Business secretary attempts to calm nerves as markets prepare for further steep falls on Monday morningThe business secretary, Sajid Javid, has told business leaders there is no need to panic after Britain’s vote to leave the EU, as investors braced for another day of heavy selling when markets reopen on Monday.Javid will hold an emergency roundtable with business representatives on Tuesday to discuss the referendum result and its implications. Continue reading...
The EU has failed to protect its population from a global economic model that many believe is not working for themThe age of globalisation began on the day the Berlin Wall came down. From that moment in 1989, the trends evident in the late 1970s and throughout the 1980s accelerated: the free movement of capital, people and goods; trickle-down economics; a much diminished role for nation states; and a belief that market forces, now unleashed, were unstoppable.There has been push back against globalisation over the years. The violent protests seen in Seattle during the World Trade Organisation meeting in December 1999 were the first sign that not everyone saw the move towards untrammelled freedom in a positive light. One conclusion from the 9/11 attacks on New York and Washington in September 2001 was that it was not only trade and financial markets that had gone global. The collapse of the investment bank Lehman Brothers seven years later put paid to the idea that the best thing governments could do when confronted with the power of global capital was to get out of the way and let the banks supervise themselves.
Alan Greenspan is not known for his pessimism about capitalism. But even the bullish former Fed chair recognises Brexit as a major threatAlan Greenspan has seen more than a few dicey days on global markets in his time. So it was telling when the 90-year-old former chairman of the US Federal Reserve described the market chaos sparked by Britain’s leave vote as “the worst period I recallâ€.“There’s nothing like it, including the crisis – remember 19 October 1987, when the Dow went down by a record amount of 23%? That I thought was the bottom of all potential problems. This has a corrosive effect that will not go away,†Greenspan told the broadcaster CNBC. Continue reading...
In the catalogue of catastrophic misjudgments made by prime ministers, what David Cameron has done to Britain ranks very high‘Here we are, and the question is: where do we go from here?†Thus spoke one of David Cameron’s (and my) political heroes, after a crisis that bore little comparison with the ordeal that our prime minister has recently put us all through.The speaker was Harold Macmillan, a true one nation Tory; Cameron claims to be one too, but he has often been sidetracked by the appalling, rightwing, Eurosceptical element in the party he has now given up trying to lead. Continue reading...
From job insecurity and workers’ rights to European holidays – a look at the issues worrying the British publicCurrency volatility at one stage pushed sterling to a low of €1.20, 15% less than the rate that families travelling to the continent for their summer break received last year. It then recovered to €1.25, meaning that anyone who spent £500 on holidays last year will now have to spend another £68 to get the same amount of euros post-Brexit. Continue reading...
Heads of commerce groups say they do not like the uncertainty Brexit has heralded but nor do they want a rushed dealUK business leaders have cautioned against kickstarting the process to leave the EU too quickly, after European governments piled pressure on Britain to leave the bloc as soon as possible.Acknowledging that the climate of uncertainty that came with the referendum result was bad for the economy, the heads of the UK’s biggest business groups urged the government not to rush to invoke article 50 of the Lisbon treaty, which sets out what an EU country must do leave the union voluntarily.Related: What is article 50 and why is it so central to the Brexit debate?Related: EU parliament leader: we want Britain out as soon as possibleRelated: Shares down, jobs down, prices up? Business comes to terms with BrexitRelated: City of London could be cut off from Europe, says ECB official Continue reading...
by Phillip Inman, Patrick Collinson, Hilary Osborne a on (#1JBP0)
Corporate leaders have a difficult course to plot in the wake of the referendum. What are the UK’s business brains thinking?To some it is a political disaster that will bring financial Armageddon. To others, Britain’s vote to leave the EU represents a golden opportunity. Business leaders want to make the best of it, even though most wanted to remain. But the experts so derided by Michael Gove are still concerned that the uncertainty created by leaving, and the prospect of two years of negotiations to achieve a settlement, will set the UK economy back and limit its ability to recover. Continue reading...
