Heather Stewart and Anushka Asthana discuss the cabinet shake-up, plus Sonia Sodha, Torsten Bell and Neal Lawson on the concept of a universal basic incomeIt was supposed to be a reshuffle to freshen up the cabinet. Instead Theresa May had an education secretary storming off to the backbenches, the wrong chairman accidentally announced on Twitter and others refusing to budge.Heather Stewart and Anushka Asthana discuss the strategy behind the prime minister’s shake-up – and why it went so badly. Continue reading...

Labour appears to be coming round to the idea of trying to maintain the status quo in our trading relationship with Europe. That would be a mistakeIn less than 15 months the UK will be a third country, a non-EU member. A debate is currently raging about what customs relationship the UK should have with the EU after Brexit. The government’s view is we should leave the EU’s customs union, allowing the UK to sign new trade deals. Blairite figures and Corbyn critics, including Chuka Umunna, are keen to keep things after Brexit as similar as possible to before. They have already called for the UK to stay in the customs union (and the single market). A story in yesterday’s Times suggested that Labour was likely to switch its position “by spring” to back staying in a modified version of the European customs union.Related: Labour must say it: Britain should stay in the single market after Brexit | Chuka UmunnaRelated: David Davis’s petulant leaked letter is the latest slice of Brexit cakeism | Jonathan Lis Continue reading...

Analysis commissioned by London mayor predicts ‘lost decade’ of slump and lower employment with hard BrexitA no-deal Brexit could cause the UK to lose half a million jobs and nearly £50bn in investment by 2030, according to an economic forecast commissioned by the mayor of London, Sadiq Khan.The report, which models five possible scenarios for leaving the EU ranging from a near-status-quo situation to leaving on World Trade Organisation terms without any transition agreement, warns that the worst option could be a “lost decade” of economic slump.Staying in the single market and customs union Continue reading...

Readers respond to a piece by the Guardian’s economics editor Larry Elliott and a letter from Oxford University professor Robert GildeaOnce again Larry Elliott hits the nail on the head with his plea for remainers to move on (Remainers got it wrong: there is no buyer’s remorse, 8 January).Even now there is a complete reluctance to understand the true nature of the EU. Do remainers really believe that the four freedoms to move goods, capital, services and labour were ever introduced in the interests of workers? The continual harping on about the lies of Brexiteers ignores the bigger truth that the EU is, and always will be, unreformable, neoliberal and hugely damaging to our economy. The EU treaties have allowed the capitalist class to cut public spending, privatise, and sell our assets abroad. They threw in a few sops in terms of workers’ rights that we could have won ourselves through union action, to persuade us of some nonexistent liberal aspect to the EU.Denying that immigration was responsible for low wages and job losses, and describing claims to the contrary as a fraud, is simply delusionalThe hallowed 'freedom of movement' has allowed large-scale farms to employ agricultural workers from the poorest regions of Europe at the lowest possible rate Continue reading...

Costing double the price of a whole vegetable and shrouded in layers of plastic, ‘clean eating’ product fails to make the cutMarks & Spencer has withdrawn its “cauliflower steak” product from sale after it was ridiculed by consumers for its “excessive” plastic packaging and inflated price.The sliced cauliflower, which comes in plastic packaging with a separate sachet of lemon and herb drizzle, was being sold for twice the price of a whole, single cauliflower at the supermarket chain.

Longest period of rising manufacturing output in 23 years contributed to fastest growth rate since late 2016, Niesr estimatesThe longest spell of rising output from Britain’s factories in 23 years has left the economy on course to record its fastest rate of growth since late 2016, one of the country’s leading thinktanks has forecast.The National Institute of Economic and Social Research said it was pencilling in expansion in gross domestic product of 0.6% in the final quarter of 2017, up from 0.4% in the previous three months and above the latest City estimates. Continue reading...

Photographer Andy Hall braved the cold and the crowds in the West End to snap bargain hunters over the festive season Continue reading...

