The OECD is alarmed at how much states and firms owe. UK chancellor Rishi Sunak would be wise not to be reckless in the budgetIn 2010, in the wake of the global banking crisis, 34 of the world’s richest nations – those that belong to the Organisation for Economic Cooperation & Development (OECD) – ramped up their borrowing to $10.9 trillion. In 2019, the OECD revealed last week, those same governments took their borrowing to a fresh high of $11.4tn.The Paris-based thinktank says the new figure is a cause for worry, especially when those same governments have only managed to grow their national economies at a snail’s pace over the past 10 years. Without strong growth, debts become a bigger burden on government finances when things turn nasty, as they did 10 years ago.Greece, once the pariah of the bond markets and forced to borrow at 40%, can now borrow at 1% less than the US government Continue reading...

Promoting his new book, the Frenchman is happy to talk Marx and money, but less forthcoming about a domestic violence claim that has resurfacedSeven years ago a French economist named Thomas Piketty published a book entitled Capital in the Twenty-First Century. It was 700 pages long and featured in-depth empirical analysis of various historical tax systems, amounting to a forensic argument against widening inequality. You wouldn’t say that it spelled international bestseller, and yet it has sold 2.5 million copies to date.Hailed as a modern successor to Karl Marx’s monumental Capital, it rejuvenated radical leftwing critiques of capitalism and earned Piketty (it rhymes with spaghetti) the epithet of “rock star” economist. Seldom has a media cliche been more misleading. Continue reading...

If Javid’s departure means austerity is over, then thank heavens. But Tories also have a history of overheating the economyI have found over the years that the general public shows little interest in the chancellor of the exchequer except on budget day. Often people have no idea who he is (so far there has never been a she). In the past week or so, however, I have been struck by the number of casual acquaintances who have commented on the farce of the recent sacking of chancellor Sajid Javid before he even had the chance to present a budget.What this bizarre episode has achieved is to focus people’s attention on no fewer than three revealing aspects of the character and behaviour of the man we have for the time being to call our prime minister. The first is his rampantly duplicitous nature: Javid had been assured repeatedly that his position was safe.Once again we have a prime minister who wishes to override Treasury caution and 'go for growth' Continue reading...

Hospitality and travel have already been hard hit, while there are concerns of looming shortages of products such as iPhones and batteriesWith the coronavirus outbreak in China affecting the import and export trade, Australian retailers and suppliers are concerned that consumers will soon start experiencing shortages of products ranging from iPhones to batteries. There are widespread factory shutdowns in China as millions of people remain in lockdown and subject to strict travel restrictions and quarantine measures.While some retailers say it is too soon to see a noticeable impact on stock, with many shipyard and factory workers taking time off for lunar new year anyway, they are preparing for shortages in coming weeks.Related: Coronavirus: two Australians evacuated from Diamond Princess test positive in DarwinRelated: Coronavirus fallout could leave Australian tourism and retail sectors in the doldrumsAnaconda, camping etc gear store. Staff told me it was because of the China lockdown.Just had a quote today for plantation shutters by Accent who told me of delays b/c corona in ChinaRelated: Apple warns of coronavirus causing iPhone shortagesYep. Empty/low sock on shelves in Bunnings Aundel QldRelated: Explainer: how worried should I be about coronavirus in Australia? Continue reading...

Stronger public finances come as Rishi Sunak prepares to unveil budget next monthThe chancellor, Rishi Sunak, has been handed a modest boost before next month’s budget from public borrowing rising by less than previously expected, despite the government failing to hit targets set four years ago.The Institute for Fiscal Studies, Britain’s foremost thinktank for the government finances, said the country was on track to record a budget deficit for the 2019-20 financial year around £3.5bn smaller than forecast in December. Continue reading...

Wages | Alien life | Northern accents | Marmalade | school | YellowbelliesIt’s welcome news that the average weekly pay is now £474, but this highlights the danger of using averages to help paint a picture. I bet the majority of the 974,000 people on zero-hours contracts would be delighted to earn that amount (Lost decade limps to an end as wages creep above pre-crisis levels, 19 February).

