Economics | The Guardian

Philip Hammond has held on to his own job, for now. But his budget changes may prove little more than window dressing as Brexit loomsRelated: Autumn budget 2017: Hammond scraps stamp duty for first-time buyers for homes worth up to £300,000 - updatesRelated: Stamp duty cut for first-time buyers hopes to fix housing marketRelated: The real budget story is the sharp cut in growth forecasts | Larry Elliott Continue reading...

Autumn budget also includes stamp duty cut, £1.5bn universal credit U-turn and extra £3bn for Brexit preparations

The chancellor, Philip Hammond, has unveiled the budget. These are the main points, with political analysis

Retailers say households facing squeeze on real incomes are putting off purchases as they go into key Christmas periodBritons are putting off major home appliance and furniture purchases and DIY projects, in the latest sign that household budgets are under pressure in the run-up to Christmas.On Tuesday, the DIY chain B&Q, the department store chain John Lewis and AO, the online electrical retailer, joined the list of companies warning of tough trading conditions, as the slowdown in the housing market has a knock-on effect on demand for everything from fitted kitchens and bathrooms to sofas and washing machines.Related: Business Today: sign up for a morning shot of financial news Continue reading...

As the graphs and data show, Philip Hammond faces weaker growth, Brexit uncertainty and falling living standardsThe chancellor, Philip Hammond, is delivering one of the most difficult budgets in recent times, set against a backdrop of weaker growth, Brexit uncertainty and falling living standards.Here are five key charts to consider. Continue reading...

Growth must go on – it’s the political imperative everywhere, and it’s destroying the Earth. But there’s no way of greening it, so we need a new system

These are not normal times: the chancellor is unable to fund giveaways by raising taxes in the hope the public will forget themIn normal times, the first budget after a general election is a predictable affair. The chancellor of the exchequer stands up, conjures up the ghost of Sir Stafford Cripps, administers some pain and quickly moves on.In Westminster it is known as aligning the economic and political cycles. In plain English, it means getting the bad news out of the way early in order that there will be money to spare just before voters have to go to the polls again. Only rarely do governments deviate from this approach and when they do it rarely ends well.Related: Business Today: sign up for a morning shot of financial newsRelated: Widening UK budget deficit hands Hammond a headache Continue reading...

How will the chancellor try to improve British productivity and tackle pressures over public services and welfare?This is Philip Hammond’s first budget statement since the general election in June and the third since he became chancellor last year.In March he was cheered by his backbenchers after the UK avoided the recession predicted by many analysts following the Brexit vote last year. Employment was climbing and measures of consumer and business confidence, which plummeted after the referendum, had bounced back. Continue reading...

Britain borrowed more than expected last month, but borrowing is still down almost 10% since the start of the financial year

Global demand for British goods and weak pound bring sharp improvement in both total and export order booksOrder books for Britain’s factories are at their strongest for almost 30 years as the weak pound and global growth bolsters demand for manufactured goods.In a boost to the chancellor on the eve of the budget, the CBI’s monthly health check of industry showed a sharp improvement in both total and export order books.Related: UK budget deficit widened unexpectedly, but factory orders rise – business live Continue reading...

Rise in public sector net borrowing points to weaker economy than expected and will further limit chancellor’s spending powerBritain’s deficit unexpectedly widened in October, handing Philip Hammond disappointing news on the eve of the budget.

Weather event could drive up costs of commodities such as coffee and cocoa as Britons face Brexit and inflation squeezeUK consumers could be hit by a new bout of food price inflation next year after the return of the La Niña global weather phenomenon, which may hit production of key commodities including coffee and cocoa.The UK is expected to be particularly exposed to the effect of the event, which tends to prompt dry weather in the US midwest and heavy rainfall in south-east Asia and Australia, because of the uncertainty caused by Brexit.Related: Business Today: sign up for a morning shot of financial newsRelated: Food prices would soar after no-deal Brexit, warns major dairy boss Continue reading...

Surrounded by critics, the chancellor will have little room for manoeuvre but is likely to be as upbeat as he thinks he can bePhilip Hammond faces an all but impossible job when he delivers his budget on Wednesday. Behind him will sit critics on the right and even to the left of the party, and he will have to deliver a fiscal message that sounds fresh after its key themes, housing, skills and a modest injection of resources for the NHS have already been briefed out.

