Statistics office figures show UK had lowest growth among G7 economiesHousehold spending slowed to its lowest annual growth for six years in 2017 amid Brexit-fuelled inflation, with borrowing surging and family savings slumping to a record low.Figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) confirmed economic growth slowed to 0.4% in the final three months of last year, down from 0.5% in the third quarter as weaker household spending took its toll.Related: UK businesses told to expect workforce crisis after Brexit Continue reading...

Operations cancelled, children scared, no beds left: the BBC documentary charts the long-term effects of short-term fixes

Employment consultant says growth in number of workers will nosedive and urges companies to invest in young people

Only a year is now left until the UK’s official moment of departure from the European Union on terms almost certainly decided by a rightwing clique of ToriesWhen a majority of MPs voted a year ago to authorise the activation of article 50, they did so because they felt it was their duty as mandated by the Brexit referendum. But this does not mean parliament has to agree to whatever Brexit Theresa May offers. Democracy demanded that the vote be honoured, but that doesn’t mean everything done under the banner of Brexit is in the interests of the country or an expression of an irreversible “will of the people”. In reality we are dealing with an ever-shifting battleground of political ideas. Democracy means listening to the majority, but it also means managing conflicting ambitions within that majority. Disentangling all the motives that compelled people to tick the leave box is not easy. Neither should the national mood be seen entirely in terms of the winning side, as though remain voters have disappeared and their ideas are not worth considering.Democracy also means protecting minorities, and 48% is a big minority. A Brexit that would bring the country together is the softest of soft Brexits. But Mrs May decided, without even consulting her cabinet, to go for an extreme model. She sought a mandate for this in a general election and didn’t get one. She pushed ahead regardless, stitching up a pact with the DUP, who don’t even represent the majority vote on Brexit in Northern Ireland, which backed remain. Ireland is a toxic issue. Northern Ireland was torn apart by strife for 30 years until a fragile, precious peace was secured. Any Brexit must uphold the peace process, the Good Friday agreement and therefore the soft border. Continue reading...

In episode 5 of The Alternatives, Aditya Chakrabortty talks to Ande Gregson of Green Lab about small-scale innovationSubscribe and review on Apple Podcasts, Soundcloud, Audioboom, Mixcloud and Acast, and join the discussion on Facebook and TwitterIn this episode Aditya Chakrabortty speaks to Ande Gregson of Green Lab – a makerspace in London – about how small-scale creators can keep an economy robust and innovative. Green Lab is a manufacturing site where innovators can come together, spreading the cost of rent, to develop projects that respond to the global food crisis. Continue reading...

Small-scale creators are vital to our economy, but the government gives them no help. Instead of giving up, they are going it alone. The latest article in our new economics series meets the people behind Green Lab in London

Readers respond to Damian Carrington’s interview with Paul Ehrlich whose book The Population Bomb was published 50 years agoI read Damian Carrington’s interview with Paul Ehrlich and found Paul’s analysis to ring frighteningly true (Scientist stands by warning that collapse of civilisation is coming, 23 March). His book The Population Bomb predicted starvation in the 1970s, something that was avoided by the “green revolution” in intensive agriculture. The green revolution was the point at which farmers turned away from natural techniques (eg mixed farms and crop rotation) and instead started using chemical fertilisers and pesticides along with hybrid plants whose seeds could often not be harvested for re-use. This led to higher yields at first, but then to exhausted and polluted soil and increasing debt to suppliers.The role of the green revolution was to “delay the calamity”. But at a great cost to nature. So what was humankind’s reaction to these developments? Instead of stopping to take stock, we became addicted to the consumerist traits of “cheap and abundant” with no thought for the real cost and inherent risk. Continue reading...

Two former members of Bank of England’s interest rate-setting committee discuss the economy as inflation eases slightly•The Brexit economy - light at the end of the tunnel?

