by Richard Partington Economics correspondent on (#5AEBC)
Academics call for urgent changes to Bank’s mandate to help UK hit carbon zero targetUrgent reforms of the Bank of England are needed to help decarbonise the financial system and boost green investment as Britain recovers from the Covid-19 pandemic, a group of leading academics has said.The New Economics Foundation thinktank and Positive Money campaign group said landmark changes needed to be made by the government to give Threadneedle Street more powers to cut carbon emissions.Related: No 10 and Treasury clash over spending on environmental agenda Continue reading...
There has been a surprising lack of volatility during the pandemic and US election, but this could changeWith alternative assets such as gold and Bitcoin thriving in the pandemic, some top economists are predicting a sharp fall in the US dollar. This could yet happen. But so far, despite inconsistent US management of the pandemic, massive deficit spending for economic catastrophe relief, and monetary easing that the Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell says has “crossed a lot of red lines”, core dollar exchange rates have been eerily calm. Even the ongoing election drama has not had much impact. Traders and journalists may be getting worked up about the greenback’s daily travails, but for those of us who study longer-term exchange-rate trends, their reactions to date amount to much ado about nothing.To be sure, the euro has appreciated by roughly 6% against the dollar so far in 2020, but that is peanuts compared with the wild gyrations that took place after the 2008 financial crisis, when the dollar fluctuated between $1.58 and $1.07 to the euro. Similarly, the yen-dollar exchange rate has hardly moved during the pandemic, but varied between ¥90 and ¥123 to the dollar in the great recession. And a broad dollar exchange-rate index against all US trading partners is currently sitting at roughly its mid-February level.Related: Markets boosted by Japan's 'Zoom boom' recovery and vaccine hopes – business live Continue reading...
Pandemic highlights big gap between what Covid restrictions we support and whether we actually abide by themAnyone tuning in early on Halloween to see the Strictly contestants strut their stuff would have found themselves watching the prime minister giving a press conference from Downing Street.Boris Johnson had his serious face on and little wonder because he was telling people in England that a fresh four-week lockdown was coming. To give the gloomy message extra weight, he was flanked by his chief medical officer and his chief scientific officer.New national restrictions are due to come into effect in England on Thursday, after MPs vote on them, and remain in place at least until 2 December. Continue reading...
No sane government would contemplate a future without a proper deal with the EUBritish business and finance are holding their breath. Few can quite believe that a British government could drive the British economy this close to the brink. Surely no sane government, entrusted with our collective wellbeing, could calmly contemplate imposing on its citizens immense trade disruption, transport chaos, shortages in medicine, fresh foods and key technologies? Then there’s the rise in unemployment created by two lockdowns and widespread bankruptcies. Even a minimalist deal, as John Major said last week, will be far more brutal than anyone expects.Yet for what? A utopian conception of sovereignty that even in the full flush of empire never held true? Surely rationality must prevail and a deal that goes well beyond the skinny Canada-style deal with the EU – which Boris Johnson says is all he wants – will be struck?Related: Downing Street denies internal crisis has harmed Brexit talks Continue reading...
Politically and medically, the world is changing fast: but a chaotic No 10 ploughs unheedingly along the path to departureEver since the end of the second world war, British governments of both major parties have aimed, in their own way, to improve the standard of living of the people. This apology for a Tory government, headed by Boris Johnson, is the first to make it an object of economic policy to make the country poorer.But before we get into the almighty cock-up that is Brexit, let us at least welcome the good news about the victory of president-elect Joseph Biden, and the apparent breakthrough in the search for an effective vaccine to fight Covid-19.The evidence is mounting of impending chaos at the docks, disruption to supply lines and shortages of goodness knows what essential goods Continue reading...
He must reassure the country that austerity will not return: a tax on property assets, however unpopular, would be an answerIt is clear from Rishi Sunak’s recent statements that he wants to defer any talk of tax rises until at least next year. The chancellor is minded to ignore the pressure from many of his own backbenchers to deal with the government’s spending deficit while the health crisis is still in full swing.And he can feel comfortable that his stance has broad support following assessments by the International Monetary Fund and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, both of which have backed unrestrained Covid-19 spending.Deutsche Bank proposed making staff pay 5% tax for each day they work remotely as a way to rebuild the public finances Continue reading...
News of potentially effective vaccine helps persuade politicians to keep policies to prevent lay offs and bankruptciesThe timing could hardly have been better. In the week that the daily number of US Covid-19 cases relentlessly hit new records and just days after England followed much of the rest of Europe into lockdown, Pfizer and BioNTech announced their vaccine was 90% effective against the virus.The news came too late to prevent a new hit to growth in the final three months of 2020. Nor will it be enough to prevent the central banks in the US and the eurozone from piling in with fresh stimulus packages in the weeks to come. Continue reading...
