Watchdog calculates cost to business and public purse of indebted and stressed adults – not helped by harsh bailiffsThe British economy is losing almost £900m a year from the rapid rise in personal debt problems, according to a report from the Whitehall spending watchdog.The National Audit Office (NAO) report said reduced levels of worker efficiency, people staying away from work and greater chances of people in debt committing crime, meant there was a wider cost of £897m annually to the overall economy.Related: MPs rebuke councils for 'overzealous' use of bailiffs Continue reading...

The IPPR’s proposal will not be popular among directors, but the idea is soundMany of the arguments in the IPPR’s prosperity and economic justice report would probably raise a cheer or two in big British boardrooms. Not every director is a wild advocate for the shareholder-first version of capitalism that the report diagnoses as a major failing in the UK economy. Far-sighted business folk happily concede that short-term horizons can lead unhappily to under-investment and the pursuit of impossible targets.It’s just that, when it comes to one specific recommendation in the IPPR’s report, one can hear the howls of outrage already. The idea that large companies of more than 250 employees should have at least two elected workers on both their main board and their remuneration committee will be damned as unworkable, naive and a certain route to making companies uncompetitive. Continue reading...

The claim that Britain’s economic model is systemically unjust was recently deemed radical and extreme. Now it is indisputableEd Miliband is not often cited among the big winners in British politics. His five-year term as Labour leader ended in a humiliating election defeat. But that does not necessarily invalidate arguments he tried to make about injustice built into the UK economy, the systematic depression of wages and a short-term profiteering culture that spread insecurity and inequality. Mr Miliband’s analysis has subsequently been vindicated, to the extent that many Conservatives now talk about a crisis in capitalism. When Labour figures use that kind of language, the Tories denounce it as a slippery slope towards Bolshevism.In a polarised political climate it is important to build on areas of consensus, so a substantial and non-partisan economic reform programme, published this week, should be welcome across the political spectrum. The Institute for Public Policy Research thinktank issued the final report of its commission for economic justice, bringing together business leaders, economists, trade unionists, representatives from the worlds of technology, finance, charities – and the archbishop of Canterbury. Justin Welby’s presence on the panel is a reminder that economics can, or should be, an ethical pursuit as well as a technical one. Continue reading...

The language of enchantment is used by architects, bankers, entrepreneurs, marketers and others devoted to the art of ‘spin’, says Brian Moeran. Plus: lessons have been learned since the 2008 crash, says Nick Mayer, a former director for Lehman BrothersPhilip Pullman presents a persuasive case for why we should continue to believe in magic (The realm of enchantment, Review, 1 September), even though most Guardian readers live in a contemporary social world that pays lip service at least to rational practices (Donald Trump notwithstanding). He asks whether there might be varieties of magical experience and suggests that such a book has yet to be written.Such a book does indeed exist. A recent edited volume, Magical Capitalism, covers topics ranging from contract law to science, by way of finance, business, marketing, advertising, cultural production, and the political economy in general. Its contributors – all anthropologists – argue that the kind of magic studied by their predecessors in less developed societies – shamanism, sorcery, enchantment, the occult – is not only alive and well, but flourishing in the midst of so-called “modernity”. As the Ashmolean Museum exhibition would have its visitors, we are frequently and unconsciously “spellbound”. Continue reading...

IMF head says the male domination of banking could lead to another financial crisisChristine Lagarde has said male domination of the banking industry made the collapse of Lehman Brothers more likely, as she urged further reforms to prevent a repeat of the financial crisis triggered by its failure a decade ago.Writing on the IMF blog ahead of the 10th anniversary of the US investment bank’s collapse next week, the head of the International Monetary Fund said significant measures had been taken to fix the financial system, although she warned more work was still required, particularly on gender diversity. Continue reading...

Indonesia, Saudi Arabia and China are among those hit by trade wars and strong dollarEmerging markets have been hit by a renewed wave of sell-offs in shares and currencies, with Indonesia, Saudi Arabia and China among the countries hit by trade war tensions and a strengthening dollar.European shares also fell on Wednesday as investors registered concerns over the impact on the global economy if more emerging markets were to follow Argentina and Turkey into financial crisis.Related: Emerging markets: who's taking the biggest hits and why? Continue reading...

