, but came in for widespread criticism for failing to support poorer families and other vulnerable groups from the soaring cost of living. Continue reading...

Chancellor responds to highest inflation in three decades with lower fuel duty and vow to cut income tax

Faced with runaway food and energy bills, people in work and retirement see little relief in chancellor’s tweaks to NI and fuel duty