Rolling coverage of business, economics and markets as textiles, clothing and footwear sales drive stronger-than-expected 0.9% improvement

‘Boris bounce’ theory is disproved by industry, with CBI painting relatively downbeat pictureTills are ringing merrily in the high streets and it is all down to Boris Johnson. Thanks to the prime minister the dark clouds of uncertainty are scudding away and a grateful nation feels free to start spending again.Really? Sure, there was a chunky rise in retail sales in January but in the latest three months – a better guide to the underlying trend – they were up by only 0.8% on the same period a year earlier. This is the weakest annual growth since 2013. Continue reading...

Rise of 0.9% in January is likely to persuade Bank of England not to cut interest ratesRetail sales rebounded last month as consumers flocked to buy discounted clothing and footwear, giving the high street a welcome boost after a dire 2019.The Office for National Statistics said sales increased on average across the high street and online by 0.9%, reversing a 0.6% decline during December. Continue reading...

As climate, privacy, globalisation and demographic developments accelerate, adjustments are neededFirms and governments must increasingly internalise the possibility – indeed, I would argue, the overwhelming probability – of an acceleration of four secular developments that influence what business and political leaders do and how they do it. Decision-makers should think of these trends as waves, which, especially if they occur simultaneously, could feel like a tsunami for those who fail to adapt their thinking and practices in a timely manner.The first and most important trend is climate change, which has evolved from a relatively distant concern, on which there is ample time to take remedial action, to an imminent and increasingly urgent threat.Related: The white swan harbingers of global economic crisis are already here | Nouriel Roubini Continue reading...

Thinktank says nations need to focus on social prosperity in the fight against extremismThe G20 needs to move beyond economic growth and GDP as a measure of progress and factor in human wellbeing and social prosperity, one of its key advisors has said in a new report.In a hard-hitting report due to be submitted to the G20 group of leading developed and developing countries, experts said that issues including the climate emergency and mental health meant judging progress required a different yardstick of success. Continue reading...

TUC says jump to 1.8% would put squeeze on living standards at time of falling wage growthInflation jumped to a six-month high of 1.8% in January after a surge in petrol prices and an increase in the cost of gas and electricity over last year.Related: UK cash economy close to collapse, campaigners tell chancellor Continue reading...

Deaths in mainland China pass 2,000 and Foreign Office tells Britons to stay on the Diamond Princess cruise ship

Former Labour MP Kelvin Hopkins on hopes for a resurgence in the economic ideas of John Maynard KeynesI threw my metaphorical hat in the air and gasped “at last” when I read your editorial (Keynes’ ideas worked in the 1940s, and now they are due a comeback, 17 February). Between 1945 and the 1970s, working-class living standards rose at an unprecedented rate, with full employment, housing standards transformed for millions by the building of quality council housing, free healthcare and secondary education, the establishment of the wider welfare state and much more. The genius of Keynes was at the heart of this revolution. I grew up in that world and was taught Keynesian economics as a student in the 1960s.It was a tragedy that Keynesianism was later trashed and suppressed by the intellectual inferiors of monetarism, neoliberalism and globalisation. They were vengeful and profoundly wrong in all they propounded in their counter-revolution. JK Galbraith and others spelt this out, but were ignored in a rampant ideological drive to the right. Continue reading...

UK is not in early stages of wage-price spiral, with little sign of inflationary pressure in pipeline

In rebuke to ministers, ISC says Johnson’s goal of rebalancing UK economy is being put at riskBoris Johnson’s goal of rebalancing Britain’s lopsided economy is at risk of failure because of the government’s neglect of its industrial strategy, the watchdog established to monitor progress of the flagship policy has warned.In a critical report, the Industrial Strategy Council (ISC) said the policy to earmark government support for key sectors of the economy had made only limited progress since Theresa May first unveiled the plan three years ago. Continue reading...

