Structural reforms since financial crisis are slowly but surely starting to bear fruit, with the lowest unemployment since 2009 and production ratcheted upIt was a story few predicted: the eurozone is growing faster than the United States. When Jean-Claude Juncker gave his annual state of the union speech on Wednesday last week, Europe’s booming economy was near the top of his list. Ten years since the crisis struck, “Europe’s economy is finally bouncing back,†the European commission president told MEPs. Detailing the economic resurgence, but also referring to the EU’s newfound unity after Britain’s vote to leave, Juncker declared: “the wind is back in Europe’s sailsâ€.
Some on both sides of the Channel believe that trade and prosperity will win the day. But in the EU just as in the UK, politics now trumps economicsThere is a shared belief among Leavers and Remainers to the effect that when the Brexit cliff-edge comes into view, London and Brussels will hatch a face-saving compromise.It’s not entirely clear what kind of gleaming alloy can be forged from the fire of claim and counterclaim on either side of the channel, but there should be a way, they think, to cut through the noise and make something solid and lasting that shows neither side is entirely inept. Continue reading...
Jean-Claude Juncker believes Europe is starting to recover at last. But the picture from the union’s most fallible economy is very mixedIs the eurozone on the mend? Jean-Claude Juncker certainly thinks so. The EU president was upbeat in Brussels last week as he gave his annual state-of-the-union address, proclaiming that “the wind is back in Europe’s sailsâ€.Juncker’s optimism appeared to match the view from Greece, the currency bloc’s problem child. In Athens only the previous week, the visiting French president, Emmanuel Macron, had been even more enthusiastic, declaring against the backdrop of the Acropolis that Greece’s prolonged crisis was over, and that therefore Europe’s was too.Related: Weakest eurozone economies on long road to recoveryRelated: The eurozone strikes back - why Europe is booming again Continue reading...
Bank of England MPC member says rising inflation and stronger household spending merit increase ‘as early as coming months’The prospect of the first interest rate rise in a decade has sent the pound to its highest level since the day after the Brexit vote and put debt-laden consumers on notice of higher borrowing costs.The rally in the pound against the dollar provided some relief for Briton’s travelling abroad and comes amid heightened expectations that the Bank of England could increase rates as soon as November.Related: UK interest rates stay at 0.25% but Bank of England hints rise is looming Continue reading...
The Bank of England has hinted the first rate rise in almost a decade is now likely, and soon. So how much will it cost?A member of the Bank of England’s rate-setting committee has fuelled speculation that interest rates could rise as soon as November. Gertjan Vlieghe put forward the arguments for a rise in rates “as early as in the coming months†in a speech to economists in London. Continue reading...
Study says spending cuts have encouraged rise of robots and AI and heightened job insecurity, particularly for womenAusterity budgets adopted by governments across the world since the 2008 financial crash are to blame for undermining the job security of millions of workers and threatening the progress made by women in the workplace, according to a UN report.The threat to jobs from the growing use of robots and artificial intelligence has been exacerbated by a lack of government investment and lack of state support for skills training, the report also said.Related: Two million UK families face £50-a-week cut in incomeRelated: We have the power to create the economy we want – let’s use it | Tom Kibasi Continue reading...
Pounds jumps 1% as governor says Bank is ‘beginning to shift’ on when to raise rates, with a rise possible ‘in coming months’ to stem inflationThe Bank of England has raised the prospect of an interest rate rise as early as November, in an attempt to relieve the squeeze on living standards from surging prices and sluggish wage growth.On Thursday, Threadneedle Street left interest rates at their record low of 0.25% amid fears over Brexit, but dropped a heavy hint that the first increase in the cost of borrowing for a decade may come sooner than expected if the economy continues to strengthen.Related: Bank of England leaves rates on hold, but hints that hike is coming - business liveRelated: Northern Rock investors' compensation claim just doesn't stand up | Nils Pratley Continue reading...
Upbeat chairman says situation is less challenging than six months ago and that Brexit-fuelled fall in pound and resultant price rises will start to ebbNext said the outlook for sales was brighter than its previous gloomy predictions as it reported a near 10% fall in first half profits.At the start of 2017, the Next chief executive, Simon Wolfson, warned of a tough year ahead but on Thursday he softened his stance: “While the external environment looks set to remain difficult, from where we stand today our prospects appear somewhat less challenging that they did six months ago.â€Related: John Lewis profits halve as chairman warns over Brexit uncertainty Continue reading...