London-based institutions could be stripped of ‘passports’ that allow them to sell services to rest of EU, says François Villeroy de GalhauThe European Central Bank has fanned fears that London could lose its status as Europe’s financial capital after warning that the Brexit vote might sever the City’s trade relationship with the EU.A top ECB official said banks in the City of London risked being stripped of their lucrative EU “passports†that allow them to sell services to the rest of the union. François Villeroy de Galhau said keeping the so-called “passport†would not be possible if the UK leaves the single market of trade in goods and services. Continue reading...
Tory MEP Daniel Hannan says Brexit voters will be ‘disappointed’ if they think there will now be zero immigration from EUThe leave campaign has appeared to row back on key pledges made during the EU referendum campaign less than 24 hours after the UK voted for Brexit, after it emerged immigration levels could remain unchanged.Leading Brexit figures had disagreed throughout the campaign on issues including immigration, free movement and the cost of the UK’s EU membership.Related: EU referendum: Pro-Brexit MEP admits free movement of labour may not end – live Continue reading...
A Brexit vote is a disaster for the economy. My party needs to rally now in defence of working people and their familiesThe Brexit vote has delivered the most enormous shock across the political system. And as the resulting market turmoil demonstrates, it is creating an enormous economic shock too. The greatest danger we face is that this event, under this Conservative government, will be felt across the whole of society and fall most heavily on the most vulnerable.Related: The dispossessed voted for Brexit. Jeremy Corbyn offers real change | Diane AbbottRelated: Grieve now if you must – but prepare for the great challenges ahead | Owen Jones Continue reading...
In pushing for Brexit, the powerful have exploited marginalised people’s fears and needs. The left must help them to take back controlDavid Cameron may soon be unemployed but, as the fallout of Britain’s EU exit begins, we can be assured it will not be the Eton class who will feel the burden.Last month, tax and spending thinktank the Institute for Fiscal Studies warned that leaving the European Union would force ministers to extend austerity measures by up to two years. It was clear: exit the EU now and by 2020, the impact of lower GDP growth and extra borrowing costs would make a £20bn-£40bn chasm in the public purse. This morning we were told the pound had immediately plummeted to a 31-year low amid the prospects of recession. In the first few minutes of trading, the FTSE 100 took its biggest fall since the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008. This can no longer be downplayed as fear. It is fact. As my colleague Owen Jones wrote: “Economic turmoil beckons: the debate is how significant and protracted it will be.â€Related: David Cameron resigns after UK votes to leave European Union Continue reading...
JP Morgan, Airbus and Ford say they will review UK operations as analysts warn of serious implications for City workforceThousands of jobs are at risk in the UK after some of the world’s largest companies warned they could relocate their British-based operations on the back of the EU referendum result.The investment bank JP Morgan, airplane maker Airbus and car manufacturers Toyota and Ford all said they will review their investments in the UK after the country voted to leave the European Union.Related: Bank of England promises £250bn to calm markets after Brexit vote - live updatesFeels strange and unsettling following the vote but we are the same, our company is the same, and our job is the same. Making people happy Continue reading...
Will Brexit be the catalyst for another financial crisis in the eurozone or the wider world economy?Mark Carney was at his soothing best. Shortly after the London stock market had opened for business, the governor of the Bank of England made a statement on what would happen now Britain had decided to exit the European Union.Having been one of the many institutions that had highlighted the risks of a vote to leave, Carney was now all calm reassurance. Banks would not run short of money, he said. The Old Lady of Threadneedle Street would collaborate with other central banks to ensure there was no market mayhem. UK banks were in much better shape than in 2008, when two of them needed an emergency cash injection from the government.Related: Wall Street joins global market sell-off as Brexit recession looms - live Continue reading...
Bank of England governor Mark Carney tries to calm fears over the markets on Friday following the UK’s vote for Brexit in the EU referendum. Saying ‘we are well prepared’ he adds the Bank of England will take any measures needed to secure economic and financial stability
Do not read too much into the City’s initial response, divorce negotiations with the EU are now the main eventThe FTSE 100 index is down about 300 points, or 4.5%, at 10am. Sterling is 7% weaker against the dollar. And 10-year gilt yields have fallen from 1.3% to close to 1%, the biggest one-day drop since 2009. These are big moves but – versus expectations – you’d call it a par score. Share prices and the pound had rallied strongly in the days before on the expectation of a vote for remain. A victory for leave – a 10% chance, according to the bookmakers, as the polls closed – couldn’t fail to provoke a strong market reaction.Related: Bank of England promises £250bn to calm markets after Brexit vote - live updatesRelated: FTSE 100 and sterling plunge on Brexit vote Continue reading...