Rolling coverage of business, economics and markets as British prices rise faster than expected

The celebrated French economist is back with an ambitious and optimistic work of social science, which argues that inequality always relies on ideologyIt is a journalistic convention that any author who writes a doorstopper of a book with the word “capital” in the title must be the heir to Karl Marx, while any economist whose books sell in the hundreds of thousands is a “rock star”. Thomas Piketty’s 600-page, multi-million selling Capital in the Twenty-First Century won him both accolades, but both were wide of the mark. There is nothing Marxist about Piketty’s politics, which are those of a liberal reformer, while his concept of capital is closer to an accounting category (a proxy for “wealth”) than the exploitative force that Marx saw it as.And despite his unexpected celebrity, Piketty makes for an implausible rock star. In contrast to the suave rebellion of Yanis Varoufakis or the frat-boy know-alls of the Freakonomics franchise, Piketty comes across both on stage and in print as cautious and nerdish. He is fixated on statistics, in particular on percentiles. Not only does he mine them from unlikely sources, such as 18th-century tax records and Burke’s Peerage, he is clearly fascinated by the mechanics of how data came to be collected in the first place. Piketty is a brilliant and relentless anorak.He might be right: given the climate crisis and other factors, current levels of inequality cannot long be maintained Continue reading...

Seismic risks for the global system are growing, not least worsening US geopolitical rivalries, climate change and now the coronavirus outbreakIn my 2010 book, Crisis Economics, I defined financial crises not as the “black swan” events that Nassim Nicholas Taleb described in his eponymous bestseller but as “white swans”. According to Taleb, black swans are events that emerge unpredictably, like a tornado, from a fat-tailed statistical distribution. But I argued that financial crises, at least, are more like hurricanes: they are the predictable result of builtup economic and financial vulnerabilities and policy mistakes.There are times when we should expect the system to reach a tipping point – the “Minsky Moment” – when a boom and a bubble turn into a crash and a bust. Such events are not about the “unknown unknowns” but rather the “known unknowns”.Related: Trump's 'America first' policy offers Beijing and Brussels a chance to lead | Barry Eichengreen Continue reading...

Rishi Sunak urged to enshrine right to access cash in budget with 8m people at risk of exclusionThe new chancellor, Rishi Sunak, is being urged to include measures to protect access to physical money as part of the March budget, as experts warn the UK’s cash system has edged closer to collapse.Authors of the Access to Cash Review are calling for extra safeguards to support the UK’s cash infrastructure, which has come under severe strain in the 12 months since the original report was published last March.Related: New chancellor Rishi Sunak challenged over hedge fund past Continue reading...

Points-based plan makes it hard for low-skilled migrants to work – it pulls up the drawbridge rather than takes back controlThe self-employed Polish plumber will be a thing of the past. Uber taxis in Britain’s big cities could be harder to come by. Anybody who wants to hire a Lithuanian nanny will have to pay them £500 a week – and make sure the taxman knows about it.Welcome to the government’s new points-based immigration system, which will administer the biggest structural change to the UK labour market in decades when it comes into force next year.Related: UK productivity slowdown worst since Industrial Revolution – study Continue reading...

The country followed a rabbit down the austerity hole, but there’s no Brexit wonderland for Britain’s workersHas Britain turned a corner? If you believe the headlines it would certainly seem so. Wages are up, and unemployment appears the lowest for decades. If you believe the hype then the last decade has been a journey where the country followed a rabbit into the austerity hole and emerged into a Brexit wonderland. This is a fiction and the facts are more troubling. If Britain had full employment there ought to be a sharp rise in wage growth as businesses see the pool of labour – Marx’s reserve army of the unemployed – dry up. Yet wage growth has dropped from 4.1% in April last year to 2.8%. Pay packets are still smaller than they were a decade ago. Total pay is £503 a week, well below the £522 a week workers took home before the crisis began in 2008.The “employment miracle” hailed by ministers is in fact a symptom of a British disease of economic insecurity. Unstable, precarious, low-paying and temporary jobs have become the norm for too many. The number of part-timers who can’t find full-time jobs is rising by 18,000 a month. In the middle of 2018, there were 781,000 people on zero-hours contracts. There are now 974,000. Then there is the growth in self-employment. In 2000 around 11.7% of those employed set up businesses on their own, where they earn considerably less than those with full-time jobs. That number is now 15.2%, the highest on record. Continue reading...