Government’s ambitious strategy does not provide any clarity for British firmsThe British government has launched its plan to turn the United Kingdom into an “exporting superpower”. It is an ambitious, if not entirely fanciful, goal.Given the escalating trade war between the US and China, countries around the world are rushing to consolidate their trade relations and preserve existing supply chains. Not so the UK, which is in the final stages of negotiations to withdraw from the European Union – a move that will upend its relationship with its single largest trade partner. The country will soon become not just a lesser exporter but also a lesser power.Related: Was the financial crisis wasted? | Howard DaviesThe crankshaft of a BMW Mini crosses the English Channel three times before the car is completed Continue reading...

Industry accounting for 80% of economic output held back by labour shortage – surveyBritain’s services sector is increasingly struggling to find enough workers amid falling numbers of skilled applicants as Britain prepares to leave the EU.The latest snapshot from IHS Markit and the Chartered Institute of Procurement & Supply (Cips) for the services industry – which accounts for almost 80% of national economic output – suggested companies are being held back from carrying out their activities by the labour shortage. Continue reading...

Ireland is the EU’s star performer, but almost 700 families have become homeless in the capital this yearJobs are bountiful, luring back emigrants and drawing newcomers. Property prices are soaring. Chic restaurants are fully booked weeks in advance. RTÉ television is showcasing the top new entries to Ireland’s rich list – many of them tech tycoons , plus a Ferrari salesman and other purveyors of luxury.Not long ago considered a hopeless case, Ireland’s economy is now roaring ahead with 5.6% GDP growth, making it the European Union’s star performer.Related: Dublin's ghost signs: preserving a city's fading memoriesCongratulations to everyone occupying the vacant property at 34 Nth Frederick St, Dublin. Injunction be damned: it’s better to break the law than to break the poor. #TakeBacktheCity #HousingCrisis Continue reading...

From rising rents to stagnating wages, millions struggle in Britain’s skewed system. My thinktank has some answersToday, most people in poverty are in working households. Despite near full employment, pay continues to stagnate for the majority of people, even while growth has occurred. The nations and regions of the UK continue to diverge. For many, work is precarious as well as poorly paid: nearly a million people are on zero-hours contracts and many more are in bogus self-employment, where employers have simply sought to shirk their responsibilities. It is a state of profound economic injustice.That’s why the message of the Institute for Public Policy Research commission on economic justice, which I chair, is that the economy needs fundamental change.Related: UK wage growth slides to lowest rate in six months Continue reading...

Claims that the finance sector brings jobs and revenue were exposed as a sham – and the rest of us inherited a legacy of debtAugust 2005, and the people who steer the world economy gather in the mountains of Wyoming. Flying in are finance ministers and central bank chiefs. In front of this global elite, the International Monetary Fund’s chief economist will sound the gravest warning of his life. Raghuram Rajan must try to avert a catastrophe, yet as he leaves home he tells his wife, “Either this talk will make me or I’ll look a fool for evermore.”The summit is supposed to be one big leaving bash for Alan Greenspan, stepping down after nearly two decades running the US Federal Reserve. “We were all competing to say how great a central banker he had been,” Rajan told me in an interview for a Radio 4 programme to be aired this month. He’d even begun researching a presentation about “all the wonderful things that had happened” in finance under Greenspan’s reign. Except the closer he looked, the more frightened he became.Voters moaned about politicians looking and sounding the same, but for Wall Street, it was a huge plusRelated: Ten years on, how countries that crashed are faringRelated: What happens when ordinary people learn economics? | Aditya Chakrabortty Continue reading...

The UK is the fifth most unequal country in Europe but has taken steps to reduce disparities of income

IPPR commission suggests changes on a par with Labour’s post-war reforms

Thinktank commission calls for reviving trade unions and raising the minimum wage

Theresa May danced across the continent – but the UK needs to stop arrogantly assuming Africa will fill the Brexit trade gapWhile the British media dined out on Theresa May’s Africa trip last week, Africans are still reeling from the reporting. Sky News captioned Uhuru Kenyatta as “president of Africa”, while the BBC gave the title he should have had, “president of Kenya”, to his rival, Raila Odinga.There are a million metaphors in Britons declaring an African superstate based in Kenya – who knew our broadcasters were such pan-Africanists? – and declaring an Odinga coup. But the reality is that there is widespread cluelessness in Britain about the political and economic situation across the continent today, and it shows.Related: May's gawky, awkward moves in Africa not confined to dance steps Continue reading...