After better than expected growth in the global economy, Bank says financial markets are vulnerable to unforeseen negative newsFinancial markets are complacent about the risks of sharply higher interest rates that could be triggered by better than expected growth in the global economy this year, the World Bank has warned.The Washington-based organisation said that much of the rich west was running at full capacity as a result of a broad-based upswing in activity, but were now vulnerable to a period of rising inflation that would prompt action from central banks.Inflation is when prices rise. Deflation is the opposite – price decreases over time – but inflation is far more common.Lenders have already bumped up the cost of fixed rate mortgages ahead of the Bank of England’s decision to raise base rate from 0.25% to 0.5%, and mortgage borrowers on tracker and variable rates will see their monthly payments become more expensive in the coming days. ​Related: A record-breaking year - the global economy in 10 charts Continue reading...

Professor Steve Schifferes says a citizens’ wealth fund in the UK could be the key to boosting productivity, tackling inequality, and giving citizens a new sense of control over their lives. Plus Michael Gold says that if the tech giants paid tax properly there would be no $1tn company on the horizonI strongly endorse your editorial (30 December) suggesting that a UK citizens’ wealth fund could make a major contribution to reversing the worrying growth in inequality, particularly wealth inequality, in the last few decades. The estimates by my project team suggest that it would be feasible to create a £1tn citizens’ wealth fund within a generation, partly based on making better use of our estimate of £3tn in publicly owned assets. In our view, such a “Next Generation Fund” could make an important contribution to reducing intergenerational inequality as well, and ensure that an increased level of public spending and public investment can be afforded in the future when the revenue that can be raised from taxation will be constrained by the increase in the number of older people relative to those in work.As well as the successful implementation of such schemes in countries as diverse as Norway, Singapore and Australia, they also exist on a smaller scale in the UK, including the Shetland and Orkney trusts and the crown estate. I believe that introducing a citizens’ wealth fund in the UK – not run by the government but by the people – could be the key to boosting productivity, tackling inequality, and giving citizens a new sense of control over their lives. The idea deserves cross-party support.

All the day’s economic and financial news.

Treasury committee chair Nicky Morgan demands clarification on how British businesses can avoid paying VAT upfront when they import goods post-BrexitThe government has come under pressure to reveal the impact on more than 130,000 UK firms of rules due to take effect after Brexit that will force them to pay VAT upfront for the first time on all goods imported from the European Union.Nicky Morgan, the Tory chair of the influential Treasury select committee, has demanded to know what contingency plans were being made to avoid the extra cost of the rule change hitting UK firms.Staying in the single market and customs union Continue reading...

British Retail Consortium blames inflation for meagre rise in spending on gifts with shoppers spending more on essentialsHigh street spending in the run-up to Christmas increased at the slowest rate since 2012 after spiralling prices forced shoppers to spend more of their earnings on food and essential items.Figures from the British Retail Consortium (BRC) sent a worrying signal to non-food retailers, in a week of crucial trading updates for the sector, as they showed that consumers reined in their spending on furniture, clothes and footwear in December.Inflation is when prices rise. Deflation is the opposite – price decreases over time – but inflation is far more common.Like-for-like sales have become the benchmark in the City for judging the current performance of retailers. Typically represented as percentage growth rates, like-for-like sales measure sales at stores that have been open for at least a year, stripping out the impact of sales at newer stores. The idea is that they allow a more transparent comparison of a retailer’s sales performance over a certain period of time, when compared with the same period of time a year earlier. Continue reading...

Bank of England and financial watchdog found 89% of card debt was held by consumers also in debt two years agoBritish consumers are trapped by credit card debt for longer than previously thought, according to a study by officials at the Bank of England and the City regulator, as unsecured borrowing reaches levels unseen since the financial crisis.Analysis by the Bank and the Financial Conduct Authority showed it was common for people to remain in debt even after paying off one of their credit cards, as they shift debts from one lender to another. Previously, Threadneedle Street had believed that credit cards were paid off more quickly, particularly in relation to mortgages. Continue reading...