All the day’s economic and financial news, as investors digest Angela Merkel’s failure to reach a deal with Germany’s Free Democrats.

Recreational shopping is not about collecting objects so much as experiencesOn Thursday, nothing out of the ordinary will happen in Britain. Millions of people will get up and go to work as normal; families will remain widely dispersed; shops will be open as usual; and at the end of the day the nation will gather for its traditional meals of takeaway and microwaved convenience foods eaten in front of a screen. In the US, by contrast, it will be the feast of Thanksgiving, when the whole country shuts down and families gather from across vast distances for a ritual meal celebrating America’s founding myth. An anthropologist might well suppose that this was the most important festival of the year, far more so than Christmas. No one would dare declare a war on Thanksgiving. So it makes a kind of sense that the day after be given over to the frenzy of shopping.It makes no sense at all for Black Friday to be transplanted to Britain. There is nothing at all special about the day in the British social calendar. Even in the retail calendar it falls squarely in the middle of the runup to Christmas, which nowadays starts some time in early October, so that there are already angels watching over the crowds in Oxford Street in central London, while in Bradford the Christmas decorations went up even earlier.Related: UK shoppers forecast to spend £10bn in Black Friday sales Continue reading...

Zimbabwe is one of many countries where China is acquiring an overseas empire of investment and influence, says Otto InglisOne aspect of the coup d’etat in Zimbabwe (Chaos in Zimbabwe after Mugabe refuses to resign, 20 November) is highly significant for Britain and the wider world: it has been suggested that shortly before the coup the head of the army, General Constantino Chiwenga, visited China to obtain tacit Chinese government support for the move.That is a stunning indication of the importance of China to Zimbabwe, especially to its elite, and of the complete eclipse of the influence of Britain as the former colonial power. Continue reading...

The lingerie brand’s star model Gigi Hadid got into trouble over a gaffe that a more seasoned business traveller to China might have anticipated. So what hope for future forays into this repressive state?As a movie plot, it would work better for Johnny English than James Bond: the lingerie brand Victoria’s Secret saw its launch in China mired in controversy when the People’s Republic refused to issue visas to invited celebrities and journalists. Katy Perry was barred for seemingly supporting the independence of Taiwan, while model Gigi Hadid transgressed by squinting in a way some Chinese people thought was racist, while posing with a fortune cookie that looked like Buddha. Add in China’s standard unpredictability when it comes to issuing press visas and you have loss of face all around.A brief history Continue reading...

Dave Ramsden says one of the reasons for his vote against raising interest rates was that workers were showing pay restraintBritain’s unusually weak pay growth could be caused by workers reining in their demands due to Brexit uncertainty, a senior Bank of England official has said.In his first speech since joining the Bank from the Treasury, Dave Ramsden said the impact of the EU referendum on inflation had persuaded him to vote against an increase in interest rates earlier this month. Continue reading...

Soaring property prices, rising rents, austerity and an influx of London émigrés are putting the squeeze on young peopleBristol’s economy has flourished in recent years, fuelled in part by its proximity to the capital’s booming economy and overheating housing market. The west of England, and the city of Brunel and Banksy, is an increasingly expensive place to live with the highest private sector rental costs outside London, according to the Resolution Foundation thinktank.Bristol’s burgeoning youth population is bearing the brunt, in a part of the world known not just for its heritage as a cornerstone of the industrial revolution but for its cultural scene. With typical house prices more than 10 times the average salary, that might make it tougher for the next Massive Attack or Portishead to emerge. Continue reading...

Logistics company CEVA says delays could lead to ‘calamitous situation’ at Dover, and warns it may already be too lateOne of the world’s biggest logistics companies, whose clients include Rolls-Royce, Airbus and Primark, has said it is “bordering on insanity” to think new Brexit customs systems will be in place for 2019.Leigh Pomlett, the executive director of CEVA Group, which specialises in road, air and ocean-going freight, said Downing Street and the Treasury did not understand how difficult it would be to have a system in place in 15 months’ time, when the UK leaves the EU.Related: Brexit: failure to update customs system could be 'catastrophic' Continue reading...