Hyperglobalisation has concentrated massive wealth in a few hands, boosting the cult of materialism that the great civil rights campaigner warned us aboutFifty years ago, at New York’s Riverside Church, Martin Luther King made a passionate plea for a more equal, more just, more peaceful and more dignified world. Calling for “a radical revolution of valuesâ€, King concluded: “We must rapidly begin … the shift from a thing-oriented society to a person-oriented society. When machines and computers, profit motives and property rights are considered more important than people, the giant triplets of racism, extreme materialism and militarism are incapable of being conquered.â€Related: No, wealth isn’t created at the top. It is merely devoured there | Rutger BregmanRelated: No alternative to austerity? That lie has now been nailed | Owen Jones Continue reading...
Though it might be deserved, the chance of campaigners securing reparation through suasion is extremely lowOne sympathises, of course, with the former shareholders in Northern Rock who are still campaigning for compensation a decade after the bank’s nationalisation. They are not faceless City institutions. Many are small shareholders who had invested substantial sums, presumably in the belief the Rock was a solid north-east institution run by a competent board, and lost the lot.The problem with the compensation idea, however, is that it doesn’t stand up. Yes, it is probably true that the Rock was not insolvent, just suffering an extreme liquidity crisis. After all, the Treasury is set to make a clear profit from the run-off of the mortgage book. But those profits are not evidence of unfair confiscation. Taxpayers assumed a risk the Rock was unable to bear because it had been running a risky and reckless funding model that couldn’t withstand the crisis. For a bank, lack of liquidity can be a life-threatening event.Related: Darling: Brexit would not have happened without banking crisis Continue reading...
Fixing our financial system will be the key not only to stable growth, but also to stable politicsIt’s an amazing fact that a decade on from the financial crisis, Americans are still arguing about how to reform our financial system. Even as the Trump administration argues for a roll-back of the hard-won Dodd-Frank banking regulation, it’s worth noting that disenchantment with Wall Street is, paradoxically, one of the things that brought the president to office.
The Tories claim to be the party of economic stability yet are driving the country to a cliff edge. A Labour push for a pragmatic Brexit could be pivotalWill Brexit become the Conservative party’s Iraq war? It is in many ways a poisoned chalice: its effects are incredibly complex and capable of causing bitter divides among ministers. It is being negotiated haphazardly and will demoralise the party for years to come.I don’t write this as an embittered “remoanerâ€. I used to be a hard Brexiteer – I even worked on comunications close to the heart of Vote Leave. But I’ve now converted to a soft Brexit position. My version of our departure from the European Union is largely based around the Flexcit pamphlet, comfortably the most useful and comprehensively researched body of work on Brexit yet produced. As a result I fall into what appears to be a niche category of leave campaigner: I try to be as pragmatic as possible about our departure.Related: Tory Brexit is doomed. Corbyn has a chance to build the Europe he wants | John Palmer Continue reading...
With neoliberalism in crisis, it’s time to emphasise the importance to people of belonging and co-operation, argues this optimistic call to actionThat which is dangerous can also be thrilling. Many liberal democracies are engaged in something dangerous, as questions of identity, community and nationhood are being asked with a fresh urgency, with some of the answers turning out to be deeply disturbing. But is there also something thrilling going on? The capacity for democracy to throw up surprises, such as Britain’s 2017 general election result, is mesmerising. Brexit may be a famous act of economic self-harm, but something new will be born one way or the other. Still the danger persists and may be growing.That this is happening now, as opposed to 10 or 20 years ago, is a direct consequence of the disintegration of the economic policy framework that has held sway in Britain, the US, the European commission and many multilateral institutions for much of the previous 40 years. That framework is often referred to as “neoliberalismâ€, even if the term irritates a certain class of pundit, for whom it is some sort of swearword without any clear referent. Its disintegration is producing conflicting sympathies, as many on the left come to realise the xenophobia that can be unleashed in the absence of stable market-based rules.Related: Neoliberalism: the idea that swallowed the world Continue reading...
