Lobby group’s survey for three months to April found strongest performance since last July, but outlook remains challengingBritain’s manufacturers managed to nudge up their production in the past three months and they are optimistic that domestic and overseas demand will improve, according to an industry survey.The business lobby group CBI said its quarterly survey of factory bosses found that more reported a rise in output than a fall in the three months to April, marking the strongest performance since last July for the sector. But while the 472 manufacturers surveyed were upbeat about future demand, the past three months had been tough, with export orders falling again. Continue reading...

Barack Obama gave TTIP the hard sell, but leaving the EU would only make the controversial trade deal more likely – and possibly worseBarack Obama’s key message to Europe’s leaders last week was “let’s speed up TTIP”. The US-EU trade deal, formally called the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, has been mired in controversy on both sides of the Atlantic. The “free trade” agenda has become poison in the US primaries, forcing even pro-trade Hillary Clinton to re-examine TTIP.The next round of talks begin on Monday in New York and Obama is worried – unless serious progress is made in coming months, his trade legacy may be doomed. The problem for the US president is selling TTIP at the same time as trying to warn against the dangers of Brexit. This is a tough ask because TTIP has been a godsend for Brexit campaigners, who argue that the deal is a major reason to cut loose from Brussels.If being in the EU has brought us TTIP, it has also brought us the means to stop itRelated: What is TTIP and why should we be angry about it? Continue reading...

In the past, wealth came with responsibility. Today’s rich avoid taxes, military service, and charitable giving. No wonder we’re seeing a populist backlashThe author F Scott Fitzgerald once wrote that the “rich are different than you and me”.Fitzgerald’s observation rings especially true today. The growing divide between the wealthy and everyone else is one of the pre-eminent issues of the 2016 presidential election. A tidal wave of public anger over income inequality and the decline of the middle class has made the rich a popular target on the campaign trail. The best example is the remarkable success of Bernie Sanders, who has tapped into the populist spirit of the electorate by calling for a “political revolution” against the “billionaire class”. Continue reading...

Without it the future is bleak, but despite a bewildering array of theories for why this key economic driver has dropped there is no clear answerOur economic future isn’t what it used to be. In March the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) revised down its growth estimates for each of the next five years. The chancellor was quick to blame a weakening world economy but the true driver lies closer to home. The problem isn’t a loud global economic crash but something much quieter: engine trouble. Productivity growth, the long-term motor of rising living standards, is slowing. The fact that this appears to be happening across the globe offers scant consolation.What’s worse is that no one is entirely sure what is causing the problem or how to fix it. And it is coming at about the worst time imaginable: global demographics are changing, with the supply of new workers set to slow and the older share of the population rising. The future is of course inherently unknowable, but the reasons for longer-term pessimism on economic growth are starting to stack up.Productivity growth is more than just a financial concept, it’s a balm that can sooth class conflictsRelated: UK's productivity plan is ‘vague collection of existing policies’ Continue reading...

Though heavy with egotistical bluster, the former Greek finance minister has valid points to make in this critique of the EU and global meltdownIt is easy to forget that Yanis Varoufakis spent two years as economic adviser and speechwriter to George Papandreou, the dismal socialist politician who inherited a party from his father and then, as prime minister, took Greece down the road towards its current crippled status. For the self-adoring, shaven-headed economist is far better known for his own five months of failure as finance minister, which alienated friends and foes alike yet catapulted him into heroic status on the anti-austerity left.There are, sadly, all too few nuggets about his explosive time in office strewn around the pages of this book. Instead, “the most interesting man in the world” – according to one fawning quote on the back – has delivered a rather dull volume. It is meant to be a dazzling takedown of Europe’s fiscal crisis and its flawed monetary system by a brilliant rebel economist; instead, we get turgid analysis that would have benefited from tighter editing.Varoufakis sees the euro as the gold standard reborn, designed to unify nations but driving them apartRelated: Yanis Varoufakis: ‘If I’m convicted of high treason, it would be interesting’ Continue reading...

