UK buildup of finished goods rises in December at second-fastest rate since 1992Britain’s manufacturers ramped up their stockpiling efforts last month in preparation for a potential no-deal Brexit in less than 90 days’ time, with factory output rising to the highest level in six months.According to the latest snapshot survey from IHS Markit and the Chartered Institute of Procurement and Supply, growing concerns about Brexit disruption from border hold-ups after 29 March led more businesses to build up stocks in December. Continue reading...

Australian dollar at risk of crashing below crucial 70 US cent mark as growth slows in SingaporeChina’s huge manufacturing sector has shrunk for the first time in 19 months, sending stock markets into a tailspin in an ominous start to 2019.The weak data released on Wednesday follows a slew of other disappointing figures from the world’s second largest economy and underline concerns that is heading for a tough 12 months.Related: Australian house prices falling at fastest rate in a decade, data showsRelated: 'All necessary means': Xi Jinping reserves right to use force against Taiwan Continue reading...

We are trying to be positive, but there’s little likely to put a smile on your face – except for a couple of things …Making predictions in the world of business and economics is a fool’s errand but that’s no reason not to have a crack at it. Here are some things to look out for in 2019, which could be a rollercoaster ride.What's the problem? Continue reading...

Be it smartwatches or smart speakers, it’s never been easier to make gadgets. But only the big players have the muscle to surviveImagine a shopper in an electronics store. Look, there’s a Fitbit display, with its “activity bands” which measure your steps and show details. Or, more pricey, its Versa smartwatch. Perhaps to save money, just buy the activity band? But wait … just over there are some generic activity bands, and they’re cheaper. Maybe save some money with those.Move along a bit, and there are GoPro cameras. But once again, there are some slightly cheaper models beside them; not well-known brands, but a camera is a camera, surely? Further along, there’s a Parrot drone. Next to those is a Sonos speaker, which works with Amazon’s Alexa. But beside it is a cheaper Amazon Echo, and a voice-controlled Google Home, and a Siri-enabled Apple HomePod. Why would you go with the smaller brand, faced with those offerings from tech’s behemoths? Or, at the previous displays, why not just buy the cheaper models?Related: The 20 best gadgets of 2018 Continue reading...

Politics, science, technology, TV, books … here’s what to expect in the year aheadA year is much more than just 365 days, or one orbit of the Earth around the sun. One year produces so many events and human stories that in 2018 alone, the Guardian published more than 73,000 news articles.Much of what happens is unpredictable. But with 2019 only hours old, there are a few things that can confidently be foretold. Continue reading...

Rolling coverage of the final trading day of 2018, as investors around the globe nurse heavy losses

Early data shows a drop in footfall of 3% on last year – the third consecutive annual fallInvestors will this week gain a clearer picture of retailers’ performances over the crucial Christmas period, as vultures circle the sector after HMV became the first victim of weak sales.Initial data from Springboard, a retail consultancy, showed that footfall in the week to Saturday fell by around 3% compared with last year, in line with declines seen throughout the Christmas trading period. In-store shopper numbers on Boxing Day fell by 3.1% year on year – the third consecutive annual decline in footfall. Continue reading...

Proper patrolling of workers’ rights is welcome. If the losers in the gig economy are to be helped, ministers must be tougherThe increased level of intervention by the government in the labour market since Theresa May became prime minister is both rational and humane. The UK economy is too reliant on low-wage, low-skilled jobs, many of which are also insecure. While unemployment remains low, and in-work poverty is a serious problem, there is no good reason for ministers not to apply pressure to employers. Figures published by the Joseph Rowntree Foundation this month suggest one in eight workers (4 million people) are now classified as poor. Working conditions and low pay are causing real suffering, with ambulances called to Amazon’s UK warehouses 600 times in three years. DPD delivery driver Don Lane died after missing medical appointments because he feared being fined for taking time off work.The review of the gig economy by thinktanker Matthew Taylor last year produced 53 recommendations, 51 of which ministers accept. Higher fines for employers who mistreat staff, and plans to inform workers of their rights on day one of any new job, are sensible. So is the repeal of a rule that allows employers to pay agency workers less than full-time staff. But a new right for zero-hours workers to request regular hours falls far short of union demands that they be entitled to them as a right. And details of the agency tasked with investigating and punishing abuses, and naming and shaming employers who fail to pay out after employment tribunals, remain vague. As with all regulation, the devil is in the detail of who, with which resources, has the power to do what. At the moment, workers in the UK bear a greater share of the burden of enforcement than in most European countries, with tribunals often the only recourse once an employer’s internal processes have been exhausted. It is almost two years since the economist David Metcalf was given the task of overseeing labour market enforcement, but his empire is small. It takes in a small team of employment agency inspectors, gangmaster licensing and the minimum wage (health and safety is separate). Given the scandalous scale of unpaid wages (estimated at £3.1bn in 2016, much of it holiday pay), and other failures highlighted by the Low Pay Commission and others, this regime is recognised as inadequate. But just as the government did not accept all of Mr Taylor’s recommendations, it has not accepted all those contained in Mr Metcalf’s first full annual report. Among measures rejected in December was a call for increased penalties for non-compliance. Continue reading...