Retailers blame surge in Christmas imports, Brexit preparations and vast backlog of NHS equipment at FelixstoweRetailers are warning a logjam at the country’s biggest container port could result in product shortages this Christmas, as it emerged 11,000 containers of government-procured PPE is clogging up Felixstowe.Congestion at Felixstowe is a problem for the whole country as the Suffolk port handles approximately 40% of all the containers coming into and out of the UK. Continue reading...
Rolling coverage of the latest business and markets news, as rising Covid cases overshadowed enthusiasm for a vaccine3.02pm GMT2.48pm GMTUS regulator the Securities and Exchange Commission has charged the ex-Wells Fargo chief executive John Stumpf for his role in misleading investors about the success of its core business.He’s agreed to pay $2.5m to settle the charges.2.32pm GMTWall Street is open for trading and stocks are broadly higher:1.41pm GMTThe FCA is not getting much applause for its proposed censure of Carillion and its warning to executives- at least not from Prem Sikka, professor of accounting at the University of Sheffield and emeritus professor at the University of Essex:Need evidence of UK regulatory failure? Look no further than Carillion collapse. Thousands lost jobs, savings, pensions. After nearly 2 yrs, the FCA censures directors, no financial penalty. That is not a deterrent . FCA is unfit to be a regulator.https://t.co/EkXERsoV1i1.35pm GMTDATA FLASH: The US producer price index (PPI) for October rose 0.5% year-on-year.That is higher than economist expectations for a 0.4% rise.1.23pm GMTDespite a pullback today, the London stock market is heading for its best week since April amid rising hopes that a coronavirus vaccine can trigger a faster economic revival from the pandemic than first anticipated.The FTSE 100 index of leading UK company shares is on track to end the week more than 300 points higher, a rise of almost 7%, despite a modest sell-off on Friday as City investors bet it would still take time to deploy the vaccine and for Britain’s economy to stage a full recovery.Related: FTSE 100 set for best week since April as Covid vaccine triggers hopes for economy12.56pm GMTBREAKING: Spanish bank Santander is set to cut 4,000 jobs in Spain and cut around 1,000 branches.That’s according to Reuters, citing local news agency EFE.12.32pm GMTPrime minister Boris Johnson’s spokesman has confirmed that Brexit talks will be paused over the weekend but will resume in Brussels net week, according to Reuters.The spokesman added that familiar differences remain in EU trade talks over a level playing field and fisheries.Related: Brexit standoff blamed on No 10 infighting over Cummings' departure12.16pm GMTTesco has apologised after its grocery website was overwhelmed with shoppers trying to book delivery slots for Christmas.
GDP recovery could have been stronger with better planned job support and consistent messaging, say unions and firmsThe bounceback in the UK economy in the third quarter was record breaking, but the response from business groups, trade unions and many economists was that it might have been so much stronger.If only the government had signalled in July it would keep the furlough scheme in place until next March, as it was subsequently forced to do.Gross domestic product (GDP) measures the total value of activity in the economy over a given period of time. Continue reading...
Growth surge follows easing of first lockdown but ONS data reveals recovery slowing fastBritain’s economy grew at a record quarterly rate of more than 15% as lockdown restrictions were eased in the summer but the recovery was losing momentum even before new curbs came in, the latest official figures have revealed.Data from the Office for National Statistics showed that national output expanded by just 1.1% in September – the last month before fresh action was taken to limit the spread of Covid-19.Gross domestic product (GDP) measures the total value of activity in the economy over a given period of time. Continue reading...
Household borrowing and arrears linked to pandemic have soared to £10.3bnBritain is “sleepwalking into a debt crisis” after a steep rise in emergency borrowing by low- and middle-income households to cope with the Covid-19 jobs crisis.Research by the debt charity Stepchange found that household borrowing and arrears linked to the coronavirus pandemic have soared 66% since May to £10.3bn. The number of people who are in severe debt has risen to 1.2 million – nearly doubling since March – with a further 3 million people at risk of falling into arrears after taking on extra short-term loans.Related: Financial first aid: how to make it through the second Covid lockdown Continue reading...
by Richard Partington and Patrick Collinson on (#5A8MK)
Report commissioned by Rishi Sunak recommends tax raid that could raise up to £14bnA tax raid on buy-to-let properties and other forms of wealth could raise up to £14bn to help repair the government’s battered finances, after a report commissioned by the chancellor recommended a major overhaul of capital gains tax.Flagging a tax squeeze on the well-off to help pay for coronavirus, the maximum capital gains tax (CGT) rate of 28% could be raised by Rishi Sunak closer to income tax rates, where the top rates are 40% and 45% in England and Wales.Related: UK recession fears and rivalries take the shine off Rishi SunakRelated: Sunak now prefers risk of doing too much to risk of doing too little Continue reading...