I found it surprising that in his article on “neoliberalism” (The zombie doctrine, Review, 16 April), George Monbiot failed to mention what lies behind neoliberalism when it is not a disguised form of egoism: the Lockean theory of property, according to which property is acquired by one’s “mixing one’s labour” with the world. That is, of course, a somewhat peculiar idea, but even if we accept it neoliberals have to allow that current property is justly owned only if it has been justly transferred over time. You don’t need a PhD in history to realise that it hasn’t been, and that all of us are in possession of stolen goods. So what should we do, according to neoliberals? One possibility might be to start again, and assume everything is unowned. If we all respected one another’s rights, that would almost certainly result in a significantly more egalitarian distribution of property than we have now. Or we might give everyone an equal package, and start again from there. Either way, for neoliberals to claim that their view supports the current distribution of property and power is almost as bonkers as the Lockean theory itself.

Economists forecast first-quarter growth of 0.4%, down from 0.6% in the final quarter of last yearThe pressures on the UK economy from EU referendum jitters and a downturn in global trade will be revealed this week with the publication on Wednesday of official UK growth figures.

The Queen exemplifies a trend that will have a profound economic effect in the future, and needs to be addressed nowThe day after the Queen celebrated her 90th birthday, the Obamas came for lunch. Prince Philip, almost five years older than his wife, got behind the wheel of a Range Rover to drive the president and his wife Michelle to the door of Windsor Castle.What has this got to do with economics? On the face of it, not much. For many, the news coverage to mark the start of Her Majesty’s 10th decade was a blessed relief from rising unemployment and the partial nationalisation of the steel industry. Newspapers pushed the debate about the EU referendum on to inside pages in favour of pictures of the Queen as she is now and how she was way back when. Continue reading...

If the MPC’s Ian McCafferty were to indulge in the economics of walking about, he might observe that workers are in no position to provoke pay inflationSo it was an apology of sorts, but with a sting in the tail: Bank of England policymakers don’t like to say sorry. It was in this vein that Ian McCafferty – a former chief economist for the CBI, who joined the Bank’s nine-strong monetary policy committee (MPC) in the autumn of 2012 – said he had twice made the mistake of calling for higher interest rates.In each case, his reasoning was that wages were about to take off and would push up prices. The first time was in August 2014, when he was joined by fellow MPC member Martin Weale. Then he did it on his own, between August last year and January, before finally abandoning his campaign. Continue reading...

Theresa May, Michael Gove and Jeremy Hunt among ministers whose areas escape brunt of austerity measures, analysis findsThe three councils that have suffered the least from cuts in George Osborne’s controversial budget are represented by Tory cabinet ministers, a new analysis shows.Wokingham, Surrey, and Windsor and Maidenhead have all seen the lowest cuts to their budgets despite being the three least deprived areas in the country. The areas cover the constituencies of five cabinet ministers: Theresa May, Jeremy Hunt, Chris Grayling, Philip Hammond and Michael Gove. The areas also received £33.5m in the transitional grant announced earlier in the year.Related: Cameron ‘buying off’ Tory MPs threatening to rebel over council cutsIt is disgraceful that the most deprived areas are bearing the brunt of the Tory government’s cuts to local services Continue reading...

Incomes may have risen, but we’re not splashing cash on the high street – and it’s not just because of BrexitShopping is the national pastime. High streets, malls and retail parks have long been places people went for a day out, rather than on a mission to buy a particular item, and their spending helped lift the country out of recession. But a big drop in footfall – the number of people visiting high street and retail centres – over the past year has exposed fresh cracks in the high street, leaving retail chiefs wondering where all their customers have gone.Analysts are reporting declines in the number of shopper visits to high streets and shopping centres around the country of as much as 10% in some cities over the past year. Worries about the economic outlook, coupled with the rise of internet shopping, jitters about the EU referendum and more spending on eating out and leisure leave little cash left over for splurging in the shops. Continue reading...

Goldenport delists from LSE and agrees to fleet sell-off as it faces debts of over £100m, underlining severe headwinds faced by shipping industryGoldenport, one of the last shipping companies left on the London Stock Exchange, has delisted from the market and sold off six of its remaining eight vessels for $1 (69p) each.The giveaway reflects the most dismal shipping conditions in decades, caused by economic slowdown in China combined with an oversupply of vessels due to a building spree during a previous boom. Continue reading...

