by Presented by Heather Stewart, with Richard Parting on (#5EWZ1)
Heather Stewart and Richard Partington run through the main budget headlines. Andrew Gimson and Nicola McEwen discuss the state of the union. Plus, Steven Morris speaks to Peter Robertson about how the Welsh food and drink industry has coped since BrexitToday Rishi Sunak presented his much-awaited budget in the House of Commons. Boris Johnson looked on from the front benches. All the while the rather important issue of keeping the union together will have been playing on his mind.In Wales, Brexit is impacting the way food producers can trade with the EU, and Pete Robertson, who heads the Food and Drinks Federation knows more than most. He speaks to Steven Morris about why it’s easier for the EU to import lamb from New Zealand, than it is from Wales at the moment. Continue reading...
Government’s independent forecaster also says Covid crisis will cost equivalent of £14,000 for every householdBritain’s economic growth will accelerate next year at the fastest rate since official records began as the economy rebounds by 7.3%, according to the government’s independent economic forecaster.With Covid restrictions set to remain until the summer, delaying the start of the recovery, the Office for Budget Responsibility said the economy would surge ahead in 2022 at the fastest pace since 1948. Continue reading...
Analysis: Not quite the ‘same old Tories’, but ‘levelling up’ clearly has a narrow meaning for the chancellorRishi Sunak both is, and isn’t, a typical Tory: he’s an extravagantly rich, public school-educated former hedge fund manager; but also a coke-swigging Star Wars fan with a slick Twitter game who works from home in a hoodie. And his budget on Wednesday was, and wasn’t, a typical Tory budget.Labour has repeatedly accused the Conservatives in recent weeks of wanting to return to “business as usual”. But the political and economic terrain has been changed dramatically by the past 12 months, in ways that are likely to be long-lasting. Continue reading...
by Gaby Hinsliff, Miatta Fahnbulleh, Katy Balls and T on (#5EWJD)
The chancellor set out his roadmap for Britain’s economic recovery, but will it be enough? Our experts give their viewGaby Hinsliff is a Guardian columnistMiatta Fahnbulleh is chief executive of the New Economics FoundationKaty Balls is the Spectator’s deputy political editorTom Kibasi is a writer and researcher, and a former director of the Institute for Public Policy Research Continue reading...
Firms planning to expand despite being hit by Brexit port delays and falling orders due to CovidOptimism across the services sector improved for the fourth consecutive month in February to its highest level since 2006, reflecting hopes that the Covid-19 vaccine rollout will lead to a strong economic rebound.The IHS Markit survey found that business leaders were planning to expand their activities over the next 12 months despite several months of falling orders during the UK’s third lockdown and port delays after the Brexit trade deal was reached with the EU in December. Continue reading...
Millions in precarious jobs are betting scant savings on worthless stocks and cryptocurrencies via share-dealing appsThe US economy’s K-shaped recovery is under way. Those with stable full-time jobs, benefits, and a financial cushion are faring well as stock markets climb to new highs. Those who are unemployed or partially employed in low-value-added blue-collar and service jobs – the new “precariat” – are saddled with debt, have little financial wealth, and face diminishing economic prospects.These trends indicate a growing disconnect between Wall Street and Main Street. The new stock market highs mean nothing to most people. The bottom 50% of the wealth distribution holds just 0.7% of total equity market assets, whereas the top 10% commands 87.2%, and the top 1% holds 51.8%. The 50 richest people have as much wealth as the 165 million people at the bottom.Related: Wall Street versus the Redditors: the GameStop goldrush – podcastRelated: Why the GameStop affair is a perfect example of 'platform populism' | Evgeny MorozovRelated: The GameStop affair is like tulip mania on steroids | Dan Davies Continue reading...
by Richard Partington Economics correspondent on (#5EVJG)
Analysis: the five key charts which underpin chancellor Rishi Sunak’s budget planThe UK economy is at a pivotal moment, as the chancellor gives his budget speech with businesses and workers under the most pressure since the pandemic struck a year ago.Here are five key charts that will underpin Rishi Sunak’s statement on Wednesday afternoon. Continue reading...
But chancellor will tell MPs that historic tax and spending support will end as soon as UK plc emerges from Covid crisisRishi Sunak will use tomorrow’s budget to signal that the government’s unprecedented and continuing support for jobs and businesses must end once the economy has emerged from the Covid-19 pandemic.The chancellor will pledge to use all the tax and spending firepower at the government’s disposal to limit joblessness and business failures as the UK gradually lifts the restrictions that have left the economy almost 10% smaller than it was a year ago. Continue reading...