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news

UK prepares evacuation flight for cruise ship passengers. Follow the latest news

Outbreak is supply and demand shock for tech giant and markets must wake up to the global risksThere are plenty of signs of the strains China’s economy is coming under as a result of the coronavirus. The sharp fall in German business confidence is one because Europe’s biggest economy suffers when demand for its exports falls. The decision by Cathay Pacific, Hong Kong’s flag carrier airline, to cancel 40% of its flights in February and March is another.But the best bellwether of what has been happening in China is Apple, which has warned that it is on course to miss its revenue forecasts in the first three months of 2020. China is a big market for Apple – accounting for about one-sixth of its global revenues – and is the source of most of its products. The coronavirus represents a demand and a supply shock to the company.Related: Businesses worldwide count cost of coronavirus outbreakRelated: Average UK wages rise above pre-financial crisis levels Continue reading...

Wages finally end 12-year squeeze but zero-hour contracts at new highAverage real wages – which take account of the impact of inflation – have risen above their pre-financial crisis level for the first time as workers begin to repair the damage to their finances after a 12-year squeeze on living standards.In a significant moment after a lost decade for British workers, the Office for National Statistics said average weekly earnings, excluding bonuses, have reached a fresh peak in real terms. This means pay packets adjusted for inflation are worth more than they were before the 2008 crisis – although only just. Continue reading...

International trade slump and coronavirus outbreak combine to weaken consumer demandJapan’s economy is heading for a recession this year after figures showed the world’s third largest economy slumped by an annual rate of 6.3% during the last quarter of 2019.Germany, the world’s fourth largest economy, is also expected to stumble as the coronavirus epidemic and a slump in trade with China combine with weak consumer demand to drag growth lower. Continue reading...

Moderate leftists need an argument and an inspiring leader, writes John Pawsey, while Dariel Francis says the threat of populism is best countered with a dose of Keynesian economics

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news, as Japanese GDP falls at the fastest pace in five yeas

Households’ optimism over finances and job security rise in February, survey showsConsumer confidence in Britain has risen to the highest level in more than a decade after Boris Johnson’s decisive election victory, according to a survey.In the latest signal of a bounce for the economy since the start of the year, a poll by IHS Markit showed households’ optimism over their finances and the economy increased in February to the highest point since the survey records began 11 years ago. Continue reading...

‘Boris bounce’ invigorates buyers and sellers, leading to 12% surge in salesBritain’s property market is in the grip of fresh boom, according to Rightmove, with asking prices jumping by more than £2,500 over the past month alone.The average asking price for a home rose to £309,399 in February, £40 shy of its all-time record, said Rightmove. Buyers and sellers have been invigorated by renewed economic confidence, described as the “Boris bounce”, it added. Continue reading...

The British economist’s ideas remain as important today as they ever wereThis month, 83 years ago, perhaps the greatest-ever economist published his greatest work. John Maynard Keynes’ The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money did not invent monetary analysis. But it changed the way that money, finance, demand and unemployment in a modern economy were understood. Such is its enduring power that, three years ago, it was voted the most significant British academic book of the modern age. Keynes knew what he was on to when he wrote The General Theory. In a letter to the playwright and activist George Bernard Shaw, he wrote: “I believe myself to be writing a book on economic theory, which will largely revolutionise … the way the world thinks about economic problems.”Keynes put his theory into practice. Entering the Treasury in 1940, he was central to the creation of the British government’s plans for the reconstruction of the economy after the second world war. He was not the only person involved, but his blueprint of a state-guided investment policy accompanied by a generous social welfare system, progressive taxes, a low interest rate, monetary policy run by a nationalised Bank of England, strict capital controls, managed trade, and non-casino financial markets built the postwar state. It proved remarkably successful: GDP per head growth averaged 2.44% a year in the period from 1950 to 1973. Keynes’s economic revolution was not some utopian dream but a politically feasible project. Continue reading...

The PM continues to spurn convention, as the departure of Sajid Javid showsBoris Johnson has broken one of the three iron rules of politics and his defenestration of Sajid Javid shows he thinks he can break the other two as well.Rule number one is that oppositions don’t win elections; governments lose them by failing to get the economy in fine fettle as election day approaches. Administrations that preside over periods of falling living standards lose seats, as was the case with Jim Callaghan in 1979 and Theresa May in 2017. Continue reading...

