Chancellor says economy will beat forecasts and that Britain’s ‘best days lie ahead of us’Philip Hammond promised Britain that “our best days lie ahead of us”, as he delivered an upbeat spring statement paving the way for a boost to public spending in the autumn.Hailing a modest improvement in economic forecasts, and what he called a “turning point” in the public finances, the chancellor sought to shrug off his image as the cabinet’s Eeyore, insisting he was “at my most positively Tigger-like”.Related: Spring statement: Hammond accused of 'astounding complacency' after seeing light at end of the tunnel - live updatesRelated: Spring statement 2018: the chancellor's key points at a glance Continue reading...

IMF chief says cryptocurrency’s own blockchain technology could be used to control itChristine Lagarde has called for a crackdown on bitcoin by using the technology behind the digital currency to “fight fire with fire”.The head of the International Monetary Fund said authorities around the world could harness the potential of cryptocurrencies to help bring them under control, warning that failure to do so would allow the unfettered development of a “potentially major new vehicle for money laundering and the financing of terrorism”.

ONS basket shakeup adds gym leggings and soft play and drops full leg wax and pastiesWomen’s activewear leggings, quiche and raspberries are in vogue while pork pies and bottles of lager drunk in nightclubs are out, in the annual shakeup of the UK’s official shopping basket.Gym leggings, made popular by athleisure brands such as Beyoncé’s Ivy Park, have been added to the basket used by the Office for National Statistics to measure inflation. “Action cameras” such as GoPros are now also included, as people film themselves during extreme sports and other activities.Inflation is when prices rise. Deflation is the opposite – price decreases over time – but inflation is far more common. Continue reading...

Philip Hammond has delivered his first spring statement. Here are the key points, with political analysis

The chancellor’s spring statement won’t address it, but evidence that the Conservatives’ cuts have failed is everywhereThe chancellor, Philip Hammond, and his fellow Conservatives are being careful to badge the spring statement as a non-event – no tax or spending announcements. The budget in November was devoid of substance, and now Hammond will use his platform to tell the public – desperate nurses, struggling single mums, cash-starved local authorities – to wait. But given the mounting evidence that shows austerity is bad for the economy, growing public dissatisfaction, weakened levels of investment as well as the rising human costs – what is he waiting for? The truth is he’s not waiting; he’s trying to hoodwink us. There is no light at the end of the tunnel because since 2010 we have been in a tunnel that leads only to one place – a small state with government-sanctioned hardship and a weaker economy.Related: Philip Hammond can’t ignore the anger caused by austerity | Matthew d’AnconaEnding austerity isn’t just a matter of no longer cutting; it requires reversing the cuts and increasing spending Continue reading...

UK was offered tariff-free goods trade, as long as it continued the EU’s existing access to its watersWelcome to the Guardian’s weekly Brexit briefing. If you would like to receive it as a weekly email, please sign up here. You can also catch up with our Brexit Means … podcast right here.

What the chancellor is likely to say about economic growth, debt, borrowing and morePhilip Hammond has promised MPs a short, snappy affair when he delivers the government’s first spring statement to the Commons at about 12.30pm on Tuesday.Shorn of tax and spending measures, the chancellor’s 15- to 20-minute speech will play second fiddle to the budget, which has been moved to the autumn. Continue reading...

Survey shows hospitality sector expects a busier period for hiring than other parts of the economyHotels, restaurants, pubs and bars are preparing to hire at the fastest pace in a year, with many being forced to act due to growing fears of an exodus of migrant workers as Britain leaves the European Union.Despite a downturn in consumer spending forcing restaurant chains to close outlets en masse, the hospitality sector is expecting a busier period for hiring staff than any other part of the economy over the coming three months. Continue reading...

