Latest World Economic Outlook describes shock of coronavirus pandemic as ‘like no other’

All generations should have to help pay for massive economic cost, says thinktank

The crisis has brought the economy to a near halt, and left millions of people out of work. But thanks to intervention on an unprecedented scale, a full-scale meltdown has been averted – for now. By Adam ToozeIn the third week of March, while most of our minds were fixed on surging coronavirus death rates and the apocalyptic scenes in hospital wards, global financial markets came as close to a collapse as they have since September 2008. The price of shares in the world’s major corporations plunged. The value of the dollar surged against every currency in the world, squeezing debtors everywhere from Indonesia to Mexico. Trillion-dollar markets for government debt, the basic foundation of the financial system, lurched up and down in terror-stricken cycles.On the terminal screens, interest rates danced. Traders hunched over improvised home workstations – known in the new slang of March 2020 as “Rona rigs” – screaming with frustration as sluggish home wifi systems dragged behind the movement of the markets. At the low point on 23 March, $26tn had been wiped off the value of global equity markets, inflicting huge losses both on the fortunate few who own shares, and on the collective pools of savings held by pension and insurance funds.Related: ‘We can’t go back to normal’: how will coronavirus change the world? Continue reading...

Debt relief and massive economic support are needed in Africa, as developing nations cope with health and economic emergencies

So far we haven’t had the evidence to truly judge leaders and their coronavirus policies. With policies easing, we soon will

Consumer and business spending will stay cautious but the state can fill the gap. We must not turn off the taps too early, like in 2010Donald Trump tells us that once Covid-19 is contained and it is safe to go back to work, the economy will be “great again”. Is the US president right?There is at least one reason to think he is. After all, unlike a hurricane or earthquake, the pandemic has caused no damage to the physical capital stock. It follows, Trump and his advisers argue, that we can pick up where we left off. The economy took a time-out but now output will rebound swiftly to pre-crisis levels and growth will proceed as before.Related: The 2008 financial crisis will be seen as a dry run for Covid-19 cataclysm | Kenneth Rogoff Continue reading...

More than 60 poorer countries are spending more paying creditors than on health – study

Ministers face hideously difficult tradeoffs between curbing the menace of the coronavirus and the severe damage being done to the economy

The Bank of England’s extension of the ‘ways and means’ facility adds to a mountain of loans too big to be temporaryRishi Sunak avoided calling the Bank of England last week to beg for an extension of the Treasury’s overdraft facility to meet his Covid-19 spending commitments.The chancellor was saved that job by Andrew Bailey, the central bank’s governor, who saw the red flashing signs on the side of the Treasury’s headquarters from his Threadneedle Street offices almost three miles away. In a joint statement, the Treasury and the Bank said they had agreed to extend the use of the “ways and means” facility as a temporary measure during the disruption caused by Covid-19. Continue reading...

US death toll becomes the highest in the world; Italy and India extend lockdown

With the IMF and World Bank spring conference approaching, research underlines need to bail out world’s poorest countriesFor more than two years the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund have warned that sub-Saharan Africa stands on the verge of a debt crisis. Ever since commodity prices began to fall in 2015, the public finances of nations stretching from Nigeria to Kenya and Chad to South Africa have deteriorated.If China is the manufacturing centre of the world, Africa is its chief supplier of essential materials, from oil and copper to the rare-earth minerals used in mobile phones. As China’s manufacturing waned in the middle of the last decade, so did the crucial foreign earnings that keep African nations afloat. Continue reading...

It may be months before official figures reveal the extent of decline – so analysts are using proxy data to measure it

Anthony Matheson is a doctor who wants to help but can’t, Peter Kaan is convinced the Tories will only do right by the NHS temporarily, and Karen Barratt is fearful that low-paid workers in essential services will end up footing the bill

France and Netherlands at odds on finance ministers’ €500bn compromise

The arguing over a financial rescue package for hard-hit states shows that even member states don’t trust Europe• Coronavirus latest updates• See all our coronavirus coverageThe European Union has scraped through its latest crisis by the skin of its teeth. The past week has been a disgrace. When ministerial talks collapsed on Thursday over the plan for a “coronabond”, the reaction seemed terminal. Germans and Dutch insulted Italians and Spaniards. Italy’s prime minister, Giuseppe Conte, said his country faced an “economic and social emergency”, and the EU appeared not to care. The Danes spoke of “a financial crisis on steroids”. The European commission’s vice-president, Frans Timmermans, predicted “the EU as we know it will not survive this”.Finally a last-minute package was agreed, for €500bn of emergency loan finance. This was little more than an extension of the existing European stability mechanism, designed to help individual countries in short-term emergencies. Even then, it was a mere third of what the European Central Bank had said was needed, €1.5tn euros. What was specifically not agreed was any sharing of the economic burden of the pandemic across European treasuries in general. It was mostly more loans. Continue reading...

