11th-hour agreement ends months of dispute between the US and its closest neighboursThe US, Canada and Mexico have reached a deal to revamp the North American Free Trade Agreement (Nafta), ending months of bitter dispute between the world’s largest economy and its closest neighbours.Donald Trump declared the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) – the new name for the world’s second-biggest economic bloc behind the European Union – a “wonderful new trade deal”, which came through an 11th-hour agreement late on Sunday.Related: Markets rally as Trump hails 'biggest ever' trade deal with Canada and Mexico - as it happenedRelated: Trump professes love for Kim and hate for Kavanaugh torment in freewheeling speech Continue reading...

Keith Flett, Derrick Joad and Stan Zetie reflect on what Brexit could mean for the left. Plus George Osborn says the video games industry expressed its concerns about BrexitLarry Elliott highlights the minority case on the left for leaving the EU (The left case for leave is gaining strength as it becomes clear that this Europe is not for turning, 1 October). It is one I agree with in principle. The EU is a neoliberal institution, and while it may be possible to reform it, this seems to have dropped off the agenda of those on the left who argue for remaining in the EU. It would be highly likely to prove a serious obstacle to any progressive advance in the UK.That said, I voted remain because there is also a tactical argument to be had about when would be a good time to leave. At the moment we are most likely to be heading for a rightwing Brexit, stirring up racism and attacks on the conditions of those at work. It is true that the crisis in rightwing politics this is causing – witness this week’s Tory conference – could bring a general election and a victory for the left. If so, those who backed “lexit” – a leftwing exit from the EU – will be shown to have had a strong, if little heard, case.

Conservatives need to show themselves ‘worthy of the privilege’ of governing post-Brexit Britain, chancellor saysThe government’s growing concern at the challenge posed by Labour has been highlighted by Philip Hammond as the chancellor admitted that Jeremy Corbyn was asking questions the Conservatives needed to answer.Hammond joined other cabinet colleagues in warning that Labour’s policies would endanger the economy but said his own party needed to show itself “worthy of the privilege of governing post-Brexit Britain”.Related: Conservative conference: Hammond pledges digital services tax on web giants - Politics live Continue reading...

Christine Lagarde drops hint that fund will cut global growth forecast next weekThe head of the International Monetary Fund has sounded the alarm over the global economy, warning of an economic slowdown triggered by rising trade protectionism and soaring levels of debt.Christine Lagarde used a speech in Washington on Monday to drop the broadest possible hint that the IMF would cut its global growth forecast when it unveils its latest health check on the world economy next week.Related: How the IMF can manage the global economy better Continue reading...

Number of employees at large firms fell for second successive month in SeptemberBritain’s biggest manufacturers are cutting jobs and becoming increasingly reluctant to hire amid growing uncertainty over Brexit, according to a survey.The report from the IHS Markit and Chartered Institute of Procurement and Supply purchasing managers’ index found the number of employees working at large firms fell for a second successive month in September. Continue reading...

As a wealthy, warm country, the US would benefit from implementing a carbon tax to slow global warming

Only one-third of companies expecting to increase their investments, says reportBritish manufacturers are pulling back sharply on investment plans due to mounting uncertainty over Brexit and growing fears of a global trade war, a report has warned.Just one-third of companies said they planned to increase their investment in plant and machinery – a record low in the fifth annual survey carried out by the EEF manufacturers’ body and Santander Bank. Investment by small companies was particularly squeezed, with three-quarters saying they were having to mothball spending plans in the coming two years. Continue reading...

It’s easy to see why Corbyn and McDonnell are reluctant to put a remain option on a new ballotPolitics was once a simple affair. On one side were the lefties, unhappy with the status quo and agitating for something different. On the other side were the conservatives, suspicious of change. When it comes to Brexit, though, the natural order of things has been reversed. The right has come up with all sorts of visions – most of them dystopian – of Britain’s future outside the European Union. The left, for the most part, has spent its time praying for the vote in June 2016 to be reversed.It’s a bit more complicated than that. There are those on the left who understand that there was a reason people who had never voted before came out in their millions to vote for leave, and who say that something must be done for communities hollowed out by the failed policies of the past four decades. They even have a soundbite: tough on Brexit, tough on the causes of Brexit.The Left Case Against the EU by Costas Lapavitsas; PolityThe Left Case for Brexit by Philip Whyman; Civitas Continue reading...