A majority of companies polled expect global demand and growth in export markets to sustain order booksBritain’s manufacturers are more upbeat about the state of the global economy than at any time since 2014 and believe demand from overseas will sustain their businesses through another year of Brexit uncertainty, a survey has shown.The poll by the manufacturers’ organisation EEF and the insurance firm AIG found 40% of the companies questioned were planning for growth in 2018 while 19% were expecting a downturn in their business.Related: Brexit: why the UK economy hasn't led to buyer's remorse Continue reading...

The move is the latest setback for the struggling fashion retailer, whose credit rating was downgraded to junk status in DecemberNew Look is coming under fresh pressure after an insurer stopped selling cover against insolvency to its suppliers, in the latest sign of difficulties for retailers amid a squeeze on consumers’ spending power.The troubles for the high-street fashion chain come after a difficult Christmas for many leading retailers. Continue reading...

The recession meant to make leave voters regret decision has failed to materialise – with majority of people having moved onWe’ve all been there: that moment when you get home and realise you didn’t want that new jumper and couldn’t really afford it either. It is known as buyer’s remorse, and it was a concept that gave the remain camp comfort as it reeled from the shock of defeat in the EU referendum vote in June 2016.In the context of Brexit, buyer’s remorse meant that people who had voted to leave would quickly regret what they had done because the economy would plunge instantly into the stonking recession predicted by the Treasury in the run-up to the plebiscite. Project Fear was actually Project Reality, it was said, and before too long Brexit voters would be clamouring for the chance to think again.Related: Good for factories, bad for shoppers: a Brexit pattern is emergingThe absence of economic Armageddon has simply reinforced the lack of trust in expert forecastersRelated: UK economy in 2018: steady growth tempered by Brexit politicsRelated: UK companies will face huge new VAT burden after Brexit Continue reading...

Revamping shops to prop up a town centre is the wrong approach: retailing will improve on its own if cities can attract employers or prosperous commutersIf Christmas showed us anything, it is that the high street is dying in most of our towns and many of our cities. Figures emerging from the main high-street shops covering the Christmas trading period show that a combination of falling disposable incomes and internet shopping seriously dented sales.Next was one of the first fashion retailers to reveal that its festive cheer had all been online, where sales rose 13.6%. Its high-street stores suffered a 6.1% slump. Continue reading...

Controversial changes in bill would force importers to pay duty upfront on EU goodsMore than 130,000 UK firms will be forced to pay VAT upfront for the first time on all goods imported from the European Union after Brexit, under controversial legislation to be considered by MPs on Monday.The VAT changes spelled out in the taxation (cross-border trade) bill – one of a string of Brexit laws passing through parliament – are causing uproar among UK business groups, which say that they will create acute cashflow problems and huge additional bureaucracy.Related: Hammond refuses to rule out customs union with EU after Brexit Continue reading...

Shares keep rallying even though the latest American Non-Farm Payroll is mediocre, with fewer new jobs created than expected

Fewer people working fewer hours but creating same output explains surprise gain, but productivity remains well below pre-financial crisis trendThe productivity of British workers has increased at the fastest rate in more than six years, handing the government a rare boost in correcting one of the biggest problems facing the UK economy.Labour productivity, or economic output per hour worked, grew by 0.9% in the three months to September 2017, the Office for National Statistics said. Economists said the jump came thanks to stronger growth in factory output, weaker jobs growth and the UK economy generating broadly the same amount of output for fewer hours worked.Productivity is an economic measure of the efficiency of a workforce. It typically measures the level of output per hour of work, or per worker.Related: UK’s poorest to fare worst in age of automation, thinktank warns Continue reading...

US jobs report boosts Wall Street, services lift UK shares and Japan’s Nikkei rises to 26-year high as as equity markets rally around the worldThe Dow Jones Industrial Average has gone above the 25,000 mark for the first time, on another day of surging share prices on stock markets across the US, Europe and Asia.In the UK the FTSE 100 closed at a record high on Thursday, tracking gains for equity markets around the world on a day when Japanese shares hit the highest level in 26 years. Continue reading...