The remain campaign has played two big cards this week. Britain’s debate about Europe is now much more serious than beforeFew things matter more in modern political campaigns than standing. A public figure or a party with standing gets a hearing, and thus potentially gets the public’s vote. One without standing gets neither a hearing nor a vote. If your political opponent possesses standing, by contrast, the other side’s most urgent task is to undermine it.That, in essence, is what the Leave campaign is constantly trying to do to those who make the argument for Britain to remain in the European Union. By and large, the Remain campaign has more institutional and individual standing than Leave, as it proved so powerfully on Friday when Barack Obama joined the argument. That’s why Leavers try to pull their opponents down, increasingly dismissing Remainers as hypocrites, scare merchants, peddlers of special interests or out of touch, while the substance of what they say is all too often waved away. True, Remainers are not always averse to similar tactics themselves at times, but the tendency to kick the player not the ball is more routinised on the Leave side. There has been far too much of this approach this week. Continue reading...

Eurogroup meeting ends with a proposal for Greece to agree to contingency measures that could unlock further chunks of bailout moneyGreece has come a step closer to unlocking more international support for its debt-ravaged economy after talks with its eurozone neighbours.A meeting of finance ministers from the single currency bloc ended with a proposal for Athens to agree to money-saving contingency measures. These could be enacted if the reforms already agreed prove to be insufficient for Greece to meet agreed budget surplus targets. Continue reading...

But the MPC member says the Bank would have to be cautious about undermining the bank funding model if savers start hoarding cashA top Bank of England policymaker has floated the possibility of interest rates being cut below zero, meaning companies would pay to deposit their money with banks.Jan Vlieghe, a member of the BoE’s nine-strong monetary policy committee, did not rule out the idea of following other central banks in taking interest rates negative but said the Bank would “have to think very carefully” about whether the positive effects would outweigh the downsides.Related: The problem with negative interest rates Continue reading...

Kicking the can down the road with an ‘extend and pretend’ approach to high debt simply makes matters worse. And it seldom works in the long runOnce again, Greece is at an inflection point. With its cash balances severely stressed, it seems unlikely to be able to meet the cascading debt payments falling due over the next few months. So yet another round of contentious and protracted discussions with its creditors is underway – one that may well produce yet another short-term solution. Yet kicking the can down the road is hardly the negotiators’ only option. Indeed, it is the wrong approach.

Women in informal work around the world are setting up unions and networks to create more security. NGO Wiego worked with Getty Images and the Hewlett Foundation to capture them

Katharine Round’s documentary, inspired by The Spirit Level, is a short, sharp shock about the failings of free-market economicsThere is a certain type of pundit who will elaborately explain that he believes in equality of opportunity, not equality of outcome – but is in reality deeply uninterested in both. It is perfectly natural for the self-made businessmen and bootstrap entrepreneurs to feel that their grinding hard work entitles them to hard-won privileges, like unequal opportunities for their children.Related: ‘Why aren’t we earning enough to live?’ – how The Divide lays bare global inequality Continue reading...

Crisis returns to Greece as unemployment reaches 30% and debt repayment deadlines loomThe Hilton hotel in Athens makes the perfect backdrop for high-intensity talks. Its ambience is subdued, its corridors hushed, its meeting rooms an oasis of tranquility.When Greece, in one of its many stand-offs with the international creditors keeping it afloat, finally won the right to conduct negotiations outside the confines of government offices, it seemed only natural that they should be held at the hotel. Continue reading...

Former Labour PM enters debate, attacks negative tone of remain campaign and says UK should be leading Europe not leaving itGordon Brown has waded into the European Union referendum debate, calling on the remain camp to make a more positive case for staying in.Implicitly criticising the negative tone of those campaigning to keep Britain in the EU, the former Labour prime minister and MP said he wanted to make a “positive, principled, patriotic case” for a continuation of Britain’s 43-year-old links with the bloc.