Institution must strengthen its credibility as a responsive and effective leader – and listen to its membersImagine a world in which the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund were more client-driven. Ahead of the gathering – this year’s will take place in Indonesia in October – the IMF would solicit from its 189 member countries three key policy issues on which to focus, not only in official discussions but also in the numerous seminars that are held in parallel. The result would be an agenda that responded better to the continued anxiety that a growing number of policymakers – and populations – are feeling.For much of the decade since the global financial crisis erupted, countries worldwide have been subject to what London Business School’s Hélène Rey and others have called “the global factor”: a set of external influences that countries cannot manage or control but that play an important role in determining key domestic variables. This has generated economic and financial volatility that has complicated internal policy management, fuelled political polarisation, and exacerbated social divisions.Related: Are US stock market highs justified, or is there a bubble? | Robert ShillerThe IMF should assume a larger role in providing analysis and lead more effectively discussion in pivotal areas Continue reading...

A brave chancellor would ditch his fiscal rules next month and spend on welfare and schoolsAs Philip Hammond puts the finishing touches to his conference speech he may want to consider a total rewrite. Boring Phil needs to talk to the nation, not his party. It is time for the most senior one-nation Tory (Theresa May is a pretender to this crown) to be a bit more statesmanlike and think about people beyond the audience.That doesn’t look likely though. His announcement last week of an autumn budget (on 29 October), suggested he plans to stick to offering a “balanced approach” to debt “while supporting vital public services, and building a stronger, more prosperous economy”.Inaction would be the coward's way out. It would be much more statesmanlike to ditch his fiscal rules Continue reading...

It was billed as the finest such centre in Europe, but Salford’s once-buzzing ‘precinct’ is now home to charity shops, pawnbrokers and a few tenacious independent tradersA visit to the constituency of Rebecca Long-Bailey, the shadow business secretary, shows that Salford is one of those places around Britain where the high street is suffering the “slow and agonising death” she referred to in her conference speech.A couple of miles from Manchester city centre, a concrete high-rise looms over what is known locally as the “precinct”. A daubed red arrow points to “Salford Shopping City”, a 1960s-built complex that is home to a particularly depressing collection of charity shops, pawnshops and payday lenders.Related: Can Labour’s five-point plan rescue Britain’s high streets? Continue reading...

Proposals for 2019 put the country on a potential collision course with the EUFears that Italy is on a collision course with the EU over its spending plans triggered sharp falls in European markets after the new government in Rome unveiled a deficit-widening budget.The coalition of the Five Star Movement and the League announced 2019 budget plans late on Thursday that would push the deficit – the gap between income from taxes and expenditure – to three times the size of the spending gap under the previous administration.Related: Italy's budget drama – all you need to know Continue reading...

Readers offer their views on how to make the economy work for everyone as Aditya Chakrabortty’s Alternatives column comes to a closeThe close of Aditya Chakrabortty’s Alternatives column (26 September) is an opportunity to spread alternatives for economic justice and sustainability across the mainstream of the Guardian. The business environment we trade in tends to assume that companies are investor-owned, and operating against that default incurs cost and risk. It takes confidence, even courage, to grow alternatives. Similarly, media reporting on alternatives takes effort, reaching outside of the bubble of the stock market ticker tape and corporate PR.One example, the community shares model for co-ops, with over 100,000 member investors, has been a game-changer. Community energy, village shops, community-owned pubs and new online platform co-ops are reinventing capital markets on a local, human scale. The same is true for every other part of the economy, from housing and work to trade and innovation. In each case, there are extraordinary stories of people coming together, stories of setbacks and scandals of the neglect of communities by powerful institutions. Continue reading...