UK chancellor hints he won’t tolerate protectionist measures from EU aiming to lure business awayThe UK will not water down rules to protect its financial services sector in the wake of Brexit, the chancellor said on Wednesday as he sent a message to his counterparts in the EU that he would not tolerate protectionist measures being imposed to lure business way.Philip Hammond also told his audience of financiers in a set-piece speech in the City that his priority was to devise policies that would allow the UK to retain its place as a leading global financial centre. Continue reading...
The rising tide of rough sleeping and families ending up in temporary accommodation should have alerted the government to the effects of its policies. It’s shocking that no one seemed curious about this hardshipThe National Audit Office report into homelessness lays bare the legacy of human waste caused by the callous indifference and intellectual vacuity of Compassionate Conservatism, a Tory creed – promoted by David Cameron – where responsibility shifted from the state to individuals, families and communities.Looking at the NAO’s assessment of the cack-handed way that the housing safety net was handled, this “philosophy†appears an empty political slogan designed to shield the Tory party from the charge it was balancing the budget on the backs of the poor. It’s no surprise that a mixture of high rents and welfare cuts put people out on the streets. Rough sleeping more than doubled since 2010. The numbers of households in temporary accommodation rose by 60%. Continue reading...
Former chancellor admits government lost control for a few days 10 years ago and says people have felt ‘badly treated’ sinceThe UK would not have voted for Brexit had it not been for the banking crisis that began 10 years ago with the run on Northern Rock, according to the former chancellor Alistair Darling.Lord Darling admitted the Labour government “lost control†for a few days around this time 10 years ago when customers were queuing outside branches of the lender to withdraw their cash, and said the consequences were still being felt today.Related: UK's high street banks are accident waiting to happen, says report Continue reading...
Study predicts huge and growing gulf between white US households and everyone else could be disastrous for future of America’s middle classGrowing up in the projects of Baltimore in the 1980s, things like savings accounts, stocks and bonds were completely foreign to Mysia Hamilton. Asked if her parents could have passed along some money to help her buy a car, go to school or put into a house, she can’t help but chuckle.“No, that wasn’t there. There was no wealth. My mother was working, she was providing – we weren’t on the street begging – but there was no money in terms of ‘here you go’. No money to pass down.â€Three years from now, white US households are projected to own 86 times more wealth than black householdsAfrican-American households are making ​​‘middle-income money’ – but have the wealth of a white high-school dropoutRelated: TV made America's bail system famous. Now reformers want to end it Continue reading...
Workers see real-terms fall in living standards as rise in self-employment pushes unemployment to 4.3%Wage rises in Britain have failed to keep pace with inflation, according to the latest official figures, despite a buoyant labour market that saw unemployment fall to its lowest level since 1975.Average earnings increased by 2.1% in the three months to July compared with a 2.6% increase in inflation in July that left workers suffering a 0.4% real-terms fall in the value of their pay packets.Related: UK households 'at breaking point' as real wages continue to fall - business live Continue reading...
Bank of England’s stress tests are not gruelling enough, says report to mark 10 years since run on Northern RockThe UK’s high street banks are an accident waiting to happen and could struggle in another financial crisis, according to a report published on Wednesday to mark the 10th anniversary of the run on Northern Rock.The report criticises the annual health checks – stress tests – that have been conducted by the Bank of England since the crisis and concludes that the methodology used by Threadneedle Street is flawed and the tests not gruelling enough. Continue reading...
The chancellor insisted police and prison officers’ rises will come from existing budgets – and they are well below inflationPhilip Hammond’s re-emergence as a power in the cabinet can be seen clearly as the battle rages inside government over the thorny question of public sector pay.There may have been a green light from No 10 to rip up the current cap and give the police and prison officers a 1% rise plus a 1% bonus for 2017-18, but the Treasury has made sure the bonus is not part of workers’ consolidated, pensionable pay and is funded from within existing budgets.Related: Public sector pay cap to be lifted next year, No 10 says Continue reading...
by Sally Weale Education correspondent on (#31YBH)
Graduates do not get as good a return on their investment in English system as in other OECD countries, says Andreas SchleicherA leading global education expert has intervened in the row over student tuition fees in England, warning about value for money as earnings for graduates become more volatile.Andreas Schleicher, the education director of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), endorsed the English system in which students pay annual tuition fees of £9,000 through loans, saying it had provided sustainability to the sector which had been able to expand as a result.Related: Coming soon, a university where students could set their own tuition fees Continue reading...
