Millions of Americans think they have been left behind in the recovery and the billionaire has managed to tap into this discontentThe experts said it could never happen. There was no way in which Donald Trump could win the Republican nomination for the US presidency. Could a billionaire who had never held office, was distrusted by the party hierarchy, lacked a political machine and seemed to take delight in upsetting large chunks of the electorate really survive the primaries and have a shot at the White House? Well, really.The smart money now says that Trump has no chance in a head-to-head presidential race with Hillary Clinton, who looks nailed-on as the candidate for the Democrats. Opinion polls suggest that Clinton would beat Trump by a margin of 10 percentage points were the election to be held now. Continue reading...

A succession of windfalls from privatisations, pensions and bank fines have created an illusion of prosperity in the chancellor’s Britain. It can’t lastGeorge Osborne has a fairy godmother who, with a wave of her wand, showers money over much of the population. It hardly seems possible in this age of austerity, but it happens all the time and soothes the anger of many who might otherwise protest at the closure of local amenities and cuts to welfare budgets.This godmother comes in several guises, but essentially always does the same thing: she steals from the future to pay for things today. Continue reading...

A succession of windfalls from privatisations, pensions and bank fines have created an illusion of prosperity in the chancellor’s Britain. It can’t lastGeorge Osborne has a fairy godmother who, with a wave of her wand, showers money over much of the population. It hardly seems possible in this age of austerity, but it happens all the time and soothes the anger of many who might otherwise protest at the closure of local amenities and cuts to welfare budgets.This godmother comes in several guises, but essentially always does the same thing: she steals from the future to pay for things today. Continue reading...

The US economy is running at a sluggish pace, so there may be pressure for the Bank of England to lower interest rates even further this weekThe last time the Bank of England cut interest rates was in March 2009 and the decision was, in the modern idiom, a bit of a no-brainer. Official figures released later that month showed unemployment rising above two million for the first time since 1997, and the economy was in freefall.It was the nadir of the global slump and Threadneedle Street’s monetary policy committee had no hesitation in reducing the cost of borrowing to 0.5%, comfortably lower than it had ever been in the history of the Bank, which stretches all the way back to 1694. Continue reading...

Obama has overseen a remarkable turnaround in the jobs market, but with layoffs reaching a seven-year high, many have subscribed to Trump’s narrative

Christine Lagarde issues warning in letter leaked three days before eurozone finance ministers discuss help for AthensHopes of an end to the impasse between Greece and its creditors have appeared to evaporate after asurprise intervention from the International Monetary Fund.

Regarding the results of Thursday’s elections (Jeremy Corbyn allays coup fears after mixed election night for Labour, theguardian.com, 6 May), the successful Norwich Labour party leadership hit the nail on the head with its analysis. Labour actually did amazingly well, considering the constant poisonous press briefings made by many out-of-touch rightwing Labour MPs against Jeremy Corbyn ever since he was overwhelmingly elected leader. We even had Michael Dugher at PMQs effectively inviting David Cameron to agree with him that Corbyn was an idiot.Then we had John Mann and friends doing their bit to denigrate Corbyn’s leadership in the last two weeks before the election. It is interesting that Labour did less well in Scotland and Wales, where Corbyn was reportedly asked to stay away. Continue reading...

EU austerity | Limited liability law | Leicester’s other achievements | Modal verbs | English royals | New DayLarry Elliott (Economics of Alice in Wonderland, 2 May) provides a test for Mr Cameron to do something to persuade people to support his EU stance: get Mrs Merkel and co to stop imposing more austerity on Greece – to show that the EU can equal mutual support – and we’ll vote to stay. Otherwise, what’s the point of the EU? The clock’s ticking, Dave.

Survey shows shoppers spend more on experiences such as holidays and eating out and less on productsThey call it the “experience economy”: a huge shift in consumer behaviour is said to be under way, from buying things to doing things.The demise of high street stalwarts BHS and Austin Reed, poor retail spending figures and a downturn in the number of people visiting high streets and shopping centres, are all being held up as evidence that Britons’ priorities are changing. Continue reading...

Jobs figures were lower than predicted by economists with the percentage of the American labor force out of work holding steady at 5%

Some of the spending would have happened anyway and the plan will not represent a technological revolutionIt’s a “further wave” of investment, says BT, conjuring visions of Britain surfing to a fast-speed broadband future while other nations splash in the shallows. Don’t believe the hype: £6bn is a large sum, but not quite as it seems.About a third probably covers newly arrived EE’s expansion of its 4G mobile network, which is spending that would have happened anyway. The Openreach broadband element – call it £4bn – equates to £1.33bn a year since this is a three-year programme. That’s an upgrade from a current rate of £1bn a year, but we’re not talking tsunamis.Related: BT to spend £6bn on superfast broadband and 4G rollout Continue reading...