All polyamory participants talk as if they are living in a social vacuum, unaffected by the wider social order, writes Sydney PeirisIn your article (‘There’s so much joy in being poly’, G2, 25 September) one person declares: “What I love about polyamory is that I’m my own person and no one owns me. I don’t own any of you, either. We’re all free.” It seems to me this represents the vision of the human in capitalist culture: the unfettered, autonomous, rational, economic man. All polyamory participants talk about their feelings as if they are living in a social vacuum, unaffected by the wider social order in which they live. Kathleen Lynch, the Irish educationist, argues that our education system too enshrines the rational autonomous subject. Instead she advocates education for nurturing affective relationships and the recognition that we are profoundly dependent and interdependent on others for much of life. Relationships, whether monogamy or poly, are vitiated by the values currently celebrated in capitalist culture: narcissism and hedonism.

The eurozone’s third biggest economy is heading for a clash with Brussels over deficit planThe financial markets are het up about events in Rome for three reasons. First, Italy is the third biggest economy in the eurozone after Germany and France. Second, its banking system is fragile after two decades in which the economy has posted precious little growth. And third, it has a new populist government – a coalition of the League and the Five Star Movement – with a radical agenda that includes raising pensions and introducing a basic income.Related: Italy agrees high public spending reforms in potential clash with EU Continue reading...

Quarterly spending fall of 0.7% is fourth dip in a row, leading to fears of reduced growthUK companies cut their investments in Britain in the second quarter of 2018 amid mounting uncertainty over Brexit, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of weak spending by firms, according to government figures.The Office for National Statistics said spending on projects and assets including transport equipment, machinery, buildings and intellectual property fell by 0.7% over the three months to the end of June to £47.5bn. Continue reading...

Wanted: 75 youngsters from all walks of life to freshen up economic advice – must have grade 6 GCSE mathsWhitehall is preparing to hire its first intake of apprentice economists to boost diversity at the heart of government, shaking up a profession often accused of failing to spot the financial crisis coming a decade ago.An Oxbridge-educated maths genius might be the stereotypical candidate for a role advising ministers on economics in Whitehall, but the civil service wants to find 75 young people from all walks of life to take the positions instead.Related: Who gets on to the civil service fast stream?Related: The civil service has known of its gender pay gap for years. So what’s changed? | Jane Dudman Continue reading...

While local council budgets plummet, centralised government gains ever more powerTake back control. After two bloodstained years in British politics, it remains the one Brexit slogan with a modicum of potency. It drips with self-righteous empowerment. It depicts remainers as shiftily in thrall to Brussels, while shielding Brexiters from the charge of mere xenophobia. It is also utterly cynical.In a recent series of interviews for this paper, John Harris travelled the country, going “anywhere but Westminster”. It showed yet again that the poor are always with us, a familiar tale of those “left behind”, their misery aggravated by austerity. Theirs is a local Britain savaged over the past decade by massive cuts in spending on services.Related: In Corby, life without local services is set to become a grim realityRelated: Yes, there is an alternative. These people have shown how to ‘take back control’ | Aditya Chakrabortty Continue reading...

Debt-saddled coalition government sets 2019 budget deficit at 2.4% of GDPThe Italian government agreed to a 2019 budget deficit target at 2.4% of GDP on Thursday night in a move that was celebrated by leaders but could bring the heavily indebted country into conflict with the European Union.The economy minister Giovanni Tria succumbed to pressure from the government’s two deputy prime ministers – Luigi Di Maio, the leader of the anti-establishment Five Star Movement (M5S), and Matteo Salvini, who heads up the far-right League – to increase the target in order to pay for election campaign promises such as a universal basic income, flat tax and pension reforms.Related: Markets digest Fed rate hike as Argentina gets $57bn IMF bailout - business live Continue reading...