HBOS whistleblower who had warned against its unsustainable lending and the sale of financial products such as PPIIn the years leading up to the economic crisis of 2007-08 few challenges were made to excessive and opportunistic financial activity and since then few individuals have been called to account for the damage it caused. Paul Moore, who has died aged 61 of colitis, set in train a rare whistleblowing reproach to bankers whose laxness led to incalculable harm and misery.As head of group regulatory risk at HBOS, which came into being with the merger of Halifax and the Bank of Scotland in 2001, Moore had oversight responsibility for the bank’s compliance with the Financial Services Authority regulations. Continue reading...
The president-elect can learn from Franklin D Roosevelt’s response to Herbert HooverPresidential transitions are never easy, especially when they involve an incumbent president defeated at the polls. But this time the transition occurs in the midst of an unprecedented crisis. The incumbent refuses to acknowledge the vote as a rejection of his policies and has a visceral dislike for the president-elect, whom he accuses of dishonesty and dismisses as too frail to assume the duties of office. He tars his successor as a socialist, an advocate of policies that will put the country on the road to ruin.The year was 1932, and the transition from Herbert Hoover to Franklin D Roosevelt occurred in the midst of an unparalleled economic depression and banking crisis. The outgoing president, Hoover, had an intense aversion to his successor, whose incapacity of concern was not any lack of mental acuity, but rather Roosevelt’s partial paralysis. He called FDR a “chameleon on plaid” and accused him of dealing “from the bottom of the deck”. In his campaign and subsequently, Hoover insinuated that FDR’s socialistic tendencies would put the country on a “march to Moscow”.Related: Donald Trump’s refusal to concede sparks transition sabotage fears Continue reading...
by Miles Brignall and Rebecca Smithers, talking to So on (#5A4GF)
The Guardian’s advice team share their advice for readers navigating the consumer rights jungle created by the pandemicCoronavirus has proved to be a disaster for consumer rights in the UK, as the airlines, travel firms, and some insurers have behaved as if they were above the law. Even to a seasoned consumer champ it’s been shocking. It’s been interesting to see how different companies in the same boat have reacted to the crisis. Some refused to engage with their customers at all, removing all email and phone contacts from their websites, while others pulled out the stops to try to help customers. Consumers have long memories, and when this all settles down, some firms may find they no longer have much business left.Some of the bank fraud cases we have featured have seen the reader lose in excess of £70,000 Continue reading...
by Fiona Harvey Environment correspondent on (#5A4GG)
In wake of Covid, leading figures call for bold green measures to boost economyWorld leaders are running out of time to forge a green recovery from the Covid-19 crisis, with only a year to go before a crunch UN summit that will decide the future of the global climate, leading experts have warned.Progress on a green recovery, which would reduce emissions while repairing the damage from the pandemic, has been hampered by the need for an emergency rescue of stricken economies around the world and the resurgence of the coronavirus in Europe, the US and some other countries.On Thursday 12 November, join Guardian environment journalist Fiona Harvey for a livestreamed Guardian Live discussion on the climate emergency with Particia Espinosa, Nigel Topping and Nisreen Elsaim. Buy tickets here Continue reading...
Nigeria’s Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala had been expected to be confirmed as leader on MondayThe race to find a new leader of the World Trade Organization has been thrown into renewed uncertainty after the cancellation of a key appointment meeting following the US presidential election.The Geneva-based WTO, which acts as an international arbiter for trading disputes, said it had put off a meeting scheduled for Monday that had been called to appoint Nigeria’s Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala as its next director general. Continue reading...
The president-elect is unlikely to buy the argument that he should have been more radicalIn the end, for the Democrats it was a case of euphoria mingled with relief. Relief that they had not managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Relief that the president’s lies about electoral fraud failed to gain traction. Relief that Donald Trump’s days in the White House are now numbered.But really, it should not even have been close. There may have been worse presidents than the one Joe Biden has defeated but off hand it is hard to name one. A disastrous last year means Trump is on course to be the first occupant of the White House since the second world war to preside over a net loss of jobs. When Herbert Hoover did that during the Great Depression he won only six states in the 1932 election and secured less than 40% of the vote. Continue reading...
Thursday’s economic data will be lifted by ‘eat out to help out’ – but critics say it led to a Covid surge that will hit future growthRishi Sunak’s popular “eat out to help out” scheme will be remembered in this week’s publication of third-quarter GDP figures for the major boost it gave Britain’s pub and restaurant trade.In the August rush to grab a discount dinner it seemed like every table in every hospitality venue in the country was booked between Monday and Wednesday, and analysts believe that underpinned a rise in consumer confidence and with it GDP, the measure of national income, between July and September. Continue reading...