Sanders makes the same assumptions in the US as Labour did in Britain – but in both countries the electorate is complexBernie Sanders is on his way to victory in the race for the Democratic party nomination. There are plenty of trip hazards along the route to challenging Donald Trump in November, and Sanders will need to joust with the billionaire Michael Bloomberg after he finally shows up in the Super Tuesday primary on 3 March, when about a third of all delegates will be allocated from the votes of 14 states.Yet Sanders’s radical programme looks like it will excite enough party members to secure the Democrat nomination in a field of candidates where the more moderate wing, while larger in vote share, is badly split between Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar, Joe Biden and Bloomberg, and where his leftist challengers – among them Elizabeth Warren – have fallen away.Averages disguise how unevenly wealth is distributed across the age groups as much as they show class divides Continue reading...

Airlines have grounded flights, banks have sent staff home. In China and worldwide, the virus has taken its tollWith the coronavirus outbreak spreading far beyond its source in China, companies are braced for a hit on profits as demand slumps and production is disrupted in the world’s second largest economy and beyond.Executives face weeks of uncertainty over how many people will catch the virus worldwide and what the full impact will be. Daniel Zhang, the boss of China’s biggest listed company, Alibaba, described the coronavirus outbreak as a potential “black swan” event that could derail the global economy. Continue reading...

GDP growth at 0% for final quarter of 2019 with no upturn forecast in the short termGermany’s economy flatlined in the last three months of 2019 after a slowdown in spending and exports wiped out growth in Europe’s largest economy.GDP growth stagnated at 0% in the fourth quarter of 2019 after its struggling export-oriented industry came under pressure from trade tensions, changes in the auto industry and a slowing European economy. Continue reading...

Dariel Francis and Glen Reid challenge a letter from Tim Worstall of the Adam Smith Institute about inequality and wealth redistributionTim Worstall of the Adam Smith Institute (Letters, 12 February) says: “Reality is telling us that the economy is not a zero-sum game”, as if that implies it is actually possible to “level up the needy” without redistribution of wealth. But GDP per capita tells us precisely nothing about wealth inequality within a country, and results in such a distorted picture in tax havens like Ireland that its central bank introduced another measure, modified gross national income, in 2017 to assess the country’s economy and indebtedness more accurately.If 1% of the UK population in 1751 enjoyed most of its wealth, and 99% next to none, and those proportions are the same today, there remains a cogent argument for wealth redistribution as an engine of economic growth and wellbeing – as demonstrated by Piketty et al.

Ex-Labour government aides say No 10 too small to battle all-powerful ministry for long•Analysis: Treasury will bide its timeThe attempt by Boris Johnson to emasculate the Treasury and seize control of economic policy is doomed to failure, people close to the former prime minister Gordon Brown have said.Brown, who served as chancellor for a decade between 1997 and 2007 before a three-year stint at 10 Downing Street, is convinced the size and range of the Treasury will stifle the turf-war plans of Johnson and his chief adviser, Dominic Cummings.Related: Treasury will bide its time over Johnson's radical changes | Larry Elliott Continue reading...

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news, including the latest eurozone growth figures

From JCB in Britain to airlines in Middle East, virus fallout disrupts global supply chains

The new Tory MPs appear to wish to continue with the austerity project, says former MP Liz McInnes, and Ken Veitch sees the damage being done by cuts in children’s services

Rishi Sunak must add finishing touches to ambitious package billed as new dawn of spending

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news, as e-commerce giant Alibaba, digger maker JCB and fashion chain Ralph Lauren warn about coronavirus impact