The Treasury committee is questioning BoE governor Mark Carney about the UK economy, and his own future

When I was in care the system was strained. A Manchester Evening News report shows that it’s now all but brokenI grew up in care, alongside 20 other children with whom I shared foster homes and children’s homes in Manchester. In May, I wrote a piece for the Guardian about the time I spent looking for those kids later in life. I only managed to find a handful, but all of those I did see again – 15 years later – had grappled with severe hardship since leaving the care system.Related: Revealed: cash crisis pushing child services to tipping pointRelated: I tried to track down all the friends I grew up with in care – here’s what I found Continue reading...

President Macri will raise export taxes and slash spending in push to reduce budget deficitArgentina has announced sweeping new austerity measures in an attempt to stem its unfolding currency crisis, prior to receiving $50bn (£38.8bn) of funding from the International Monetary Fund.Speaking as the peso dropped to a fresh record low on Monday, President Mauricio Macri said the country was facing an economic emergency that would require austerity measures to resolve. Argentina will slash spending and raise export taxes in a push to accelerate reductions to its budget deficit.Related: Markets are all about the timing – and Argentina got clocked Continue reading...

August figures dragged down by fall in exports and optimism for year ahead at 22-month lowBritain’s manufacturers face a difficult autumn as the Brexit deadline looms and Donald Trump’s trade sanctions hit exports, according to figures for the sector in August.A survey of manufacturers has found that growth slowed last month to its lowest level since July 2016, dragged down by a shock fall in exports.Related: Car manufacturing in Britain fell by 11% in July, reports SMMT Continue reading...

Former Trump White House chief strategist says populist surge a ‘global revolution’ that is coming to AustraliaAustralia is on the “frontlines” of an economic war with China, a “totalitarian mercantilist” regime that must be confronted, according to former Trump White House chief strategist Steve Bannon.In a wide-ranging interview on ABC’s Four Corners, Bannon also said that the populist surge that swept Donald Trump to the US presidency and delivered the vote for Brexit in the UK was a “global revolution” that was coming to Australia.Related: Steve Bannon plans foundation to fuel far right in EuropeRelated: Hard-right columnists with no mass audience cause enough turmoil to ruin leaders | Jason Wilson Continue reading...

Bikers are getting older and the chill from the president’s tariffs is getting colder – what’s an American icon to do?Milwaukee is a pretty city. On any normal day, visitors can walk around the genteel downtown area, taking in a slew of neo-gothic buildings, or look to the east, where sailboats bob on Lake Michigan.

Financialised capitalism has failed, and cannot be fixed by more and better regulation

The World Trade Organisation is already hurtling towards a crisis, with the US having blocked new appeal judgesThe World Trade Organisation is hurtling towards crisis. Set up more than two decades ago to break down protectionist barriers and to ensure countries play by the rules of international commerce, the WTO is firmly in Donald Trump’s isolationist sights.Up to now, the White House has been waging war by stealth. Trump has garnered the big headlines for his broadsides against China, the European Union, and Canada, while at the same time conducting a quiet war against the WTO. Continue reading...

Lenders will continue to offer payday loans, because the number of people living precarious lives is still risingThe demand for Wonga-like payday lenders is only going to rise and rise. Blame the digital age and its emphasis on speed and flexibility in all things.Wonga, which sank on Thursday under a mountain of compensation claims, is likely to rise from the ashes in a new guise and compete again with the many other financial firms offering instant loans at huge interest rates. The target market – that of people on low to average incomes who live from one micro-job to the next – is only going to get bigger. Wonga failed because it was too greedy and at times crossed the ethical line. Under a new management, a firm that plays it straight could still prosper.Every year, more jobs that were once full-time and salaried are converted to being part-time and self-employed Continue reading...

Cash-starved councils are being forced to cut the early interventions that might keep vulnerable children out of careFor decades, local councils have been responsible for maintaining the safety net of last resort for those most susceptible to falling through the cracks. Vulnerable children at risk of neglect or abuse, older people who can’t afford care, adults with disabilities, the homeless: all rely on local, rather than central, government for support. When councils fail in their responsibilities, the consequences can be horrific. Who can forget Baby P, the toddler who, among other injuries, suffered a broken back, a fractured shinbone and a ripped ear before he died at the hands of his carers in 2007? Or Victoria Climbié, subject to months of torture then murder in 2000?The Observer is the world's oldest Sunday newspaper, founded in 1791. It is published by Guardian News & Media and is editorially independent.