The migration advisers’ report shows free movement has been good for the UK – and when it ends, there will be consequences

Hopes that US and China can reach agreement on trade lifts investor confidence2.48pm BSTSigns that the US and China could be talking behind the scenes about avoiding a trade war have given global markets a lift after last week’s slump.European markets, which had missed out on Monday’s gains, have moved sharply higher today, with the FTSE 100 currently up around 2%, Germany’s Dax 1.7% better and France’s Cac climbing 1.3%.2.33pm BSTThe rally on US markets on Monday which saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average add nearly 700 points has continued at the opening of trading.The easing of fears over a possible trade war between the US and China has lifted the Dow another 50 points or 0.2%, while the S&P 500 opened up 0.3% and the Nasdaq Composite up 0.48%.2.19pm BSTSterling is falling back after its recent strong run after last week’s agreement between the UK and EU on a Brexit transition deal.A spate of profit taking has seen the pound fall 0.8% against the dollar to $1.4114 and 0.3% against the euro to €1.1399.2.04pm BSTThe UK economy is steadying after the initial fallout from the vote to leave the European Union, according to our monthly Brexit watch series. Richard Partington reports:As the one-year countdown to Brexit looms, the British economy is showing signs of steadying from the fallout triggered by the EU referendum, according to a Guardian analysis of economic news over the past month.After progress with Brussels towards a two-year transitional deal to smooth Britain’s formal exit from the EU on 29 March 2019, the pound has risen back towards the highest levels seen since the leave vote.Related: The Brexit economy: light at the end of the tunnel?Related: How has the Brexit vote affected the economy? March verdictRelated: 'There is progress but we could do better' - experts debate Brexit watch data1.52pm BSTFollowing the collapse of BHS, the insolvency service has said it will bring proceedings to disqualify Dominic Chappell, who bought the department store group from Sir Philip Green from running a company for up to 15 years. Its full verdict:We can confirm the Insolvency Service has written to Dominic Chappell and three other former directors of BHS and connected companies informing them that we intend to bring proceedings to have them disqualified from running or controlling companies for periods up to 15 years.We can also confirm that we have written to Sir Philip Green, also a former director of BHS, informing him that we do not currently intend bring disqualification proceedings against him.1.29pm BSTUS Opening Calls:#DOW 24333 +0.54%#SPX 2672 +0.48%#NASDAQ 6816 +0.91%#IGOpeningCall1.04pm BSTRelated: Business Today: sign up for a morning shot of financial news12.41pm BSTRoyal Bank of Scotland has made its first acquisition since its ill-fated purchase of ABN Amro which went sour during the financial crisis. PA has the details:RBS has snapped up accounting software firm FreeAgent, marking the lender’s first acquisition since its controversial crisis-era deal to buy ABN Amro.The taxpayer-owned bank said it had agreed to buy the company for around 120p per share, valuing it at 53 million.11.48am BSTGiven Donald Trump’s keenness on a strong stock market he may not want to really follow through on his trade war threats, suggest Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at Oanda

After progress in EU talks sterling has strengthened, inflation is falling and pay is rising. But sharp challenges remain•How has the Brexit vote affected the economy? March verdict

Each month we look at key indicators to see what effect the Brexit process has on growth, prosperity and trade in the UK

Experts predict lower growth in jobs and output if flows of people from EU are restrictedRestricting immigration from Europe after Brexit is very likely to lead to lower growth in total jobs and in the output of the UK economy, the government’s official migration advisers have said.The labour market experts even cite official projections that zero net EU migration post-Brexit could not merely halt population growth in parts of northern England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland but actually lead to falls in the next 20 years.Related: Report on UK's reliance on EU workers 'must be published urgently' Continue reading...

From class to politics to business, the middle was linked to stability – now things are less predictableThere was a time when many regarded being in the middle of the distribution – socially, politically, and in the business world – as a favourable, stabilising, and desirable outcome. From the anchoring role in society of the middle class to the agility and resilience of mid-size firms, the middle was seen as consistent with both individual and collective wellbeing. Yet, in recent years, the middle has become less stable, less predictable, and more elusive, and its primacy – in economics, politics, business, asset management, and even sports – has become increasingly unsustainable.Driven by structural changes, as well as lagging business and policy responses, the middle has been eroded – or is at risk – almost everywhere you look. Should this trend continue – which is subject to some debate – the implications would be far-reaching. Continue reading...

Labour’s vision to reshape the world order will require political will to end tax evasion and create a fairer global economyIn the foreword to Labour’s new policy paper, Jeremy Corbyn characterises the party’s vision for development as “a progressive, outward-looking, global view, driven by social justice and human rights”. So far, so expected.For those who remember the Blair-Brown era of Make Poverty History, the most exciting shift is the plan to tackle rising inequalities alongside the more familiar focus on reducing poverty, treating inequality and poverty as two sides of the same coin.Related: Labour’s plan to tackle inequality can revive the ailing development sector | Nick DeardenRelated: Labour: cutting global inequality must be at core of UK aid programme Continue reading...