Crashes seem to come round once a decade. Are we looking down the barrel of a new one?Recessions are always easy to spot in retrospect. With the benefit of hindsight, it is always easy to identify the warning signs of serious trouble ahead.Correctly forecasting recessions in advance demands a higher level of skill, as the Bank of England found in 2008 when it mistook the biggest slump since the second world war for a temporary growth slowdown.Related: Never mind the Brexit sideshow – recession is the real worry | Larry Elliot Continue reading...

Presidents express willingness to stick to G20 agreement in phone call, says news agencyChina’s president, Xi Jinping, has called for Donald Trump to reach a compromise on trade, as discussions continue in an attempt to avert the imposition of heavy tariffs on goods.Xinhua, a Chinese state-controlled news organisation, reported on Sunday that Xi told Trump in a telephone call that he had “hopes that both teams can meet each other halfway and reach an agreement beneficial to both countries and the world as early as possible”.Just had a long and very good call with President Xi of China. Deal is moving along very well. If made, it will be very comprehensive, covering all subjects, areas and points of dispute. Big progress being made! Continue reading...

Years ending in ‘9’ always seem to bring upheaval … and it looks like we are in for a hot one in 2019Call it coincidence if you like but years that end in a “9” have a habit of being eventful. More particularly, they tend to be years of upheaval. There’s 1789, of course, the year of the French Revolution. The Peterloo massacre, which eventually led to the launch of the Guardian, took place in 1819 and a century later there were fears that Bolshevism would spread from Russia westwards.The year 1939 requires no further explanation while 1979 encompassed the Iranian Revolution and the arrival of Margaret Thatcher in Downing Street. A decade after that, the tearing down of the Berlin Wall heralded the collapse of communism. In 2009, central banks had to pull out all the stops to prevent the deepest recession since the second world war turning into a second Great Depression. The slump against which all others are measured began with the Wall Street crash of October 1929.Related: Bread-and-butter local issues threaten to derail the global economy Continue reading...

In the arts, politics, science, sport, technology and business, we preview the events that will shape our world in the next 12 monthsLovers of Shakespeare are invited to witness “a marriage of true minds” in early February when Kenneth Branagh and Judi Dench play Mr and Mrs Shakespeare on the big screen in Branagh’s All Is True. The screenplay, written by Ben Elton, follows the playwright’s return to Stratford-upon-Avon in 1613 after the Globe theatre burns down. Continue reading...

The state of the UK balance of payments recalls the crisis of 1964-67 – but the threat of a no-deal Brexit makes it far worseOne of the great economist John Maynard Keynes’s most memorable statements was: “In the long run we are all dead.”Alas, Keynes himself did not have an especially long run. Those wearing negotiations he undertook with the Americans and others on the postwar international economic settlement took their toll, as vividly described in Robert Skidelsky’s masterly biography. He most certainly battled for his country, as well as for a less depression-prone or beggar-my-neighbour world economy than was experienced in the 1920s and 1930s. Continue reading...

A no-deal Brexit is only one of many potential threats sending traders fleeing to safe havensThe recent gyrations in the FTSE 100 and the tumbling price of oil may have captured public attention, but in the last four months the FTSE All-Share index has lost 12% of its value and the gold price has jumped 10%. If any two figures really show how nervous traders have become about the new year, it is these.The safe haven that gold offers has pushed its price to a 15-month high of £1,010. The riskier FTSE All-Share, which covers all London-listed companies, has tumbled almost 600 points to 3596. Continue reading...