Presumptive presidential nominee says he’s ‘most likely’ to pick a new Fed chair when Yellen’s time is up

61,582 people lost their jobs between 1 and 30 April – a worrying sign of a slowdown in the pace of the jobs market’s recoveryJob cuts are at their highest level since 2009 according to a new study from outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, up 35% in April against figures from March and 5% from the same time the year previous.Some 61,582 people lost their jobs between 1 April and 30 April, according to employer announcements of staff reductions polled by analysts. Continue reading...

The chancellor blames Brexit jitters and the global slump for Britain’s economic woes – but the truth lies closer to homeLast summer the UK economy was zipping along and the chancellor, fresh from an election victory, was boasting of the best GDP growth in the G7.Inside the Treasury, it was unthinkable that growth would evaporate within a year, and yet this week’s surveys of the construction, manufacturing and services industries, which cover just about all economic activity, show output flattening going into the second quarter.Related: Services sector slump fans fears of UK economic slowdown Continue reading...

If the US Federal Reserve feels beholden to financial markets, the risk of sharper rate hikes will increase“There are only two tragedies in life,” Oscar Wilde wrote. “One is not getting what one wants, and the other is getting it.” As the US Federal Reserve inches closer to achieving its targets for the domestic economy, it faces growing pressure to normalise monetary policy. But the domestic economy is no longer the Fed’s sole consideration in policymaking. On the contrary, America’s monetary authority has all but explicitly recognised a new mandate: promoting global financial stability.The US Congress created the Fed in 1913 as an independent agency removed from partisan politics, tasked with ensuring domestic price stability and maximising domestic employment. Its role has expanded over time, and the Fed, along with many of its developed country counterparts, has engaged in increasingly unconventional monetary policy – quantitative easing, credit easing, forward guidance, and so on – since the 2008 global financial crisis. Continue reading...

PMI/Markit survey shows business activity at lowest level since February 2013 as EU referendum and global slowdown fears take holdA sharp slowdown in Britain’s vast services sector, which covers everything from banking to hotels, has fanned fears that economic growth is stalling, hurt by a downturn in global trade and jitters ahead of June’s knife-edge EU referendum.A closely watched survey of businesses in the UK’s biggest sector showed activity slumped in April to its slowest pace for more than three years. That followed polls earlier in the week showing the smaller construction and manufacturing sectors had also lost momentum last month.

Analysis finds Scottish GDP has grown by 4% in cash terms since 2008, compared with 23% for Britain as a wholeThe Scottish economy is growing at a far slower rate than the UK as a whole, with the North Sea oil slump leading to a fall in GDP last year, the latest data shows.

Building firms hit by falling confidence ahead of June EU referendum

Firms blame decline on lack of new orders stemming from weaker outlook for UK economy as a wholeA boom in office building in London has failed to prevent Britain’s construction industry from reporting its worst month in almost three years in April.Related: Brexit jitters set to weigh on foreign demand for London office spaceRelated: UK manufacturing sector suffers worst month in three years Continue reading...

Firms blamed the decline on a lack of new orders that stemmed from the weaker outlook for the UK economy as a wholeA frenzy of office building in London failed to prevent Britain’s construction industry from reporting its worst month in almost three years in April.Firms blamed the decline in the sector’s fortunes on a lack of new orders that stemmed from the weaker outlook for the UK economy as a whole.Related: UK manufacturing sector suffers worst month in three years Continue reading...

The Middle East, north Africa, central Asia and south Asia due to suffer biggest economic hit from water scarcity as climate change takes hold, report findsWater shortages will deliver a “severe hit” to the economies of the Middle East, central Asia, and Africa by the middle of the century, taking double digits off their GDP, the World Bank warned on Tuesday.By 2050, growing demand for cities and for agriculture would put water in short supply in regions where it is now plentiful – and worsen shortages across a vast swath of Africa and Asia, spurring conflict and migration, the bank said. Continue reading...

Britain’s biggest bank hails ‘resilient performance’ amid challenging market conditions as dividend policy is questionedProfits at HSBC fell in the first three months of 2016 as a result of volatility on the global markets in January and February, raising questions about the dividend policy at Britain’s biggest bank.Statutory pre-tax profits in the three months to the end of March fell by 14% to $6.1bn (£4.2bn), which the bank described as “a resilient performance despite challenging market conditions”. If currency movements and other one-off items were excluded, profits fell by 18% to $5.4bn.Related: HSBC chairman says scandals show banks must raise standardsRelated: HSBC accused of censorship for refusing Hong Kong student leader's account Continue reading...