Investors still edgy on fears of a full blown trade war between world’s two largest economies2.46pm BSTThe US markets have made a bright start after last week’s rout following news that the US planned to impose $60bn of tariffs on Chinese imports.Investors have turned slightly more positive on hopes that the US and China could resolve the row before it turned into a full blown trade war, following positive comments over the weekend from US treasury secretary Steve Mnuchin. S&P said we were not in a trade war yet but much would depend on China’s plans for retaliation to the $60bn worth of sanctions announced by Donald Trump last week.1.47pm BSTAhead of the US market open, a positive bit of economic data.The Chicago Fed’s national activity index has jumped from +0.02 in January to +0.88 in February. January’s figure was however revised down from +0.12.1.40pm BSTSpeaking of Brexit, Moody’s Investors Service says the agreement between the UK and the EU on the terms of a transition arrangement is positive but there is still much uncertainty. In a report just published, it said:The agreement provides clarity that is credit positive for a broad range of UK issuers because it extends the narrow time frame that is available to shape and implement a new trade agreement and regulatory regimes with the EU until existing common rules cease to apply. It also buys the UK limited time to negotiate free trade agreements (FTAs) with other countries.However, the agreement remains conditional on the UK and the EU overcoming other challenges, such as the need to find a solution that prevents the creation of a hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland.12.45pm BSTWith a year to go until Britain leaves the European Union, there are a host of unresolved issues facing business. Dan Roberts has been taking a look:Related: 'Businesses need answers fast': uncertainty clouds the picture a year from Brexit12.28pm BSTIn the currency markets, the pound is edging higher against both the dollar and euro.Against the dollar it is up 0.6% at $1.4223 while against the euro it is up 0.17% at €1.1458. The single currency is also benefiting from dollar weakness. All this is helping limit the gains in European stock markets, says Mike van Dulken, head of research at Accendo Markets:Equities have started the week on the front foot, with reports of US-China talks helping ease the trade war fears which pushed equities lower last week, as well as Trump signing rather than vetoing a US government spending bill. That said, US dollar weakness, and thus pound and euro strength, is keeping equity bullishness in check, holding indices from breaking back above key levels, to inspire confidence in a turnaround.12.15pm BSTEurope should create a rainy day fund to help any countries that get into financial difficulties in the future, said IMF managing director Christine Lagarde.In a speech in Berlin she said:[A new IMF paper] proposes creating a “rainy-day fund” that countries contribute to each year to build up assets in good times.Then, depending on the depth of a downturn countries would receive transfers to help them offset budget shortfalls.11.57am BSTEuropean markets are managing to hold onto their early gains.The FTSE 100 is currently up 0.4%, Germany’s Dax is 0.5% higher and France’s Cac has climbed 0.24%. On Wall Street, the futures are suggesting the Dow Jones Industrial Average will open more than 300 points higher.11.16am BSTHere’s the latest update from the receivers at collapsed construction giant Carillion.Another 123 employees have lost their jobs and will leave the business later this week.More than 6,400 employees are currently retained to enable Carillion to deliver the remaining services it is providing for public and private sector customers until decisions are taken to transfer or cease these contracts.Discussions with potential purchasers continue. I am continuing to engage with staff, elected employee representatives and unions to keep them informed as these arrangements are confirmed.10.52am BSTBack in the corporate world, and excitement in the paper and packaging realm.Ireland’s Smurfit Kappa has seen its shares drop by nearly 4%, making it the biggest faller in the FTSE 100, after it rejected an increased €9.5bn offer from US rival International Paper.The revised proposal does not offer Smurfit Kappa shareholders much more than compensation for the fall in International Paper’s share price since [the first offer] and again entirely fails to value the group’s true intrinsic business worth and future prospects.Today’s [share price] reaction suggests concern among Smurfit holders (sitting on still handsome 20% profits versus 2018’s average) that IP’s new 15% higher cash component is merely aimed at offsetting the now lower valued share component, and that the meagre 3% boost to the aggregate offer means it is unprepared to go much if any higher. The other worry is that Smurfit will continue to hold out for improved terms which may never materialise. In which case, shareholders are cashing out as close to the top as they can.Those hanging on may be expecting a second revision from IP before it gives up. And history tells us this could well happen. The second bid does, after all, show willingness to maintain the bid’s 67% cash value to Smurfit shareholders. However, given Smurfit’s second rejection, and unless any third offer is for something closer to recent record highs (10% higher), it may not prove enough to convince management and shareholders alike to agree to tender. Especially given the risk that the value of the 32% share component worsens further, assuming the deal requires at least some anti-trust approval.10.19am BSTApart from the hopes that the US and China can avert an all out trade war, markets have also been buoyed by news that South Korea has been granted an indefinite exemption from steel and aluminium tariffs.The US has already given the European Union a temporary extension, something the bloc is hoping to make permanent.It is a