Outside Brexit Britain, the view looks rosy and borrowing is being pushed to new highs. What could go wrong? Almost everythingThere is a complacency in the air as we stumble into 2018. Global economic forecasts are coated with sugar. Stock markets keep heading skywards and borrowing is at an all-time high. Brexit may be a brick through the window of the UK’s economic outlook, but for the rest of the developed world, the view is decidedly rosy.Such is the exuberance among those with plenty of spare cash that there is a return of borrowing with the sole purpose of betting on stock market gains. To this end, investors are using any asset to hand – their house, their pension or their deposit savings – to get a boost from the alpha funds that promise stellar returns. Bitcoin is another feature of this relaxed attitude to risk. Who needs safety nets when there is no prospect of a fall? It’s not hard to see why the picture looks so rosy and why it is likely to conclude with an ugly denouement. Continue reading...

The value of some houses owned by non-residents is nearly 50% higher than those owned by residents in Toronto, analysis revealsForeign buyers are driving up the prices of homes in Canada’s two largest housing markets, according to research which will intensify the debate around overseas property ownership in the expensive cities of Vancouver and Toronto.

ONS figures show spend in third quarter of 2017 rose 1% on year before as impact of higher inflation hit living standardsSpending by UK households slowed to its lowest level in almost six years during 2017 as the impact of higher inflation hit living standards and forced people to prioritise their basic needs.The latest official figures show that consumers spent less on restaurants and hotels in the three months ending in September, but more on food, rent, fuel bills and transport.

The Green party co-leader Jonathan Bartley and others extol a universal basic income; academics including Orazio Attanasio defend economics and its models; the Adam Smith Institute’s Tim Worstall writes on the value of household labour; and William Sharp recalls the subtitle of Small is BeautifulIn decrying a universal basic income, Sonia Sodha has set up a straw man argument (Money for nothing is no panacea, 18 December). No serious proponent of UBI that I work with believes it is a silver bullet. Nor do we believe that it will suddenly fix the modern economy. It’s clear to all that the current economic system is broken. Inequality is rising, as are rates of depression, self-harm, isolation and loneliness, and our planet is being ruined by a system that values growth at all costs. We know that radical changes are also needed to our tax system, to employment rights, and to working practices. But UBI is part of changing the agenda. It turns on its head the way we view work and welfare, and it is one response to the important question we should all be asking: who is the economy for?Business as usual – whether that be the welfare state designed for a different age, or exploitative, endless work – should not be the only option. A basic income would provide everyone with basic security, but also choice. It would give them the freedom to explore life outside of work, taking the strain off both individual workers and our planet. It is a revolutionary idea that would invigorate communities and individual wellbeing.

Net borrowing at £8.7bn in November but chancellor warned improvement in public finances likely to be cut short in new yearPhilip Hammond has been handed an early Christmas present after government borrowing dipped in November, beating City expectations that the UK’s slowing economic growth would send the public finances deeper into the red.Figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show public sector net borrowing, excluding state-owned banks, fell to £8.7bn in November, down £200m on the same month last year.

The number of cars made in UK factories fell 2% in the first 11 months of the year, putting the industry on course for its first annual fall in production since 2009, when Britain was in the depths of the financial crisis

What caused the slowdown and what’s in store for 2018? Two former MPC members discuss the economic indicatorsProfessor of economics at Dartmouth College, New Hampshire, and member of the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee from June 2006 to May 2009Related: Brexit economy: a turbulent year ends on steadier groundRelated: How has the Brexit vote affected the economy? December verdict Continue reading...

Each month we look at key indicators to see what effect the Brexit process has on growth, prosperity and trade in the UKRelated: Brexit economy: a turbulent year ends on steadier ground Continue reading...