All the day’s economic and financial news, as shares rise in Asia and Europe and the US...but house prices fall in the UK capital

The government has no intention of trying to remedy the terrible damage austerity has inflicted on the lives of so manyBravo! Well done, Britain! It’s “a remarkable national effort,” gloats chief architect George Osborne, “we got there in the end”. Making his spring statement, chancellor Philip Hammond may allow himself a funereal glimmer of an almost smile. The current account deficit has been starved down to its 2% target. So easy! Any dieter determined to lose weight can just lop off their legs and, hey presto, the scales will say they made it. Swallowing tape-worms or emetic poisons will do it too. Easy if you ignore collateral damage, human suffering, irrecoverable losses and economic paralysis. Easy if your aim is ideological state-shrinkage.Wherever you look, you see the harm. Some can be fixed: leaking school buildings, closed libraries, neglected parks and playgrounds. But too much is beyond repair. You can’t summon up the skills and deep experience of all the teachers, nurses, doctors, administrators and technicians who have not been trained and hired to fill the gaps. Hard to replace those who have burned out under unbearable pressure. What of the million public servants gone, as Whitehall frantically tries to hire lost expertise to cope with Brexit?Child poverty will rise quickly, as benefit freezes, cuts and rising prices far outweigh minimum wage increasesRelated: A triumph for George Osborne’s austerity plan? Not when our social fabric is in tatters | Ann Pettifor Continue reading...

Ex-Wickes and Iceland boss Bill Grimsey says its time to take stock of retail changesRetail tsar Bill Grimsey is to again lead a troubleshooting task force looking to revive Britain’s high streets after a string of collapses prompted fresh fears that town centres will become semi-derelict.Grimsey, a retail veteran who previously headed up Wickes and Iceland, led an influential independent review back in 2013 but is to revisit the subject amid the failure of Maplin and Toys R Us.Related: Debenhams to rent flagship store space to hot deskers Continue reading...

Economic reports on falling high street footfall and credit card spending challenge Philip Hammond’s narrativeA chorus of downbeat reports on the health of the British economy published on Monday presents a sharp contrast to the chancellor Phillip Hammond’s spring statement message that there is “light at the end of the tunnel”.Credit card company Visa said spending on cards fell again in February, dropping 1.1%, and that the first quarter of 2018 was on track to be the “worst on record”. It said spending by consumers had fallen in nine out the past 10 months. Continue reading...

Tuesday’s speech promises studied blandness. Instead it should promise an end to the austerity causing such damage to families and public servicesThis week Philip Hammond will rise to make what will be perhaps the most unmemorable speech on the economic state of this country’s affairs that MPs have ever heard. Reports say that it will feature no spending increases and no tax changes in a low-key oration designed to go largely unnoticed by the wider public. The chancellor’s attempts to keep his speech out of headlines might be derailed by an assessment of Brexit Britain’s future annual payments to the European Union. If it were not for a legal requirement to respond to the Office for Budget Responsibility, Mr Hammond would not be saying anything at all.This is a mistake; Britain is at a pivotal point in its history. It has recovered more slowly from the economic shock of 2008 than any other crash in modern times. UK GDP growth is slowing while our biggest trading partners have seen their economies infused with vigour. Mr Hammond says there is “light at the end of the tunnel”. Yet Britain’s prospects look dim – and the shade of Brexit is barely upon the nation. Continue reading...

The demand and complexity of cases is increasing at the same time that our council budgets are being reduced, write cabinet leads for children’s services in north-west EnglandAs the cabinet leads for children’s services in the north-west of England we are urging the chancellor to allocate the additional funds we need to address the growing crisis in children’s social care. The demand and complexity of cases is increasing, creating overspends in our children’s services budgets, at the same time that our council budgets are being reduced. This is an unsustainable financial demand for each of our councils.In the north-west there are now more than 13,000 looked-after children. This represents a 20-year high and is the greatest number of children in care of any region in England. This has been driven by growth of 12% since 2013 alone, double the 6% increase in the rest of the country. Analysis from the Placements Northwest census identifies sharp escalation in costs, for example a £45m increase in expenditure on residential care placements this year. We have recorded 90,930 referrals in 2016-17, which is an increase of 2% on the previous year. Our data suggests that this is being driven by the increase in domestic abuse and mental ill health. Continue reading...