The 2016 census report underlines the strength of the economic recovery Obama oversaw after the worst recession in living memoryAmerican incomes rose significantly for a second year in a row in 2016, bouncing back after the lost decade that followed the last recession.The census report covers 2016, the last year of the Obama administration, and underlines the strength of the economic recovery he oversaw after the worst recession in living memory.Related: Obama's labour market report card: not bad, could have done better Continue reading...
More expensive petrol, clothing and food fuel rise in CPI as unions call for pay rises and end to public sector pay capThe squeeze on Britain’s living standards worsened last month after the increased cost of importing fuel, clothes and food pushed inflation back up to 2.9%, from 2.6% in July.Women’s clothes were among the items to jump in price in August as the low value of the pound earlier this year pushed up the prices in sectors heavily dependent on imported goods.Related: Public sector pay cap to be lifted next year, No 10 saysInflation is when prices rise. Deflation is the opposite - price decreases over time - but inflation is far more common. Continue reading...
The chancellor may continue to predict the long-term direction of the public finances as if Brexit were not happening – but it is unsustainable and harms democracy
The stock market may care only about the growth rate, but most Americans should worry about how growth is achievedDonald Trump has boasted that his policies will produce sustained 3%-4% growth for many years to come. His prediction flies in the face of the judgment of many professional forecasters, including on Wall Street and at the Federal Reserve, who expect that the US will be lucky to achieve even 2% growth.
With a dynamic new leader in France and a fresh mandate in Germany, there would be a chance to correct monetary union’s flawsWith Emmanuel Macron’s victory in the French presidential election and Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union enjoying a comfortable lead in opinion polls ahead of Germany’s federal election on 24 September, a window has opened for eurozone reform. The euro has always been a Franco-German project. With a dynamic new leader in one country and a fresh popular mandate in the other, there would be an opportunity for France and Germany to correct their creation’s worst flaws.But the two sides remain deeply divided. Macron, in longstanding French tradition, insists that the monetary union suffers from too little centralisation. The eurozone, he argues, needs its own finance minister and parliament. It requires a budget in the hundreds of billions of euros to underwrite investment projects and augment spending in countries with high unemployment, Macron insists.Related: UK economy 'treading water' as eurozone stretches ahead, says BCC Continue reading...
Transport costs drive rising inflation as petrol and diesel prices increase but wages fail to keep apaceBritain’s cost of living squeeze shows no sign of easingwith new figures showing that prices are still rising faster than wages.Inflation is when prices rise. Deflation is the opposite - price decreases over time - but inflation is far more common.Related: To understand the UK's low-pay crisis, Mark Carney needs to get out more | Phillip Inman Continue reading...
The IPPR should be thanked for identifying our failures as an economy on the cusp of a ‘decade of disruption’. While the scale of the analysis is to be praised, the thinktank is yet to outline the scale of the solutionThe report released last week by the centre-left thinktank IPPR commission on economic justice comes not a moment too soon. In hosting a commission bringing together public intellectuals, representatives of industry, finance and tech, the IPPR seeks to publicise our failures as an economy on the cusp of a “decade of disruptionâ€. The topography of the economy features some very low valleys: as a nation, the UK is not generating rising prosperity for a majority; a high employment rate masks an increasingly insecure “casualised†labour force; and Britain remains a pretty unequal place. The UK is damned as a low productivity economy, investing less than our rivals, with an overall current account deficit that ranks the largest of all the G7 countries.While a picture can be painted that Britain is doing all right, this does not reflect many people’s experience. Although GDP has risen about 10% since the crisis, disposable income per person has been roughly flat. For some, hope is draining away: a survey by the Resolution Foundation found that 48% of respondents think millennials will have a worse standard of life than their parents. Continue reading...
The Bank of England enforced a 1% rise on striking staff yet its fantasy forecasts claim a 3% rise for the UK as a whole is just around the corner. Really? How?The Bank of England governor, Mark Carney, needs to look no further than the pay of his own staff to figure out why – when he believes we’re on the verge of a pay boom – most people’s wage rises are stuck in first gear.