Households appear to defy cost of living squeeze and markets seem more confident now Brexit talks have moved on to tradeBritain’s economy is closing a turbulent year on steadier ground, as households defy the biggest squeeze on disposable income in living memory, a Guardian analysis of economic news over the past month shows.In a period in which Theresa May won a deal with Brussels to move the Brexit talks forward to focus on trade, the Guardian’s monthly tracker found pockets of strength in the economy – even as businesses express increasing concerns over the size of the challenge to come.Staying in the single market and customs unionRelated: How has the Brexit vote affected the economy? December verdict Continue reading...

Two young men have had the terrible ordeal of being wrongfully charged for one of the worst of crimes. But this is a failing of process. It must not be an excuse to fan the flame of misogynyThe Metropolitan police are reviewing 30 pending rape prosecutions in London after two cases collapsed because of a failure to disclose evidence that would have helped the defence in a timely manner. On Tuesday, the case against 25-year-old Isaac Itiary, charged with the rape of a child under 16, collapsed. A week ago, all charges against 22-year-old Liam Allan were dropped. He had been on bail for two years facing a dozen charges of rape and sexual assault. Both young men have endured the life-changing experience of being charged with a terrible crime that they did not commit, that carried the threat of a long prison sentence.Neither of these cases should ever have happened. In July, at just the time Mr Itiary was charged, a joint review by the inspectorates of the Crown Prosecution Service and the police issued the bluntest of warnings: both process and culture relating to disclosure were so severely flawed as to jeopardise the likelihood of a fair trial. In other words, a disaster was waiting to happen. Now it has. Continue reading...

Bank of England governor Mark Carney up before Treasury committee

Fund trims growth forecast as Christine Lagarde strongly defends pre-referendum prediction of slowdown from leave voteThe International Monetary Fund has strongly defended its gloomy forecasts for the UK after Brexit, saying pre-referendum warnings of slower growth were coming true.Christine Lagarde, the fund’s managing director, said the vote to leave the EU in June 2016 was already having an impact and Britain’s weaker growth this year was in contrast to accelerating activity in the rest of the world.Related: IMF welcomes Brexit progress but cautions timeframe is ambitious – business live Continue reading...

Snow and consumer spending squeeze affect number of shoppers on high street, while Toys R Us may enter administrationNearly 45,000 retailers are in financial distress this Christmas as a snowy weekend and the squeeze on consumer spending power hit sales after the Black Friday rush.While Toys R Us faces potential administration on Thursday if a deal cannot be struck with the pensions lifeboat, there has been a 22% increase in the number of retailers, nearly 8,000 more, facing “significant financial distress”, according to a survey by the insolvency advisory company Begbies Traynor. Continue reading...

Donald Trump has said his first major legislative victory would be a ‘big, beautiful Christmas present’ for Americans

Clergy members, emergency staff and police officers among those hardest hit by inflation outstripping wage risesMany of those working on Christmas Day, including members of the clergy and the emergency services, will be paid less than a decade ago, with little sign that the earnings squeeze will fade in the new year, according to analysis.Real wages for the most-worked jobs on 25 December, barring kitchen staff, have fallen since 2007 due to rising inflation and meagre increases in pay, a TUC study has found. Continue reading...

Areas in Midlands and north of England, where support for leaving EU was high, have most exposure to trade consequencesThe UK regions that voted to leave the EU are more economically exposed to the effects of Brexit than anywhere else in Europe, research suggests.A University of Birmingham study examined the degree to which EU regions were exposed to the possible negative trade-related consequences of Britain’s departure and found areas in the Midlands and north of England, many of which voted for Brexit, had the greatest exposure. Continue reading...