Calls for investment are growing but despite being in a good position the UK chancellor won’t want to create wavesFor years Britain has had not one annual budget but two. The real deal – the one where the chancellor stands outside 11 Downing Street with his little red box – has been in the spring, but there has also been another round of tax and spending measures included in an autumn statement.Philip Hammond has changed all that. As of now, there will be only one big set-piece event each year and it will be a budget in the late autumn. This week we will see the first spring statement, a pared-down affair in which the chancellor will provide the latest economic and public finance forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility, announce some areas for consultation and leave it at that. No tax sweeteners, no extra money for cabinet colleagues pleading for cash, no change to the government’s deficit-reduction approach.What is austerity?Gross domestic product (GDP) is a key government statistic and provides a measure of the UK's total economic activity. Continue reading...

Chancellor says public finances will improve but councils will not get major cash injectionThere is light at the end of the tunnel for the UK’s public finances, Philip Hammond has said, while strongly indicating that his financial statement this week is unlikely to herald any significant reduction in austerity.In his statement on Tuesday, which will bring no changes to tax or spending, the budget having been moved to autumn, the chancellor will set out the latest financial and debt figures. It has been reported that he will give a more upbeat assessment.Related: Chancellor’s spring statement is chance to sweeten years of austerity Continue reading...

The White House’s metals tariffs plan has numerous casualties, the big winner is the man in charge of trade and manufacturingDonald Trump’s threatened trade tariffs have claimed many victims: international trade, domestic steel consumers and Trump’s dissenting economic adviser Gary Cohn. But so far there has been one big winner – Peter Navarro, director of the Office of Trade and Manufacturing Policy.Navarro was a key architect of Trump’s “America First” policy of economic nationalism and a tireless critic of China’s economic policies – one of his books is decorated with a map of America being stabbed in the heart with a knife marked Made in China.Related: Trump's tariffs are mere political theater | James K Galbraith Continue reading...

Cheap borrowing since 2010 has fuelled property purchases and cappuccinos rather than skilled jobs and improved infrastructureThe chancellor’s budget remarks on Tuesday, now downgraded as a “policy-neutral” spring statement, will be a chance to look in the rear-view mirror and see what a missed opportunity the past eight years have been.It was a period dominated by George Osborne’s portrayal of the UK as a sinking ship, where every Whitehall department needed to be scaled down, welfare spending cut and some services provided by the state thrown overboard.The UK version of austerity was a leeches and mercury remedy, with George Osborne more akin to an 18th-century doctor than a 21st-century economic strategist Continue reading...

Trump imposes tariffs. The EU uses its scale to threaten a major response. Where will an isolated UK be when the giants clash?For me, one of the great tests of a play, film or opera is that it should be so absorbing that one’s mind switches off from day-to-day, mundane concerns.The Churchill film Darkest Hour is an exception that proves the rule. How could one possibly not reflect on the present failure of British leadership as we are reminded of the way Churchill rose to the occasion in the face of powerful opposition?Terrible things are going on in the world at present. Brexit has not yet happened Continue reading...

For parents who have been enjoying the freedom of living child-free, now comes research to spoil it allThe bedrooms have been redecorated in grown-up colours, the 25-year-old soft toys chucked out, the washing machine is blissfully underused and, thanks to the apparent current raging addictions of baby boomers, a holiday or two – cruising in the Med, the Antarctic, anywhere that avoids dry land – have been booked. And then they’re back.According to a recent study by the London School of Economics (LSE), adult children who return to the family home after a period away – often at university – cause a significant decline in their parents’ quality of life and wellbeing.It’s not easy for a twentysomething having to witness the daily spectacle of baby boomers bent on rediscovering their 60s mojoRelated: Boomerang offspring damage parents' wellbeing, study findsRelated: Ten ways for parents to survive an empty nest Continue reading...

Both Britain and America have championed free trade from a position of global strength. But their views in the past were very differentFor steel and aluminium read wool. For trade rivalry between the US and China read the struggle between England and the Low Countries. For Donald Trump read Edward III. There is nothing new about the use of protectionism as a policy tool.England in the 14th century was in a similar position to a poor developing country today. It produced a lot of a staple commodity – wool – which it exported across the Channel to be turned into cloth by Flemish weavers.Washington’s support for free trade started to wane when its industrial supremacy was threatened by Japan in the 1980s Continue reading...