Chancellors have fought shy of reforming a system in which higher-rate taxpayers benefit most. But £10bn could be savedPensions tax relief is a juicy morsel for the chancellor should he find a way to make it benefit the exchequer. Even a small slice of the £38bn spent each year subsidising pension saving could help thousands of schools and hundreds of hospitals that would otherwise be starved of cash.A £10bn saving is not outside the bounds of possibility, and that is without even shaking the system to its foundations. All Philip Hammond needs to do in his autumn budget is take away the tax relief top-up offered to higher-rate taxpayers and the £10bn a year can be his.Tax reliefs share the same​ thinking, which is that people won’t do the right thing without a ​​huge bung from the state Continue reading...

After Aston Martin declared its bullish post-EU intentions last week, here are some other captains of industry who are sanguine about the futureThe majority of big British business leaders are worried about the potential fallout from a no-deal Brexit. But amid the warnings over jobs losses, withheld investments, weaker economic growth and political unrest, some captains of industry are more sanguine.Last week, Aston Martin shrugged off concerns over Brexit damaging the British car industry and announced its flotation plans, while household appliance maker Dyson has earmarked a £200m expansion of its research campus to test electric cars, with enough space for 2,000 people. Here are some of the British business figures who believe Brexit will not be negative for the economy. Continue reading...

Turkish lira falls 4% against US dollar as concerns grow of crises in emerging marketsArgentina has hiked interest rates to 60% as it takes dramatic steps to restore confidence in its plunging currency,in the latest sign of turmoil among emerging market economies this year.The Argentine central bank raised the cost of borrowing by 15 percentage points on Thursday in an attempt to shore up the peso, which has plummeted in value. The central bank said it would keep rates unchanged at 60% until at least December.Related: Emerging markets: who's taking the biggest hits and why? Continue reading...

Mauricio Macri gambled on IMF rescue package shoring up currency – but dealers saw it as a sign of weaknessTiming is everything in financial markets. And Argentina’s embattled president, Mauricio Macri, just got it spectacularly wrong.Late on Wednesday, it emerged that Macri had asked the International Monetary Fund to speed up the disbursement of its $50bn (£38bn) rescue package for South America’s second biggest economy. Coming at the end of a day that had seen the peso fall heavily against the US dollar, the announcement was intended to shore up confidence.What is the IMF?Related: Argentina raises interest rates to 60% to shore up peso Continue reading...

Free trade deal between US, Mexico and Canada has proved contentious since its launchThe North American Free Trade Agreement between the US, Mexico and Canada has bound the economies of the two countries together for more than 20 years, enabling the free flow of goods. Continue reading...

Michael Holmes and Geoff Naylor respond to a Guardian article by Larry ElliottLarry Elliott is right to say that “the left had its chance and blew it” after the economic crash, and right to identify the left’s lack of a clear and united narrative as one of the main reasons for this (Opinion, 30 August). Instead, the different strands of the left “all headed off in their own directions”, as Elliott says. It is worth exploring this in a little more detail and picking out two key problems.One of the biggest obstacles to developing a common left framework was the fact that during the crisis, social democratic parties throughout Europe kept on going into right-led coalitions which were implementing cuts and austerity programmes. The subsequent collapses of the social democratic parties in Ireland, the Netherlands, France, Germany and other countries all bear witness to this. Continue reading...

Canadians feel stabbed in the back by Mexico after it agreed a separate trade deal with TrumpIt is a threat that has loomed since Donald Trump took power, bursting into view each time the US president attacks Canada’s trade policies. But this week Canadians have been forced to confront the possibility of a breakdown in trade relations with their closest ally and biggest trading partner, after the US president announced a preliminary deal with Mexico.The news left Canadians reeling and sent the country’s foreign minister rushing to Washington DC in the hope of salvaging the decades-old North American Free Trade Agreement (Nafta) – a three-way deal between the US, Canada and Mexico. The stakes for Canada are sky-high; the country sends three quarters of its exports south of the border while roughly 2.5m Canadian jobs depend on US trade.There are no poison pills left — only bitter ones for Canada to swallowRelated: Nafta: what is it and why is Trump trying to renegotiate? Continue reading...