Bank holds eurozone interest rates at zero as chief goes on attack after complaints about impact of policies on GermanyThe European Central Bank president has launched a robust defence of the institution’s independence after criticism from Germany that rock-bottom euro interest rates are hurting savers and fuelling rightwing nationalism.Mario Draghi used his latest press conference on Thursday to counter an attack from Germany’s finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, who had said record low rates were causing “extraordinary problems” for German banks and pensioners and risked fuelling the rise of Eurosceptics in Germany. Continue reading...

Simon Jenkins, Polly Toynbee and Larry Elliott join Tom Clark to discuss the economic consequences of Britain leaving the European Union. Plus Suzanne Goldenberg in New York takes stock of the US presidential raceGeorge Osborne launched a 200-page projection of what Britain’s economy would look like outside of the European Union this week and his analysis was damning: anyone who thinks that leaving the EU would be beneficial is “economically illiterate”.But how robust are his figures? And can the pros and cons of Brexit really be boiled down to an average household loss of £4300 by 2030? Continue reading...

The slowing economy will mean fewer tax receipts but more speculation on whether spending cuts or tax rises are needed to reach a 2020 budget surplusEarlier this week the Treasury made some confident projections about what the economy would look like in 2030 in the event of a vote to leave the EU in June’s referendum. The hazards of forecasting even one month ahead have now been illustrated.At the time of the budget, the number crunchers at the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) said they expected the UK to have to borrow £72.2bn to balance the books in 2015-16. The actual deficit turned out to be £74bn.Related: UK misses borrowing target by £1.8bn Continue reading...

Catalyst housing association has a bigger net surplus than Greggs or Foxtons, so why are staff facing job losses and unmanageable workloads?On Thursday 21 April, neighbourhood managers at Catalyst Housing start a work to rule industrial action. They say their current workloads are unmanageable, while management plan to halve the number of staff doing the job. Catalyst refuses to recognise the union, and normal negotiations have not taken place.Last week’s Guardian survey of housing workers showing that 40% of housing professionals say their workloads are unmanageable following cuts struck a chord with Unite members across the housing sector. Cuts are having a serious impact on the wellbeing of staff and tenants and are damaging important services.Related: Housing staff face 'unmanageable' workloads - poll Continue reading...

The economist warned against the potentially disastrous weaknesses of our global financial system. It’s not too late to pay him heed now

Gerge Osborne misses forecast as cash-strapped councils dip into reserves and raise debt to fund spending shortfallBritain borrowed more than expected in the last financial year as local councils sought to fill the gap created by deep budget cuts by dipping into reserves and increasing their debts.Local authorities borrowed £6bn, more than £4bn higher than the previous 12 months, offsetting bumper tax receipts and a clampdown on central government spending.Related: Borrowing likely to be higher than last financial year, ONS figures show Continue reading...

Official figures show retail sales volumes down 1.3% in March, fanning fears that UK economy has lost momentumBritain’s retailers have been hit by a sharp drop in sales as shoppers cut back on food and clothes in the latest sign households are nervous about the economic outlook.The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said retail sales volumes decreased 1.3% last month, a much sharper drop than the 0.1% dip forecast by economists in a Reuters poll. Sales were up 2.7% on the year, well below forecasts for 4.4% growth.Retail sales increase 2.7% in Mar 16 compared with Mar 15, but down 1.3% on Feb 16 https://t.co/3a048CPDVG Continue reading...

While both pro- and anti-EU campaigns exaggerate their case, the facts suggest saying no to Brexit would be the better option … and the EUIn this, the 400th year since William Shakespeare’s death, the UK faces an existential question: to be or not to be “European”. When Britons vote in June on whether to remain in the European Union, making the right choice will require them to cut through the hyperbole on both sides of the debate and consider carefully what so-called “Brexit” would really mean for their country.The main issues that will shape voters’ decision relate to trade relations, regulation, and the budget; foreign policy and security; and domestic policies, such as welfare and immigration. Then there are questions about the substantive and emotional benefits and baggage that attend EU membership, with all of its rules, regulations, and bureaucrats. The choice is stark, but the questions at issue are not all black and white.Related: A British bridge to a divided Europe Continue reading...