All the day’s economic and financial news, as America’s stock market rallies after a strong day in Tokyo

Forecast slowdown in sector not as bad as feared with business growing more confident but British firms say growth remains sluggishBritain’s services sector, including hotels and banks, grew at a faster rate than expected last month, setting the economy on course for its strongest quarter in 2017 despite mounting fears over the challenges ahead from Brexit.A hard Brexit would take Britain out of the EU’s single market and customs union and ends its obligations to respect the four freedoms, make big EU budget payments and accept the jurisdiction of the ECJ: what Brexiters mean by “taking back control” of Britain’s borders, laws and money. It would mean a return of trade tariffs, depending on what (if any) FTA was agreed. See our full Brexit phrasebook.Inflation is when prices rise. Deflation is the opposite – price decreases over time – but inflation is far more common. Continue reading...

In 2017 inequality was highlighted like never before. Now we need to open our political imaginations to determine what a more equal world really isHighlighting inequalities was something 2017 was very good at: from #MeToo’s exposure of systematic sexism stretching way beyond Hollywood, to the president of the IMF warning against rising levels of economic inequality, to the incendiary visuals of Black Lives Matter.But this year, how should such outrage be extended into imagining, and creating, true equality? It’s often harder to answer this question than to point out specific examples of inequality.Related: The Inequality Project: the Guardian's in-depth look at our unequal world Continue reading...

Low mortgage rates and property shortage prevents bigger slowdown, as London prices fall for first time in eight yearsUK house prices increased just 2.6% in 2017 while prices in London fell for the first time in eight years, according to the leading mortgage lender Nationwide.This followed an increase of 4.5% in 2016 and was the slowest rate of annual growth since 2012, as households constrained by falling real pay grew increasingly reluctant to commit to major spending decisions.Related: Six factors influencing the UK property market in 2018 Continue reading...

Institute for Fiscal Studies warns above-inflation increases give employers a greater incentive to replace workers with robotsAbove-inflation increases in Britain’s minimum wage are putting a growing number of workers at risk of being replaced by machines, one of the country’s leading thinktanks has warned.The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) said the proportion of the workforce covered by the minimum wage was likely to triple to 12% between 2015 and 2020 – drawing in groups vulnerable to automation such as receptionists and shop checkout operators.Related: UK’s poorest to fare worst in age of automation, thinktank warns Continue reading...