Readers reflect on policies laid out by the leader of the opposition and the shadow chancellor John McDonnell at the party’s conference in LiverpoolI am no fan of Jeremy Corbyn. He has been an ineffective leader of the opposition in parliament, failing to take advantage of a hopelessly inept PM and many political open goals. However, I am fed up with the grudging critique of many of your commentators.Martin Kettle asserts that “Labour has now been radically transformed into a party in the leader’s own far-left political image” (Can Labour solve the Brexit question? Now it’s imaginable, 27 September). What Corbyn’s Labour is proposing would have been seen as mainstream social democracy in the 1960s and 70s: a refashioning of a mixed economy of public and private ownership which is still in existence in parts of Europe. Continue reading...

My father, David Coates, who has died aged 71, was a political economist, incisive critic of capitalism, and author.He was also a politics lecturer, professor of government and, from 1999, Worrell professor of Anglo-American studies at Wake Forest University, North Carolina. His academic work ranged widely: from the British labour movement and social change in postwar Britain to the possibilities of “third way” leftwing politics. Continue reading...

Investors take stock after mixed messages from the US Federal Reserve, as Argentina secures the biggest ever loan in the history of the International Monetary Fund

Two former members of Bank of England’s rate-setting committee give views on UK growth

Each month we look at key indicators to see what effect the Brexit process has on growth, prosperity and trade

Latest analysis show widening disconnect between good economic news and deep fears of a no-deal Brexit

As Africa seeks new ways to tackle high debt, low pay and inequality, Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz believes two countries offer an alternative to the ‘Asian tiger’ modelThere’s a speech that the Nobel-prize winning economist Joseph Stiglitz has been taking around African countries these past few years.Last autumn the venue was South Africa’s capital, Cape Town, and the issue was among the most pressing facing the continent: how its economies can grow fast enough to keep up with the world’s most sharply expanding and youthful populations, which will include three-quarters of the additional 4 billion people on the planet by the end of this century.Related: In Ethiopia’s bushlands, promised riches of a railway boom turn to dust Continue reading...

Strict restrictions on funds include commitment to zero deficit for 2019 and limits on central bank actionsArgentina has received the biggest loan package ever from the International Monetary Fund, aimed at shoring up the country’s ailing finances: a whopping $57.1bn that will be disbursed over the next three years.

Policymakers at the US central bank raise interest rates for the third time this year, to 2.25%

Move is the eighth since 2015 as the central bank aims to unwind years of historically low ratesThe US Federal Reserve raised short-term interest rates again on Wednesday, the eighth such move since 2015 as the central bank moves to unwind years of historically low rates.After a two-day meeting the Fed announced a quarter percentage point rise in its benchmark rate to a range of 2% to 2.25%. The rate is used to set credit card, mortgage and loan rates and will trigger rises across the board for consumers. Continue reading...

The president’s belief that the nation state can cure economic ills is not without meritOnce every three years the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank hold their annual meetings out of town. Instead of schlepping over to Washington, the gathering of finance ministers and central bank governors is hosted by a member state. Ever since the 2000 meeting in Prague was besieged by anti-globalisation rioters, the away fixtures have tended to be held in places that are hard to get to or where the regime tends to take a dim view of protest: Singapore, Turkey, Peru.This year’s meeting will take place in a couple of weeks on the Indonesian island of Bali, where the IMF and the World Bank can be reasonably confident that the meetings will not be disrupted. At least not from the outside. The real threat no longer comes from balaclava-wearing anarchists throwing Molotov cocktails but from within. Donald Trump is now the one throwing the petrol bombs and for multilateral organisations like the IMF and World Bank, that poses a much bigger threat.Related: Who’s laughing now? The science behind the UN’s reaction to Trump | Sophie Scott Continue reading...

Blackstone boss challenges PM over risks UK departure may have on future investmentTheresa May has been put on the defensive over Brexit at a business summit in New York after a leading chief executive asked her to explain the possible risks of Britain’s departure on future investment, saying: “How bad can things get?”The question came from Steve Schwarzman of asset management firm Blackstone. He described Brexit as “a little daunting”, and asked May about what he said were the risks of a change of government in the UK.Related: EU steps up plans for no-deal Brexit as Labour stance alarms capitals Continue reading...