calm morning after the stormy atmosphere of last week. US futures have raced higher on weekend reports that the US and China are working towards a possible deal that improves access for US firms.With equity markets so heavily beaten down last week, a rebound was a definite possibility, the only questions are how long it lasts and how far it goes. Churchill’s observation that ‘to jaw jaw is better than to war war’ applies to these tariff battles as well. The decision to exempt key US allies from the tariffs is a sign that the White House is not as dogmatic as the rhetoric appears, and should give negotiators room for manoeuvre.9.37am BSTA new snapshot of the UK housing market shows mortage approvals fell by 11% in February to 38,120 compared to January, but were up 4.9% on a year ago.But according to UK Finance, net mortgage lending rose by £1.643bn compared to £1.038bn in January.There has been an increase in remortgage approvals compared to last year, as borrowers look to lock in to attractive deals amid speculation of further interest rate rises later this year.We are also seeing a continuing rise in credit card spending, reflecting the growing number of transactions carried out using cards, while other forms of borrowing such as overdrafts continue to fall.9.09am BSTDespite the US tariffs to be imposed on Chinese products, we are not in a trade war - yet. That’s the view of S&P Global Ratings:President Trump’s long-threatened package of trade sanctions on China has landed, but a trade war isn’t yet inevitable. In general, the threatened tariffs and investment restrictions on China won’t likely cause deep pain to the Chinese economy, nor will they have a material impact on corporate borrowers in either country.However, S&P Global Ratings believes China’s response will be the key determinant on what happens next. So far China’s response has been relatively measured, indicating potential tariffs on about $3 billion of U.S. imports. But will China take additional retaliatory action?8.52am BSTBack in the corporate world, and the US has proved a step too far for many UK retailers, even such big names as Marks & Spencer and Tesco. Still, this has not stopped highly rated JD Sports from taking the plunge. Reuters has the details:British sports and fashion retailer JD Sports Fashion said on Monday it has agreed to buy US firm The Finish Line for $558m (£396m), boosting its presence in the world’s largest sportswear market.JD Sports has exploited growing demand for branded sports shoes and clothes to overtake Sports Direct as Britain’s leading sportswear retailer by market value and in recent years has also been expanding overseas.8.44am BSTDespite the moves higher in Europe, markets remain edgy, says Hussein Sayed, chief market strategist at FXTM:US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin commented over the weekend that he is cautiously optimistic that an agreement would be reached between the U.S. and China, and this would likely calm the markets when the U.S. trading session kicks off. However, the longer the “wait and see” mode lasts, the more pressure will be felt in the equities market. After all, many companies will need to adjust their expansion and capital spending plans according to the new developments. This will certainly impact investor’s confidence and risk global economic growth, which has been the key pillar of the nine-year-old bull run.8.28am BSTPositive signs from the French economy are also giving some support to European markets.The country’s GDP grew by 0.7% in the fourth quarter compared to the previous three months, better than the 0.6% originally estimated. The estimate for 2017 as a whole remained at 2%, according to the INSEE statistics agency.8.11am BSTIt’s a nervy start to trading in Europe, but markets have managed to edge higher despite the continuing tariff tensions. Investors are hoping the suggestion that the US and China are in discussions behind the scenes might avoid a full blown trade war between the two.So the FTSE 100 is up 0.21%, Germany’s Dax has added 0.3% and Italy’s FTSE MIB is 0.29% better.7.54am BSTUber has announced a deal to regroup its operations in south-east Asia:Ride-hailing firm Uber has agreed to sell its south-east Asian business to bigger regional rival Grab, marking the US company’s second retreat from an Asian market.The deal is the industry’s first big consolidation in south-east Asia, home to about 640 million people, and puts pressure on Indonesia’s Go-Jek, which is backed by Alphabet’s Google and China’s Tencent.Related: Uber to sell south-east Asia business to competitor Grab7.46am BSTGood morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.Donald Trump’s plans to impose $60bn worth of tariffs on China - on top of wider sanctions on steel and aluminium - raised fears of a trade war between the world’s two largest economies and sent shivers through global stock markets.Related: Asian shares battered by trade war fears but US signals willingness to talkEuropean Opening Calls:#FTSE 6918 -0.06%#DAX 11900 +0.12%#CAC 5097 +0.03%#MIB 22295 +0.03%#IBEX 9400 +0.07%As we come to the end of this first quarter of 2018 all of the optimism that we saw at the end of January now appears to be an almost distant memory, and it will need a significant change of tone to prevent stock markets finishing this quarter lower, despite this year’s record highs.China’s initially measured response to last week’s announcement of tariffs to the US administrations announcement does appear to offer some hope in terms of a possible stabilisation this week, but sentiment is likely to remain volatile, particularly if Chinese authorities follow up with further large scale measures which target, larger US corporations like Boeing or Apple. US treasury secretary Steve Mnuchin’s comments at the weekend that he was cautiously optimistic that a US agreement with China could be reached also offers hope that some form of accommodation can be reached in the coming days or weeks. Continue reading...