The Guardian’s social affairs correspondent spent two eye-opening weeks in the UK with UN rapporteur Philip AlstonIt was past midnight and, as another deadline loomed, the news editor of the Sunday paper I used to work for could no longer mask his frustration at how badly I was fouling up a story. Reporting was simple, he said: pick up the phone, ask a question and write down the answer.Amid the fatigue of another late shift, it felt sarcastic. But in the following years the simplicity of what he said stayed with me. It was essentially an instruction to listen, the most important thing reporters do. Persuading people to start talking can be hard. Finding the reason to publish what they say – why these people? Does it matter? Why should the readers care? – is not always easy either. But listening is the key, especially when covering social affairs, in which the patterns of people’s lives often emerge slowly.Double-checking is the stuff of good reporting too. The more people we listen to, the clearer the picture becomes Continue reading...

Uncertainty over Brexit dominates the landscape – but there will be more predictable changes, such as rail fare risesWe will soon be waving goodbye to a turbulent 2018 and saying hello to a 2019 that – because of the ongoing Brexit chaos – will also be swathed in uncertainty. The UK is due to leave the European Union in about 90 days’ time, but will Brexit actually happen, or will it be delayed or even halted? How the year pans out will inevitably have a huge impact on the money in our pockets.Here are some of the key dates over the next year: Continue reading...

Guardian readers discuss the high social cost of austerity being imposed on the UK’s legal processIt is certainly true that many people are being deprived of access to justice following the legal aid cuts (Legal aid cuts force parents to drop fight for children, 27 December). Many parents who cannot possibly afford solicitors’ fees are faced with the possibility of losing their children or financial rights on divorce, or the incredibly daunting prospect of representing themselves in an archaic justice system that is not designed with them in mind.Every day we hear from litigants in person who try to muster the energy, strength and resources for the latter. We at Advicenow provide step-by-step guides, films and tools to try to help people going to court without the help of a lawyer as much as we can, but obviously writing “simple” guides to an incredibly complex system is a mammoth challenge. Continue reading...

The west will need to balance security fears with a confidence that global trade is key to our prosperityA visit to Huawei’s HQ in Shenzhen is a glimpse into the way China’s leadership would like to envision its future. About 180,000 workers throng quietly around a pristine campus in the new-build city, which prizes digital expertise so highly that some outstanding engineers are lured with special rent deals to work on a campus that looks more like architect-designed Silicon Valley than the crowded factories that feature in much of urban China.I was whisked around examples of sleek bicycles, remote-controlled fridges telling me when food needed to be consumed and super-fast immersive gaming – all showcasing the speed and flexibility of 5G-honed technology. Huawei is the jewel in China’s tech crown, a subject of pride at home and an export success as the world’s biggest supplier of telecoms equipment. But that jewel is fast turning into a flashpoint between Beijing and western governments, emblematic of deeper tensions about trade, security and a divide over the hidden risks of globalised digital advances.Related: Google’s Earth: how the tech giant is helping the state spy on usRelated: The giant that no one trusts: why Huawei’s history haunts it Continue reading...

Leaders must focus on domestic matters in 2019 to solve world problems such as trade and climate changeFor many of the world’s economies, financial markets, heads of government, and carbon policies, 2018 did not end well. The scars of the global financial crisis, combined with longer-term structural economic, technological, cultural, and demographic trends, have left large swaths of the population in many countries feeling politically neglected, culturally disparaged, and/or economically wounded. And their expression of their grievances – at the polls, on the internet, and in the streets – has left their leaders profoundly weakened.In Germany, the four-term chancellor Angela Merkel has long acted as the European Union’s de facto leader. Then came her fateful 2015 decision to welcome more than 1 million refugees into Germany. The backlash – fuelled by frustration with the added pressure on public services, finances and law enforcement, not to mention political fearmongering – left Merkel so wounded that she did not seek re-election as leader of her party this month and will not stand for re-election as chancellor after her current term expires in 2021.Related: EU growth forecast has boosted confidence – but is it misplaced? | Mohamed El-Erian Continue reading...

A former dame hits back | Paddy Ashdown the historian | Festive misspellings | Consumerism | Welsh Bethlehem | Kent’s DunkirkI agree with David Konyot’s objections to the use of the words “circus” and “clown” to describe the behaviour of our elected representatives (Letters, 27 December). As a former amateur pantomime dame I feel that the word “pantomime” is also misused. Pantomime is hard work, amusing, entertaining and popular. Parliament appears to be none of these things.

US markets followed Europe lower on Thursday, unable to hold on to the huge gains made on Wall Street a day earlier

Two former members of Bank of England’s rate-setting committee on the economic outlook

Deepening political chaos and business uncertainty over a potential no-deal Brexit is straining the economy

Each month we look at key indicators to see what effect the Brexit process has on growth, prosperity and trade

From shrinking Ryanair bags to falling house prices, via Iceland and Wall StreetA marathon business blog by Graeme Wearden on 6 February topped the list of our most-read articles this year, charting the panic selling that swept through global markets after a week in which $4tn (£3.2tn) was wiped off share values. Continue reading...