The consequences of the tax program will shelve support for the Republicans, but once in power the Democrats’ hands will be financially bound for yearsI think many Democrats and independent political observers are puzzled by the intensity with which Republicans are pursuing their tax cut. It’s not politically popular and may well lead to the party’s defeat in next year’s congressional elections. So why do it?

Getting rid of deficits is disastrous for economies – as Bill Clinton proved in the 1990s. But don’t expect Philip Hammond to ditch this crazy obsessionPhilip Hammond is in a bind as he prepares for the autumn budget. On the one hand, with Theresa May reeling from ministerial resignations and facing rebellion from the right of her party over Brexit, the chancellor is under pressure from his own MPs to ginger the budget horse. On the other hand he is being stalked by John McDonnell’s popular (and sensible) policies. And the only defence Hammond can mount is the increasingly threadbare invocation of the “fiscal rules”, of keeping the deficit low and maintaining “credibility”.Related: Housing, tax, pensions: what are your hopes for the the autumn budget? Continue reading...

Wednesday’s budget seen as make or break for chancellor who is already unpopular with pro-Brexit ToriesPhilip Hammond will face a fight for his political life at this week’s budget after he was accused of being hopelessly out of touch for claiming there were “no unemployed people” in the UK.The chancellor found himself at the centre of a damaging row over the gaffe as he prepares for a difficult budget on Wednesday at a time of worsening economic forecasts and uncertain Brexit negotiations.Related: The ‘no unemployment’ chancellor needs a budget of compassion | Matthew d’AnconaRelated: Labour's Rebecca Long-Bailey says budget must 'level up' spending in north Continue reading...

Alongside the human costs, cuts have hurt our economy, and we’ve now reached a dangerous tipping point, say Joseph Stiglitz, Ha-Joon Chang and 111 othersSeven years of austerity has destroyed lives. An estimated 30,000 excess deaths can be linked to cuts in NHS spending and the social care crisis in 2015 alone. The number of food parcels given to impoverished Britons has grown from tens of thousands in 2010 to over a million. Children are suffering from real-terms spending cuts in up to 88% of schools. The public sector pay cap has meant that millions of workers are struggling to make ends meet.Alongside the mounting human costs, austerity has hurt our economy. The UK has experienced its weakest recovery on record and suffers from poor levels of investment, leading to low productivity and falling wages. This government has missed every one of its own debt reduction targets because austerity simply doesn’t work. Continue reading...

The chancellor should change course but with no majority, no money and no productivity growth there’s no hope of thatPhilip Hammond did not get his nickname of “Spreadsheet Phil” for nothing. The chancellor is a cautious man, who thinks that tackling Britain’s productivity challenge is a better use of his time than trying to wrongfoot his opposite number, John McDonnell, with political gimmicks.Hammond’s instinct in the run-up to his second budget has been to hunker down, to hide himself away in the Treasury and send out messages that he simply doesn’t have the money to bail the government out of its current troubles.

Past generations of British politicians proved equal to the crises that faced them. This time, there is a strong whiff of panic in the corridors of powerTo say that the lunatics have taken over the asylum would doubtless be termed politically incorrect. But the uncomfortable truth is that a bunch of ideological Brexit clowns have perpetrated a coup on the British government and the majority of the British people.Seldom – or, to be more precise, never – in half a century of covering British economics have I encountered such a failure of leadership at a time of crisis. We came close to the abyss in 1976 but were saved by Jim Callaghan, the prime minister, and Denis Healey, the chancellor. On that occasion, after fraught talks, the two held the cabinet together and negotiated a loan from the International Monetary Fund which restored our credibility in the markets. Continue reading...

The online giant will have a real store in London for Black Friday. In this topsy-turvy retail world, innovation is now a necessityBlack Friday 2017: where to find the best UK dealsOn London’s Oxford Street a row of glittering snowflakes guides shoppers along the golden mile of fashion and department stores. The 750,000 lights floating above Selfridges, John Lewis and Debenhams are a decades-old tradition but events like Black Friday have changed Christmas shopping for ever.The UK high street has just experienced something of a watershed, what some have called its “Tesla moment”. Online fashion website Asos overtook Marks & Spencer in market value terms for the first time despite not having a single store to its name. The comparison with the automotive industry comes because electric carmaker Tesla moved ahead of the 114-year-old Ford Motor Company in market value earlier this year.Related: Business Today: sign up for a morning shot of financial news Continue reading...