South Korea wins steel tarif exemption and Wall Street optimistic about China talks despite continued losses in Japan, Hong Kong and AustraliaFears of a full-blown trade war between the United States and China have battered Asian shares again despite signs that Washington is prepared to negotiate deals around the region.South Korea announced on Monday that it had won an exemption from US duties on steel imports, easing some anxieties about damaging tariffs for one of Asia’s biggest economies.Related: Paper tigers? US and China in dispute over tariffs but trade war looks remoteRelated: Is it time to break up the tech giants such as Facebook? | Larry Elliott Continue reading...

In leave strongholds such as Lancashire and Cumbria output is booming – but not wagesThe British economy risks splitting further along lines drawn by the Brexit vote, according to a report warning pay rises in some parts of the country have failed to match increases in worker productivity.According to the thinktank Localis, there has been a breakdown in the relationship between rising levels of worker productivity – a key measure of economic output per hour of work – and increases in pay and feelings of self-worth among employees.

Amazon, Facebook and Google are as dominant as Standard Oil and AT&T were. But breaking them up is not going to be easyIn the first decade of the 20th century, Standard Oil was as mighty as the tech giants of Silicon Valley are today. The company had grown from a single refinery in Cleveland in 1863 to produce 87% of all US refined oil output. In 1911, the supreme court decided that Standard Oil was in breach of anti-trust legislation passed by Congress and ordered that the company be broken up.Even before the data mining revelations that have engulfed Facebook, there was pressure in the US for similar action to be taken against the social media networking site and two other globally dominant companies – Google and Amazon – that have come from nowhere in the past two decades.

Trump made a big play of slapping tariffs on Chinese imports, but experts say neither side will risk escalating the current spatWill two tribes go to war? Even as the world’s largest economies, the US and China, send conflicting signals over whether they’re heading for an all-out trade war – spooking stock markets – experts doubted either side will risk escalating a dispute over trade imbalances.China’s economic tsar and vice-premier Liu He told US treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin on Saturday that Beijing is ready to defend its interests after Donald Trump announced plans to slap tariffs on nearly $50bn in Chinese imports.Related: Trump reluctantly signs $1.3tn spending bill despite veto threat Continue reading...

Economic advisers Larry Kudlow and Kevin Hassett represent the worst of establishment ideology – and ordinary Americans will sufferObservers of the thousand-man wrecking crew now smashing up America’s executive branch often grouse about the many ways in which it violates the “norms” of our country’s politics. What impresses me as I observe the unfolding Trumptacular is the opposite: how familiar it sometimes is.Related: Huge crowds in Washington and beyond as calls ring out to end gun violenceTrump seems to be betting that the substance of the populist narrative doesn’t matter as much as the rhetoric Continue reading...

Theresa May’s ‘transition’ deal is no cause for optimism amid this growing sense of farceDid I hear aright? Is the new, or rather “retro”, post-Brexit, true-blue British passport going to be manufactured in France? What a wonderful symbol of the futility and duplicity of the Brexiters’ promise to “take back control”!And what is this dire threat from the ubiquitous Jacob Rees-Mogg that the UK risks becoming a “joke nation” by giving in on so many fronts to Michel Barnier?Unless something turns up, this could well amount to a mere postponement of disaster Continue reading...

Shares fare better in Europe than Asia after China’s response to US tariffs less dramatic than fearedGlobal stock markets have been rattled again by fears of a trade war between the world’s two largest economics after China retaliated to Donald Trump’s plan to impose tariffs on up to $60bn (£42.4bn) worth of Chinese products.Hours after Trump announced the proposed import duties – which are expected to cover sectors such as robotics, hi-tech trains and aerospace – China said it had prepared retaliatory tariffs on about $3bn worth of US imports. Beijing urged Washington to negotiate a settlement as soon as possible.Related: A trade war would be bad, but Trump does have a point Continue reading...