While regulation has been strengthened since the crisis, its implementation remains patchyAs the 10th anniversary of the start of the global financial crisis approaches, a wave of retrospective reviews is bearing down on us. Many of them will try to answer the big question: has the financial system been fundamentally reformed, so that we can be confident of preventing a repeat of the dismal and destructive events of 2008-09, or has the crisis been allowed to go to waste?There will be no consensus answer to that question. Some will argue that the post-crisis reforms, especially those concerning banks’ capital requirements, have gone too far, and that the costs in terms of output have been too high. Others will argue that far more must be done, that banks need far higher capital, and possibly, as the proponents of a recent Swiss referendum argued, that banks should lose their ability to create money.Related: Weak economic recovery was down to flawed policies, not secular stagnation | Joseph Stiglitz Continue reading...

Costly banknote recall did not flush out untaxed wealth, as PM Narendra Modi had promisedMore than 99% of the currency that India declared void in a surprise announcement in 2016 was returned to the country’s banks in subsequent weeks, according to a Reserve Bank of India (RBI) report.The figures suggest prime minister Narendra Modi’s demonetisation policy, which likely wiped at least 1% from the country’s GDP and cost at least 1.5m jobs, failed to wipe significant hordes of unaccounted wealth from the Indian economy — a key rationale for the move.Related: India's banknote ban: how Modi botched the policy yet kept his political capitalRelated: India's small businesses facing 'apocalypse' amid biggest financial experiment in historyRelated: India's slowing growth blamed on 'big mistake' of demonetisation Continue reading...

Trade body calls for ‘political and economic clarity’ after sharp reduction in UK demandThe number of cars built in UK factories slumped by 11% last month compared with a year ago.Just over 121,000 cars left production lines, with a fall of 35% in models built for the UK, according to the latest figures from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT). Car production for export in July fell by 4.2%.Related: Aston Martin unveils London Stock Exchange flotation Continue reading...

Capitalism’s near-death experience with the banking crisis was a golden opportunity for progressives. But they blew itPlacards are being prepared. Photo-opportunities are being organised. A list of demands is being drawn up by a coalition of pressure groups, unions and NGOs. Yes, preparations are well under way for protests to mark next month’s 10th anniversary of the collapse of Lehman Brothers – the pivotal moment in the global financial crisis.Make no mistake, the fact that events will take place in all the world’s financial centres is no cause for celebration. On the contrary, it is a sign of failure. The banks were never broken up. Plans for a financial transactions tax are gathering dust. Politicians toyed with the idea of a green new deal and then promptly forgot about it. There never was a huge swing of the pendulum away from the prevailing orthodoxy, just a brief nudge that was quickly reversed. The brutal fact is that the left had its chance, and it blew it.Related: Labour condemns 'sickening' Lehman Brothers reunion partyThe process of challenging business as usual lacked a unifying analysis of what had caused the crisisRelated: The Lehman Brothers party is a red herring – it’s the system that stinks | Stefan Stern Continue reading...

President Mauricio Macri says ‘lack of trust from the markets’ forces him to ask for help as peso weakens and inflation runs at 30%Argentina’s President Mauricio Macri has asked the International Monetary Fund for an early release of funds from a $50bn deal to ease concerns that the country will not be able to meet its debt obligations for 2019.Macri said in a televised address that Argentina had agreed with the IMF “to advance all necessary funds to guarantee compliance with next year’s financial programme”.Related: Are debt crises in Argentina and Turkey a global warning sign?Related: Argentina agrees to $50bn loan from IMF amid national protests Continue reading...

The UK’s economic future requires more than one city to boast full gamut of jobs. That takes planningThe warning that property values in London will fall this year and next will bring a smile to many who believe house prices have run out of control in the last 30 years.The added warning of a possible full-blown crash in the capital if Britain leaves the European Union without striking a deal will only turn the smile into a beaming grin. For some it is enough to persuade them that a no-deal Brexit is the best thing that could happen to the country.Related: Aston Martin races to become player as global luxury brand Continue reading...

Land now 51% of UK’s net worth – a huge transfer of wealth to landowners, say campaignersA dramatic rise in land values pushed Britain’s wealth to a fresh high of more than £10tn last year, highlighting the huge gains made by developers in property hotspots across the UK.From London and the home counties to Cambridge and popular parts of Devon and Cornwall, land values have become the single largest element of wealth, dwarfing household wealth locked up in property and financial savings. Continue reading...