Compromise reached after Netherlands relents on ‘economic surveillance’ of beneficiary nations

The Bank of England is right to step in to fund the Treasury’s coronavirus stimulus package, because there are more important things to worry about than government debt

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news as oil prices swing on production cut hopes and EU nears rescue deal

The economy was flatlining before the coronavirus outbreak and now we are nearing the moment of maximum danger

Latest figures show 16 million people have now lost their jobs, with layoffs spreading across the economy

Kristalina Georgieva says Covid-19 pandemic has spawned ‘economic crisis like no other’

A singular event has economists asking the same questions as everyone else: how far is there to fall – and can we ever get back?

Stagnation in services sector and winter drop in construction activity hit GDP growth

With lockdown likely to be extended, Treasury can draw on billions in extra funds to support cashflow

Nearly half of all jobs in Africa could be lost without urgent action, says charity

Resolution Foundation analysts estimate cost of UK’s wage subsidy scheme

International trade body predicts commerce could shrink up to 32% and warns against 30s-style protectionism

Report warns 80% of firms face a highly uncertain future if stores close for two monthsThe coronavirus pandemic has plunged the $2.5tn (£2tn) global fashion industry into crisis with a “significant number” of firms expected to go bust in the next 18 months, putting millions of jobs at risk.Global fashion sales are predicted to fall by up to 30% in 2020 and the luxury end of the market will be even harder hit, with sales slumping by up to 40%, according to a bleak report by the Business of Fashion (BoF) and consultants McKinsey.Related: Primark announces wage fund for garment workers Continue reading...

Short-term collapse in global output likely to rival or exceed any recession of the last 150 yearsWith each passing day, the 2008 global financial crisis increasingly looks like a mere dry run for today’s economic catastrophe. The short-term collapse in global output now under way already seems likely to rival or exceed that of any recession in the last 150 years.Even with all-out efforts by central banks and fiscal authorities to soften the blow, asset markets in advanced economies have cratered and capital has been pouring out of emerging markets at a breathtaking pace. A deep economic slump and financial crisis are unavoidable. The key questions now are how bad the recession will be and how long it will last.Related: World must combat looming debt meltdown in developing countries | Joseph StiglitzThe US public-health response has been catastrophic, owing to a combination of incompetence and neglect at many levels of governance, including the highest. If things continue the way they are, the death toll in the New York City area alone could rival that of northern Italy. Continue reading...

Dutch officials and British economist to use guide to help city thrive in balance with planet

As car sales plunge by almost half lenders offer repayment breaks or waive interest to halt ‘handbacks’Fears are growing of a crisis in the UK’s £75bn car loan market, where 6.5m vehicles have been financed through leasing deals with monthly payments that are already proving unaffordable for some laid-off as a result of the coronavirus.The Finance and Leasing Association (FLA), which represents the credit arms of the car manufacturers as well as the banks, said: “It’s early days in terms of quantifying the impact on arrears, but the number of forbearance requests has grown significantly in recent weeks.”Related: Sub-prime cars: are car loans driving us towards the next financial crash? Continue reading...

British Chambers of Commerce reports firms at a ‘cliff edge’ as cash runs out with with only 1% getting government funds

UN Labour body expects 6.7% of working hours to be wiped out globally in second quarter

Flight from stock markets helps Treasury complete first part of scheme to bolster spending with at least £45bn extra this month

Shares have bounced back but it’s too soon to call the bottom for prices in the Covid-19 pandemicHave we seen the bottom for stock markets? It is tempting to believe so after two days of fast action as investors have responded to the welcome sight of flatter coronavirus curves in Italy, Spain and Germany.Some of the gains in individual stocks – those that had fallen the furthest – have been stunning. Speedy boarders could have made a 27% return in 48 hours by buying shares in easyJet first thing on Monday morning. In the same short period, Rolls-Royce, the engine-maker, gained 24%. Like easyJet, it was able to unveil a self-help strategy involving more borrowing.Related: FTSE shrugs off dire UK data as markets sense easing of Covid-19 crisis Continue reading...