The Dow Jones rose 0.5% in early trading on Wall Street, recovering some of the heavy losses a day earlier as investors digested US-China tit-for-tat measures

Fears of all-out trade war as Beijing says policy undermines global trading systemGlobal markets have dropped sharply after China retaliated against Donald Trump’s decision to impose tariffs on steel and aluminium, fuelling fears of an all-out trade war between the world’s two largest economies.Hours after the US president announced moves to tackle what he believes are unfair trade practices, China signalled it would hit US goods such as pork, apples and steel pipe with higher duties.Related: Trump is on path to full-scale trade war: first China, then EuropeRelated: A trade war would be bad, but Trump does have a point Continue reading...

‘HCSB’ in Walthamstow is selling printed ‘bank notes’ to raise money to buy local debtFirst there were the banks. Sending credit cards through the post, offering easy loans. They overstretched, teetered. Then came the billion-dollar bailouts, recession, austerity, poverty and payday loans.Then, slowly, came the movement: a piecemeal, sporadic effort to buy back the debt of ordinary people. Continue reading...

US president calls on Brussels to respond in kind to temporary amnesty, while move against Beijing hits stock marketsFinancial markets have taken fright after Donald Trump fired the latest shots in an escalating trade war between the world’s two biggest economies by announcing $60bn (£42.5bn) of further tariffs on China.Amid relief in Brussels that the EU had won a temporary reprieve from Trump’s already announced action to protect the US from imports of steel and aluminium, Wall Street braced itself for retaliation from China. Beijing announced it would consider higher tariffs on pork, aluminium pipe and other goods from the US, a trade worth about $3bn.Related: A trade war would be bad, but Trump does have a point Continue reading...

Experts say US and Chinese consumers will see higher prices – and fear other countries will be dragged in to the disputeDonald Trump’s announcement of tariffs on $60bn worth of Chinese imports has raised the prospect of a trade war that threatens to engulf the global economy.Related: US imposes sanctions on China, stoking fears of trade war Continue reading...

China has been flouting intellectual property rules and it has more to loseHere come the trade wars – possibly. The Trump administration’s imposition of tariffs on $60bn (£42.5bn) of imports from China could be a huge moment for the global economy. Past presidents toyed with the idea of branding China a “currency manipulator” but have always stepped away from action. Trump hasn’t gone down that route, with its ill-defined policy implications, but has instead gone for the jugular. China is deemed guilty of “economic aggression” by pinching US intellectual property and must pay a price.The consequences of that declaration depend on two things. First, will the size of the tariffs match Trump’s rhetoric about China engaging in abuse over decades? It is possible measures will be watered down if financial markets throw a wobbly, but Trump had advertised his intentions since taking office and you will struggle to find a chief executive of a large multinational that does not think China plays fast and loose. Chinese abuse of intellectual property rules is not a secret. Continue reading...

The effects of austerity are increasingly evident. But protecting the public will take more than hiring extra officers

If we are to reduce our consumption levels, says Linda Marriott, we must walk the walk, not just talk the talkBravo, Mark Boyle – your world sounds very beguiling to an oldie like me (I left a troubled world behind. Now let me tell you how to fix it, 20 March). However, I’ve lost count of the number of times in my life that I have heard this siren song, but no one with any influence ever seems to listen or even wake up. But, as Mark says, we can try small remedies ourselves should we be lucky enough to have a garden. It reminds me of an old Canadian friend who was convinced he could protect his family from the coming apocalypse by buying a farm, until he realised he’d have to have a gun – and use it – to stop those less fortunate from taking what he had. Or the 1970s German bumper sticker that translated as “everyone wants to go back to Eden but no one wants to go on foot”.

Ratesetters point to interest increase that appears almost certain unless growth stallsWe’ve been here before. First, the Bank of England says publicly that it thinks interest rates will need to rise. Next, a couple of members of its monetary policy committee break ranks and vote for borrowing costs to go up. Finally, the other members of the committee say they too think that the time is right for action.This is how the Bank of England softened up the public when it raised interest rates from 0.25% to 0.5% in November, and the same pattern is being followed again. In February, Threadneedle Street used its quarterly Inflation Report to signal that borrowing costs would be going up sooner and by more than the City had previously expected. Continue reading...