Sixty five academics support the call for a new Reformation, and 21 female economists and social policy researchers also have their say. Plus letters from Dr Pete Clarke and Nicholas MaxwellIn the 500th anniversary of the Reformation, which challenged a single dominant belief system, we agree it is time for the reformation of another all-embracing and powerful set of beliefs: that of mainstream economics (Larry Elliott: Economics needs a Reformation of its own, 18 December). Neoclassical theories currently dominate the university teaching of economics, as well as public debate, policy and decision making. Yet we believe they have assumed this level of influence not as the result of open debate, challenge and the scientific method, but as a belief system whose founding principles now pass unquestioned. Its proponents claim special authority to pronounce on all matters and its teaching has taken on the characteristics of indoctrination: students being asked to memorise and repeat rather than to criticise and evaluate.The world faces poverty, inequality, ecological crises and financial instability that mainstream economics, apparently incapable of self-correction, seems powerless to understand, let alone help address. We support the call made last week in the publication of “33 theses for an economics reformation” for radically greater pluralism, and believe this necessary if we are to reverse these problems. It must begin with reform of the way economics research is funded in universities, which under the present system perpetuates the monopoly of a single narrow perspective. Ending the unhealthy intellectual monopoly within economics is not just about making the discipline more effective and democratic, it is essential to raise our collective chances of surviving and thriving. Continue reading...

Exclusive: Michel Barnier’s stark declaration quashes hopes for a bespoke trade deal to include financial servicesBritain cannot have a special deal for the City of London, the European Union’s chief Brexit negotiator has told the Guardian, dealing a blow to Theresa May’s hopes of securing a bespoke trade agreement with the bloc.

All the day’s economic and financial news, as cryptocurrency bitcoin joins the world’s largest exchange

Source reveals that at meeting with ministers the PM argued for UK to keep up calls for bespoke, ambitious deal

Strong growth recorded in November continued in December, but is expected to slow in early 2018Britain’s manufacturers have ended 2017 on a high note, with output surging to meet the strongest order books in almost three decades.The latest snapshot of industry from the CBI found the strong growth recorded in November continued in December but is expected to abate in the early months of 2018. Continue reading...

Will Theresa May be able to convince her party of the necessity for a transition period, during which the UK obeys EU rules without having any say in them?

Property website says 35% of homes up for sale have cut sale price, with Brexit vote to blame for the biggest discounts in LondonPrice cutting by homeowners desperate to shift their property in a slowing market has reached the highest levels in six years, according to an analysis by website Zoopla.Just over 35% of the homes marketed on the site have marked down their price in the hope of achieving a sale, with the biggest discounts in the London property market.Related: Housebuilders issue Brexit plea as poll shows UK reliance on EU workers Continue reading...

Controls can include monetary policy, writes Mike Ellwood; Yugo Kovach recommends restricting migrant labour; and there’s always revolution, points out Gareth ReevesI am delighted that Larry Elliott (Think our governments can no longer control capitalism? You’ve been duped, 14 December) has discovered Professor Bill Mitchell’s book Reclaiming the State.Mitchell is a respected “heterodox” economist who specialises in modern monetary theory, and writes an almost daily blog in which he explains MMT and its political and economic implications. If Elliott were to fully learn the lessons of MMT from Mitchell’s book and/or blog, then perhaps he would not write (as he recently did) about governments of countries like the UK (which issues its own currency in a floating exchange rate system) having to “borrow” in order to run a fiscal deficit. The “borrowing” that does take place is a “voluntary” restriction placed upon the government’s freedom to spend, for reasons that are no longer valid (if they ever were), as Mitchell expertly explains, and could be dropped, if the government so willed. Continue reading...

Banking trade body urges Theresa May and Philip Hammond to put City at centre of EU talks or risk dealing a major blow to the economyBritain’s banks have written to Theresa May and Philip Hammond warning that a Canada-style free trade agreement with the EU post-Brexit is not ambitious enough and that alignment with EU rules on finance is crucial.The open letter from UK Finance, which represents major banks and other financial institutions, said the government must place the City at the centre of Brexit trade talks or risk dealing a major blow to the economy.Banks, insurance companies and other financial firms in the EEA – the EU along with Iceland, Liechtenstein and Norway – are able to do business in the UK with separate regulatory approval. The system is known as passporting and allows firms to trade freely across borders. It applies the other way round, so that UK firms can operate in other EEA countries.Related: It's Frankfurt … and Paris: Goldman Sachs names post-Brexit hubsJust left Frankfurt. Great meetings, great weather, really enjoyed it. Good, because I'll be spending a lot more time there. #Brexit Continue reading...