Lee Kuan Yew’s vice-like grip on power helped create a byword for cleanliness, efficiency and safety. What lies beneath this ‘Disneyland with the death penalty’?

Aditya Chakrabortty is playing fast and loose with the lives of millions of students and potential students (What the great degree rip-off means for graduates: low pay and high debt, 19 April). His major animus is turned against David Willetts, but as a former Labour higher education minister and now university vice-chancellor, I equally take strong issue with his argument: in brief, that there is a grand conspiracy between the government and vice-chancellors to mis-sell students higher education courses.Firstly, we need to deal with this misnomer of graduate debt. You only repay if you are in work and earning over £21,000 a year, and if you have not repaid after 30 years the debt is written off. If you were to advertise those terms on the high street, people would rush to sign up. With this financial package, recruitment to university has risen across the board, and fastest among students from the most disadvantaged backgrounds. Continue reading...

Ian McCafferty says he has stopped calling for interest rate rise after being surprised by weak growth in payA Bank of England policymaker has admitted he got it wrong when predicting a significant pickup in wages, prompting him to abandon his call for a rise in interest rates.Ian McCafferty, who sits on the Bank’s rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee, started voting for rate hikes in August 2015. He was the only member of the nine-strong committee to do so. Continue reading...

Work and pensions secretary says figure of 1.7 million unemployed is signal that EU referendum uncertainty is hitting jobsThe threat of a potential vote to leave the EU in June could be partly to blame for the first rise in unemployment in seven months, the work and pensions secretary has warned.Stephen Crabb said the latest labour report, which showed the unemployment total rose by 21,000 in the three months to February to 1.7 million, was a signal that the looming EU referendum vote was hitting the jobs market.Related: Job market catches up with the real UK economyRelated: Brexit would damage startup businesses, say entrepreneurs Continue reading...

A survey of 1,300 local and expat workers found a wage gap that ranges from 400-900% and causes significant resentment among local workersImagine finding out that your colleagues earn five times more than you. Not only that, but they get all sorts of benefits you’re not eligible for.They take a month of leave; you get 12 days. Your employer pays for their accommodation, health insurance and even their children’s school fees; you don’t get any of that.Related: Secret aid worker: Why do expats earn more than the rest of us? Continue reading...

‘We are reaching the limits of monetary policy,’ Reserve Bank governor says, urging governments to do moreThe Reserve Bank governor, Glenn Stevens, has warned that the inability of governments and central banks to lift global growth prospects is the “biggest vulnerability” facing the world’s financial system today.He says global growth must be Australia’s focus but the country also needs to realise that central banks are running out of firepower and government policies must start carrying more of the burden.Related: IMF has to act, not just talk, to jumpstart global economic growthRelated: Interest rate cuts: talk is cheap, Glenn Stevens may soon have to act | Greg Jericho Continue reading...

Institute for Fiscal Studies warns about accumulation of wealth by top 1% and says HMRC proposals to stop collecting data would create misleading pictureProposals by the UK government to stop collecting information showing how the wealthy pass on their assets from one generation to another have been condemned by the Institute for Fiscal Studies, a leading tax and spending thinktank.The IFS said Britain was in danger of allowing a misleading picture to emerge of its richest families, the top 1% whose wealth is at least £1.4m including the value of their home, that underestimates their wealth. Continue reading...

The Bank of England governor tells the Lords that ‘extended uncertainty’ and an economic slowdown could follow a vote to leave the EU

Shares, gold and oil rally, but market turbulence has hurt Goldman; Bank governor discusses Brexit, interest rates

The 1970s study which predicted civilisation would collapse some time this century was wrong on resources, but right on pollutionForty-four years ago, the size of the global economy was £20tn in today’s prices. In 2014 it was £55.18tn. It’s certainly been a rocky road at times, but the trend of economic growth has been robust. Only four years over this period have shown a contraction of economic output.Consequently, one should feel foolish for suggesting that there are not only limits to growth, but that such limits are already affecting the global economy. That’s one evaluation of the book Limits to Growth, which was published in 1972 and contained the central, controversial conclusion that the seemingly never-ending increase in population, industrial output, food production, and resource use would rapidly unravel at some point around the middle of the 21st century. Continue reading...