Pound up as two members of monetary policy committee vote for quarter-point increaseThe chances of a May rise in interest rates have increased sharply after two members of the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee voted for an immediate hike in borrowing costs.Sterling rose on foreign exchanges on news that Ian McCafferty and Michael Saunders had backed a quarter-point rise in the bank rate to 0.75%.One of Gordon Brown’s first moves as chancellor in 1997 was to hand control of interest rates to an independent Bank of England. Previously the cost of borrowing had been decided between the chancellor and the governor of the Bank. Continue reading...

Slight uplift in February is not enough to make up for weak December and JanuaryTough trading conditions for Britain’s hard-pressed retail sector eased slightly in February, according to official figures showing the first increase in sales in three months.The Office for National Statistics said retail sales volumes were up by 0.8% last month but that the increase was not enough to make up for the weakness of spending in December and January – two crucial months for the sector.Related: High street gloom: which chains are feeling the pain? Continue reading...

Rolling coverage of the Federal Reserve decision on US interest rates, and Jerome Powell’s first press conference as Fed chair

The Fed appears to be moving towards ending an era of historically low interest rates that began during the last recessionThe Federal Reserve raised interest rates again on Wednesday, arguing that the US jobs market was “strong” and signalled it may accelerate the pace of increases next year.The quarter percentage point rise to a range of 1.5% to 1.75% was the sixth such increase since 2015 and comes as the Fed appears to be moving, slightly, more quickly to end an era of historically low interest rates that began during the last recession. Continue reading...

Interest rate rise looms as wages increase more than expected in three months ending in JanuaryHigher interest rates from the Bank of England have moved a decisive step closer after the latest official figures showed earnings growing at their fastest rate in more than two years.The latest snapshot of the labour market from the Office for National Statistics showed that a record high level of employment and a drift from part-time to full-time work pushed up wages in the three months ending in January.Related: UK wage growth accelerates as employment rate hits record high - business live Continue reading...

Report places Manchester top across England and Wales, with London only coming in 20thCities in the north and the Midlands have been transformed by a period of rapid regeneration that has seen population and jobs growth far exceed that of London since the turn of the century, according to a new report.The Centre for Cities thinktank said urban renaissance in Manchester, Leeds, Birmingham and Liverpool had been so marked that problems of urban decay had been replaced by a need to find room for further expansion. Continue reading...

The duty for organisations to publish figures on hourly earnings and employment by quartile could be a gamechanger – if it results in concrete actionWith only a fortnight left before the deadline, not even a third of companies, charities and public bodies have met their legal requirement to publish figures on their gender pay gaps. There was plenty of notice that all with more than 250 employees would need to do so. The slow pace indicates the low priority afforded to such concerns and, perhaps, a hope that embarrassing figures will be buried in a late rush of filings. It seems probable that many organisations will not comply, and it is unclear whether and how they will be punished. They should be.The figures are not perfect. The refusal of law firms to include the earnings of (mostly male) partners, for example, produces technically accurate but misleading results. Nonetheless, the data published so far is powerful. Few if any women will be surprised that male colleagues outearn them per hour. But cold statistics have real force when they show disparities as stark as these: men at the UK wing of Goldman Sachs International earn more than twice the mean hourly pay of women. The impact is potentially reminiscent of #MeToo, if so far more muted. Such figures demonstrate to each woman that the problem is not an isolated case, but structural. They are not alone. Now they can prove it. Continue reading...

Britain’s politicians have again been found out for making promises to fishing communities that they can’t deliverIn British politics, the fishing industry carries an emotional resonance matched by few others; mining and shipbuilding are the only obvious contenders. Perhaps this is because Britain is an island. Perhaps it is because deep sea fishing was always prodigiously dangerous and heroic. Perhaps it is because fishing communities are particularly tightly knit. Or perhaps it is because, unlike mining and merchant shipbuilding, UK fishing continues to survive. Fishing is a relatively small industry, but it still sustains about 24,000 jobs, a third of them in fishing itself, double that in processing, and half of the total in Scotland, particularly in the north-east.Whatever the reason, the fact of that resonance is beyond dispute, as the government has again discovered this week. Under pressure from north-east Scottish and south-west English fishing constituencies that voted Conservative, the UK has pressed to be unhooked from the EU’s common fisheries policy as soon as Brexit officially occurs in March 2019. The EU, in contrast, argued that the CFP should continue through the transition period. At the start of March, the chancellor, Philip Hammond, said the government was open to continued inclusion. A week later, the environment secretary, Michael Gove, and the Scottish Conservative leader, Ruth Davidson – a leaver and a remainer – teamed up to press the case for leaving the CFP during the transition. This week in Brussels, that aspiration was dashed when the transition terms kept Britain firmly within the CFP until December 2020. Continue reading...