The employment rate might look good but the outlook is far from rosy for low-paid BritonsPiece by piece, Britain’s jobs-creating machine in the years of economic recovery since the financial crisis appears to be coming unstuck.Dating back to early 2012, the number of people in employment has been on an upward curve – to fanfare from the Conservatives, who readily quote the 3 million jobs created since they came to power in 2010. But Theresa May should be worried, after figures from the Office for National Statistics last week showed the jobs engine has now chugged into reverse. Continue reading...

Neoclassical economics has become an unquestioned belief system and treats those challenging the creed as dangerousIn October 1517, an unknown Augustinian monk by the name of Martin Luther changed the world when he grabbed a hammer and nailed his 95 theses to the door of the Castle Church in Wittenberg. The Reformation started there.The tale of how the 95 theses were posted is almost certainly false. Luther never mentioned the incident and the first account of it didn’t surface until after his death. But it makes a better story than Luther writing a letter (which is what probably happened), and that’s why the economist Steve Keen, dressed in a monk’s habit and wielding a blow up hammer, could be found outside the London School of Economics last week.

As some hard economic truths become clear, the many ideologically uncommitted Britons who chose to leave may start changing their mindsMy football team, AFC Wimbledon, may be languishing down in the third division, as it was once called, but the Conservative MP for Wimbledon, Stephen Hammond, showed himself to be in the Premier League last week.In that refreshing, surprising vote on Thursday, he and his fellow Tory rebels stood up to be counted in the cause of parliamentary democracy. By voting against Theresa May’s plan to prevent parliament from having the last say on whether the terms of any Brexit deal should be accepted, they joined the noble ranks of “mutineers” and “enemies of the people”. Continue reading...

Labour’s economic plans will alleviate the long-term damage being inflicted by austerity policiesWhile the Daily Mail, with Pavlovian regularity, persists in ringing the “Marxist” alarm bell, the Financial Times is a little more measured. “Labour has a fair wind” with business leaders, the paper argued this month, “with many terrified of a hard Brexit”. At the CBI’s annual conference in November, leaders of industry gave Jeremy Corbyn a distinctly warmer welcome than they gave Theresa May.That should come as no surprise, given the destabilising extremism of the Conservative Brexiters. Their echoing of hard-right American Republican ideology and advocacy of a hard Brexit is based on the belief that the UK’s economic interests, in particular the NHS and public services, would benefit from subjugation to American oligopolistic capital. Hence the calls for the UK to join the North American Free Trade Agreement. Yet, at the same time, polling shows that the British people are disillusioned with the privatisation of key sectors, and favour nationalisation. They seek protection from the impact of deregulated market forces on their lives and livelihoods and on their children’s prospects.From 1956 to 2008, Conservative governments had an average annual surplus of 0.3% of GDP, while Labour's was 1.1% Continue reading...

There’s been a big increase in tax revenue, which should lead to a smaller than expected deficit – but so far it’s coming from companies, not individuals

Former prime minister will take charge of £750m fund to improve transport links between China and its trading partnersDavid Cameron has taken a job leading a billion-dollar investment initiative agreed between the UK and China.

Study of over 6,000 households found an increase in people reporting high mortgage debt, repayment costs and rentsAlmost a decade of improvements in household finances has started to be unpicked in the year since the EU referendum, according to the Bank of England.Findings from a biannual study for Threadneedle Street of more than 6,000 UK households found an increase in people reporting high mortgage debt when considering their income, while there were also worrying increases in repayments and in costs for renters. Continue reading...

Since 2010, more than 478 libraries have closed in England, Wales and Scotland. It’s the old Tory con: talk up advancement, then attack the institutions that make it possibleIf they weren’t already here, we’d have to invent them: public spaces, crammed with books, computers and information points, where events and meetings regularly take place, and children in particular get an early taste of the world beyond their own immediate experience.Related: The UK no longer has a national public library system | Laura SwaffieldRelated: No one needs libraries any more? What rubbish | Rhiannon Lucy Cosslett Continue reading...