Britain’s biggest bank hails ‘resilient performance’ amid challenging market conditions as dividend policy is questionedProfits at HSBC fell in the first three months of 2016 as a result of volatility on the global markets in January and February, raising questions about the dividend policy at Britain’s biggest bank.Statutory pre-tax profits in the three months to the end of March fell by 14% to $6.1bn (£4.2bn), which the bank described as “a resilient performance despite challenging market conditions”. If currency movements and other one-off items were excluded, profits fell by 18% to $5.4bn.Related: HSBC chairman says scandals show banks must raise standardsRelated: HSBC accused of censorship for refusing Hong Kong student leader's account Continue reading...

George Osborne will no doubt blame bad economic news on the EU referendum but the crisis in British factories is chronic and part of a global trendFor the next couple of months – and probably longer – George Osborne has a ready-made excuse if the economic numbers look a bit grim: blame it on the uncertainty caused by the EU referendum.The weakest report on manufacturing from purchasing managers for three years? That would be the result of Brexit fears. A downgrade of the UK’s growth forecast for 2016 from the European commission? Investment plans are being mothballed until businesses see the way Britain has voted on 23 June. Continue reading...

Lack of demand for consumer goods hits output during April as employment in factories fallsBritain’s factories suffered their worst month in three years in April as falling export orders and a lack of domestic demand for consumer goods squeezed manufacturing output.Growth in factory output has been on the slide for a year, but last month the manufacturing sector contracted for the first time since March 2013. Economists believe the decline will drag on GDP growth this year.Related: Most business leaders will vote to stay in EU, polls find Continue reading...

Lack of demand for consumer goods hits output during April as employment in factories fallsBritain’s factories suffered their worst month in three years in April as falling export orders and a lack of domestic demand for consumer goods squeezed manufacturing output.Growth in factory output has been on the slide for a year, but last month the manufacturing sector contracted for the first time since March 2013. Economists believe the decline will drag on GDP growth this year.Related: Most business leaders will vote to stay in EU, polls find Continue reading...

Survey of chartered accountants says Brexit fears, budget fallout, slowdown in China and weak UK sales denting companies’ ability to plan aheadWorries about the EU referendum in June, rising labour costs and China’s slowdown have knocked UK business confidence to a four-year low, according to a report that will fan fears the economy is losing momentum.A poll of 1,000 chartered accountants by their professional body, the ICAEW, echoed other recent surveys pointing to fragile consumer and business confidence as the referendum approaches. The poll also noted a slowdown in domestic sales and nervousness about hiring new staff. Continue reading...

An Australian computer scientist claims to have created the digital currency – but doesn’t seem very keen to take the credit

The financial crisis exposed how public guarantees underpinned private profits in banking. Now the BHS saga reveals how the rewards for owning businesses of other sorts are also unmatched by payment of a proper price for failureThe penalty for running a bad business is supposed to be failure. A free market system relies on the incentive of reward earned through enterprise, but it must also contain risk. The theory holds that evolution is at work, as good business thrives by innovation and competition, while the weak fall away. Meanwhile, democratic governments provide social guarantees so that this natural selection does not inflict cruelty on the citizens who depend on the economy for their livelihoods. That is why the ruin of BHS is a story of political failure as well as a product of commercial mismanagement.The collapse of the famous high street chain, leaving 11,000 jobs in jeopardy and a staff pension fund with a £571m deficit, has been widely reported as a case study of corporate greed. There have been calls for Sir Philip Green, who owned the company for 15 years, to be stripped of his knighthood. Sir Philip, his wife and Dominic Chappell, who heads Retail Acquisitions – the consortium that later bought BHS – look set to be summoned by parliament’s business and work and pensions committees, as part of twin inquiries into the affairs of what is now a hollowed-out shell of a company in administrators’ hands. If these probes go ahead, they might shed some light on the mechanisms by which the value that there once was in BHS was apparently turned to cash and siphoned off. That is if Sir Philip and others deign to attend the committees. They might, like Mike Ashley – the founder of Sports Direct, who now offers himself as an unlikely saviour of the BHS workforce – defy a summons to appear. MPs want to speak to Mr Ashley about low pay and alleged worker exploitation. He dismisses them as “a joke”. Continue reading...