UK building figures show first slowdown since September, while German jobs data beats forecasts and Next Christmas trading is better than expected2.34pm GMTAfter Tuesday’s disappointing UK manufacturing survey, the construction data for December was also underwhelming. The IHS/Markit construction PMI saw a slowdown in growth for the first time since September. All eyes will now be on the UK services figures due out on Thursday to get a clear snapshot of how the country’s economy performed in the final month of 2017.Earlier there was positive news from Germany, with the jobless rate at a record low of 5.5%.2.32pm GMTThe record breaking run on Wall Street continues, at least as far as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are concerned.The S&P is up 0.11% and Nasdaq 0.15% better at the open, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average is 0.02% higher in early trading.1.13pm GMTThe pattern of a rise in European markets and a slight dip in the FTSE 100 continues. Markets appear to have shrugged off any worries about the new regulatory regime - Mifid II - which comes into effect today. Mike van Dulken and Henry Croft at Accendo Markets said:Global equities are generally positive as investors calmly digest the impact of the vast MiFID II regulation taking effect across the globe, while trading volumes gradually return following the New Year. German stocks are outperforming as the US dollar rebounds from its lows, denting Euro strength to aid the region’s exporting names, while the flat FTSE 100 comes as a result of GBP/USD weakness offsetting GBP/EUR strength.The rollout of new rules on Wednesday that aim to make European Union financial markets safer and more transparent has been glitch-free so far, though disruptions cannot be ruled out, the EU’s markets watchdog said.The new regime shines a spotlight on the inner workings of stock, bond, commodity and derivatives markets by forcing banks, asset managers and traders to provide detailed information on trillions of euros in transactions.12.46pm GMTOil is edging higher again, helped by the output caps from Opec and Russia and concerns about the protests in Iran.Brent crude is currently up 0.63% to $66.99 a barrel, having earlier climbed as high as $67.08.12.02pm GMTHere’s our story on the UK construction figures, from Richard Partington:Britain’s construction industry is its least optimistic for five years amid fears over Brexit and an economic slowdown, according to a survey.Despite some pockets of strength as building firms won the most work for several months in December, the balance of companies expecting a rise in output levels over the next 12 months was the weakest recorded since mid-2013, according to the Markit/Cips UK construction PMI.Related: UK construction industry optimism slumps to five-year low, survey reveals11.50am GMTAnd here’s more from IHS Markit’s economist on the construction data:PMI survey shows a worrying trend of UK commercial #construction falling for a sixth month running in December, illustrating how uncertainty is curbing business investment. Read more at https://t.co/2034WC6ffd pic.twitter.com/NR80UN8LDO11.45am GMTConnor Campbell, financial analyst at Spreadex, said:A construction sector slip did little for either the FTSE or pound this Wednesday morning.Like Tuesday’s manufacturing figure, the most recent construction PMI fell short of expectations, coming in at 52.2 against the 52.8 forecast and the 53.1 seen in November. While neither of December’s PMIs have been disastrous, there’s nevertheless a slight whiff of disappointment that the robust levels seen in November couldn’t last a bit longer.11.22am GMTThe pound is holding up fairly well despite the weaker than expected UK construction data, with sterling down 0.18% against the dollar at $1.3562. But with underwhelming manufacturing figures on Tuesday following by these construction numbers, all eyes will be on the service sector data on Thursday for more insight into how the UK economy ended the year. William Anderson Jones, head of UK corporate dealing at RationalFX, said:Despite forecasts expecting an unchanged figure of 53.1, Construction PMI underwhelmed analysts after falling to 52.2 on the back of weaker housebuilding and a decline in commercial building. The pound was holding near yesterday’s highs against a weak dollar in the early hours of trading this morning as investors awaited the data, but the currency appears to have been able to shrug off the weak figures.Following yesterday’s unexpected dip in Manufacturing PMI and today’s weaker Construction data, investors will be looking for signs to help strengthen confidence in the UK’s economic outlook. As one of the strongest indicators of the health of the economy at the end of last year, analysts will be directing their attention to the release of Services PMI later this week.10.30am GMTBack with the construction PMIs, Balraj Sroya, sales trader at Foenix Partners, said:After a subpar PMI figure from the manufacturing industry yesterday that slipped from four-year highs, today’s construction PMI print followed suit, missing forecasts coming out at 52.2.While both sets of PMIs were above the crucial 50 level showing expansion in the sector, there was still doubt that stellar figures would be reached once again. Today’s figure is weighed down by the moderate downturn in commercial projects combined with stagnated expansion in the home building sector. However, investors are still forecasting an increase in construction activity throughout 2018, which fuels views that the UK economy saw an unexpected slowdown at the end of 2017 and is expected to get back on track shortly.10.16am GMTThe FTSE 100 has drifted lower after its initial gains thanks to UK retailers, and is now off 0.01%. Joshua Mahony, market analyst at IG, said:The FTSE has continued to flounder on the second trading day of 2018, even though the US, Asian, and mainland European markets have pushed higher. The disappointing UK construction PMI forms the second disappointing UK PMI survey is as many days, with the pound drifting marginally lower as a result. Unfortunately, the weaker pound has done little to help the FTSE, which has been dragged lower thanks to yet another poor showing from the miners thanks to ripples in the recent gold and copper resurgence story. The UK services PMI reading is due on Thursday morning, and a third disappointing survey would provide yet another reason to sell the pound.10.05am GMTMore reaction to the UK construction data. Here is Investec’s chief economist Philip Shaw:UK construction PMI stayed above 50 in December, but note that official ONS data show the sector in technical recession, having posted quarterly declines in both Q2 & Q3 last year. October’s figures were very soft as well. pic.twitter.com/CRG4u7vSLjA downbeat PMI in December capped off a difficult year for construction firms.The great unknown is what this year holds and how the economy will react to the next phase of the Brexit negotiations. In the second half of last year, many construction businesses focused on shoring up their balance sheets, putting them in the best possible position to invest and ride out any turbulence.9.43am GMTTim Moore, associate director at IHS Markit and author of the IHS Markit/CIPS Construction PMI said:The UK construction sector achieved a moderate expansion of business activity at the end of 2017, although the recovery remained uneven and slowed overall since November. Construction companies indicated that another strong contribution from house building helped to offset subdued civil engineering activity and reduced volumes of commercial work.Total new orders picked up at the fastest pace for seven months in December, which provides a positive signal for construction workloads in the short-term. Resilient demand and forthcoming project starts also led to greater job creation and the strongest increase in input buying for two years.9.39am GMTHere’s IHS Markit’s chief business economist:UK #construction #PMI at 52.2 in Dec, down from 53.1 in