The US economy also recorded its strongest economic growth since 2014, according to revised second quarter figuresThe US economy recorded its strongest economic growth in nearly four years in the three months to the end of June, according to revised figures.Gross domestic product increased at a 4.2% annualized rate, the commerce department said on Wednesday after revising its second-quarter calculations, establishing the quarter as the strongest in terms of growth since late 2014. Many economists had forecast a downward revision of growth to about 4%.Related: How a Wall Street bull run that smashed all the records evolved Continue reading...

Lesson to be learned from 2008 financial crisis is that the challenge was – and is - politicalIn the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, some economists argued that the US, and perhaps the global economy, was suffering from “secular stagnation” – an idea first conceived in the aftermath of the Great Depression. Economies had always recovered from downturns, but the Great Depression had lasted an unprecedented length of time. Many believed the economy recovered only because of government spending on the second world war and many feared that with the end of the war, the economy would return to its doldrums.Something, it was believed, had happened, such that even with low or zero interest rates, the economy would languish. For reasons now well understood, these dire predictions fortunately turned out to be wrong.Related: US will lack fiscal space to respond when next recession comesPolicymakers failed to do enough even to prevent poor households from losing their homes Continue reading...

Markets remain edgy despite strong US economic growth and trade deal with Mexico2.07pm BSTUS economic growth was slightly stronger than expected in the second quarter, coming in at 4.2% rather than 4%. Meanwhile the hope that Canada will join the new trade agreement between the US and Mexico is giving some support to stock markets, although concerns about Italy’s financial position and worries about Spanish banks’ exposure to Turkey are limiting the gains in Europe.2.02pm BSTA quick view from ING strategist Viraj Patel:So $EURUSD barely moves a pip after the 2Q US GDP release (which was revised up to 4.2%). This is not a market driven by economics... it's all politics #SummerLull #backtoschool (next week) pic.twitter.com/neWH9AEA4r1.53pm BSTOverall strong US #GDP report with relatively modest revisions to Q2 estimates:

Spell of unusually cold winter weather followed by heatwave pushes up cost of fruit and vegBritain’s shop prices have risen for the first time in more than five years as the heatwave pushed up the cost of fruit and vegetables.The latest BRC-Nielsen figures show that overall shop prices rose 0.1% in August, entering inflationary territory for the first time since April 2013. Continue reading...

The weekly 5km runs are a global phenomenon. But they were born out of a desire to change lives without charging for itEvery Saturday morning at 9am sharp a little bit of anarchy breaks out across the country. This being Britain, it happens, naturally enough, in our parks. Not that it’s billed as such. It’s meant to be a 5km run, which is why at Richmond Park in south-west London this morning the grass is carpeted with well over 400 people in sports gear. But it has none of the intensity you’d expect at a track or even on a gym treadmill. One woman tugs balloons, to celebrate her 100th run; others prepare to push baby buggies or keep pace with their dogs. Although supported by the charity Parkrun, this and the 559 other events across the UK set to start in a few minutes are entirely self-organised.What they share is an ethos. Parkruns are free to all, and all are treated equally. No hierarchy intrudes between the hares and the tortoises, the old-timers and the debs. Members volunteer to mark the course or keep time or to aid stragglers. So early this morning, as the weekend still brims with promise, on these hectares of parkland owned by the Queen, a little anarchist world briefly comes into focus. One devoid of government nagging or corporate profiteering, but reliant instead on mutual aid and human kindness.Related: How one community beat the system, and rebuilt their shattered streets | Aditya ChakraborttyRelated: Parkrun makes us fitter, but can it make us happier as well?Related: Meet Britain’s Willy Wonkas: the ideas factory that could save UK industry | Aditya Chakrabortty Continue reading...

Agreement eases uncertainty but president threatens tariffs on Canada if it does not sign up

The economy is doing well but the US is in a weak position to manage the inevitable shockThe US economy is doing well. But the next recession – and there is always another recession – could be very bad.

Two former members of Bank of England’s rate-setting committee give views on UK growth

Each month we look at key indicators to see what effect the Brexit process has on growth, prosperity and trade

The latest monthly Guardian analysis finds the UK economy failing to deliver on wage growth

Senior business leader says effects would be much more serious than UK admitsMany businesses in Germany are still hoping the UK reverses its decision to leave the EU, according to one of the country’s top business leaders, who also warned of the dangers of a no-deal Brexit.“The risk of a hard [no-deal] Brexit is growing by the day,” said Joachim Lang, the head of the Federation of German Industries (BDI), in a wide-ranging interview with the Rheinische Post newspaper. “Every business would do well to prepare for this worst-case scenario.”