No bespoke trade deal can be as good as the single market, says Sir Martin DonnellyThere is no trade deal on offer from the European Union that will stop Britain taking a major economic hit after Brexit, the government’s former top trade official has warned.In a direct warning to MPs, Sir Martin Donnelly, the chief civil servant in Liam Fox’s Department for International Trade until earlier this year, states that leaving the single market in favour of negotiating a long-winded, Canada-style trade deal will “damage UK competitiveness and leave us with less investment, lower living standards and long queues at the border”.Related: We shouldn’t even be contemplating leaving the single market Continue reading...

Guardian readers on the economic divisions facing BritainBefore anyone leaps with joy at the commercial prospects of the Oxford-Cambridge sprawl belt (Hammond urged to invest £7bn in transport links for new towns, 17 November), they should read Larry Elliott’s bleak exposition of the two nations we have become (No wonder the north is angry. Here’s a plan to bridge the bitter Brexit divide, 17 November). It’s curious how the greenfield sprawl lobby has always been obsessed with the northern home counties and south-east Midlands. Andrew Adonis’s enthusiasm for the Oxford-Cambridge axis is only the latest chapter in a saga stretching back to Letchworth Garden City in Edwardian times.Low-density greenfield development is highly profitable for developers and really good at increasing traffic and greenhouse gas emissions. It’s also proved good at dragging wealth out of places that desperately need it to regions which lack the housing to support population growth. Backing economic “winners” just perpetuates an endless spiral of housebuilding, roadbuilding and destruction of our precious farmland. It also exacerbates the dangerous divide between rich and poor regions.

The president of the European Central Bank warned in a speech in Frankfurt that although the eurozone economy was ‘robust’, recovery was still heavily reliant on stimulus from the European Central Bank

Building society warns ‘sluggish’ economy, Brexit uncertainty, weak wage increases and rising inflation are hurting customers’ financesHousehold finances are under worsening pressure, according to Nationwide building society, which reported a fall in profits and warned of tougher trading conditions ahead.Total mortgage lending slipped from £17.5bn to £16.7bn, largely because of a steep decline in loans for buy-to-let following the tax changes. But as lending for landlords has fallen, loans granted to first-time buyers have surged.Related: Nationwide sounds note of caution over lending in run-up to Brexit Continue reading...

The government’s own figures have proved what has been obvious since 2010: minorities, women and disabled people are the ones being hit the hardestIf the point of government is to make the already disadvantaged worse off, then the Conservatives have used the last seven years in power exceptionally well. Today the Equality and Human Rights Commission released a major report calculating the impact austerity is having on Britain – painstakingly calculating the impact that changes to all tax, social security and public spending since 2010 will have on each of us by 2022.Black households (as the report puts it) will lose 5% of income – more than double the loss for white householdsRelated: Women and disabled people hit hardest by years of austerity, report confirms Continue reading...

Equalities watchdog says Tory tax and benefit reforms over seven years will slash incomes of poorest by 10%, while richest only lose 1%Disabled people, single parents and women have been among the biggest losers under seven years of austerity, according to a report by the equalities watchdog.While the poorest tenth of households will on average lose about 10% of their income by 2022 – equivalent to £1 in every £8 of net income – the richest will lose just 1%, or about £1 in every £250 of net income, the study carried out for the Equality and Human Rights Commission (EHRC) reveals.Related: New universal credit claimants 'will get no money before Christmas' Continue reading...

Most purchases in UK likely to be made online and spread over the week with big bargains less common as retailers battle rising costs and inflationBritish shoppers are expected to spend £10.1bn in the week of Black Friday, nearly 4% higher than last year as more retailers take part in the US-inspired promotional day.But the bargain fever seen in earlier years is thought unlikely to materialise as most activity will be online with experts warning that the discounts are likely to be less exciting on the day, which falls on 24 November this year.Related: Black Friday 2017: where to get the best UK deals Continue reading...