Tech giants likely to pass record valuation if share price rises echo 2017 performance with Amazon, Google, Microsoft and Facebook in with a chanceThe race is on to become the world’s first trillion-dollar company, with all eyes fixed on tech giants such as Apple, Amazon, Facebook and Alphabet, the parent company of Google.Financial commentators and investors predict 2018 will herald the first firm with a stock market valuation of $1tn (£738bn) or more, if technology share prices continue to rise as strongly as in 2017.The race to become the first $1tn company has opened. Apple has the best shot to be the world's first trillion-dollar company. Requires just a 17% rise in market value from $860bn. The 5 other contenders are Microsoft, Google, Facebook, and Tencent. pic.twitter.com/JSdE4lmsCdRelated: As Amazon opens a guerrilla store, has the internet beaten the high street? Continue reading...

Anyone who has taken up the Pep and then the Isa every year from 1988 will have accumulated a completely tax-free investment portfolio of £508,000, writes Tom BrownYour year-end editorial exploring the iniquities of a society increasingly characterised by a growing new class of rentiers is timely (Redistribute the gains now hoarded by owners of capital, 30 December) but fails to name a single concrete measure that will effectively halt and reverse the trend. In this you are far from alone, as even John McDonnell shows not the slightest sign of grasping how the UK tax system has been stealthily tilted to create a tax haven for owners of capital under the falsehoods of “encouraging saving” and “taking the low paid out of tax”.Here is how it works: anyone who has taken up the annual personal equity plan (Pep) and then individual savings account (Isa) allowance every year from its inception under Nigel Lawson at £2,400 in 1988 to £20,000 under Philip Hammond today will have accumulated, assuming an extremely conservative average total return of 5% pa, a completely tax-free investment portfolio of £508,000 today, which will yield an annual tax-free income of over £25,000 pa without having put any of this capital at substantial risk of loss through real risk capital investment in start-up businesses or volatile emerging markets. When combined with a personal allowance of £11,500 and a standard rate of tax on taxable income up to £33,500, this means it is easy for a middle-class taxpayer in their late 50s to enjoy a gross income, all from onshore and legitimate sources, exceeding £100,000 pa and still not even incur an effective 20% tax rate on total income. To add to this feather-bedded luxury, the same taxpayer is likely to have benefited from tax relief on occupational pension contributions – despite the middle-class squeals of having been robbed of higher pensions by the taxman and pension fund managers – and can not only pass on windfall gains on property largely tax-free to children, but unspent tax-sheltered pension pots too. Continue reading...

New MiFID II rules seek to apply lessons from financial crisis and aim to force banks to report details of trillions of euros in transactionsBankers will work through the night to iron out last-minute hitches before Wednesday’s launch of a major change to European Union financial markets that aims to apply lessons from the financial crisis nearly a decade ago.