Official data suggests shoppers are defying inflation increase, weak wage growth and slump in sterling since Brexit voteBlack Friday discounts encouraged British consumers to increase their spending on the high street and online in November, despite the most protracted squeeze on household income in memory.Officials at the Office for National Statistics said the American-inspired promotional event had helped drive a 1.1% increase in the number of goods bought last month compared with October, with sales of electrical household appliances making the biggest contribution to growth. City economists had forecast growth of 0.4%. Continue reading...

All the day’s economic and financial news, as central bankers hold their final monetary policy meetings of 2017

In reality there has been a class war, in which the right has spent decades using the state to undermine workers. We can fight backBlue Planet 2 demonstrated the terrifyingly fragile state of nature’s ecosystem. One of the key messages from the BBC series was that a delicate balance exists in the oceans between predators and prey. If there are too many predators, the stocks of prey fall. The predators go hungry and their numbers dwindle, allowing the prey to recover. Balance is restored.Related: Workers' rights are under threat across the world | Keith EwingTo the victors have gone the spoils: higher profits; lower personal tax rates; a higher share of national incomeRelated: Is the growth in living standards worse now than in the Great Depression? Continue reading...

Official figures reveal drop in number of people in work and pay rises lagging behind inflationBritain’s long jobs boom appears to have come to an end after official figures showed the number of people in work fell by 56,000 in the three months ending in October.The Office for National Statistics said an upswing that began in 2012, and persisted for a year after the vote to leave the EU, had petered out.The International Labour Organisation (ILO) jobless rate is a measure of unemployment adopted in a number of countries to reflect the state of the labour market. It is expressed in percentage terms, as a proportion of working-age people who are out of work but want a job and are actively looking for one. Continue reading...

Business leaders call on government to rein in planned tax increases after figures show 32,000 fewer Scots in employmentThe Scottish government is facing renewed pressure from business leaders to temper its plans for income tax rises after the jobless total increased and inflation rates rose.

Economists warn that the UK labour market may have peaked, as the number of people in work falls for the second month running

Bank announces in Paris it ‘will no longer finance upstream oil and gas’ after 2019 in response to threat posed by climate changeThe World Bank will end its financial support for oil and gas extraction within the next two years in response to the growing threat posed by climate change.In a statement that delighted campaigners opposed to fossil fuels, the Bank used a conference in Paris to announce that it “will no longer finance upstream oil and gas” after 2019.Related: Insurance giant Axa dumps investments in tar sands pipelinesRelated: Banks should disclose lending to companies with carbon-related risks, says report Continue reading...

Dearer computer games, smaller than expected falls in airfares, plus rising food, transport and clothing costs spur rate to near six-year highThe government has admitted households are feeling the pain from rising inflation after the cost of living rose to a near six-year high of 3.1% in November.Amid fears that the intensifying pressure on living standards will hit high street spending in the runup to Christmas, the financial secretary to the Treasury, Mel Stride, said 2018 would bring better news.Inflation is when prices rise. Deflation is the opposite – price decreases over time – but inflation is far more common.Related: North Sea pipeline closure 'could have significant impact on consumers' Continue reading...

Food, fuel, airline fares and recreational costs have driven the cost of living up at its fastest rate since March 2012

Friday 22 December on course to be biggest ever shopping day for food and drink as families stock up for Christmas DayShoppers in the UK will spend a record £4.2bn on food and drink in the final week before Christmas, shrugging off higher prices caused by the fall in the value of the pound since the EU referendum.

Rand Corporation study finds that under even the softest Brexit scenario, Britain will be worse off than under ‘no-Brexit’A no-deal Brexit would take 4.7% out of UK economy over 10 years, costing the UK £105bn and each member of the population £1,585, research by a US thinktank has found.Staying in the single market and customs union Continue reading...