Boost for hard-pressed consumers as Britain’s inflation rate drops to its lowest since July 2017

Brexit vote-fuelled inflation is washing out of the system but interest rates may still rise as soon as MayInflation is coming down more quickly than the Bank of England expected as the impact of the post-EU referendum fall in the value of sterling washes out of the system.That was the good news from official data showing that the government’s preferred measure of the annual increase in the cost of living dropped from 3% in January to 2.7% in February.Inflation is when prices rise. Deflation is the opposite – price decreases over time – but inflation is far more common. Continue reading...

Cost of living squeeze eases after a small fall in both petrol and food prices, says ONSInflation fell further than expected last month, as the impact of the Brexit vote on the price of petrol and food began to fade, easing the pressure on squeezed British households.The consumer price index (CPI) fell to 2.7% in February, down from 3% in January, according to the Office for National Statistics. Economists had expected a CPI of 2.8%. The new reading puts the barometer for the cost of living in Britain at its lowest level since July last year.

Join Sanders from 7pm ET as he convenes a discussion on inequality with Elizabeth Warren, Michael Moore and more guestsWatch live as Senator Bernie Sanders hosts a town hall on inequality in America. Sanders has said: “The issue of oligarchy and wealth and income inequality is the great moral issue of our time, it is the great economic issue of our time and it is the great political issue of our time, yet it gets very little coverage from the corporate media.” To discuss inequality, he has convened a town hall in Washington DC with Senator Elizabeth Warren, film-maker Michael Moore, economist Darrick Hamilton and other experts.Why, in the richest country in the history of the world are so many Americans living in poverty? What are the forces that have caused the American middle class, once the envy of the world, to decline precipitously? Read more Continue reading...

All the day’s economic and financial news, as social media giant is hit by exposure of data breach involving Cambridge Analytica

Letters: Cuts have contributed significantly to a crisis of housing affordability and growing homelessnessThe homelessness minister, Heather Wheeler, told the Guardian she does not know why the number of rough sleepers has gone up so significantly in recent years but does not accept that the rise is related to cuts to social security or council services (Report, 18 March, theguardian.com). She must be unaware of the abundance of evidence demonstrating that such cuts have contributed significantly to a crisis of housing affordability and growing homelessness.Last September the National Audit Office warned that homelessness is “likely to have been driven by welfare reforms” and observed that the ending of private sector tenancies is the biggest single driver of statutory homelessness in England. This was predicted in 2014 by the work and pensions select committee and in 2016 the UN committee on economic, social and cultural rights noted “with concern” the impact reforms of social security have had on the right to adequate housing. Continue reading...

Issuing GDP-linked bonds is akin to buying insurance against economic distressThe time has come for national governments around the world to start issuing their debt in a new form, linked to their countries’ resources. GDP-linked bonds, with coupons and principal that rise and fall in proportion to the issuing country’s GDP, promise to solve many fundamental problems that governments face when their countries’ economies falter. And, once GDP-linked bonds are issued by a variety of countries, investors will be attracted by the prospect of high returns when some of these countries do very well.This new debt instrument is especially exciting because of its monumental size. Although issues may start out small, they will be very important from the outset. The capitalised value of total global GDP is worth far more than the world’s stock markets and could be valued today in the quadrillions of US dollars. Continue reading...

The Greek former finance minister talks about the lessons politicians could learn from Shakespeare, ahead of a lecture in LondonIs Theresa May Macbeth? Might King Lear agree with Jeremy Corbyn? On Monday night, one of Europe’s leading political thinkers – former Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis – will tell a London theatre audience the lessons for contemporary politics and economics that he believes can be found in Shakespeare’s plays.Varoufakis achieved Europe-wide celebrity in 2015 when he attempted to renegotiate Greece’s debt to the European Union during a financial crisis that paralysed his country. The politician resigned after a bailout plan was rejected by Greek voters in a referendum, but has remained a high-profile figure due to his style – he is often filmed riding motorbikes in black leather – and his ideas, outlined in books such as 2016’s And the Weak Suffer What They Must?Related: The six Brexit traps that will defeat Theresa May | Yanis Varoufakis Continue reading...