The latest UK figures suggest a modest rebalancing of the economy of the kind long wished for by policymakersThe UK economy has settled down into a post EU-referendum pattern. Consumer spending is being constrained by the fall in the value of the pound, which has pushed up inflation by making imports dearer. But manufacturing has started to do better, in part because the weakness of sterling has made exports cheaper.For many years, policymakers have longed wistfully for a rebalancing of the economy towards production rather than consumption. The latest survey of purchasing managers from CIPS/Markit shows that a modest re-adjustment is now under way. Continue reading...

Oil firm joins Goldman Sachs and Shell in declaring big hit in 2017 but admits controversial corporate tax cut will boost future earningsBP has said Donald Trump’s sweeping changes to US taxes will knock about $1.5bn (£1.1bn) off its profits for the end of 2017.The British oil company becomes the latest global firm to report a hit to its earnings from the US corporate tax rate cut, which came into effect at the start of the year after being signed into law in December. Barclays, Shell and Goldman Sachs have made similar statements in recent weeks.Related: Trump tax plan: the key points from the final billRelated: Sanders attacks tax plan as Trump celebrates with friends: 'You all just got a lot richer' Continue reading...

Rising inequality since the 1980s is clearly a serious problem that merits political attention. But focusing solely on trade is not the way to resolve itInequality has become a major political preoccupation in the advanced economies – and for good reason. In the US, according to the recently released World Inequality Report 2018, the share of national income claimed by the top 1% of the population rose from 11% in 1980 to 20% in 2014, compared to just 13% for the entire bottom half of the population. Qualitatively similar, though less pronounced, trends characterise other major countries such as France, Germany, and the UK.Related: Rising inequality? Don't blame the rich Continue reading...

Sector has best three months for growth since 2014 despite slight slip in Markit/Cips PMI figure for DecemberBritain’s manufacturers finished the year on a positive footing, with the strongest three months for growth since 2014 amid resurgent eurozone growth lifting demand for goods.The Markit/Cips UK manufacturing PMI barometer of factory sentiment showed an average of 57 in the three months to December, in the strongest reading since the three months to June 2014. While the gauge dipped to 56.3 last month from 58.2 in November, it remained firmly above the 50 level indicating expansion.Related: Good for factories, bad for shoppers: a Brexit pattern is emerging Continue reading...

Labour frontbencher says millions of families are seeing earnings squeezed so that chancellor can pretend to meet targetsJohn McDonnell has accused the government of relying on millions of British families going further into debt in order to meet Treasury targets.The shadow chancellor said families were set to borrow £445bn by the end of the parliament. He also highlighted official figures showing the ratio between household debt and income had reached a five-year high, with forecasts suggesting it will hit 150% by 2022. Continue reading...

Weak pound will help exports and cheap credit will allow consumers to keep calm and carry on, but it won’t be plain sailingForty years ago, Ian Dury and the Blockheads released Reasons to be Cheerful, Part 3 – listing some of the better things in life as Margaret Thatcher became prime minister in the months following the winter of discontent.Fast forward to the opening days of 2018 and fresh political tumult threatens to cripple Britain once more. There are, however, some reasons to be cheerful about the prospects for the UK economy. Despite the political to-and-fro of the past year, the UK economy enters 2018 in better health than many would have given it credit for.Related: A record-breaking year - the global economy in 10 chartsRelated: Some joy for the business world in 2018: but quite a few fears tooRelated: 2017's top business stories: Whole Foods, hackers and a giant rabbit Continue reading...

Jobs lay at the heart of the president’s campaign but, while employment has continued its Obama-era upward trend, the figures mask lurking structural issuesJobs! Jobs! Jobs! That was Donald Trump’s promise to America when he was elected president last November. So as we approach the end of Trump’s first year in office, how has the job market done?Related: End of the road: will automation put an end to the American trucker? Continue reading...