The EU does not want the president’s tariffs to create a spiral of retaliation. But Europe is a target – and a battle looks inevitableBlast furnace B will fire up this summer in Granite City, Illinois, giving up to 500 steel workers a job and offering President Donald Trump a fitting emblem for his campaign to put America first. Mothballed for several years by US Steel, the blast furnace sits next to the Missouri river, north of St Louis, where it will smelt iron made newly competitive by Trump’s decision to slap a 25% tariff on steel imports and 10% on aluminium, including from the UK and Europe.Within hours of Trump first propounding his protectionist move in a tweet, the European commission hit back with the threat of its own measures: extra tariffs on everything from orange juice to Harley-Davidson motorbikes. Continue reading...

The Wisconsin manufacturer is struggling with falling sales – and Trump’s tariffs on steel imports could add $30m to its costsHarley-Davidson is not having a great year. In January, the legendary bike company, struggling to reverse a four-year slide in sales, had to close its Kansas City factory. Now Donald Trump – who seems as if he’d like to be a Harley man – has added to its woes.This week’s announcement of steel tariffs on US imports could add $30m to the company’s costs, according to Wedbush Securities, an investment firm. Worse still, European leaders are threatening retaliation, and several symbols of Americana – including Kentucky whiskey, Levi’s and Harley-Davidson motorcycles – are on their list.Related: China promises 'necessary response' to US tariffs as trade war fears grow Continue reading...

British politics and culture feel nostalgic about the Commonwealth and hope to rekindle the old relationship. But the reality is not so simpleThe countdown to leave the European Union began in the British summer of 2016, but nobody in the country seemed to know in which direction they were headed. Those who voted to leave don’t know what kind of future they would like; those who voted to stay don’t know what they can do to stop the process they are certain will create only misery. British politicians from the two major parties – Conservative and Labour – aren’t helping.The Conservatives are led by a prime minister who voted to stay and seems reluctant to leave the EU; Labour is led by a man who never wanted the UK to join the EU, and must somehow convince voters who wish to remain that he can strike a better bargain.Like a divorcee on the rebound, Britain is now desperately seeking to woo its old flame, the CommonwealthRelated: EU scorns UK's 'pick and mix' approach to trade post-BrexitRelated: Jeremy Corbyn insists UK cannot remain in single market after BrexitRelated: The next head of the Commonwealth must not be a royal from Brexit Britain | Nalini MohabirRelated: Dunkirk and Darkest Hour fuel Brexit fantasies – even if they weren’t meant to | Ian JackOne of the major legacies of the British empire is a body of laws that curb civil libertiesRelated: Who can save the post-Brexit economy? Black professors | Bernadine Idowu-Onibokun Continue reading...

As the man relied on to make sense of the numbers in the chancellor’s spring statement, the IFS director warns that cuts have taken Britain to crunch point – and that Brexit will make it worseWhen the chancellor Philip Hammond sits down on Tuesday after delivering his first spring statement – the streamlined replacement for what we used to call the budget – one man will be greatly in demand, popping up on every media outlet to tell us what the figures on borrowing levels and the projected deficit really mean. That man is Paul Johnson, director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS). I suggest to him that his official role is to pour a bucket of cold water over Hammond’s head, and he doesn’t disagree. “Economics is the dismal science, after all,” he says.Happily, 51-year-old Johnson is not at all dismal. He is clever, sparky and down to earth – probably because he sees life through the lens of a father with four demanding sons going through the education system. He crunches all the numbers, but he also understands the personal stories behind those numbers. He has written about how his dyslexic second son has battled through further education and been disappointed by the threadbare nature of Britain’s vocational training system. That, in turn, informs his critique of a society unduly preoccupied with universities and graduates. Johnson, despite a mildly nerdy manner, is the opposite of the ivory-towered academic.Related: Stretched councils raid reserves to cope with social care, NAO warnsRelated: Brexit opponents raise alarm over bleak impact analysis reports Continue reading...

Mark Murton on austerity’s failings, and Angela Crum Ewing and Jane Ghosh on the pay rise for NHS staffGPs have taken the unprecedented step of urging patients to write to their MPs about the funding crisis in the NHS (Complain to your MPs, top doctor tells patients amid worst ever A&E figures, 9 March). This situation, and the crisis in public services that has left councils at the point of bankruptcy, did not need to happen. Many of the cuts are a false economy that do not lead to savings.A report from Policy in Practice showed that in Croydon the benefit cap, which was supposed to save the taxpayer money, led to evictions, and it calculated the cost of just one homeless application to the council to be around £8,000. Continue reading...