Northern MPs tell chancellor his budget should protect high street and tax online retailers such as AmazonRishi Sunak is under increasing pressure from Conservative “red wall” MPs to go beyond existing support for the UK economy in Wednesday’s budget and cut taxes for thousands of retailers.MPs across the political spectrum are increasingly uneasy that he may introduce income tax rises for middle earners, and the chancellor is facing calls from 45 northern Tories to make “a bold move to reduce business rates”.Related: Sunak 's budget must place economic needs above party politics | Larry Elliott Continue reading...
The tax break on house purchases saw prices rise by 8.5% – but is it really the best way to address the housing shortage?Reports last week that the stamp duty holiday in England and Northern Ireland is to be extended were met with unsurprisingly little consternation, surprisingly. I mean that I wasn’t surprised by the lack of consternation which, on reflection, was surprising. Can you be surprised on reflection, or just by a reflection because you haven’t had a haircut since October? I think you can. It was a gradual, creeping surprise that stole through me gingerly, like a presentiment of diarrhoea.People don’t like stamp duty, because it makes the surreal sums involved in procuring shelter significantly more eye-watering. Still, isn’t it a bit nuts, when you think about it, extending the stamp duty holiday? The country isn’t made of money. Except it sort of is made of money because the property here is worth so much. Particularly in the south-east, but in Britain generally, houses cost too much. And, thanks to the stamp duty holiday, UK prices rose last year by 8.5%. That’s while most of the economy was somewhere on a scale from lightly to totally screwed.I, like all loyal Britons, swell with pride that our property market has become the repository of choice for Russian oligarchs’ ill-gotten wealth Continue reading...
Rishi Sunak rejects comparisons between himself and George Osborne. But the view from local government is very differentThere are plenty of ways to measure austerity. Before, during and after the budget this week, voters will hear Rishi Sunak herald the end of tight spending as the government builds a bridge from the pandemic to a glorious recovery.What economists do when they want to kick the tyres on such claims is look at the Treasury’s books. They want to see whether public spending is contracting or expanding. And if there is a squeeze, we can be said to be living in a period of austerity.Even in affluent Surrey, Tory councillors have had to cut children’s centres from 58 to 21 to balance the books Continue reading...
Treasury says low-deposit mortgages have virtually disappeared since 2008 financial crisisThe chancellor is expected to unveil a mortgage guarantee scheme that aims to help first-time buyers get their foot on the property ladder in next week’s budget.Rishi Sunak is attempting to incentivise lenders to provide mortgages to first-time buyers, along with current homeowners, with deposits as low as 5% on properties worth up to £600,000. The government will offer lenders the guarantee they need to provide mortgages covering the remaining 95%, with details set to be unveiled on Wednesday.Related: Sunak to use budget to start repairing UK's public finances Continue reading...
by Daniel Strauss in Washington and agencies on (#5EPP7)
Relief bill represents Biden’s first big legislative win but wage hike proposal to be removed from Senate versionThe US House of Representatives has passed Joe Biden’s $1.9tn coronavirus aid bill in his first major legislative victory.Related: Criticism builds over Biden's failure to lift Trump sanctions on ICC prosecutors Continue reading...
by Phillip Inman and Richard Partington on (#5EQG8)
Expect measures to help economic recovery but watch out for capital gains tax and other tax risesRishi Sunak’s budget on 3 March is set to unveil a range of measures to help support the recovery of the UK economy, but tax rises are in the offing too. Here is what we can expect.Related: Few budgets really matter, but this one does: Sunak must keep splashing the cash | Larry Elliott Continue reading...
Corporation tax and capital gains tax expected to rise as chancellor begins huge task of repaying Covid debtRishi Sunak will use the volatility in global financial markets to ram home a budget message next week that immediate action is needed to repair the damage to the public finances caused by the Covid-19 pandemic.Despite the deep downturn caused by the third nationwide lockdown in England, the chancellor – who has been closely monitoring market moves – will announce the first steps towards reducing the biggest peacetime deficit in Britain’s history.Related: Few budgets really matter, but this one does: Sunak must keep splashing the cash | Larry ElliottRelated: Never mind about the economy, Britain has a new luxury brand – Rishi Sunak | Marina Hyde Continue reading...