A stimulating study argues that the language of creativity in government and business is all too often a cover for austerity and corporate intrusion into our daily livesAre you a member of the “creative classes”? You might be if you do something that vaguely involves ideas or images, and aspire to live in a warehouse-style apartment next to an artisan coffee shop and pop-up gallery. But what’s so wrong with that? Reader, I sat in a hipster cafe in London’s East End and prepared to find out.The book’s beginning is wobbly, as it tries to show that the very idea of creativity was invented by modern capitalism. In his day, Shakespeare would not have been thought a genius but a mere “craftsman” or “wordsmith”, Oli Mould claims. This would have come as a surprise to Shakespeare’s friend Ben Jonson, who called him “the star of poets”, and one who was “not of an age but for all time”. Meanwhile, the Enlightenment is blamed for colonialism (which came first), and for “the privatisation of creativity” by wealthy people commissioning art, although patronage has supported artists at least since Roman times.Creativity, Mould insists, is never allowed to be apolitical Continue reading...

Supply chain chiefs at 1,300 surveyed firms say firms are already stockpiling parts amid fear of no-deal BrexitDelays of only half an hour at UK ports and the Irish border would risk one in 10 British firms going bankrupt, according to a report laying bare the severe risk to the economy from no-deal Brexit.According to the Chartered Institute of Procurement and Supply (CIPS), failure to reach a deal with Brussels before March could trigger massive queues of trucks at British borders from a vast increase in paperwork and checks to clear customs.Related: Next warns of Brexit port delays and higher pricesRelated: Rotterdam prepared for worst when Britain crashes out of EURelated: A no-deal Brexit survival guide: what food to stockpile Continue reading...

In conference speech Labour leader to lay out plans to change direction of economyJeremy Corbyn will on Wednesday attack the “greed-is-good” capitalism that he claims has resulted in large swaths of the UK being left behind, promising a raft of new policies including a “green jobs revolution” that will create 400,000 new positions.The Labour leader will attempt to reset the theme of the Labour conference which has so far been dominated by deep divisions over its Brexit stance and return to his core argument about the failure of the broken economic system.Related: Labour delegates back Keir Starmer push for public vote on BrexitRelated: Has Labour's stance on Brexit changed? Continue reading...

Readers respond to John Harris’s article on whether Labour can forge a new 21st-century socialismJohn Harris’s stimulating piece (Can Labour forge a new 21st-century socialism?, 24 September) contained a dangerous proposal: to devolve social security powers to “the most local level possible”. Does he mean that social security benefit rates and regulations would be decided at this level? If so, this would undermine social security’s status as a human right, which provides protection regardless of where citizens live within a country, turning it into a “postcode lottery”.The precedent of devolution of parts of the social fund to local welfare assistance schemes in England – either cut back or abolished completely in many hard-pressed local authorities – does not augur well. The “authoritarian and hateful” elements of the current benefits system are due not to its centralised nature but to punitive policies, which could just as well be applied by some local authorities, with less chance of legal redress. Yes, such a policy would mean leaving the 20th century – for the 19th century or even earlier, with shades of the poor law. The priority for the 21st century should be a decent social security scheme that provides genuine security and respects the rights and dignity of all.

Peso tumbles as Luis Caputo resigns amid ongoing talks for emergency IMF fundingThe head of the Argentinian central bank has resigned after just three months in charge and while the country is negotiating emergency financial support from the International Monetary Fund.In the latest twist of the economic crisis, Luis Caputo resigned unexpectedly on Tuesday, sending the peso tumbling on the foreign exchanges. The currency had already dropped by more than 50% this year amid fears about a recession and high levels of government debt, and despite the government imposing fresh austerity measures in an attempt to stem the crisis. Continue reading...