Created in 1959 to lure foreign investors with tax breaks, the Shannon Free Zone proved revolutionary across the world. But in today’s world of looser trade and tax havens, Ireland’s innovators face an uphill battle to stay relevant

£4,300 lost to each household and £36bn black hole in tax receipts – but how did the Treasury work out its claims?The headline figure that George Osborne will want voters to take away from the Treasury’s Brexit analysis, published on Monday, is £4,300 – the long-term loss to the economy per household from a vote to leave the EU, it claims.

No breakthrough at gathering of 34 nations as Chinese state news agency says it is ‘lame and lazy’ to blame crisis on ChinaThe world’s largest steel-producing nations failed to make a breakthrough on the oversupply problem that has thrown the industry into crisis, at a meeting in Brussels.Ministers from 34 countries, representing 93% of global steel production, attended Monday’s talks, on the day the Chinese state news agency said it was “lame and lazy” to blame China for the problem.

Iran wants OPEC members to keep talking, despite Sunday’s failed talks, but won’t impose new sanctions on itself

A negotiated bilateral trade agreement like Canada’s would leave British households £4,300 worse off a year, it saysThe Treasury has published its analysis of what it thinks would happen to the UK economy in the event of a vote to leave the EU in June’s referendum.Here are the key points: Continue reading...

Treasury analysis of Brexit implications includes claims about impact on growth and households, but do they stack up?The Treasury has published an analysis (pdf) of the implications of Britain leaving the EU and concluded that the economy would be 6% smaller by 2030, costing each household £4,300. But how did the chancellor, George Osborne, come to this conclusion and do the numbers stack up?Related: Would Brexit really force up your mortgage rate? Continue reading...

Andrea Leadsom says government should provide both sides of story if it wants people to have truly free voteA Conservative minister has accused the Treasury of publishing a deeply “unfair and biased” analysis of the impact of Britain leaving the EU, arguing that the government ought to provide both sides of the story if it wants British voters to have a truly free vote.Andrea Leadsom, the energy minister, told the Guardian that remain supporters were talking down the economy in an unpatriotic way. Continue reading...

In none of the economies attempting the unorthodox experiment of negative interest rates has there been a return to growth and full employmentI wrote at the beginning of January that economic conditions this year were set to be as weak as in 2015, which was the worst year since the global financial crisis erupted in 2008. And, as has happened repeatedly over the last decade, a few months into the year, others’ more optimistic forecasts are being revised downward.The underlying problem – which has plagued the global economy since the crisis, but has worsened slightly – is lack of global aggregate demand. Now, in response, the European Central Bank (ECB) has stepped up its stimulus, joining the Bank of Japan and a couple of other central banks in showing that the “zero lower bound” – the inability of interest rates to become negative – is a boundary only in the imagination of conventional economists.Related: Negative interest rates: what you need to knowRelated: ECB launches bold measures including negative interest rate to boost eurozoneRelated: Bank of Japan launches negative interest rates Continue reading...

Fund’s steering committee calls for more forceful stimulus and warns monetary policy alone is not enoughThe International Monetary Fund’s steering committee has urged member countries to boost “growth-friendly” spending to help deal with slowing global growth.The IMF managing director, Christine Lagarde, said that calmer markets since February had reduced the stress level at the IMF and World Bank spring meetings, but the outlook was still fraught with downside risks from weak demand, a potential UK exit from the European Union and low oil and commodity prices.Related: The bad smell hovering over the global economy Continue reading...

Attempts at economic stimulus have left a bad smell. Central banks are starting to think the unthinkable – helicopter moneyAll is calm. All is still. Share prices are going up. Oil prices are rising. China has stabilised. The eurozone is over the worst. After a panicky start to 2016, investors have decided that things aren’t so bad after all.Put your ear to the ground though, and it is possible to hear the blades whirring. Far away, preparations are being made for helicopter drops of money onto the global economy. With due honour to one of Humphrey Bogart’s many great lines from Casablanca: “Maybe not today, maybe not tomorrow but soon.”Related: Helicopter money is closer than you think Continue reading...