Directors’ survey shows almost 60% of business leaders expect things to get worse in 2019Business confidence in the British economy has fallen to the lowest level since the EU referendum, according to a survey of company directors.Business leaders in all parts of the UK are gloomy about 2019, said the Institute of Directors, with Scotland and London – areas where voters were heavily in favour of remaining in the EU – most pessimistic. Continue reading...

Treasury secretary talks to bank CEOs and calls together working group created after 1987 market crashThe US Treasury secretary has sought to calm market jitters about White House dysfunction and the government’s partial shutdown, calling the heads of the nation’s six largest banks and gathering the “plunge protection team” that formed after the crash of 1987.Steven Mnuchin called the bank CEOs on Sunday in an apparent attempt to reassure financial markets. In the unusual move, Mnuchin disclosed that he had spoken to the heads of Bank of America, Citi, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan Chase, Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo.Related: White House attacks on Fed chair fuel fears of market turmoil in 2019 Continue reading...

US Treasury secretary denies Donald Trump had suggested ousting Jerome PowellGlobal investors are braced for more turbulence in 2019 after the White House intensified its criticism of the US’s most senior central banker.Over the weekend, a flurry of reports claimed Donald Trump had discussed the possibility of firing the Federal Reserve chairman, Jerome Powell. Such an unprecedented move would trigger further instability in the markets, which have already had their worst year since the 2008 crisis.(1/2) I have spoken with the President @realDonaldTrump and he said “I totally disagree with Fed policy. I think the increasing of interest rates and the shrinking of the Fed portfolio is an absolute terrible thing to do at this time,...(2/2) especially in light of my major trade negotiations which are ongoing, but I never suggested firing Chairman Jay Powell, nor do I believe I have the right to do so.”Related: Wall Street stocks suffer worst week in a decade Continue reading...

Equivalents of Lord Grantham and his family are hedge fund financiers and City lawyersChristmas Day telly has not been quite the same since there stopped being a Downton Abbey special to savour. For many families, it was part of the yuletide ritual to watch the soap opera centred on the lives of the Crawley family and the servants who waited upon them.Downton was an idealised high-Tory view of the world. The aristos – Lord Grantham in particular – were paternalists, seeing it as their duty to look after the people they employed, provided they worked hard and knew their place. There was harmony between rulers and ruled; devotion to duty was rewarded; wrongdoing punished. It was David Cameron’s big society in microcosm.Related: Global markets are desperate for some Christmas spirit after a dismal yearIf history is any guide, the coming industrial revolution will create more jobs than it destroys Continue reading...

Investors hoping for a ‘Santa rally’ look set to be disappointed, as many fear the strong run of recent times is overInvestors are entering the Christmas holidays hoping for some respite from a brutal few months in which stock markets have sold off across the world, with little sign of the customary “Santa rally” in December.The UK’s FTSE 100 is on track for its worst performance in a decade in 2018 – barring dramatic moves in the three days of trading left on the London Stock Exchange, including half days on Christmas Eve and New Year’s Eve. At Friday’s close London’s blue-chip index had lost more than 12% for the year to date, which would equate to the worst run over a calendar year since the global financial crisis hit in 2008.Bouts of market volatility can be expected in an environment which is likely to remain on edge Continue reading...

The president’s $1tn tax cuts gamble hasn’t worked – the House of Representatives has been lost, the economy has imploded and the stock market has tankedThe accomplishments of a US president’s first year in office can be credited to his predecessor, at least where the economy is concerned. And Donald Trump was handed the best performing economy on the planet. All the tough decisions – to refinance the banks, rescue the car companies and deflate the real-estate bubble – had been made. The stock market was tearing along, setting records almost every week.Trump gave this rising balloon extra air with $1tn of tax cuts. It was borrowed money, but no matter. The economy sailed along for another year and the stock market carried on rising. His plan was to win the midterm congressional elections and then persuade the Republican party to give him another $1tn, or as near to it as possible. Continue reading...