Shadow health secretary calls on Tory MPs to back motion to lift ‘unfair’ cap as opposition seeks to pressure PM to actLabour is to force a Commons vote on scrapping the 1% public sector pay cap.
Michel Barnier did not say we needed to be taught a lesson. We are not being blackmailed or fined. We are simply unwilling to accept our obligations‘Sometimes you get the impression that the British are talking to themselves,†said the outgoing French ambassador, Sylvie Bermann, on the Today programme last week.There have been suggestions that the French are rubbing their hands and doing their best to lure as much business as they can from the City of London to Paris. Continue reading...
The case for reform is plain to see but it won’t happen because too many at the top have stakes in the old orderIt was a glorious September morning. But I was in a ruminative mood, walking towards Westminster’s Church House for the unveiling of another damning account of Britain’s economy. It was the launch of the interim report from the Institute of Public Policy’s (IPPR) economic commission. Time for Change is one of the best I’ve read and yet I was wondering how its unanswerable assessment of our economy and the need for systemic reform has so little purchase on the national debate.I made similar arguments in my book The State We’re In 20 years ago and have attended many such launches ever since, often graced by bishops and some daring business executives prepared to break cover and speak out. It’s the same story of underinvestment; a woeful track record on R&D; overemphasis on high, short-term profits; an incredibly poor record on productivity and stagnating real wages. On almost every international comparison, Britain fares badly, with a desperately weak export sector overfocused on financial services and a few manufacturing industries. Continue reading...
IMF study finds that the type of tax cuts introduced last year are too weak to raise the welfare of most of the population and never pay for themselvesA new study by the IMF examining the impacts of tax cuts has found that while lowering tax rates for the rich will stimulate the economy, it does so at the great cost of increased inequality.Most damningly, it finds the benefits of tax cuts targeted at the wealthiest 25% – such as the one the Turnbull government brought in last year – are far too weak to raise the welfare of the majority of the population and also never pay for themselves.Related: Beware tax cuts for 'Middle Australia'. Above-average earners benefit mostRelated: Company tax cut cost reaches $65.4bn over 10 yearsRelated: Is it time to make the Medicare levy progressive? High income earners can afford it | Greg Jericho Continue reading...
The chancellor’s options in the autumn budget to allay voters’ frustrations over austerity are diminishing by the dayIn the weeks that followed their disastrous election result, a delegation of Tory MPs marched to Downing Street with a clear message for the prime minister and her team. After years of austerity, voters’ patience was running out, and some positivity was needed.The MPs went away from the meeting convinced they had secured an end to the public sector pay cap that would mark a loosening of spending cuts that they could use to show their constituents that the government was listening.NHS Providers sai the service was on course for disaster unless an extra £350m was found for beds and staffIt all adds up to a very long queue outside the chancellor’s door Continue reading...
Farmers, hoteliers and caterers say leaked proposals to limit free movement would spell catastrophe – but what would they really mean?A previously muted British business establishment is now in full cry over Brexit. The leak last week of proposals to restrict the ability of European Union nationals to live and work in the UK were described as “catastrophic†by one employers’ group. Voices from housebuilding to aerospace, farming and hotels raised concerns over the plans, which signalled a hard Brexit is very much on the cards.The warning of catastrophe came from the British Hospitality Association, while the National Farmers Union said the draft Home Office plans would cause “massive disruption to the entire food supply chainâ€. The reaction was also fuelled by the government’s refusal to disown the plans, alongside its apparent support of a hard Brexit agenda. We answer the key questions raised by the leak, including the potential consequences for the UK economy. Continue reading...
Margaret Thatcher | George Osborne | British Virgin Islands | The Fife | Racing tips | Walter BeckerPerhaps there was no room for M Thatcher, MA Oxon (Letters, 7 September). She had at least half a dozen failings: Proposed withdrawal of HMS Endurance from the South Atlantic, precipitating invasion of the Falkland Islands; squandering North Sea oil and gas revenues; premature closure of coal pits; refusing EEC matching funding for regional aid; refusing to renew social housing; imposition of the poll tax first on Scotland, undermining the union…
by Phillip Inman and Richard Partington on (#31HTV)
Exports of British-made goods to EU increase by £1.3bn, underlining country’s reliance on trade with continental EuropeBritain’s efforts to expand trade in goods beyond the European Union’s border took a knock in July after official figures showed the UK’s deficit with the rest of the world widened following a drop in exports.The deficit in the trade in goods with non-EU countries widened by £2.4bn while exports to the EU grew to cut the trade gap by £1.3bn.Related: UK economy 'treading water' as eurozone stretches ahead, says BCC Continue reading...