Voters across Europe have got the message from the way in which Greece’s opposition to austerity was crushedGreece is running out of money. The government in Athens is raiding the budgets of the health service and public utilities to pay salaries and pensions. Without fresh financial support it will struggle to make a debt payment due in July.No, this is not a piece from the summer of 2015 reprinted by mistake. Greece, after a spell out of the limelight, is back. Another summer of threats, brinkmanship and all-night summits looms. Continue reading...

Our balance of payments situation is so poor that a 10% weakening in sterling would be no bad thing – if there were not such a risk of things getting out of handEver since his first written evidence to the Treasury committee, the governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, has hinted that he understands the UK’s real deficit problem. This is not the budget deficit, of which chancellor Osborne has made such a fetish, but the balance of payments deficit.Indeed, that distinguished former permanent secretary to the Treasury and cabinet secretary, Lord Turnbull, recently pointed out that debt owed to citizens of this country is not a problem – and that by not borrowing more for infrastructure at such low rates, Osborne is actually impoverishing future generations. He is, said Turnbull, “playing a dirty game”. Continue reading...

Economists had expected stronger growth in the manufacturing sector after recent stimulus measures by the Beijing regimeChina’s manufacturing sector expanded less than expected in April, raising doubts about the sustainability of a recent pick-up in the world’s second-largest economy.

At a special live event Bridie Jabour and her panel discuss what would happen without superannuation, whether a banking inquiry is justified and just what Clive Palmer’s re-election pitch might sound likeIn this episode we have the best bits from the recent Quarter Time in Sydney. Hosted by Bridie Jabour, it includes a panel with Guardian Australia’s political editor, Lenore Taylor, the ABC’s Dominic Knight and economics correspondent for the Australian, Adam Creighton. The panel discusses the problems with the banking industry, Malcolm Turnbull’s electoral woes and then each member makes a pitch for something they would like to see made an election issue.• Lenore Taylor on politics: asylum and climate change are back in the news – and the response has been pathetic Continue reading...

Europe’s economy has posted its fastest growth in a year, as France and Spain beat expectations, but US data disappoints

Currency bloc beats forecasts but inflation slips back into negative and experts urge against reading too much into dataThe eurozone economy grew faster than expected in the first three months of 2016, but inflation in the single currency bloc has fallen back into negative territory, putting more pressure on the European Central Bank to keep deflation at bay.Official statistics showed GDP in the 19-nation eurozone rose 0.6% in the first quarter despite a backdrop of turmoil on global markets at the start of the year. It was the fastest growth for a year and twice the pace recorded in the closing quarter of 2015. GDP was up 1.6% on a year earlier.Lowest unemployment rate in euro area since Aug 2011, in EU since April 2009 #Eurostat https://t.co/nqLI850gmY pic.twitter.com/mMpQKE9NcV Continue reading...

Uncertainty over EU referendum and ongoing political and financial turmoil in eurozone ‘casting a cloud over economy’Worries about the EU referendum in June and over a resurgence of the eurozone crisis have knocked consumer confidence in the UK to its lowest level in more than a year, according to a report.Market research firm GfK said its consumer sentiment indicator for April was the weakest for 15 months as households became gloomier about the UK’s economic outlook. The index dropped to -3 from a March reading of 0, when GfK also claimed referendum jitters had hit consumer confidence. Continue reading...

Telling us ‘it could have been worse’ is not a very compelling legacyIt’s hardly surprising for an outgoing president to be preoccupied with his legacy, or to gripe about low approval ratings. It’s more surprising for a president to blame them on his lack of communication skills, especially when that president is Obama.Obama has been on a legacy-building press tour lately, most recently talking up his economic record in an interview with the New York Times. His main regret, reminiscent of the classic job interview cop-out “my biggest flaw is that I’m just too hard of a worker!” is that he failed to tell voters what a great job he did in managing the recovery: “If we had been able to more effectively communicate all the steps we had taken to the swing voter, then we might have maintained a majority in the House or the Senate”.Related: US economy grows at slowest pace in two years as Obama defends legacy Continue reading...

Prem Sikka (Opinion, 26 April) is right that BHS is a victim, but not of shareholder greed – rather director greed and flawed legislation. In the early 1980s most corporate pension funds had sizeable surpluses. As an accountant at the time, I argued that pension funds should be ringfenced, but I lost the argument on the grounds that companies had a liability to pay their defined pensions. So companies took “holidays” and in some cases raided the pension pot, and we all know what happened.But it is getting worse; corporate greed is becoming out of control. For example, BP has awarded its CEO a huge amount despite incurring huge losses. Then to get shareholders off the scent it maintained the dividend (this strategy didn’t work), but had to borrow more money to pay it. Continue reading...