The powerful forces driving the current nationalist upheaval also present the prospect of a future only previously imagined by Huxley or OrwellMost readers will be familiar with Aldous Huxley’s vision of a dystopian future, Brave New World. Indeed, my contemporaries and I often find ourselves observing that this or that latest invention could have come straight out of Huxley’s nightmare vision.Given the reaction against the ill-effects of globalisation by those who have been left behind – but not left out of electoral and referendum polling booths – it was a clever idea of the British economist Stephen D King to produce a book earlier this year entitled Grave New World. Continue reading...

Predictions for the global economy next year are positive, but our writers also foresee a rise in inequality, and some sectors facing significant problemsThe consensus view among economists is that the global economy will put in a strong performance in 2018, carrying on its strong momentum from 2017. However, that does not mean that every sector and every company will have a trouble-free year. Ryanair’s Michael O’Leary will need to repair staff relations, jobs will leave the City of London and inequality will widen. Our financial and economic specialists predict the big stories in 2018. Continue reading...

A stock market boom, a bitcoin bubble, trade indices at recent highs, a low fear factor, even eurozone GDP is rising. But 2017 hasn’t been all good

Brexit talks progress and Trump tax cuts fuel boom as even fears of war in North Korea, upheaval in Europe and bitcoin bubble fail to dampen spiritsGlobal stock markets have ended 2017 on record highs, gaining $9tn (£6.7tn) in value over the year due to a strong worldwide economy, President Donald Trump’s tax cuts and central banks’ go-slow approach to easing financial support.The FTSE 100 hit a new peak in London, with an all-time closing Continue reading...

All the day’s economic and financial news, as investors count their profits on the final trading day of 2017

National Archives: private warning came just five weeks into Major’s premiership and 20 months before Black WednesdayMargaret Thatcher privately warned John Major that he was in danger of making a mistake of Churchillian proportions on exchange rate policy and risked pitching the British economy into recession, the cabinet papers reveal.Her warning to her anointed successor as prime minister came 20 months before “Black Wednesday”, when the pound crashed out of the European exchange rate mechanism in September 1992.Related: 'Oh dear': John Major's mild-mannered notes on briefing papers revealedRelated: For their eyes only: the secret stories ministers don’t want you to read | Richard Norton-Taylor Continue reading...

British workers to be worse off among wealthy nations as Brexit inflation diminishes pay, TUC analysis showBritain is set to have the worst wage growth of any wealthy nation next year, ranking behind Italy, Greece and Hungary, according to analysis by the TUC.The UK is forecast to come bottom from 32 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development wealthy nations for wage performance in 2018, according to the study of OECD figures by the unions’ umbrella group. Continue reading...

All the day’s economic and financial news, as South Korea pledges new regulations on cryptocurrency trading

From fears of City exodus to first interest rate rise in a decade, here’s a recap of the key events of 2017It will be remembered as the year Theresa May triggered article 50 and began the official countdown to Britain’s departure from the European Union. It was also the year of two budgets, one general election and the first UK interest rate rise in a decade. The year was littered with resignations, gaffes, boardroom bust-ups and takeovers, and if you had about $15,000 (£11,200) to spare you could buy one whole bitcoin. Take a look back at some of the significant stories of 2017.Just left Frankfurt. Great meetings, great weather, really enjoyed it. Good, because I'll be spending a lot more time there. #Brexit Continue reading...

Machines threaten jobs generating £290bn in wages and could widen inequality gap, according to IPPR

Adzuna study reports modest rise in average salary for job vacancies while CBI survey shows growth in economic outputThe British economy has received a double boost from reports showing signs of modest wage growth and accelerating output from businesses.According to a study by the jobs search engine Adzuna, the average salary for vacancies advertised online in November was 1.2% higher than the same month a year before – the first annual increase recorded by the website since June 2015. Meanwhile, a survey by the business group the CBI found firms reporting a rise in economic output.

All the day’s economic and financial news, as shares in London close at a new peak