We should have learned the lessons of Hurricanes Katrina and Sandy – we need political action to help prevent disastersTropical Storm Harvey has left in its wake upended lives and enormous property damage, estimated by some at $150-$180bn. But the storm that pummelled the Texas coast for the better part of a week also raises deep questions about the United States’ economic system and politics.It is ironic, of course, that an event so related to climate change would occur in a state that is home to so many climate-change deniers – and where the economy depends so heavily on the fossil fuels that drive global warming. Of course, no particular climate event can be directly related to the increase in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. But scientists have long predicted that such increases would boost not only average temperatures, but also weather variability – and especially the occurrence of extreme events such as Harvey. As the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded several years ago, “There is evidence that some extremes have changed as a result of anthropogenic influences, including increases in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases.†Astrophysicist Adam Frank succinctly explained: “Greater warmth means more moisture in the air which means stronger precipitation.â€Related: After the storm: how should cities rebuild post hurricanes like Harvey and Irma? Continue reading...
British Chambers of Commerce cuts growth forecasts blaming squeeze on household budgets and failure of exporters to capitalise on low poundBritain is locked into a “low growth trajectory†that will see GDP growth dip next year while the eurozone shrugs off Brexit uncertainty to stretch ahead, according to a leading business group.The British Chambers of Commerce said a squeeze on household budgets and the failure of exporters to capitalise on the low pound meant the UK was “treading waterâ€. Continue reading...
David Reed says deterring EU migrants could benefit British workers but devastate the economy; Emma Gee says the contribution of non-EU immigrants to the UK coffers should not be overlooked; while Stephen Games writes that morally it is low-skilled foreign workers whom the UK should encourage to comeThe immigration strategy discussed in the leaked Home Office document could be as beneficial to British workers as the Black Death (Revealed: Tories’ Brexit plan to deter EU migrants from Britain, 6 September). My limited historical knowledge tells me that when the working population was decimated as the bubonic plague spread throughout Britain (and Europe), employers suddenly had to start treating the people working for them decently, even paying them enough to live on.Of course, the document fails to address the impact their proposals will have on every area of economic activity across the whole country: no more cheap crop harvesters, nurses, carers, shop assistants, road cleaners, office workers, taxi and bus drivers etc. Nor does it even think about the massive impact that having to pay people real wages will have on business finances across the whole economy. Continue reading...
John Cryan says bubbles are emerging in parts of market ahead of European Central Bank monetary policy meetingIt is time to start raising interest rates, the chief executive of Deutsche Bank has said, warning that bubbles are emerging in parts of the market.Speaking in Frankfurt, John Cryan said: “The era of cheap money in Europe should come to an end, despite the strong euro.â€Related: Business Today: sign up for a morning shot of financial newsRelated: Deutsche Bank boss says 'big number' of staff will lose jobs to automation Continue reading...
Bit by bit, the abuse of disabled people in the UK is being normalised. Talk of a human catastrophe in this country is in no way exaggeratedIt’s often said that the mark of a civilised society is how it treats its most vulnerable citizens in times of austerity. And in the past week, Britain has had not one but two damning judgments – the first from a committee room in Geneva, the second in a courtroom in London.Last Thursday a United Nations inquiry into disability rights in the UK ruled that the government is failing in its duties in everything from education, work and housing to health, transport and social security. Presented with overwhelming evidence of a range of regressive policies and multibillion-pound cuts to disability services, it described the treatment of disabled people in this country as a “human catastropheâ€. Continue reading...
by Justin McCurry in Tokyo, Martin Farrer and agencie on (#31AAE)
South Korean president tells Russian leader that situation risks becoming uncontrollableThe South Korean president, Moon Jae-in, has warned that the crisis on the Korean peninsula risks becoming “uncontrollable†as he sought Russian cooperation in a meeting with Vladimir Putin.