Traders in London react to the UK’s vote to leave the EU and the prospect of recession after months of market turmoilShares plunged and the pound plummeted to a 31-year low as panicked traders reacted to the UK’s vote to leave the EU and the prospect of recession amid months of market turmoil.The FTSE 100 fell more than 8% within the first few minutes of trading on Friday, with shares in banks particularly hard hit and nursing their biggest falls since the collapse of the US investment bank Lehman Brothers in 2008.Discussed with G7 colleagues market consequences of UK's decision to leave EU. @hmtreasury and @bankofengland monitoring situation closelyRelated: Global markets plunge after UK votes to leave EU – live updatesRelated: Brexit vote leaves UK on brink of recession, economists say Continue reading...
by Katie Allen , Jill Treanor and Simon Goodley on (#1J699)
Results from across the country suggesting the Brexit camp were on the brink of declaring a referendum victory saw sterling down 10% against the dollar
Greater devolution to urban regions can help restore the loss of faith in government exposed by the referendum campaignWere the prospect of a national government led by Boris Johnson and leaned on by Nigel Farage not blood-chilling enough, the referendum campaign produced opinion poll outcomes to freeze the bones. I don’t mean those underlining how misinformed voters are about EU migration or the reach of EU law, perturbing though they were. I mean the one that found that 46% of those wanting to leave the EU thought the authorities would probably rig the result of Thursday’s vote, and that more than a quarter of them believed MI5 would be involved in the fix.Stop laughing. It’s time to cry. Conspiracy theories thrive in climates of mistrust. Maybe some of those respondents were winding the pollster up, but the leave campaign harnessed deep cynicism about politicians, governance and anyone described as “expert†into one, big, overarching assertion that the EU is one big establishment stitch-up. The notion that shadowy secret service personnel have been deployed at polling stations in order to corrupt the democratic process may be absurd. But it is out there and it is dangerous. We know what extreme actions such views can fuel. Continue reading...
Migration rules, trade and the value of the dollar could all be shaken up if Britons vote to go it aloneBritain votes on Thursday in a referendum to decide whether it should remain part of the European Union or leave.
Both sides have been guilty of negative tactics, from warning of economic disaster to focusing on the supposed threat posed by migrantsWhen it comes to voting day, what is the more potent weapon: hope or fear?Judging by rival campaigns in Britain’s imminent EU referendum, there can only be one answer. Both sides routinely accuse the other of adopting “Project Fear†tactics. There is no shortage of evidence. Continue reading...
I hoped the EU would spread social democracy. Instead it has imposed austerity to pay for an unregulated financial system. Working-class people are right to vote against itOn Thursday, despite a wobble over the horrible killing of Jo Cox and Ukip’s appalling poster, I shall be voting to leave the EU – the same way I voted in the 1975 referendum. However, there is no straight line from one to the other. I have been for many years a strong supporter of the EU and am slightly surprised to be making this choice. But an EU that is now based on mass unemployment and mass migration is not one worth supporting.Related: Of course Ukip plays the race card. But I’m still voting for Brexit | Dreda Say Mitchell Continue reading...
Presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton picked apart Donald Trump’s economic plan and financial record on Tuesday, saying that if elected president he would bankrupt America ‘like one of his casinos’. Clinton also poked at Trump’s refusal to release his tax returns, suggesting the real estate mogul ‘isn’t as rich as he claims’ Continue reading...
Central bankers from ECB and US Federal Reserve warn they are on high alert over outcome of vote, which still appears too close to callThe two most powerful central bankers have warned that they are on high alert for financial and economic fallout from the EU referendum, amid signs that the result of Thursday’s vote still hangs in the balance.On a day that saw Monday’s big rises in shares and the pound halted by polls showing the race too close to call, Mario Draghi, the president of the European Central Bank, said he was prepared to use every available tool to protect the eurozone if the UK decides to leave. Continue reading...