The home secretary’s plans will be bad both for Britain’s finances and for workers’ rightsWe have become illiberal and lowered quotas at a time when we have an acute shortage of labour.” So observed the cabinet minister Richard Crossman in his diaries in 1966, after the Labour government, fearful of public hostility, slashed Commonwealth immigration into Britain.The conflict between those who see immigration as an economic necessity and those who fear its political consequences has long shaped immigration debate. One consequence has been incoherent policy. That’s as true of the home secretary Sajid Javid’s white paper on immigration published last week as it was in Crossman’s day.Immigration has become the most potent symbol of a world out of controlThe white paper estimates that it will lower GDP by ‘between 0.4% and 0.9% ’ by 2025 Continue reading...

Chris Riddell on a year not to be proud of Continue reading...

Government shutdowns hurt millions. Great depressions hurt even more. History suggests real pain is round the cornerOn Friday, Donald Trump said: “We are totally prepared for a very long shutdown.” It was one of his rare uses of the pronoun “we” instead of his preferred – and in this case far more appropriate – “I”.Related: Chaos at home, fear abroad: Trump unleashed puts western world on edgeThe shutdown is stoking fears that Trump could do something even more alarmingRelated: Trump and Democrats play blame game over government shutdown Continue reading...

The major international agencies should devise a progressive tax regime that penalises the biggest carbon emitters and offsets costs for the poorestPresident Macron needs to win the war on fuel tax. Every country does. It is an issue on which the governments in Paris and Nairobi have been forced to make U-turns. It is rising up the political agenda in other countries, including the UK and Germany, where the rebirth of the Greens and the rise of the rightwing AfD has paralysed the Bundestag.Without some kind of resolution to how much consumers and business pay for burning fossil fuels – a deal that most agree gets near being fair and addresses the problem of climate change – the battle will not be fought politely inside parliamentary debating chambers, but on the streets. Continue reading...

Revolut customers are protected by the Bank of Lithuania – but it’s not certain it will pay upIt is almost exactly 10 years since the 300,000 British customers lured into Icesave by high interest rates woke up to find that their £4bn in deposits had disappeared when parent company Landsbanki collapsed and the country’s entire financial system went into meltdown.Iceland’s deposit protection scheme instantly fell over. How could it not? A tiny country with a population about the same as Brighton found itself as the guarantor for savers across Europe, with Dutch as well as British savers heavily invested in the Landsbanki accounts. Today, we’re told, it’s all different. Banks have been forced to raise more capital, supervision and solvency testing is much more robust, and the EU has set a €100,000 (£90,000) minimum deposit protection level for member states.Related: The smartphone apps that will change the way you bank Continue reading...

Senior figures say PM will struggle to get deal signed off in current political uncertaintyTheresa May’s waning authority means the idea of concluding a three-year spending review next year is a fantasy and is only likely to be achieved if she were replaced as leader, cabinet ministers have said.The government has promised a full spending review in 2019 as part of a pledge to end austerity in the coming years, but senior figures say May will struggle to get the plan signed off.Related: Cash-strapped Britons keep spending but firms cut investment Continue reading...

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news, as Britain’s balance of payments worsens, and markets fluctuate at the end of a tricky week

We’ve been trashing the planet over recent decades while creating a miserable, insecure society, writes Natalie Bennett. Plus Siân Charnley on the changing language of environmental protestIn Larry Elliott’s article (We’re back to 1930s politics: anger and, yes, appeasement, 20 December), it is good to see an economics editor addressing, as Kate Raworth has done so effectively with Doughnut Economics, the fact that the economy is a complete subset of the environment. And Elliott is right to say that the official declaration that came out of Katowice was not nearly enough.But that wasn’t the only thing that came from the climate talks. There was a newly prominent place for civil society, from teenager Greta Thunberg to nonagenarian David Attenborough, and some companies, and many state and city governments, stepping up to the plate. Continue reading...

Households help UK economy bounce back over quarter as Brexit fears spook businessesCash-strapped households provided most of Britain’s growth in the three months to September, as businesses cut investment again amid fears over Brexit.Official figures confirmed the economy bounced back from the freezing temperatures earlier in the year as shoppers spent heavily during the football World Cup and a long heatwave.Related: Asos shock shows UK's economic problems extend beyond high street Continue reading...

OECD’s predictions may prove overly optimistic due to EU leaders’ lack of team spiritThe European commission, the International Monetary Fund and the OECD predict that, on average, the EU’s economy will grow by 1.9% next year, a rate that is broadly consistent with the average of 2% expected for this year. But the picture this paints may prove to be overly optimistic, not only because the growth rate itself is likely to disappoint, but also because there is significant downward pressure on the EU’s growth potential beyond 2019 – pressure that, at present, European leaders seem unprepared to counter effectively.If the EU were a soccer team, it would not lose games for lack of a gameplan or due to inadequate capacity. Worth nearly $19tn (£15tn), the EU’s economy remains the world’s second largest, constituting about one-fifth of the global output. The problem is that the team as a whole is not playing cohesively, and all of the top players are struggling individually, owing to messy problems at home. Continue reading...