ONS January data also shows trade deficit widening, raising concerns about robustness of Britain’s economyAn unexpected decline in housebuilding meant the UK construction industry contracted for the ninth month in a row in January.The number of new homes built dropped 9% compared with the previous month as the threat of higher interest rates and rising labour costs deterred building firms from starting new projects. Continue reading...

The US non-farm payrolls report showed 313,000 jobs were created last month, smashing expectations, but wage growth slowed to 2.6%

Australia is hoping for an exemption from US steel and aluminium tariffsThe United States will be imposing a 25% tariff on steel imports and a 10% tariff on aluminium imports.Related: Australia can still win exemption on metal tariffs, Trump hintsRelated: Global alarm bells sound over full-blown trade war Continue reading...

US president says Australia is a ‘great country’ but stops short of saying it will be spared the 25% levyDonald Trump has given his strongest hint yet that Australia will be exempt from US tariffs on steel and aluminium imports.Related: Anyone, anyone? What happened when the US last introduced tariffsRelated: Donald Trump's tariffs 'highly regrettable', Reserve Bank governor says Continue reading...

All the day’s economic and financial news, as Trump presses on with tariffs despite criticism and fears of a trade war

Trade is not a zero-sum game: all should benefit from engaging in it. But the world that exists has not been designed this way

Previously leaked document finds poor economic growth in all models for future UK-EU relationshipAnti-Brexit campaigners have seized on a bleak Whitehall assessment of the economic impact of leaving the European Union, published following a battle over government secrecy.MPs voted in January for the document to be released in full, but its publication was resisted by the Brexit secretary, David Davis.Related: What is in the EU's Brexit guidelines document?Staying in the single market and customs unionRelated: Hammond: UK could reject any Brexit deal excluding financial services Continue reading...

A raft of reports shows a collective neglect of children, with their wellbeing in reverse. They are the silent victims of Tory austerityThis is no country for children. Pious politicians pretend “children are our future”. But the UK seems to prefer its past. In rights and priorities, children are standing at the counter waiting to be served, as adults shove them out of the way, with a cascade of reports revealing our collective neglect of children.The National Audit Office on Thursday reports on the crippled finances of local government, funding cut by half, despite skyrocketing demand for social services, especially for children. Vanishing early prevention with overstretched social workers causes an alarming rise in children in care reaching an unprecedented 72,670 last year. Every study shows why: poverty, lack of housing, neglected parental mental health.Related: Ofsted head seeks more powers to inspect unregistered schoolsRelated: The Tories never cared about eliminating the deficit. It was just a pretext to slash the state | Frances Ryan Continue reading...

David Cameron and George Osborne are celebrating this week. But their austerity programme has left lives in ruinsThey say that a picture looks different, depending on the viewers’ perspective. The same can be said for politics. The continuing, unprecedented cuts to Britain’s public services, for example, will appear quite different to a disabled person unable to get to the toilet because their social care has been halved than they will to, say, a former prime minister reading the news at his mansion.Two events from the past week display this stark contrast. In response to news that Britain has eliminated its day-to-day deficit budget, the delayed target originally set by George Osborne when he imposed austerity on public services in 2010, the former chancellor tweeted: “We got there in the end – a remarkable national effort. Thank you.” David Cameron followed self-congratulatory suit with: “It was the right thing to do.”We got there in the end - a remarkable national effort. Thank you. https://t.co/8D23AKbuwHFar from revelling in success, the Conservatives should be considering the consequences of their failureRelated: The Tories’ obscene joke: shred the safety net, then toss people into it | Frances Ryan Continue reading...

Foreign minister Wang Yi warns that the only outcome from Trump’s protectionist measures will be ‘harmful’The prospect of a trade war between China and the United States has increased after Beijing’s foreign minister said it would make a “necessary response” in the event of Donald Trump introducing punitive tariffs on steel and aluminium imports.The US president was expected to approve the 25% levy on steel and 10% on aluminium imports this week, possibly as early as Thursday.Related: A perfect economic storm made Italy ripe for a protest voteRelated: Trump's tariff plan a black day for the world, BHP boss saysChina has been asked to develop a plan for the year of a One Billion Dollar reduction in their massive Trade Deficit with the United States. Our relationship with China has been a very good one, and we look forward to seeing what ideas they come back with. We must act soon! Continue reading...