UK retail sales fell for the first time in October, year-on-year, since 2013, despite stronger-than-expected growth over the month

The economist and author of Globalisation and its Discontents talks to the Guardian's Larry Elliott about why he considers Donald Trump unfit to be US president. He says stagnant incomes, the opioid crisis and falling life expectancies all pointed towards a political problem in the US but no one imagined it leading to a Trump presidency Continue reading...

The Nobel prize-winning economist on the threat from the US president, fairer globalisation – and whether Bernie Sanders would have wonHarry Truman once demanded to be given one-handed economists because he became so frustrated with his advisers meeting every demand for answers with “on the one hand, on the other hand”.Truman would have liked Joseph Stiglitz, the Nobel prize-winning economist who worked for a later Democratic president, Bill Clinton, and who does not mince words when talking about the current incumbent of the White House, Donald Trump.Related: Business Today: sign up for a morning shot of financial newsA couple of things are most disturbing – the attack on the press and the attack on the foundations of knowledgeWe saved the banks, we saved the bankers and we saved the shareholders; we didn’t do much for homeownersWe are dealing with countries all over the world ... Trump’s word is not good Continue reading...

The vultures are circling above Philip Hammond, and one of them is Gove-shaped. But with the right buzzwords, any of us could become chancellorWe’ve all done it. You’re in a job interview, or are trying to send a message to the boss that you are ready for a big step-up. You start using the words that the tall people in suits use. They sound good. They lend you authority – you hope. They make you come across like someone who is ready to play in “the big leagues”– which is precisely the sort of phrase that the tall people in suits use.Someone in the cabinet has got cross with Michael Gove for doing just that, using “long, economicky words” to send a message that he is ready to take over from Philip Hammond should next week’s budget – God forbid – not be a complete triumph.Related: Michael Gove and Boris Johnson: how did their friendship come out of the deep freeze?Related: End austerity in public services, John McDonnell tells chancellor Continue reading...

Rising food prices and economic uncertainty are making shoppers cautious about spending, say analystsRocketing food inflation and uncertainty about the outlook for the UK economy have sent retail sales tumbling to their first year-on-year fall since 2013.Food prices, which were 3.5% higher than a year earlier, helped push the volume of goods bought in shops and online down by 0.3% from October 2016.Related: Business Today: sign up for a morning shot of financial news Continue reading...

Worker output in London and satellite cities far outweighs that in places such as Stoke and Doncaster, says Centre for Cities thinktankBritain’s economy would be more than £200bn bigger if all cities were as productive as those in London and the south-east, research from a thinktank has shown.A report by the Centre for Cities revealed that the capital and its satellite cities were as productive as anywhere in Europe and that the UK’s recent weak productivity record was the result of a huge performance gap with other parts of the country.Related: How UK cities compare for population, jobs, new businesses and house prices Continue reading...

Central bank warns against setting up ‘empty shell’ operations in euro area without adequate staff

Ending life-sapping excessive hours was a pioneering demand for the labour movement. For the sake of our health and the economy we need to revisit itImagine there was a single policy that would slash unemployment and underemployment, tackle health conditions ranging from mental distress to high blood pressure, increase productivity, help the environment, improve family lives, encourage men to do more household tasks, and make people happier. It sounds fantastical, but it exists, and it’s overdue: the introduction of a four-day week.The liberation of workers from excessive work was one of the pioneering demands of the labour movement. From the ashes of the civil war, American trade unionism rallied behind an eight-hour day, “a movement which ran with express speed from the Atlantic to the Pacific, from New England to California”, as Karl Marx put it. In 1890 hundreds of thousands thronged into Hyde Park in a historic protest for the same demand. It is a cause that urgently needs reclaiming.Related: The machine age is upon us. We must not let it grind society to pieces | Chuka UmunnaRelated: CitySprint accused of 'making a mockery' of employment rights Continue reading...

One day’s headlines shows how the UK’s struggling public services are desperate for funding, writes Linda Rhead. Surely, she says, it is connected to the tax-avoidance scandal in the same edition. While Richard Carter says Theresa May’s failure to tackle tax avoidance could make her look complicitGuardian 15 November: page 4, Squeezed NHS must close dozens of services; page 5, Armed forces no longer fit for purpose, former top brass warn; page 8, Poorest squeezed as food price inflation hits four-year high; page 10, Police poised to ignore minor crimes, MPs told; page 16, Eating disorder patients waiting months for care. Five articles in Wednesday’s Guardian outline the catastrophic consequences of the Tory government’s austerity policy, on the NHS, the armed services, the poorest families and the police. In Monday’s edition, 5,000 headteachers wrote asking for relief from more damaging cuts to education. What does the media have to do to get the prime minister and the chancellor to see how wrong these policies are? Maybe the “Plea to halt ‘industrial scale’ tax avoidance” (page 1, 15 November) could offer a hint at a possible alternative.