Around the world weary workers are staying late at the office or taking naps on the job – while data reveals the link between sleep and wagesKonomu Suido is a rarity among Tokyo executives: most evenings, he gets home in time to cook dinner with his girlfriend. “There’s an expectation in Tokyo that you shouldn’t leave work before your boss,” he explains. For many of the city’s suits, sleep is often fleeting.It’s the same in many cities around the world, with working hours and lengthy commutes encroaching on bedtimes. Sleeplessness seems a particular problem – even a badge of honour – in urban centres of power and innovation, with rest long derided as an opportunity cost by society’s leaders. Margaret Thatcher claimed to sleep just four hours a night – now it’s Elon Musk defending his 120-hour work weeks, telling Arianna Huffington that sleep is not an option.We thought: 'sleep takes up a third of our lives, but nobody in economics is looking at it'There’s a chicken-and-egg relationship between sleep and wages – sleep can be both a cause and consequence of incomeSome people need to work three jobs. For others, their time is too valuable to take a break. Neither feels they can afford to sleepRelated: The art of the urban nap: let's lose the stigma of public snoozing Continue reading...

Victoria’s industrial left says it ‘will never stop fighting the trans-Pacific partnership agreement and its attacks on working people’Labor’s internal woes on the Trans-Pacific partnership trade pact TPP-11 are persisting, with the industrial left faction in Victoria attempting to trigger a grass roots ballot to stop the federal party supporting the deal.The Victorian sortie, which comes before a meeting of the national left caucus in just over a week to sort through the faction’s agenda for the December ALP conference, follows the leaking of caucus minutes detailing the internal debate over the trade deal.Related: Labor drops opposition to Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal Continue reading...

Commerce minister says the resumption of talks depends on US ‘will’ as Beijing also accuses Washington of bullyingThe United States is putting “a knife to China’s neck” on trade issues, a senior Chinese official has said, as the two sides struggle to find a way to end a months-long standoff over trade.A day after both sides heaped fresh tariffs on each other’s goods, vice-commerce minister Wang Shouwen said the resumption of talks on the matter depended on the “will” of the US.Related: The US-China trade war is unlikely to be settled soon | Nils Pratley Continue reading...

Massive earnings might reflect strength – but history suggests we should expect volatilityThe US stock market, as measured by the monthly real (inflation-adjusted) S&P Composite Index, or S&P 500, has increased 3.3-fold since its bottom in March 2009. This makes the US stock market the most expensive in the world, according to the cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings (CAPE) ratio that I have long advocated. Is the price increase justified, or are we witnessing a bubble?One might think the increase is justified, given that real quarterly S&P 500 reported earnings per share rose 3.8-fold over essentially the same period, from the first quarter of 2009 to the second quarter of 2018. In fact, the price increase was a little less than equal to earnings.Related: Donald Trump’s currency confusion continues | Jeffrey Frankel Continue reading...

Economists warn overseas buyers moving away from UK suppliers due to uncertaintyBritain’s manufacturers have warned of the mounting risk of a no-deal Brexit as export orders dropped to the lowest level in almost a year.The CBI industrial trends survey, which gauges manufacturing activity across the UK, revealed slowing economic output for the three months to September, with company export orders the lowest since October 2017. Continue reading...

Nobel prizewinning economist who produced an influential 2010 review of the tax system that advocated fundamental reformProbably the finest moment in the working life of Sir James Mirrlees came in 1968 when, he recalled, “I finally cracked the optimal tax problem … it came in a flash and was very satisfactory.”Mirrlees, who has died aged 82, arrived at his conclusions about taxation in the middle of Harold Wilson’s government, when tax rates were as high as 80% and the Kinks wrote their famous anti-tax song Sunny Afternoon. Continue reading...

The true story of how the City of London invented offshore banking – and set the rich free

Washington imposes $200bn taxes on Chinese goods, while Beijing targets $60bn of US goodsThe United States and China have imposed new tit-for-tat tariffs against each other’s goods, the latest escalation in a heated trade war between the world’s two largest economies.US tariffs on $200bn worth of Chinese goods and retaliatory tariffs by Beijing on $60bn worth of US products took effect at 0400 GMT. The two countries already exchanged tariffs on $50bn worth of each other’s goods earlier this year.Even while running for president, Donald Trump waged a war of words against China, promising punitive import tariffs to “bring back” jobs to America.Related: US-China relations deteriorating fast over flashpoint issuesRelated: The US-China trade war is unlikely to be settled soon | Nils Pratley Continue reading...