UK FTSE was down 2.5%, its biggest one-day fall in percentage terms since the end of OctoberGlobal stock markets ended February deep in the red, as fears of higher inflation prompted a sell-off in government bonds and spread anxiety across financial markets.The UK’s FTSE 100 index fell 168 points to 6,483, a 2.5% drop – the biggest one-day fall in percentage terms since the end of October. Continue reading...
Andy Haldane says there is a danger of central bank complacency letting ‘tiger’ out of the bagCentral bank complacency risks letting the “inflation tiger” out of the bag, a senior Bank of England policymaker has said.Adding to market jitters about the resurgence of price pressures as the global economy recovers from the Covid-19 pandemic, Andy Haldane said borrowing costs could need to go up sooner than the City expected to tame the inflationary threat. Continue reading...
The burden to pay for people in retirement is too great on those facing debt, job insecurity and an uncertain futureCovid-19 continues to bring many inter-generational tensions to the fore. Older people bear the brunt of the disease’s impact on health; younger people have to make economic and social sacrifices to protect them. But the pandemic is just one reason why the social contract between the generations is under pressure.Within families, the social contract between the generations is easy to understand. Parents want to give their children the capabilities and means to have a good life; children want their parents to have a comfortable old age. But at a societal level, the social contract between the generations is more complex. The legacy we leave to future generations has many dimensions – the stock of human knowledge and culture, inventions, infrastructure and institutions, and the state of the natural world. We owe a great deal to previous generations and most would agree that we also owe something to future generations we will never meet, and that each generation should leave the next at least as well off, and preferably better off than they were.Related: Millennials are struggling. Is it the fault of the baby boomers?Related: Covid jobs crisis could have lasting impact on young people's pensions Continue reading...
by Presented by Jessica Elgot, with Polly Toynbee, La on (#5EKYR)
Jessica Elgot and Polly Toynbee discuss the government’s latest plans to exit lockdown. Richard Partington and Charlotte Alldritt look ahead to next week’s budget, and Larry Elliott and Katy Balls discuss the man behind the budget, Rishi Sunak.The prime minister announced four phases to get England out of lockdown on Monday. Has the government finally struck a safe balance?Plus, as we gear up to hear the budget next Wednesday. We look at how Rishi Sunak can make sure it’s inclusive enough to keep it in line with his party’s plan to level up the country. Continue reading...
UK sectors hit hardest by lockdown show sharp rise as big tech shares fall on Wall StreetUK travel and hospitality companies set to benefit from the easing of Covid restrictions rallied on the London stock market after Boris Johnson set out the government’s roadmap for ending lockdown in England.Against a backdrop of rising hopes for a rapid economic recovery from the worst recession for more than 300 years, shares in companies among those hardest hit by lockdown, including airlines, travel firms and operators of retail, food and drink outlets at train stations, recorded the biggest gains amid growing hopes for a fast return to relative normality.Related: Boris Johnson 'very optimistic' all Covid restrictions will end on 21 June Continue reading...
The government must not allow an even more divided society to emerge post-pandemicIt was John Maynard Keynes who developed the idea of “animal spirits” as a kind of spontaneous market optimism, or pessimism, which lent a crucial emotional dimension to economic outcomes. The unveiling of Boris Johnson’s roadmap out of social restrictions was accompanied by a glimpse of how they might play out in a Covid context.As people rushed to bet on the possibility of taking a foreign holiday in July or August, easyJet was among the top risers on the FTSE 250 on Tuesday, reporting a 337% leap in bookings. Shares in the long-suffering hospitality and entertainment industries jumped too. Vaccine rollout and the prime minister’s roadmap have understandably persuaded the population that a definitive exit from lockdown purdah is at hand. For its part, the government, quite reasonably, believes that the release of pent-up consumer energy will fuel a significant post-pandemic recovery. Last week’s UK consumer confidence index was sufficiently buoyant to lead analysts to talk of a “return to normality” in the coming year. Continue reading...
Analysis: firms are adding to their payrolls, but the real test will come when the Covid furlough scheme endsOn one reading of the latest unemployment figures, the UK labour market is in pretty good shape. The number of people being added to payrolls is going up and so is the number of job vacancies. Annual earnings growth is up sharply to 4.7%.An alternative reading is that the jobless total is going up along with the redundancy rate, while the number of people employed is going down.Related: UK unemployment rises to 5.1% as Covid lockdown freezes economy Continue reading...