Boasting about avoiding technical recession for 26 years rings pretty hollow when growth is so persistently anaemic

Other countries may also avoid import taxes amid reported concern in administration about national security alliancesDonald Trump could exempt Canada, Mexico and other countries from stiff import taxes he is expected to impose this week, the White House said on Wednesday.The US president and his allies previously indicated that there would be no exceptions to the trade tariffs, which have been condemned by the European Union (EU) and led to the resignation of the president’s chief economic adviser, Gary Cohn.Related: Gary Cohn: experienced Democrat was singular figure in Trump's White HouseRelated: Donald Trump's top economic adviser Gary Cohn quits Continue reading...

The EC has drawn up a list of American products to target if Donald Trump doesn’t back down over steel tariffs

‘I was given a leaflet on how to apply for benefits and “rewarded” with 10 yoga classes,’ writes one woman, whose husband died last year. Plus Keir Harding questions the zero suicide policy

Halifax data comes days after Nationwide reported that UK house prices fell in FebruaryThe annual rate of house price growth has fallen to 1.8%, its lowest level for almost five years, according to the Halifax.With the most recent official data showing earnings growth averaging 2.5%, that means that unusually, wages are currently outpacing house prices.

Encouraging continued studying would tap into the potential of black and minority ethnic people, adding billions to the UK’s wealthAs the Brexit deadline creeps closer and closer, like a looming fog over the country, the UK economy is struggling. But there is a solution – pointed to in Ruby McGregor-Smith’s independent review, Race in the Workplace (February 2017). “The potential benefit to the UK economy from full representation of BME [black, minority and ethnic] individuals across the labour market … is estimated to be £24bn a year, which represents 1.3% of GDP.”The report indicates that “14% of the working age population [is] from a BME background”, but “many ethnic minorities [are] concentrated in lower-paying jobs”. As such, they may not have access to certain facilities or skills, and so may require extra help in order to obtain access to certain careers.Related: 14,000 British professors – but only 50 are blackRelated: Employers admit there’s a gender pay gap. What about race? | Omar Khan Continue reading...

State attorney general says of agreement: ‘While the financial crisis may be behind us, New Yorkers are still feeling the effects’Royal Bank of Scotland on Tuesday agreed to pay $500m to settle charges of using deceptive practices while marketing and selling mortgage-backed securities before the 2008 financial crisis.Announcing the agreement, the New York attorney general, Eric Schneiderman, said: “While the financial crisis may be behind us, New Yorkers are still feeling the effects of the housing crash. Home values plummeted. Vacant homes consumed neighborhoods. And for many New Yorkers, affordable housing fell out of reach.Related: Elizabeth Warren attacks 'dangerous, wrong' bill to relax rules on US banks Continue reading...

Chancellor disputes French minister’s claim that trade deal cannot include financial sectorPhilip Hammond will insist on Wednesday that Britain can overcome EU opposition and include financial services in a post-Brexit free trade deal.The chancellor is expected to use a speech in the City to challenge the idea – voiced strongly by France’s finance minister on Tuesday – that financial services have never been included in trade deals because of their complexity and the risks to stability. Continue reading...

All the day’s economic and financial news, as hopes of a breakthrough between North and South Korea cheer investors

Democratic senator says Congress has forgotten the ‘devastating impact of the financial crisis’ and vows to stop bill passing the SenateCongress has forgotten the “devastating impact of the financial crisis”, Senator Elizabeth Warren said on Tuesday as Republicans moved closer to relaxing banking regulations implemented after the financial crash of 2008.Related: Three ways to remake the American economy for all | Elizabeth Warren Continue reading...

People want to shop but inflation means they cannot afford non-essential items, says retail bodyRetailers suffered tough trading in February after a squeeze on household incomes forced consumers to spend more money on food and essential items.The British Retail Consortium, the lobby group for high street shops, said more of consumers’ monthly salaries were being swallowed up by higher prices for food, leaving little cash leftover to spend on other items.