Amid speculation about a snap election, the party should get prepared for pushback from City and business interestsDowning Street is war-gaming a snap general election. The Sunday papers are alive with stories that Theresa May is weighing up the possibility of seeking public support for her Brexit strategy. Voters could soon be trooping off to polling stations to elect a government for the third time in little more than three years.Given the disastrous result the last time the prime minister went down this route, it seems likely that May would only call a general election as a last resort. That said, the events of the past week mean that anything could happen.Related: An economic recovery based around high debt is really no recovery | Larry Elliott Continue reading...

As it prepares for its annual conference, it is time for the party to abandon its lame acceptance of the EU referendum resultIs this year’s Labour conference in Liverpool going to rise to the occasion and put the party firmly on the road to stopping Brexit?With mounting support among trade unionists for a “people’s vote”, it would be a welcome outcome if what my old friend and Observer colleague Alan Watkins called “the people’s party” finally got its act together in the interests of the country and all working people.Leaving the EU would do absolutely nothing to alleviate the concerns of “left-behind” voters Continue reading...

In Rotterdam, everyone assumes the UK will leave the single market and customs union. We went to see how it plans to cope with the upheavalEurope’s largest port, Rotterdam, is counting down to Brexit. “In about 200 days’ time, if nothing else happens… we will need to supervise all the goods coming in and out of the UK market,” says Roel van ’t Veld, Brexit coordinator at the Dutch customs authority.Hard Brexit or soft? Chequers dead or alive? Does “max-fac” make any sense? The feverish debate in Westminster is distant for officials in Rotterdam, who are working on the assumption the UK will leave the EU’s single market and customs union on 29 March 2019.I would like the UK to stay within the common market, but it appears that the UK prefers not to Continue reading...

With Brexit, everything from the economy to the union is under threat. Do the Conservatives know what they have done?A party committed to defending the economic interests of rich elites could never win by saying so. After the advent of working-class suffrage, Conservatives had to have an offer for everyone. There would be room at the top for those who laboured hard, they promised. We will keep out the foreigners and harshly punish the criminals. We will be uncompromising in our defence of the union. We will be defiant against external foes. But a mainstay of Tory propaganda was always this: we are a bulwark against chaos, the custodians of economic security. Scare-mongering about Labour’s chilling threat to the economy was even deployed against Tony Blair, a man who posed no serious threat to Thatcher’s consensus: the Tories’ 1997 slogan was “Britain’s booming – don’t let Labour ruin it”. So look now as the Tories prepare the biggest economic shock imposed by a British government in modern history. How can they ever deliver their finger-wagging lectures on economic credibility ever again?Related: Gina Miller launches campaign to 'end the Brexit chaos'Related: Brexit has created chaos in Britain – nobody voted for this | Zoe Williams Continue reading...

Results likely to frustrate chancellor as he prepares to fund pledge for £20bn annual rise in NHS spending by 2023-24

The US president blames China but even a basic understanding of economics shows it’s his own policies that bloat the dollarNext month, the US Department of the Treasury is due to submit to Congress its biannual report detailing which countries, if any, are manipulating their currencies to gain an unfair trade advantage. For his part, President Donald Trump is already accusing China of doing so, as he did throughout the 2016 election campaign. And he is reportedly trying to influence the Treasury Department’s deliberations.What has changed since the last report in April? That document, like similar reports written during the previous two administrations, did not find China guilty of manipulation. In fact, the last time the Treasury Department declared China (or anyone else) a manipulator was in 1994.China and the US officially launched a trade war on 6 July. After months of threats and negotiations, the US implemented tariffs of 25% on $34bn in Chinese goods. Within minutes, China’s ministry of commerce said Beijing was being “forced to fight back”. Continue reading...