Trump may not have carried all before him, but in times of fear and inequality, his ideas still resonate – and not just in the USPlacards adorned with the slogans “America First” and “Make America Great Again” are destined for landfill now that the trap door of American politics has opened under Donald Trump’s feet. Some will put them aside for a possible return of “the Donald” in 2024 – should he avoid scrutiny over allegedly fraudulent tax returns, and should the Republican party back him again. Otherwise, millions of dollars of election paraphernalia are destined for the bin.Yet a widespread belief that a change of guard at the White House means the yearning behind the slogans will disappear is naive. Every developed country has its version of America First, not least the UK. After all, what is Brexit if not a demand to put Britain first?Rising prices and increasing automation make ordinary families panic about their ability to better themselves Continue reading...
Biden plans to push through aid stimulus amid the pandemic, undo Trump’s corporate tax cuts, and crack down on big techWhen Joe Biden enters the White House on 20 January, he will face arguably the biggest set of challenges a president has had to tackle since the end of the second world war. The coronavirus is raging through the US, millions of Americans are still losing their jobs each month, and the climate crisis – ignored by the Trump administration – is deepening.Biden has set out his economic and policy plans, but without control of the Senate he may struggle to realise them. Official GDP figures for the third quarter showed the size of the economy was still almost 4% below its previous peak, despite a 7.4% recovery from the spring lockdown.Ensuring the US achieves a 100% clean energy economy by 2035 and reaches net-zero emissions no later than 2050.Overhauling US infrastructure to ensure that buildings, water, transportation and energy infrastructure can withstand the impacts of climate change.Rejoining the Paris agreement on climate change and rallying world leaders to address the issue.Tackling polluters and others whose actions have disproportionately affected low-income communities and people of color.Raise the corporate tax rate to 28%, from 21%.Impose a minimum tax on all foreign earnings of US companies located overseas in an attempt to stop the use of foreign tax havens.Penalize corporations that ship jobs overseas.Raise the top individual income rate back to 39.6% and force those making more than $1m a year to pay the same rate on investment income that they do on their wages.Only increase taxes on those earning over $400,000 a year.Yeah, i don’t want to be 20cent. 62% is a very, very,bad idea. i don’t like it ! #abcforlife nov 18 #starzgettheapp pic.twitter.com/y9TsSs0o6Q Continue reading...
Spending watchdog claims ports and businesses are not ready for 1 January, with Northern Ireland a big concernBillions of pounds worth of trade with the European Union will face “significant disruption” on 1 January, regardless of whether a trade deal is agreed, Whitehall’s spending watchdog has concluded.The National Audit Office (NAO) said crucial IT systems have yet to be tested and transit areas for lorries are not ready as the government attempts to prepare new border controls for the end of the Brexit transition period. The planned controls, which had already been rated “high risk”, have been further hampered by the coronavirus pandemic, according to a report released today.Related: Plant inspectors and rising prices: UK garden industry set for Brexit shock Continue reading...
The chancellor has announced that the government will extend the UK's furlough scheme until March as the second wave of Covid-19 infections and new lockdown threaten to push up unemployment. In a major climbdown, Rishi Sunak said the Treasury would continue to pay 80% of workers’ wages
by Richard Partington and Heather Stewart on (#59ZTC)
Latest U-turn follows growing pressure for more support to protect jobs and the economy as second wave hitsRishi Sunak has been forced into a U-turn over the government’s flagship job support scheme as he announced an extension of the furlough programme until March next year.In a major climbdown for the government, the chancellor said the Treasury would allow the scheme to run for a full year by continuing to pay 80% of temporarily laid-off workers’ wages until 31 March. Sunak also announced an expansion in funding for self-employed workers from November to January, in an announcement that indicated a difficult winter ahead as the government confirmed that economic support would run well into next year.Taken aback by ChX statement.
Investors think that the Democrat could be hamstrung by the Senate and unable to pass stimulus, meaning a better outlook for tech and health stocksShares in Asia Pacific have climbed to their highest point for nearly three years as Joe Biden edged closer to becoming the next president of the United States.As the Democrat challenger sought the remaining six electoral college votes he needs for victory, investors on the other side of the world were betting that he would make it to the magic figure of 270 and end uncertainty over the outcome of the election in the world’s biggest economy.Related: What we know so far about the 2020 US election Continue reading...
Latest figures heap pressure on Bank of England to inject more cash into the economyThe British economy is on course for a double-dip recession this winter, according to data showing growth slowing down in the UK’s dominant services sector last month.The latest IHS Markit/Cips monthly survey of the services sector, which accounts for three quarters of economic activity, showed that a recovery over the summer stalled in October, heaping further pressure on the Bank of England to boost its stimulus programme when officials meet this week. Continue reading...