If international community wants to avoid wave of Covid-19 defaults it needs to start rescue planAs it spread from one country to another, the coronavirus paid no attention to national frontiers or “big, beautiful” border walls. Nor were the ensuing economic effects contained. As has been obvious since the outset, the Covid-19 pandemic is a global problem that demands a global solution.In the world’s advanced economies, compassion should be sufficient motivation to support a multilateral response. But global action is also a matter of self-interest. As long as the pandemic is still raging anywhere, it will pose a threat – both epidemiological and economic – everywhere.Related: Now the world faces two pandemics – one medical, one financial | Robert Shiller Continue reading...

Letter calls for $8bn emergency fund to bolster health systems in world’s poorer countriesA group of 165 global leaders has called for immediate and coordinated international action to tackle the twin health and economic emergencies caused by the Covid-19 pandemic.Past and present politicians – including three former UK prime ministers – joined academics and civil society representatives to warn the G20 that the virus will return unless urgent action is taken to bolster health systems in poor countries of Africa and Latin America. Continue reading...

The company’s spending cuts bolster the government message that bailouts are a last resort

‘Coronabond’ proposal for debt sharing threatens to derail meeting of countries still haunted by fallout from 2008

Dow, German Dax and FTSE all rise amid signs that severity of the crisis may be easing

Rolling coverage of business, economics and markets as stock markets gain on hopes coronavirus lockdowns are slowing disease’s spread

Jamie Dimon singles out US structural problems, and warns inadequacy of emergency planning will be laid bare

One member state has become a dictatorship as others spiral into debt. Germany must lead through the coronavirus crisis

When millions face an uncertain employment future, a federal jobs guarantee program could turn the page on a dark chapter of our nation’s historyLast week, more than six million people applied for unemployment, the largest jump in unemployment claims in our country’s history. The Federal Reserve estimates that the Covid-19 pandemic could lead to 47 million Americans losing their jobs in the weeks to come. With little hope of being re-hired, these workers will struggle to stay healthy, feed their children, and pay rent on the meager, one-time $1,200 check authorized by the most recent federal stimulus package.At the same time, we face the consequences of starving our public infrastructure. Our cities are deficient in resources and underprepared for a pandemic epidemiologists have been warning government officials would be coming. Despite claims that ours is the best healthcare system in the world, our hospitals and nursing homes do not have sufficient masks, gloves, protective gear, flu tests, ventilators, hand sanitizer, or disinfectant wipes to protect either their own staff or their patients. We need workers to produce these essential products.No factory should be standing idle through a healthcare crisis. Failing to use these resources during a deadly pandemic is unacceptableCassandra Robertson, PhD, is a postdoctoral fellow at the Cornell Population Center, where she researches economic mobility and social policy.Holly Wood, PhD, is an independent scholar, writer and activist. Continue reading...

We are told by everyone from the United Nations to Donald Trump that the US is a ‘developed’ economy. The statistics suggest otherwiseWhen Susan Finley developed flu-like symptoms, she didn’t go to the doctor because she was frightened about the cost. Finley’s grandparents later found her dead in her apartment. She was 53.Finley did not die as a result of Covid-19. She died in 2016 as a result of America’s healthcare system – a system that led her to avoid treatment for the common flu in order to avoid debt. It is that same system that is currently creaking under the pressure of a pandemic that experts warned was coming but governments failed to prepare for. It is a system that does not qualify for the term “developed”. Continue reading...

Low earners seven times more likely to work in sectors worst hit by shutdown, study finds

A new economics paper suggests a red-amber-green solution to safely ease us out of coronavirus restrictions

Boris Johnson has shown a woeful lack of responsibility as the Covid-19 pandemic has escalated

Economic hardship is blighting some more quickly than others

Coronavirus has changed Britain’s social and political orthodoxies. But not every crisis results in a revolutionAs a classical scholar, our prime minister will be all too aware of some uncanny parallels between the onset of coronavirus and the plague that beset Athens in 430BC.The immortal historian Thucydides wrote: “At the beginning the doctors were quite incapable of treating the disease because of their ignorance of the right methods … In fact, mortality among the doctors was the highest of all since they came more frequently in contact with the sick.”The end of capitalism? I doubt it. The Tories suddenly becoming fully paid-up Keynesians? For how long, I wonder Continue reading...