Federal Reserve chair says a UK vote to leave the European Union could have ‘significant economic repercussions’, including on the US’s financial outlookThe Federal Reserve signalled it was likely to hold any imminent interest rate rise on Tuesday as chair Janet Yellen warned of the impact of Britain’s possible exit from the European Union, slower job growth and global worries about China on US economic growth.Yellen has been warning of the impact of jittery investors and volatile markets over the last few months. Her comments come after two months of lackluster reports on the US jobs market and growing signs of nervousness about the UK referendum on European Union membership on US stock markets. Continue reading...
The US has a housing crisis on a scale so far unimaginable here, but new rules to restrict access to social housing put the UK on the same pathAgainst the background of the UK Housing and Planning Act, the US experience of deregulated, market-driven, privatised housing policy provides a stark warning to this country.US public housing, an approximate equivalent to UK council housing, has never been part of the mainstream. With its origins in the 1930s New Deal, it was only ever allowed to augment the private sector – never challenge it. Although there remain significant concentrations of public housing in US cities, the pejorative image of housing projects has provided political cover for under-investment and marginalisation, to the point where public housing is deemed the housing of last resort.Related: Sadiq Khan must decide who to side with: residents or developers? Continue reading...
For the current year as a whole, the chancellor is expecting the deficit to be cut by 23% to £55.5bn, so this has been a pretty unimpressive start to the yearGeorge Osborne could be history by the weekend so it is easy to see why the chancellor might have paid less attention than usual to the latest figures charting progress in reducing Britain’s budget deficit.But if the financial markets are right in their assumption that the UK will vote to stay in the EU on Thursday, it won’t be long before investors start to focus on some sticky economic problems that have not gone away while politics has been dominated by Europe.Related: Brexit uncertainty hits plans to cut budget deficit Continue reading...
Average UK household had £201 a week of discretionary income in May, up 7.2% on same month in 2015, according to reportThe “national living wage†and falling cost of food and transport have improved UK household finances, according to a report.Asda’s monthly income tracker shows that the average UK household had £201 a week of discretionary income in May. This was £13 (7.2%) more than in May 2015 and the highest amount since the supermarket started collecting income data in 2008. Continue reading...
Exclusive: Currency speculator warns devaluation would mean more disruption than when UK dropped out of ERM in 1992George Soros: the Brexit crash will make all of you poorerThe world’s most famous currency speculator has warned a vote on Thursday for Britain to leave the EU would trigger a bigger and more damaging fall for sterling than the day he forced Britain out of the Exchange Rate Mechanism almost a quarter of a century ago.George Soros, writing in the Guardian, said that a Brexit vote would spark a “black Friday†for the UK, but the devaluation of sterling would bring none of the benefits to the economy that it enjoyed after it dropped out of the ERM on 16 September 1992 – Black Wednesday.Related: The Brexit crash will make all of you poorer – be warned | George SorosRelated: The Guardian view on the EU referendum: keep connected and inclusive, not angry and isolated | EditorialRelated: Sterling guesswork as financial sector calculates Brexit effect Continue reading...
Sterling bounces back from weeks of heavy selling as traders react to apparent shift in support towards EU remain voteThe pound posted its biggest one-day rise for almost eight years and the FTSE 100 share index jumped 3% on Monday, as traders reacted to an apparent shift in support towards a remain vote in Thursday’s EU referendum.A shift in opinion polls suggesting the remain camp had regained ground was enough to send the pound soaring. After coming under heavy selling pressure in recent weeks, it rallied more than 2.3% against a basket of other big currencies, the biggest percentage gain since October 2008. It rose more than 2% against both the US dollar and the euro. Continue reading...
The British capital is strongly in favour of staying in the European Union and strongly connected with it tooIn 1975, the last time Britain held a European referendum, Londoners voted resoundingly for staying in what was then the European Economic Community. The margin was 67%-33% - a thumping 2 to 1. Yet the capital, along with other urban areas, was not the centre of pro-Europe sentiment. The shire counties of England were even keener on economic integration with their continental neighbours. London was eurosceptic by comparison.Today, it appears to be a little more eurosceptic that it was 41 years ago. And yet, unlike the rest of the country, it is still very firmly europhile. A recent poll suggested that Londoners will vote to remain in the European Union (EU) on Thursday by a 60%-40% margin, confirming that the metropolis is the most Europe-friendly part of the entire UK with the possible exception of Scotland. Continue reading...