Central bank boss Mario Draghi gets tough on financial institutions’ risk management plans

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ONS says number of people unemployed also dropped in the three months to September, by 59,000 to 1.425 millionSigns that Britain’s long employment boom has come to an end emerged on Wednesday as official figures showed a drop in the number of people in work, a fall in full-time employment and a decline in the number of job vacancies.After a record-breaking run, the The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported the first fall in employment since the immediate aftermath of last year’s Brexit vote.Related: UK real wage squeeze continues as employment total falls - business live Continue reading...

Motor industry says threatened new tariffs could add £1,500 to price of an imported car, and make exports more expensive tooThe devastating impact of a hard Brexit on the UK car industry was laid bare on Tuesday to MPs, who were told every 15 minutes of customs delays would cost some manufacturers up to £850,000 a year.Presenting the industry’s most detailed evidence yet to the business select committee, Honda UK said it relied on 350 trucks a day arriving from Europe to keep its giant Swindon factory operating, with just an hour’s worth of parts being held on the production line.Related: Brexit: failure to update customs system could be 'catastrophic'Related: EU business leaders tell PM: agree Brexit deal or face collapse in confidence Continue reading...

Official figures show prices were up by 4.2% last month on 12 months earlier, the highest level in four yearsBig increases in the price of fish, fats and vegetables have driven food price inflation to the highest level in more than four years.New data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) shows food prices last month were up by 4.2% on 12 months earlier, a sharp increase on the 0.6% that food inflation was running at just a year ago. The October increase is the highest since 2013 and prompted the British Retail Consortium (BRC) to warn that consumers face the prospect of an expensive Christmas dinner this year.Related: 'Butter has gone up by 40%': readers on rising UK food pricesInflation is when prices rise. Deflation is the opposite – price decreases over time – but inflation is far more common.Related: Cost of living squeeze continues as UK inflation sticks at five-year high - business live Continue reading...

Those who voted for Brexit wanted migration to be managed, say Jonathon Porritt and Colin Hines. But Eric Goodyer voted remain to keep his freedom to work, live and retire anywhere in Europe. Plus John Hall says the benefits system must be reorientedWhat those who want to remain in a reformed EU that lessens people’s insecurity must grasp is that Brexit voters don’t want an apology, they want policies to deal with their desire for managed migration. What is still inadequately understood is that the one upside of the grim rise of the extreme right across Europe since the referendum has been the increasing discussions in the EU about adapting free movement of people with measures to manage migration.In our new report, The Progressive Case for Taking Control of EU Immigration – and Avoiding Brexit in the Process, on how Brexit can be reversed if progressives actively support these trends, we speculate that if Keir Starmer (on behalf of Jeremy Corbyn), Vince Cable and Caroline Lucas shared this analysis, they would prioritise seeking authentic agreement across the EU to properly acknowledge EU citizens’ concerns about migration. This would involve highlighting existing and proposing new measures to help “manage” migration. Then Brexit could be reversed.

As inflation sticks at a five-year high of 3%, readers share their experiences of how they are coping with the squeezeI shop at Lidl and Asda and consider myself a savvy shopper on a budget, as I’m on minimum wage. Butter has gone up by 40%, but is a little luxury I do not want to give up. Meat has increased so much that I rarely buy it and make do with very cheap chicken or pork shoulder – lamb and beef joints are out of the question, so I use minced beef and burgers from Lidl. I have entirely changed the way we eat – we have soup a lot for our main meal, for example – and make do with less, or change meals to use jars of ready-made pasta sauce for 52p and cheap spaghetti for 20p at the end of the month. On the plus side, nothing is wasted and we are very inventive, but I have the time and skills at this time of my life, but I worry about the younger people who are time and skill short. We spend a lot on existing, so there is nothing left for anything nice.