Shareholder revolts gather pace

President in interview admits several of his own missteps but says a mixture of tax and regulation cuts, a balanced budget and economic growth defies logicBarack Obama has accused the Republican presidential candidates of defying logic and peddling “fantasy” in telling voters they can cut taxes and government regulations, balance the budget and produce economic growth.“If you look at the platforms, the economic platforms of the current Republican candidates for president, they don’t simply defy logic and any known economic theories, they are fantasy,” Obama said, in an extensive and at times surprisingly frank reflection on his economic legacy in an interview with the New York Times’s Andrew Ross Sorkin.I can probably tick off three or four common-sense things we could have done where we’d be growing a percentage or two faster each year ... We could have brought down the unemployment rate lower, faster. We could have been lifting wages even faster than we did. And those things keep me up at night sometimes.If we can’t puncture some of the mythology around austerity, politics or tax cuts or the mythology that’s been built up around the Reagan revolution, where somehow people genuinely think that he slashed government and slashed the deficit and that the recovery was because of all these massive tax cuts, as opposed to a shift in interest-rate policy – if we can’t describe that effectively, then we’re doomed to keep on making more and more mistakes.The fact of the matter is, is that our failure in 2012, 2013, 2014, to initiate a massive infrastructure project – it was the perfect time to do it; low interest rates, construction industry is still on its heels, massive need – the fact that we failed to do that, for example, cost us time ... It meant that there were folks who we could have helped and put back to work and entire communities that could have prospered that ended up taking a lot longer to recovery. Continue reading...

The global economy is running out of steam and the conventional weapons are increasingly ineffectiveIt would be easy to dismiss the slowdown in the US economy to near-stall speed as a piece of rogue data resulting from the inability of number crunchers at the Department of Commerce in Washington to take account of the fact that large parts of the country are blanketed by snow during the winter.Related: US economy grinds to near standstill as business investment slumps - live updatesRelated: US interest rates: Merle Hazard tries to cheer up Fed watchers Continue reading...

Bank of England governor warns economy is slowing ahead of 23 June, with referendum itself threatening UK growthThe Bank of England governor has said Britain’s economy appears to be losing steam before the EU referendum, with the looming vote posing the biggest risk to UK growth.Mark Carney, who has previously warned that Britain’s economy could struggle to grow after a decision to quit the European Union, said during a trip to Stockport that the referendum itself posed a significant risk to the economy. Continue reading...

Economists for Brexit report says output would be higher, the City would thrive, trade deficit smaller and unemployment lowerThe campaign for Britain to leave the EU has hit back at studies claiming an exit would be bad for growth and living standards with a report from eight economists that argues the UK would thrive as an independent country.The Economists for Brexit report says output would be higher, the City of London would thrive, unemployment would fall and the trade deficit would narrow in the event of a no vote in the in/out referendum on 23 June. Continue reading...

Universities came under attack for failing to predict the 2008 financial crisis, and students demanded change. Have economics departments risen to the challenge?In the years following the global financial crisis, the academic study and teaching of economics has come in for a bashing. In fact, it has faced the kind of fundamental criticism rarely directed towards entire disciplines.The apparent failure of economists to predict, let alone prevent, the 2008 crash has led to accusations that conventional economic teaching cannot adequately explain the complex dynamics and risks of modern economies.

Despite weak inflation and household spending, central bank decides against fresh measures to stimulate economy, pushing the yen upThe Bank of Japan has surprised investors by deciding against any fresh market stimulus despite shocking data that underlined the huge problems facing the country’s economy.Related: Abenomics is in poor health after Nikkei slide – and it may be terminalRelated: The bad smell hovering over the global economy Continue reading...

We oppose each other on many things, but we both know the poorest in our country would be badly hit by a BrexitA former trade union leader and a Conservative prime minister have never before put pen to paper together. We do so today in very special circumstances. With the prospects for working people all across Britain at stake on 23 June, it is right that the rules of conventional politics be temporarily set aside. There are, of course, many things on which the two of us disagree. But we are united in our conviction that Britain, and Britain’s workers, will be better off in a reformed Europe than out on our own.While staying in Europe offers workers in the UK the best prospects of rising prosperity, leaving poses what we call a triple threat: to working people’s jobs, to their wages and to the prices we all pay in the shops. Let us take each in turn.Related: Brexit could cost £100bn and nearly 1m jobs, CBI warnsRelated: George Osborne: Brexit would leave UK ‘permanently poorer’ Continue reading...