Economists are agreed, as they never were on the euro, that quitting the EU will make Britain poorer. How strange, in an economically conservative country, that many are refusing to listenThe economic debate in British general elections has become a ritual. The manifestos are published, the Institute for Fiscal Studies pores over them and explains how, say, Conservative tax plans imply forgoing revenues of £10bn or so, or how Labour pledges on public services would require spending an extra £10bn or so instead. Each side declares a “black hole†in the finances of the other, and spends the rest of the campaign alleging that the other side has a secret plan to fill the gap with either stealthy tax rises, or the closure of NHS wards.It is never a particularly edifying argument, but it bears testament to the broad mainstream consensus about how to make Britain prosper. For the numbers involved in the tax-and-spending squabble are typically of the order of a percentage or two of government spending, or a fraction of a percent of national income. For economic radicals, this makes elections a pathetically narrow choice. For progressives, the extreme deference that has to be shown to the bean-counters’ concerns about sums which could easily get lost in the rounding of the public accounts is frustrating. British democrats on all sides, however, have learned to live with it, accepting that elections have to be fought this way, given the extreme caution of most British voters in matters financial. Continue reading...
‘Economic arguments are clearly in favour of remaining in the EU’, economics professors writeTen of the world’s leading economists have issued a warning about the consequences of the UK leaving the EU as the City prepares for the pound to plunge and shares to fall in the event of a Brexit vote in Thursday’s referendum.Related: We Nobel prize-winning economists believe the UK is better off in the EU | Letters Continue reading...
Economic issues are central to the UK referendum debate. We believe that the UK would be better off economically inside the EU. British firms and workers need full access to the single market. In addition, Brexit would create major uncertainty about Britain’s alternative future trading arrangements, both with the rest of Europe and with important markets like the USA, Canada and China. And these effects, though one-off, would persist for many years. Thus the economic arguments are clearly in favour of remaining in the EU.
Major changes to the capital’s most famous shopping street look to be on their way, though how closely they match Sadiq Khan’s manifesto promise remains to be seenSadiq Khan is not the first London mayor to pledge to transform Oxford Street from a clogged, smogged motor highway lined with shops into a clean, green avenue of retail walking therapy, but he just might be the last. That is because he just might do it - or, at least, provide the political drive to help others to take big strides in that direction.If it happens it will be, in part, because Khan will have brought the same energy and know-how to bear on the problems threatening one of the most famous shopping streets in the world that characterised his capture of City Hall. It will also be because wider circumstances have rendered continuing inaction unacceptable.Work with Westminster Council, local businesses, Transport for London and taxis to pedestrianise Oxford Street. I will start by bringing back car-free days and possibly weekends before moving towards full pedestrianisation. Our eventual ambition should be to turn one of the world’s most polluted streets into one of the world’s finest public spaces - a tree-lined avenue from Tottenham Court Road to Marble Arch. Continue reading...
Europe has been moving in a direction that rightwing Conservatives would tend to supportIt is now nearly nine years since the problems of three hedge funds heralded the arrival of global financial and economic chaos. Britain’s EU referendum this week is the latest manifestation of that crisis.That is not the way the debate in the UK has been framed. For one side, the decision is all about taking back control, especially over immigration. For the other, it is about the potential consequences for the economy in general and individuals in particular.Related: We Nobel prize-winning economists believe the UK is better off in the EU | LettersRelated: Brussels isn’t the bad guy. Tory cuts cause Britain’s troublesRelated: The humiliation of Greece is an act of economic war by the EU | Letters Continue reading...
Lack of government investment in five key areas – jobs, vacancies, wages, housing and the NHS – is the real reason we’re sufferingDon’t blame the EU for your troubles, blame Tory austerity. This is the message Labour voters should hear from Jeremy Corbyn. It is a message Ed Miliband could have made more forcefully during his term as Labour leader, when the conversation on the doorstep turned to immigration. Instead, he appeared to choke with embarrassment.Corbyn has a higher embarrassment threshold. He could look the immigration question in the eye and not blink. Unfortunately, the Islington North MP considers debating immigration off limits. Continue reading...
Economics | The Guardian