Readers respond to the allegations that Jeremy Corbyn called Theresa May a ‘stupid woman’The “did he or didn’t he” over what Jeremy Corbyn actually mouthed at the PM in PMQs (‘Oh no he didn’t…’ Corbyn denies calling PM a ‘stupid woman’, 20 December) reminds me of the “fuddle duddle” that Pierre Trudeau claimed he mouthed at his opponents in the Canadian House of Commons on 16 February 1971 instead of what many observed to be far more Anglo-Saxon language. Two pop songs emerged from that incident, including Do the Fuddle Duddle, from a band opportunistically named the House of Commons.

Consumer demand and business investment are likely to have suffered, says MPCGrowing worries over prospects for the world economy and the mounting fallout from Brexit uncertainty have pushed the Bank of England to keep interest rates on hold before Christmas.Sounding the alarm that Brexit worries had intensified considerably in recent weeks to unleash heightened volatility in the financial markets, Threadneedle Street said it would wait for greater clarity next year before considering raising interest rates again. Continue reading...

Rate rises are off the agenda due to Brexit uncertainty and mothballed investmentBy now, had things turned out differently, Theresa May would have secured the passage of her Brexit withdrawal bill through parliament and the UK would unquestionably be on course to leave the EU at the end of March.In those circumstances, the Bank of England would be taking a very different view of the prospects for the economy and a much more hawkish view about interest rates. There would have been a good chance that at the December meeting of the Bank’s monetary policy committee, at least one member would have voted for an immediate tightening of policy. Continue reading...

UK central bank has left borrowing costs at 0.75%, and warned that Brexit uncertainties are weighing on the markets

Tokyo falls almost 3% and Sydney hits two-year low on news, as China responds with a targeted rate cut for businessesAsian stock markets have taken a battering after the US Federal Reserve voted to raise borrowing costs for the fourth time this year, signalling a further squeeze on liquidity around the world.In Tokyo, the Nikkei closed down nearly 3% to its lowest point for 14 months as the Fed’s pledge to continue with “gradual” rate hikes next year sent shivers through financial markets.Related: Why are markets falling, and are we heading for global recession?Stocks tumble on deepening fears of Fed mistake. Japan enters bear mkt as Topix slides 21% from Jan high, S&P 500 hits 15mth low after Fed Chair Powell disappointed excessively dovish mkt expectations. US 10y ylds drop to 2.75%, Oil continues downtrend, Bitcoin stable at $3.7k. pic.twitter.com/VrKquOckxrRelated: We’re back to the 1930s politics of anger and, yes, appeasement | Larry Elliott Continue reading...

Echoes of a horrific decade are getting louder, and the UN climate accord is the equivalent of Chamberlain’s piece of paperMore than any other decade, the 1930s act as a reference point for just how bad things can get. Mass unemployment, totalitarianism, war: a repeat of these horrors is to be avoided at all costs. Eighty years after Neville Chamberlain agreed to Hitler’s demands over the Sudetenland, there is still no greater insult than to dub a politician an “appeaser”.The determination in policy circles to avoid a return to the 30s helps explain why up until now it has never happened. Central banks slashed interest rates and turned on the electronic printing presses a decade ago because they feared a second Great Depression. Welfare states are more generous than they were when John Steinbeck was writing The Grapes of Wrath. Decades of growth have made societies wealthier; advances in medical science have made them healthier.Related: Are we living through another 1930s? | Paul Mason Continue reading...

Fed said rates will rise a quarter of a percentage point to 2.25% to 2.5% but it is carefully watching ‘event risks’, including BrexitThe US Federal Reserve raised interest rates again on Wednesday despite intense, and unprecedented, pressure from Donald Trump to leave rates unchanged.After a two-day meeting, the central bank announced rates would rise a quarter of a percentage point, to a range of 2.25% to 2.5%, the ninth such move since late 2015. The rate rise further signals the Fed’s confidence in the US economy.Related: Why are markets falling, and are we heading for global recession?I hope the people over at the Fed will read today’s Wall Street Journal Editorial before they make yet another mistake. Also, don’t let the market become any more illiquid than it already is. Stop with the 50 B’s. Feel the market, don’t just go by meaningless numbers. Good luck! Continue reading...