Manpower poll shows hiring staff is flatlining in London and depicts firms as the least confident for five years about taking on new workersBritain’s employers are the most pessimistic about hiring staff than at any time in five years, underscoring fears over the number of new jobs available as the country prepares to leave the EU.A poll of 2,102 employers across nine different industry sectors found a net balance of just 4% were planning to increase staff levels rather than make cuts in the final months of the year.Related: UK employment falls for first time since aftermath of Brexit voteProductivity is an economic measure of the efficiency of a workforce. It typically measures the level of output per hour of work, or per worker. Continue reading...

It is a sad day for the NHS and for King’s patients when someone of his calibre feels they have no alternative but to throw in the towel, writes Andrew McCallYour report on Lord Kerslake’s resignation as chair of King’s College Hospital, London (Head of top NHS trust quits over cash squeeze, 11 December) finishes with a statement from NHS Improvement saying “We will replace him with a highly experienced chair to take charge of the trust’s position”.This is an inaccuracy. Under the constitution of foundation trusts, it is for the trust to select and appoint their chair, who is an independent director. I assume that, as usual, King’s nominations committee will soon start the process of appointing a new chair. But I know that we will struggle to find one so skilled, so experienced, or so dedicated as Bob Kerslake. Continue reading...

Lord Kerslake is a big beast in the public sector. His resignation from the hospital trust he chaired ought not to be dismissed as a face-saving exercise. The Treasury is imposing a brutal decline on resources for healthcareBob Kerslake has been a big figure in public service for most of the past 20 years. He was a successful chief executive of Sheffield city council, before he was enticed to Whitehall where he became permanent secretary at the Department for Communities and Local Government, and for a time head of the civil service. In 2014 he left Whitehall to run King’s College hospital foundation trust in south London, and in 2015 he was made a member of the House of Lords. His public image is of a combative man who is not afraid to speak his mind and who is passionate about public service. It is little surprise that the opposition have sought his advice.On Sunday night, Lord Kerslake announced in these pages that he was resigning from King’s in protest at what he called – correctly – the failure of government to face up to the depth of underfunding in the health service. Such a high-profile resignation by a well-respected figure is profoundly embarrassing, and he correctly anticipated a counter-attack. On Monday morning it was widely reported that he was expecting to be asked to step down by NHS Improvement, the regulator created by the Conservatives to monitors trusts’ financial management, because King’s is spending way over its budget, and has been since before he took over. King’s is now a hospital in special measures, adding to the impression that Lord Kerslake jumped before he was pushed. Continue reading...

Report says uncertainty and breakdown of Northern Ireland’s assembly will increase disparity between north and southThe gap in fortunes between the economies of Northern Ireland and Ireland will increase in the next two years as Brexit looms, according to a new report published in Dublin.Consultancy EY predicts 144,000 new jobs will be created across the entire island of Ireland between 2017 and 2020. However, the vast majority, 138,500, will be in the republic – the population of which is more than twice the size of its neighbour – with just 5,800 jobs in Northern Ireland, said EY.Counties and customs Continue reading...

He has sold out the blue-collar voters who brought him to power, while pursuing policies to enrich his fellow plutocratsDonald Trump won the US presidency with the backing of working-class and socially conservative white voters on a populist platform of economic nationalism. Trump rejected the Republican party’s traditional pro-business, pro-trade agenda, and, like Bernie Sanders on the left, appealed to Americans who have been harmed by disruptive technologies and “globalist” policies promoting free trade and migration.But while Trump ran as a populist, he has governed as a plutocrat, most recently by endorsing the discredited supply-side theory of taxation that most Republicans still cling to. Trump also ran as someone who would “drain the swamp” in Washington DC and on Wall Street. Yet he has stacked his administration with billionaires (not just millionaires) and Goldman Sachs alumni, while letting the swamp of business lobbyists rise higher than ever. Continue reading...

Brexit gives us the chance to reshape Britain’s role on the global stage. We should champion the poverty-busting power of rules-based trade