The era of open markets and open borders is over, its demise hastened by the climate crisis, populism and now coronavirusOver the past 30 years China has become the world’s factory. For the past few weeks, the production line has been shut down by plant closures deemed necessary to halt the spread of coronavirus. Beijing fears there will be both short- and long-term damage from the outbreak. The country is on course for its first quarter of negative growth in decades, while earlier this week China’s ambassador to the World Trade Organization (WTO) called on other countries not to use coronavirus as an excuse to put up trade barriers.The fact that Zhang Xiangchen felt the need to make this appeal speaks volumes. China suspects there will be backdoor protectionism – and it is almost certainly right, because for years countries around the world have needed little encouragement to resort to protectionism. What’s more, the restrictions are not just on the movement of goods. Earlier this month, the US treasury announced curbs on foreign investment to protect critical technology, data and infrastructure from foreign sabotage. Donald Trump’s plans for a wall along the US border with Mexico are emblematic of a toughening up of controls on migration. An era of open markets and open borders – where trade and transnational capital flows rose rapidly as a share of global output – has run its course. The instruments of deglobalisation are being weaponised.Companies are realising that lengthy global supply chains have costs as well as benefits. Coronavirus has brought that home with a vengeanceRelated: Trump's greatest vulnerability is the economy – just ask poor Americans | Reverend William Barber Continue reading...

Public spending watchdog fears they could be over-exposed in a recession or property crashEnglish councils went on a massive £6.6bn commercial property spending spree over the past three years, buying office buildings and shopping centres to offset the impact of government funding cuts, the public spending watchdog has revealed.The scale of the rush to acquire revenue-generating investments to fund council services has left many local authorities potentially badly exposed in the event of an economic recession or a property crash, the National Audit Office (NAO) said. Continue reading...

Economists fear coronavirus could pull Germany into recession, but Europe’s Stoxx 600 index and Germany’s Dax hit fresh peaks

But Resolution Foundation analysis shows new Tory seats not among worst-off areasThe Labour party’s former political heartlands in the north of England, Midlands and Wales suffered from a tougher squeeze on wages and slower jobs growth than the rest of Britain over the past decade, according to a report.In a report in to Labour’s former “red wall” seats the Resolution Foundation said the party’s former strongholds had been through a decade of “relative economic decline” since 2010. Continue reading...

China and the EU are filling the void led by Washington’s return to isolationism. Collective leadership is the only way forwardDonald Trump’s “America first” policies are widely regarded as an abdication of global leadership, sounding the death knell of the post-second world war multilateral order that the US shaped and sustained.There is much truth to this view. At the same time, this troubling turn represents a reversion to longstanding US values. Acknowledging that the second half of the 20th century was an anomaly, rather than the norm, raises troubling questions about the nature of US leadership and the fate of multilateralism after Trump.Related: Donald Trump is a good president … but only for the top 1% Continue reading...

Readers respond to an article by Andy Beckett that said the left should welcome that centrists seem to be slowly coming to terms with today’s worldWell done to Andy Beckett (The centre can hold, but only if it challenges the status quo, Journal, 8 February) for articulating the recent failures of the political centre to ask hard questions of itself rather than blaming Jeremy Corbyn or lamenting populism.The centre has complacently stayed in the 1990s and failed to recognise that global economic growth can no longer provide for all. Small surprise that it was deserted in a variety of national elections and in the 2015 and 2017 Labour leadership contests. Continue reading...

The flaw at the heart of the prime minister’s policies is that Britain’s unequal economy is a product of Conservative thinking which remains fundamentally unchangedAfter an election governments tend to do two things. First, ministers take advantage of their opponent’s disarray by framing the script for the next parliament with a compelling narrative, deploying catchphrases that will make their story stick in the public’s memory long after the headlines have faded. Second they administer the bitter pill of spending restraint, so that fiscal goodies can be doled out ahead of the next election. BorisJohnson is bucking the trend by doing the first but not the second. He has taken high-stakes gambles to win power. Whether his latest bet pays off will depend on how right the prime minister proves to be about both politics and economics.Mr Johnson says he wants to keep the Labour votes he says were “lent” to the Conservatives in December’s election. At the top of the new government’s agenda is the idea of “levelling up” and squashing regional inequalities. This is a desirable goal, not least in swathes of the country where people have been left feeling disenfranchised and ignored. But this will take time. There is no quick fix to tackle entrenched problems such as: why pupils in the poorest areas in the north are four times more likely to attend schools graded less than good than their London counterparts; or why men in Manchester can expect to die nine years younger than those in leafy Hampshire; or why the average northern worker produces £4 less per hour than their counterpart in the south. Continue reading...